Hit or Stay

The following post is dedicated to the Mets off season plans. They could potentially spend up to $160 Million dollars and have about $80 Million available to spend. You can BET that there isn't anything worth the Wilpon's moving back towards a $200 Million payroll and I seriously doubt that Alderson even approaches $140 Million. Here is why:

Catchers: Stay

Josh Thole and Ronny Paulino are not exactly all aces. Neither is a tremendous fielder and neither is a dynamite hitter but... the Mets REALLY shouldn't be looking elsewhere for help. WHY? You ask... Take a look at the names that will be available this winter.



Rod Barajas (36)

Josh Bard (34)

Henry Blanco (40)

Ramon Castro (36)

Ryan Doumit (31)

Ramon Hernandez (36)

Jason Kendall (38)

Gerald Laird (32)

Jose Molina (36)

Dioner Navarro (28)

Ivan Rodriguez (40)

Brian Schneider (35)

Kelly Shoppach (29)

Chris Snyder (31)

Matt Treanor (36)

Jason Varitek (40)



The names that stick out are Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit and maybe Snyder and Navarro. The fact remains that NONE of these guys are heads and tails better than a Thole/Paulino tandem. Sadly we don't really have a catching prospect down the pipeline in AA or AAA (Maybe Dock Doyle but I doubt it). So... the Mets will need to wait until a top catcher becomes available OR... perhaps Albert Cordero comes up the pipeline in 2014 or later.

First Base: Stay

Ike Davis is screwing around with his recovery at this point and I'm starting to worry. With that said their is almost nothing that you could say to get me to displace him. Well... there might be one thing... but it's pretty outrageously silly. Let's look at the available players for this winter.



Lance Berkman (36)

Russell Branyan (36)

Jorge Cantu (30)

Michael Cuddyer (33)

Prince Fielder (28)

Ross Gload (36)

Brad Hawpe (33)

Casey Kotchman (29)

Mark Kotsay (36)

Derrek Lee (36)

Xavier Nady (33)

Lyle Overbay (35)

Carlos Pena (34)

Wily Mo Pena (30)

Albert Pujols (32)



Two names should clearly stick out: Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Why would the Mets consider signing one of these guys. Well there are two scenarios: 1) Sandy Alderson gets a memo from the Wilpons that he needs to bring in a NEW big ticket guy to energize the fans. He shifts Davis into the outfield and BAM! We have a new cleanup hitter. Or... 2) The Mets need a TOP pitcher and decide to trade Ike Davis in an effort to acquire one. This opens up the position for a free agent. Either way... the memo needs to come down from ownership to spend ridiculous money on a position we have cheaply filled with a talented player already.

Second Base: Stay... PROBABLY

Ruben Tejada and... REESE HAVENS?!? What happened to Justin Turner? What happened to Daniel Murphy, Jordany Valdespin, Joshua Satin and the eight other options? Mets will go with defense unless Reese proves to be READY in which case... they can go with the total package. HOWEVER... the free agents give me pause.



Alfredo Amezaga (34)

Clint Barmes (33)

Orlando Cabrera (37)

Jamey Carroll (37)

Alex Cora (36)

Craig Counsell (41)

Mark Ellis (35)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)

Aaron Hill (30) - $8MM club option for 2012 and $8MM club option for '13

Omar Infante (30)

Kelly Johnson (30)

Adam Kennedy (36)

Felipe Lopez (32)

Jose Lopez (28)

Aaron Miles (35)

Brandon Phillips (31) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout



The Reds and Brandon Phillips could conceivably part ways over the $12 Million he's owed. Assuming Phillips could be signed for something around that amount might he make sense for the Mets? It would sure be tempting. In the end... I pass and I think Alderson would as well.

Third Base: Stay (Double Down?)

Nobody is rushing to displace David. He's certainly pulled his weight since returning from the injury. Mets would even have a few internal options for third with Murphy and Lutz hanging about. As I'm doing my sue diligence... below is the list of free agent third basemen who will be hitting free agency.



Wilson Betemit (30)

Casey Blake (38)

Jorge Cantu (30)

Eric Chavez (34)

Craig Counsell (41)

Mark DeRosa (37)

Greg Dobbs (33)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)

Wes Helms (36)

Omar Infante (30)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (30)

Felipe Lopez (32)

Jose Lopez (28)

Nick Punto (34)

Aramis Ramirez (34)

Miguel Tejada (38)

Omar Vizquel (45)



Better question is if the Mets would work on signing Wright for longer term. Moving on...

Short Stop: Double Down!

Jose Reyes and an extra helping of Jose Reyes! There is NO question that the Mets NEED NEED NEED to sign Jose Reyes. Valdespin is probably not ready. Tejada is a HUGE downgrade and Jose is one of the most love members of the team. There aren't exactly great options out there anyway...



Clint Barmes (33)

Yuniesky Betancourt (30)

Orlando Cabrera (37)

Jamey Carroll (37)

Ronny Cedeno (29)

Craig Counsell (41)

Rafael Furcal (34)

Alex Gonzalez (34)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)

Omar Infante (30)

Cesar Izturis (32)

John McDonald (37)

Nick Punto (34)

Edgar Renteria (35)

Jose Reyes (29)

Jimmy Rollins (33)

Ramon Santiago (32)

Miguel Tejada (38)

Jack Wilson (34)



Obviously there is only one name on the list who sniffs the value of Reyes and that would be Rollins. Here is the problem: He's 3 years older and already clearly in his decline. So... Reyes! He's going to cost a lot of money but he's the only legitimate option in multiple ways.

Left Field: Fold

Bay makes too much not to play but it's not like I'm excited about it. He'll have Evans to back him up and FRANKLY... I hope Collins sits bay frequently if he doesn't start to produce. How does one get a Canadian to improve his game? Maple syrup? Hockey? Politeness? I don't see much point to listing free agents, but here goes...



Pat Burrell (35)

Johnny Damon (37)

Mark DeRosa (37)

Jonny Gomes (31)

Carlos Guillen (36)

Scott Hairston (32)

Bill Hall (32) - $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout

Willie Harris (34)

Raul Ibanez (40)

Conor Jackson (30)

Reed Johnson (35)

Ryan Ludwick (33)

Jason Michaels (36)

Laynce Nix (31)

Juan Pierre (34)

Scott Podsednik (36)

Juan Rivera (33)

Marcus Thames (35)

Josh Willingham (33)



Josh Willingham, Laynce Nix and Ryan Ludwick would all be fine, but as I said... too much money is tied into Bay to buy a replacement.

Center Field: Play a Second Hand

Angel Pagan is still cheap enough to retain. HOWEVER... the Mets DO have Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt Den Dekker waiting in the wings and should Pagan stumble let us not forget that he makes a dynamite 4th OF. Kirk is hurt and needs to rehab to get back into form but I expect him to be part of the discussion. If not one of them, is there a free agent upgrade that might strike our fancy?



Rick Ankiel (32)

Carlos Beltran (35)

Mike Cameron (39)

Coco Crisp (32)

David DeJesus (32)

Scott Hairston (32)

Andruw Jones (35)

Nate McLouth (30)

Corey Patterson (32)

Cody Ross (31)

Grady Sizemore (29) - $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout



BELTRAN! NOT FOR CENTER FIELD! Beyond him, I suppose Sizemore is at least interesting but I don't think that the Mets should waste money on a position they don't necessarily need. I happen to think that Den Dekker is the center fielder of the future right now.

Right Field: Stay... PROBABLY

Why do I keep hedging my bets? In the cases of right field and second base the Mets COULD stay with what they got OR they could go with a more proven entity. I'm slotting Duda in for right on my depth charts but have to give Fernando Martinez an outside chance if he wows in the spring. Who might we get who could be better?



Lance Berkman (36)

Milton Bradley (34)

Michael Cuddyer (33)

David DeJesus (32)

J.D. Drew (36)

Kosuke Fukudome (35)

Willie Harris (34)

Brad Hawpe (33)

Jason Kubel (29)

Ryan Ludwick (33)

Xavier Nady (33)

Magglio Ordonez (38)

Cody Ross (31)

Nick Swisher (31)

Josh Willingham (33)



A bunch of names jump out at me. A pair of twins: Cuddyer and Kubel, Ludwick, Ross, Swisher and Willingham. However the biggest potential on the list belongs to Lance Berkman. NOW... I don't think the Puma would love playing his home games in Citi Field and though I lucked into Lance in my fantasy draft I'm sure not keeping him. SO... Do one of these options make sense. I have to say maybe because if the Mets are only signing Reyes and some filler pitching getting a veteran bat for right field might be a solid play.

Starting Pitching: Hit Me!

Johan SHOULD be back. Niese, Dickey and Gee should be back as well... but I'm done with Pelfrey. I think MOST Met fans are. So that leaves one pitching spot open and I don't exactly want to give it to Schwinden or Generation 2K just yet. Question is do the Mets go BIG or little with their signing. There are only a handful of options that could remotely be called front-of-the-rotation options. There are tons of secondary ones and there's a few guys that fall in the middle. Who is out there?





Erik Bedard (33)

Mark Buehrle (33)

Chris Capuano (33)

Chris Carpenter (37) - $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Bruce Chen (35)

Bartolo Colon (39)

Aaron Cook (33)

Kyle Davies (28)

Doug Davis (36)

Jeff Francis (30)

Freddy Garcia (36)

Aaron Harang (34)

Rich Harden (30)

Livan Hernandez (37)

Hisashi Iwakuma (31)

Edwin Jackson (28)

Kenshin Kawakami (37)

Scott Kazmir (28)

Hiroki Kuroda (37)

Rodrigo Lopez (36)

Paul Maholm (30)

Jason Marquis (33)

Kevin Millwood (37)

Sergio Mitre (31)

Roy Oswalt (34)

Brad Penny (34)

Oliver Perez (30)

Joel Pineiro (33)

Javier Vazquez (35)

Adam Wainwright (30) - $10MM vesting option for '12, $12MM for '13

Tim Wakefield (45)

Chien-Ming Wang (32)

Brandon Webb (33)

Dontrelle Willis (30)

C.J. Wilson (31)

Chris Young (33)

Yu Darvish (25) International Posting Rights Required



Let us count the pitchers who I'd put in the front half of the Met rotation: Yu Darvish, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright (Probably not a FA), Erik Bedard, and C.J. Wilson. Now let us list the issues:



Yu Darvish - Is the biggest target and costs an arm and a leg just to SPEAK with him.



Chris Carpenter - Don't trust pitchers over 35.



Adam Wainwright - He's not going to be a free agent.



Erik Bedard - Made of glass and full of cracks.



C.J. Wilson - He's the consistent option every other team will hone in on.



If it's my team I go after Yu Darvish. It makes too much sense considering the fact that the other pitchers are older and have more issues. It's not Alderson's style and the Wilpon's could be avoiding putting that kind of money into the team. If I missed on Darvish, I'd take a stab at Bedard. OR... bring back Chris Young.

Closer: Hit Me!

Bobby Parnell has an electric arm and Beato might be one of the best Rule 5 picks of the season but Alderson knows about supply and demand. The demand for closers is only mediocre and there happens to be a glut of possibilities on the market. Wanna see who?



Heath Bell (34)

Jonathan Broxton (28)

Matt Capps (28)

Francisco Cordero (37) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Frank Francisco (32)

Brad Lidge (35)

Joe Nathan (37)

Jonathan Papelbon (31)

Francisco Rodriguez (30)

Rafael Soriano (32) - $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout

Jose Valverde (34) - $9MM club option, no buyout



Bell, Papelbon and K-Rod will likely still cost some money to get and I'd avoid them but a guy like Broxton or Capps who is less proven won't cost the team a ton in terms of contract or time commitment. PLUS having Parnell etc... in the pen gives the Mets a more complete bullpen.

Bullpen: Stay... Maybe a LOOGY

The bullpen is actually pretty good. We have some guys who can go a few innings. Some guys who can go every day. Some setup arms and a few lefty options. Parnell is best suited to being a dominant middle reliever. Beato is not REALLY a close in my eyes. Buchholz (He's arb eligible and I like him) is a dynamic setup guy. Accosta is better than a lot of his critics would have you believe. D.J. Carrasco is a workhorse who hasn't been BAD for the Mets in 2011. Mike O'Connor is in the farm and likely about as good as most of the lefty bullpen options. That isn't a BAD crew of relievers for the Mets to work with. In fact, I think it would make them competetive with the types of bullpens I've seen throughout baseball. Now... I'm not sold on O'Connor and there are other good arms available through free agency. Let's take a look...



Right-handed relievers

Luis Ayala (34)

Danys Baez (34)

Miguel Batista (41)

Shawn Camp (36)

Todd Coffey (31)

Juan Cruz (31)

Octavio Dotel (38) - $3.75MM club option with a $750K buyout

Chad Durbin (34)

Kyle Farnsworth (36) - $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout

Jason Frasor (34) - $3.75MM club option

LaTroy Hawkins (37)

Aaron Heilman (33)

Ryota Igarashi (33)

Jason Isringhausen (39)

Scott Linebrink (35)

Mike MacDougal (35)

Ryan Madson (31)

Guillermo Mota (38)

Ramon Ortiz (39)

Micah Owings (29)

Vicente Padilla (34)

Joel Peralta (36)

Chad Qualls (33)

Fernando Rodney (35)

Takashi Saito (42)

Yoshinori Tateyama (36) - $1MM club option

Dan Wheeler (34) - $3MM club option with no buyout

Kerry Wood (35)

Jamey Wright (37)

Michael Wuertz (33) - $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Joel Zumaya (27)

Left-handed relievers

Jeremy Affeldt (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Tim Byrdak (38)

Mike Gonzalez (34)

John Grabow (33)

Javier Lopez (34)

Damaso Marte (37) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Hideki Okajima (36) - can opt for free agency

Darren Oliver (41)

Arthur Rhodes (41) - $4MM club option with a $200K buyout

J.C. Romero (36)

George Sherrill (35)

Brian Tallet (34)



There are plenty of names that might be upgrades but I'm not sold on the need to spend money. I'd happily take a run at any of those lefties though.



There's a lot here and plenty I'm sure you don't agree with. The reason I posted it like this is so other people could make their own decisions by position. You may notice I sometimes removed guys who had options and I sometimes didn't show the options at all. I did this to save space and time. Some players, like Eric Hinske have options that are VERY easy for the team to pick up. Some players, like Scott Kazmir have VERY hard options for anyone to ever consider. I removed what I saw as fluff.