Why Mets Fans Shouldn't Get Too Attached to Lucas Duda

(On edit, I wrote this piece before Duda hit the wall tonight. I do not mean this in poor taste and I wish The Dude a speedy recovery.)

As I mentioned two days ago, I think it’s pretty obvious that Lucas Duda will be starting in the OF for the Mets next year. I also think that 2012 will be his last with the Mets.

If the Mets were an AL team, they could just slot Duda into the DH role and hope that he becomes the second coming of David Ortiz. Over his last 200 AB's, his hitting at about a .320 BA / .950 OPS and is on pace for 30 HRs and over 100 RBI. However, they play in the NL and Duda’s only true spot is 1B, a position locked down by Ike Davis. Davis projects to be as solid a hitter as Duda and plays very good defense. It has yet to be seen over the course of a full season, but Duda’s troubles in the outfield could wind up affecting him at the plate. He wouldn’t be the first player whose defensive shortcomings brought down the rest of his game. Even if this does not prove to be the case, the overall structure and needs of the team going forward could render him a luxury and expendable, especially given his lack of defensive ability in the OF.

Reese Havens and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are 2 LH hitters on the verge of breaking through to the Mets. Havens (if he stays healthy) figures to be an above-average offensive 2B. Nieuwenhuis, while he might not be the hitter that Duda can be, has the look of a complete offensive player. It’s not out of the question to envision a (albeit incomplete) lineup in 2013 looking something like:

SS Reyes

OF ---

3B Wright

1B Davis

OF ---

2B Havens

Ca ---

OF Nieuwenhuis

As it stands, that lineup features homegrown and under-control talent. It is also affordable and leaves budget room to add one or two more ‘feature’ bats from the free agent or trade markets. Although the Dude provides pop, a quality lineup can be constructed without him.

As mentioned in my previous posting on pitching, the Mets are likely going to need 2 very good major league pitchers to round out a rotation with their prospects. Although the team will likely be active in the free agent market, they’re going to have to be active in the trade market as well. Duda will provide the Mets with a very attractive trade piece to a team looking for a power-hitting 1B. Tampa Bay comes to mind (among others) who could use a 1B/DH and might have some pitching to trade..

In addition to needing pitching, the Mets are likely to add another ‘bopper’ from outside the organization – someone who can really drive in a lot of runs. That type of hitter will have to be added in the outfield. The infield will likely be locked down at all 4 positions and the outfield is the ‘easiest’ place to add an impact bat. If things were to go my way, the Mets would be able to sign Matt Kemp, have him hit 3^rd and bump Wright down to 5^th.

Of course, some fans might argue that Duda could become that impact bat and that the Mets should build form within wherever possible. I understand that, both from a budget standpoint as well as from a fan’s. Unfortunately for Duda-lovers out there, the team needs pitching, will likely have to trade for it, and can replace Duda – their likely most valuable trade piece. If he could play decently in the OF, he’d be a key part of the core going forward. As it stands, he’s a nice player that we’ll likely watch put up good numbers for another team for the majority of his career.