Leake to Majors

The Reds made a surprise announcement this week, handing the #5 spot in their starting pitching rotation to 2009 1st-round draft pick Mike Leake. Leake will become the 21st player in history to begin his professional career in the MLB and skip the minors completely. Leake, 22, dominated in college and in the Arizona Fall League last season, but I was still shocked at the news.

If there is someone up to the task, however, it is Leake. Though he is an unimposing 5-11 and sits around 89-91 mph with his fastball, Leake is polished beyond his years. The Arizona State product has strong command of four pitches and changes speeds deftly to keep hitters off balance. Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker is notorious for shredding pitchers' arms, which is concerning, but on the bright side Leake threw 160+ innings last season and has the clean, athletic delivery to avoid arm problems. It would be foolish to have extremely high expectations for a pitcher one year removed from NCAA competition and playing his home games in a homer-happy ballpark, but I think Leake will be able to hold his own (sub-5.00 xFIP?). The Reds believe they will contend, and time will tell if Leake is a better 2010 option than fellow 5th-starter candidates such as Travis Wood and Micah Owings. Long-term, Leake will be a strong, dependable mid-rotation starter.

Mike Leake

*Thanks to Adam Foster for this photo. Check out ProjectProspect.com.

2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com

State of the System: Cincinnati Reds

Quick Look

Cincinnati has several interesting young pieces: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Drew Stubbs, and others. As a middle-of-the-road small-market team, though, everything needs to break right for them to make a playoff run. Their farm system, which was plentiful a couple years back, has taken steps backward. They aren't the Pirates, and they are doing some things right, but I don't think the Reds are quite ready to get over the hump. We'll see if the next wave of prospects helps.

Top Prospects

Yonder Alonso, 1B

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Alonso, the 8th overall draft pick last year, has an advanced bat, but was unfortunately sidelined much of this year with a hand injury. Assuming he regains his strength, he'll produce a .300 average with 30 homers and bushels of bases on balls. Alonso is anchored to first, so he may push Votto (who is incredible, by the way) to left field. Alonso will start 2010 in Triple-A (where he spent the playoffs this year), trying to prove he can hit top-flight pitching as well as he has punished its mediocre counterpart.

Todd Frazier, 3B/LF

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Frazier uses an unorthodox approach to get offensive results. He has posted an .800 OPS or better at five levels of the minors. The former Rutgers shortstop is big at 6-3, 215, but he'd profile well at third base. He projects for 20+ homers, and his good instincts and moderate athleticism make him a serviceable defensive player. The Reds brass has mishandled him, though, shifting him all over the diamond and not taking the time to let him master a position. I like him better than Juan Francisco, and Frazier deserves to take over the hot corner in Cincinnati next year. He's everyday-regular material.

Mike Leake, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-Double-A

Leake is hands-down my favorite prospect. The athletic righty had an epic career at Arizona State, setting numerous Sun Devil pitching records, leading the team to Omaha twice, and completing a junior season that ranks as one of the best single-season college pitching performances ever. Leake isn't an elite pro prospect, as he is just 6-0 and his fastball doesn't exceed the 88-93 mph range. He does enough right, however, to project as a future mid-rotation starter, if not an ace. Leake is durable and has a compact delivery, commands his fastball with excellent sink, throws several quality offspeed pitches at will, attacks batters aggressively, and has superb makeup. I'm eager to watch him translate his skills to pro ball.

Chris Heisey, of

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Heisey was on the path to becoming a teacher until the Reds took a flier on him out of tiny Messiah College. He has since rocketed to Triple-A, showing off a well-rounded, if not flashy game, and nabbing an appearance in the Futures Game this year. Heisey is a solid outfielder who can play all three spots adequately. He makes consistent contact at the plate and has decent power. He is a smart baserunner, and his instincts and plus makeup make all facets of his game play up. Heisey will be 25 next year, and doesn't project as a star. He is knocking on the door to the big leagues, though, and I wouldn't bet against him carving out a role as a regular.

Travis Wood, lhp

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Wood had a breakthrough season, leading the minors in ERA a year after he looked like he'd fizzled out in Double-A. The pint-sized lefty tops out at 90 mph and sits at 87-88, but he commands the inner half, has a terrific changeup, and has added a cutter for another weapon. His ceiling is a #4 or #5 starter, and he should get a shot in Cincinnati next year.

Brad Boxberger, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-High A

Boxberger, who signed for $857,000 this year, had an uneven career at USC, dominating as the Trojans' ace at times while floundering in the bullpen at others. The best-case scenario for him is a mid-rotation starter, as his fastball hits 94 (and sits a few ticks lower), and his curveball, slider, and changeup have potential. Boxberger profiles better as a reliever for me, given his command and inconsistency. A sturdy 6-footer, Boxberger will require roughly two years of minor league seasoning.

Juan Francisco, 3B

Age: 22 Level: MLB

Francisco is one of the most well-known, polarizing prospects in the game. His gargantuan raw power (75 homers the last 3 years with more in the tank) and cannon arm give him tantalizing upside. The Dominican-born lefty-hitter has also made some strides in becoming more consistent as well. For all of his talent, though, Francisco has no clue how to control the strike zone (72-442 career MiLB BB-K ratio in 1800 ABs), portending perennial .300-.315 OBPs when major league pitchers exploit his aggressive nature. His big body and lumbering actions make him sticking at third unfeasible. Francisco will undoubtedly have a major league career, but so did Wily Mo Pena.

Daniel Tuttle, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

A 2009 draftee, Tuttle showed his value with a power run in his GCL debut. He has been knocked for troublesome mechanical flaws in his delivery, but it looks fine to me. Tuttle has a power arm, with a fastball often ranging from 90-94 mph, a slider that shows plus potential, and a rudimentary changeup. He'll presumably tackle the Midwest League next year, and gauge whether he fits better in the rotation or bullpen. Either way he's one of the better young arms that the Reds have.

Donnie Joseph, lhp

Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A

Lefties with arm strength rarely go unnoticed, and the Reds selected Joseph in the 3rd round this year after he made great strides during the spring. Joseph reached Low A in his debut, showing a high ceiling, and also some wildness. Besides his 90-93 mph fastball, the former Houston Cougar throws a biting slider that makes him more than a lefty specialist. He does need to hone his control, but assuming he stays in his current bullpen role, Joseph will rise rapidly.

Yorman Rodriguez, of

Age: 17 Level: Rookie-Low A

Rodriguez received one of the largest bonuses for a Latin American amateur ever in 2008, taking home $2.5 million. He has hours of work to do with the bat to justify that investment. Rodriguez flails at offspeed pitches and the all-important hit tool is easily his weakest. He is swift (in the field and on the basepaths), has a plus arm, and even has some raw power. Rodriguez is a high-upside, high-risk project who could take 5 more years in the minors--putting his MLB debut at age 22.

Others: RHPs Kyle Lotzkar and J.C. Sulbaran; SSs Zack Cozart and Chris Valaika; 3B Neftali Soto

Impact Talent: C

Farm System Depth: C-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Mariekson Gregorius, ss

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

The Dutch-born Gregorius sprays hits all around the field from the left side. He has athleticism and speed, and should be able to stick at short. Gregorius doesn't have much power at this stage and needs time to refine his skills. After batting.314/.363/.387 in the Pioneer League this year, he will be very interesting to watch progress next year.

Top Talents Get Top Dollar as Negotiations Go Down to the Wire

Last night (midnight ET) was the deadline for 2009 draft picks to sign a professional contract, meaning many of the best amateurs in the nation are watching the ink dry on multi-million dollar bonuses. All but two first-rounders eventually came to an agreement with their clubs. (That doesn't include #12 pick Aaron Crow, who, as an indy leaguer, has extra time.) Scott Boras Corp. clients had particularly contentious negotiations, but once again Boras came out a winner. Boras clients set records for the richest overall deal ever, the top bonus for a high school player ever, and the highest bonus handed to a prep pitcher. Here's some of the biggest news from the last few days. (As always, Baseball America's Draft Database has a complete list of the bonuses and signees.)

• #1 pick Stephen Strasburg, after months of speculation, accepted a major league deal including a $7.5 million bonus and $15.1 million guaranteed. He had been rumored to be seeking much more than that, but the pact is still the richest of all time. Strasburg couldn't possibly have gained any more leverage by rejecting the Nats' offer, so he wisely accepted the figure. Now we'll see if he can live up to expectations and turn a franchise around single-handedly.
• Rangers 1st-rounder Matt Purke, a high school lefty who went 14th overall, was one of two 1st-rounders to not sign. Purke will take his overpowering fastball-breaking ball package to TCU, where he will be draft-eligible after 2 years.
• LeVon Washington couldn't come to terms with the Rays as the #30 overall pick, either. That would seem to make the speedy 2B/OF ticketed for Florida, but apparently he doesn't qualify academically, so I guess we'll see what happens.
• Dustin Ackley (Mariners, 2nd overall) garnered an MLB contract with a $6 million signing bonus and $7.5 million guaranteed. The smooth-swinger also has salary incentives for how quickly he reaches the major leagues. Seattle also got high school infielder Nick Franklin, their other 1st-rounder, for $1.28 million over the weekend.
  
• Donavan Tate, a high school outfielder from Georgia who went third overall, signed a $6.25 million deal with the Padres (that is spread out over 4 years because he is a multi-sport athlete). That is the largest bonus ever handed to a high school player. Earlier, San Diego gave 52nd overall pick Everett Williams $775,000 and 4th-rounder Keyvius Sampson $600,000. The trio spurned UNC, Texas, and Florida State, respectively.
• The Rockies capped off a superb draft by signing 11th overall pick Tyler Matzek for $3.9 million. A 6-3 lefty with incredible upside, Matzek had been headed to Oregon. Colorado got 3 1st-round talents--Matzek, 30th pick Tim Wheeler (OF, Sacramento State), and 32nd pick Rex Brothers (LHP, Lipscomb)--as well as several other sound picks. That'll give the farm system a nice boost.
• San Francisco's #1 pick, RHP Zack Wheeler, netted a $3.3 million bonus as the 6th overall selection.
• The Tigers spent big on a couple of Scott Boras clients, giving them one of the better draft hauls in the industry. Their top pick, Missouri high school RHP Jacob Turner, received a major league contract that includes a $4.7 million signing bonus and $5.5 million in guaranteed money (making it the largest contract ever for a high school hurler). Turner, who had been committed to North Carolina, has touched the upper-90s and flashed a nice curve and change. Detroit also gave 2nd-rounder Andy Oliver, an Oklahoma State lefty, $1.425 million. Prep shortstop Daniel Fields (6th round) signed for $1.625 million.
• Shelby Miller, a fireballing Texas righthander, signed an above-slot $2.875 bonus and instantly became the Cardinals' best prospect.
• The Indians locked up #15 pick Alex White with a $2.25 million signing bonus. White is a power righty out of North Carolina.
• The Reds spent over $3 million to sign their top two picks. Arizona State RHP Mike Leake, the 8th overall pick, took home $2.27 million and USC RHP Brad Boxberger, a supplemental-rounder, got $857,000.
• I wasn't blown away by the Marlins' effort, but at least they did come to terms with all of their top choices, particularly high school hurlers Chad James ($1.7 million) and Bryan Berglund ($572,500).
  
• The Blue Jays were aggressive in getting 3rd-rounder Jake Marisnick, an athletic high school outfielder from California, to sign for $1 million, but they had snafus with a trio of their other top picks. Supplemental-round LHP James Paxton will return to Kentucky, and high school pitchers Jake Eliopoulos (2nd round) and Jake Barrett (3rd round) will head to college. That's an extremely disappointing draft for Toronto, who didn't exactly have a thriving farm system in the first place.
• The Twins signed 1st-rounder Kyle Gibson for $1.8 million despite concerns over his health. Gibson, who has a stress fracture in his forearm, will be a steal if he regains his stuff--he could've been a top-10 pick if not for the injury.
• The Yankees signed their 1st-round pick, high school outfielder Slade Heathcott, for $2.2 million. New York also picked up prep catcher J.R. Murphy (supplemental-rounder) and Vanderbilt RHP Caleb Cotham (5th-rounder) for $1.25 million and $675,000, respectively.
• The A's doled out some huge bonuses, cementing their draft class as one of the finest in the game. 1st-rounder Grant Green, a shortstop from USC, got $2.75 million, while top high school catcher Max Stassi received $1.5 million. Ian Krol (7th round), a high school lefty, got $925,000 to sign with Oakland. Stassi had committed to UCLA, while Krol was an Arizona recruit.
  
• Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis, a sophomore-eligible Boras client (double whammy), inked a deal with the Brewers. Davis had an up-and-down spring, but still got $1.2 million (well above slot for the 39th overall pick).
• LSU took a blow when touted recruit Brody Colvin signed with Philadelphia (for $900,000). A power righthander, Colvin gives the Phillies' weak draft class a necessary boost. His bonus was the third highest in the 7th round.
• The Mets had a pretty awful draft, but they did sign 2 of their best picks. LHP Steven Matz, New York's first choice and the #72 overall pick, received $895,000 to forgo Coastal Carolina and 14th-round LHP Zach Dotson got $500,000 to pass up Georgia. That was about it, though. A big-market organization in dire need of a talent injection, New York completely and epically failed this year.
• The Rays handed prep 1B Jeff Malm (5th round) $680,000 and prep outfielder Todd Glaesmann (3rd round) $930,000. Tampa Bay was not so fortunate with its first two picks, though, as Washington and Stanford recruit Kenny Diekroeger went unsigned. That's kind of a rough draft for TB, as Malm, Glaesmann, and C Luke Bailey (4th round) are three of their only draftees whom I actually like.
• With Crow still yet to sign, major league clubs have spent over $160 million on the first 10 rounds of the draft this year, about the same as last year (a team-by-team look is available here). The Nationals also set the record for the most money sunk into a single draft class. Looks like MLB's misguided attempts to keep bonuses down are failing miserably.

Now the draft is finalized, we can begin to gauge teams' efforts (although it takes years to give them a proper final assessment). I think the Diamondbacks and Rockies had the top two drafts (taking draft position into consideration--the Nationals obviously collected the most talent), and I think the Mets and Blue Jays acquired next to nothing. Now that we know which college recruits were successfully shepherded through the draft and which ones were snatched up by pro ball, I will have a complete wrap-up of the top recruiting classes coming up.

Dustin Ackley

*Photo courtesy of www.seattlepi.com

Intriguing Day 1 Complete

The first day of the draft has come to a close. What a fantastic night it was! There were tons of incredible picks, and also some head-scratchers. It's definitely the best day of the year, and there is more left to come. Tomorrow starts with Round 4, and Thursday will have the last 20 rounds or so. Here is the complete database of picks so far. It's obviously very, very early, but I tentatively think the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Brewers started out well, while the Phillies, Pirates, and Mets whiffed on their first couple picks. There is much more to play out tomorrow and Thursday. Here are some of the things I noticed on Day 1.

• No surprise up top. Stephen Strasburg went #1 as projected for the last 18 months, and North Carolina 1B Dustin Ackley went to Seattle at #2. I really don't think the gap is as stratospheric as it seems between the two. Strasburg is better than Ackley and probably the top prospect in baseball, but an injury could derail his career a la Mark Prior, and he needs to develop a changeup and adapt to pro hitters who have seen velocity before (albeit nothing like Strasburg's level). Ackley is has otherworldly bat control and he should be an outfielder who challenges for batting titles. It's not unfathomable that Ackley ends up better than Strasburg. Those two are far ahead of anyone else in this draft class.
• The Padres took a couple of players completely different than their organizational prototype. San Diego usually goes for college strike-throwers or polished batters with good plate discipline. They grabbed a pair of big-time high school athletes today, though, with Donavan Tate at #3 and Everett Williams at #52. That should infuse some life and upside into the system, but I think better talents were available at those spots.
• It just never ends for the Pirates. They seemed to be turning it around (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, etc.), but they made some major gaffes with their selections today. Boston College C Tony Sanchez was their first choice; he went 4th overall. Sanchez has great makeup and defensive skills, but his bat is not a guarantee despite the great year he had. I like Sanchez, but more in the 25-35 range. #4 overall? That just seems like a cost-cutting measure for the Bucs. Again. Victor Black (supplemental), Brooks Pounders (2), and Evan Chambers (3) with the next 3 picks certainly doesn't enthrall me. I guess we'll see, but my gut reaction is that the Pirates could have gotten some better value.
• A couple of Mikes (Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor and ASU RHP Mike Leake) went 7th and 8th, respectively. That is way too rich for those two. They both pitch in the 88-91 mph neighborhood and throw strikes with a curve, slider, and changeup. They are proven, polished college hurlers whom I like a ton. With a top 10 pick, though, you should probably be getting some more upside. With that said, Minor and Leake are underrated; I like their chances to be mid-rotation starters.
• I absolutely love Colorado's first-day haul. Prep pitcher Tyler Matzek was perhaps the third-best talent, and the Rockies got him at #11. The 6-3 lefty throws in the low-90s with minimal effort, and he has touched 97 recently. He has advanced secondary stuff for a high schooler (including a knee-buckling curveball) and a feel for pitching. That's outstanding for a first-round pick, but the Rockies didn't stop there. They nabbed Sacramento State OF Tim Wheeler, a middle-of-the-first-round talent, at #32; college lefty Rex Brothers, who might end up in the bullpen but works in the mid-90s with a sharp slider, in the sandwich round; Nolan Arenado, a hard-hitting prepster who could potentially move behind the plate, in the second round; and Clemson 1B Ben Paulsen, a solid hitter who could get some inflated numbers playing for the Rockies. That's an encouraging first day.
• The Diamondbacks got a fresh batch of great prospects today. That's not hard with 8 picks in the first 3 rounds. I like powerful high school corner infielders Bobby Borchering (1) and Matt Davidson (1s), all-around Notre Dame CF A.J. Pollock (1), college high-upside arms Mike Belfiore (1s) and Eric Smith (2), pummeling collegian Marc Krauss (2), and perhaps prep infielder Chris Owings (1s). I have gotten some mixed reviews on Owings, but also a Gordon Beckham comp, so I'm not giving up on that. Arizona needed an injection of talent, as their farm system has thinned with the graduation of Justin Upton, Chris Young, Max Scherzer, etc. to the majors.
• It looks like clubs were scared off by Tanner Scheppers' shoulder issues, as the former Fresno State ace lasted until #44 for the Rangers. He has arguably the second best pure stuff in the draft (mid- to high-90s fastball and biting curve), so Texas at the very least has a lot to work with in their supplemental-rounder.
• Robert Stock unexpectedly got drafted as a catcher. The 19-year-old USC junior has been extremely disappointing with the bat after being a decorated prep catcher, so I thought a team would take him as a pitcher. He looks promising on the mound. It sounds like Stock could return for his senior year. He could go very high if he continues to pitch well next year for the Trojans.
  
• Three other pitcher-or-hitter debates were solved today, two of them by the Dodgers. LA selected Baylor's Aaron Miller as a LHP (he is inexperienced on the mound, but also has serious arm strength) and Cal's Blake Smith as a RHP. There were many better options available to the Dodgers at those spots. I'm surprised how weak those picks were, though scouting director Logan White has a great track record, so he may know something that I don't. Florida prepster Mychal Givens also went as a pitcher. That's surprising, as he had good actions at short and projects as a reliever if he's a pitcher. (UPDATE: The Orioles actually botched the announcement. Givens will play short for them.) Back to the Dodgers, I liked their last two picks, prep RHP Garrett Gould and junior college RHP Brett Wallach.
• I'm surprised HS OF Randal Grichuk went in the first round. His R-R profile and relative lack of tools other than the bat apparently weren't a concern for the Angels. Tyler Skaggs, a projectable high school lefty, was who I thought they'd take in that slot. They still nabbed Skaggs with the 40th overall pick.
• Well the Phillies sure had an awful first night. Modest-ceilinged OF Kelly Dugan (who is strongly committed to Pepperdine) and lethargic OF Kyrell Hudson? You have to improve on that.
• I also wasn't blown away by the Mets' effort. Steven Matz is a live-armed lefty who can run it up to 94, but he is very raw and will take some time. I thought he'd be better served to head to Coastal Carolina for a few years. Florida Southern infielder Robbie Shields, their next pick, has some hitting ability and pop, but he's a bit underwhelming to be one of the headliners of a team's draft.
• Large-market powers Boston and New York both went slightly off the board with their first picks. The Red Sox took Puerto Rican OF Reymond Fuentes (a relative of Carlos Beltran who has game-changing speed and profiles as a starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter, but who needs to get stronger) and the Yankees popped OF Slade Heathcott, a gifted (five tools at times) but volatile prep star. It's a push as to which of the rivals got the better outfielder.
• I loved the Alex White pick for the Indians. If he can get over his injuries and inconsistency, and pitch like his postseason self more often, he'll be a great pitcher. As it is, he can light up radar guns with 91-94 mph heat that he sometimes kicks up to 96-97. He also owns a splitter and a slider, both of which can be out pitches. I am lower than others on White, since he sometimes loses command or doesn't dominate despite his electric stuff, but getting that caliber of arm at #15 is a steal.
• I also loved how the Twins stole Kyle Gibson. The Missouri righty commands an average fastball, changeup, and wicked, 82-85 mph slider. He also has room to grow into his projectable frame and start throwing harder. His recent stress fracture clouded his draft status, but if Gibson can rest up and overcome that, Minnesota got a top 10 talent near the back of the first round.
• I'm mildly disappointed by my favorite team's initial selections. The White Sox drafted OF Jared Mitchell, C Josh Phegley, OF Trayce Thompson, LHP David Holmberg, and LHP Bryan Morgado. I do like Mitchell, an LSU standout, as a high-risk, high-reward player. He draws a good share of walks, steals all kinds of bases, has great athleticism, and occasionally shows glimpses of power. He might struggle with strikeouts, but the Sox desperately need a centerfielder, and Mitchell could be a good start. The other picks aren't so great. All of Phegley's value is tied up in his bat (he is a poor defensive catcher), which isn't all that spectacular for a supplemental-rounder. Thompson has tools galore, but there's a fat chance that he'll put them all together. Holmberg sounds promising, but last I heard he was set on attending Florida. Maybe he could be good if the Sox find a way to sign him. Morgado has power stuff but constantly battles inconsistency, and was moved to the pen at Tennessee. Chicago's track record of straightening out power arms and bringing the best out of them (think Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, and Gavin Floyd) is the best hope for Morgado.
• Grant Green could be a steal at #13 for the A's. I have always been the low man on Green, and his down draft year fueled some others to come over to my point of view. He has made some careless errors at short, not taken a ton of walks, and not lived up to his home run/power expectations. Nonetheless this is a potential five-tool shortstop that Oakland is getting. If it all clicks, he's Troy Tulowitzki with a better bat. Even when he got draftitis, Green managed to hit about .370. I never thought Green was in the class of, say, Dustin Ackley, but I definitely like him at #13. Great value pick for the A's.
• As promised, the catcher position was a strong point for today. Eight backstops (3 college, 5 high school) were selected, and many more remain for tomorrow.
• The top overall remaining players for tomorrow include high schoolers Max Stassi (C), Brody Colvin (RHP), Madison Younginer (RHP), Zach Von Rosenberg (RHP), Keyvius Sampson (RHP), and Jeff Malm (1B), and collegians Sam Dyson (RHP), Chris Dwyer (LHP), Angelo Songco (OF), Brooks Raley (LHP), Ryan Jackson (SS), and Kendal Volz (RHP). There is a lot more talent to be had.
• Gotta love when the Astros, one of the lamest teams in the majors, have a bad draft. Houston had a good one last year to follow their '07 failure of epic proportions, so hopefully this year will screw up their system some more. Jiovanni Mier was a surprise first-round pick. The prep shortstop has a sound glove, but needs to improve his bat. RHP Tanner Bushue, the Stros' second-rounder, is an Illinois prepster who isn't overwhelming (88-90 mph with passable secondary stuff and some projection). 1B Telvin Nash is just a bad third-round pick, and Jonathan Meyer is good and versatile, but also inclined to head off to Cal State Fullerton. I'm hoping none of these prospects pan out for the Astros.
• Scott Boras and signability are going to have some crazy ramifications on this year's draft. Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate all are advised by the super-agent (and Tate has a two-sport scholarship to North Carolina), as are Jacob Turner (Tigers, 9th overall), Grant Green (A's, 13th overall), Andy Oliver (Tigers, 2nd round), Kentrail Davis (Brewers, supplemental), and many, many more. Aaron Crow and Matt Purke, both top 15 picks, will come with hefty price tags as well. Many negotiations will come down to the wire this year. (By the way, "the wire" is August 17 this year, as the signing date has been extended by 2 days.)
• I'll have my hypothetical draft up in a couple of weeks. Here's the first installment if you're curious. Day 2 of the draft, by the way, begins at noon ET.

Stephen Strasburg has crushing expectations to live up to

*Logo courtesy of www.mlb.com/Photo courtesy of goaztecs.cstv.com

Standout Performances: Regionals

This weekend was even more chock-full of great performances than usual because of the amount of games played in regionals. Here are some of the most notable:

Mike Leake, rhp, Arizona State

Again? Leake posted another ridiculous outing in the Tempe Regional, throwing his 3rd consecutive complete game, surrendering just 1 run, and striking out 15. If you think about it, Leake has perhaps had a better year than Stephen Strasburg: 15-1, 1.23 ERA, 7 CGs, .169 OBA, and a 143-20 K-BB ratio in an incredible 124.2 innings.

Sonny Gray, rhp, Vanderbilt

The freshman utterly dominated a red-hot Indiana team on Saturday to send the Hoosiers home winless. Gray threw 8 scoreless innings and struck out 10.

Matt Cerione, of, Georgia

I'm not a big Matt Cerione fan, but I do have to acknowledge the great game he had on Friday. The junior went 5-for-6 with 2 homers.

Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia

Even better for the Bulldogs was the drubbing Poythress laid on Ohio State on Friday. He crushed 3 homers as part of a 4-for-4 afternoon. That pushed the junior first baseman up to .376 with 25 dingers.

Tom Belza, ss, Oklahoma State

Friday was a night of multi-homer games, and Belza was one of many who did the trick. Although the Pokes shouldn't even be in the NCAA tourney, they took a game from Alabama as Belza drilled 3 home runs. He drove in 6 and drew 2 walks for good measure.

Bennett Davis, 2B, Elon

The senior second baseman cracked 3 homers against Southern Miss in a wild 17-15 loss on Friday. The Phoenix hit 5 round-trippers total, and Davis went 4-for-4. OF Bo Davis powered 2 homers for the Golden Eagles.

Brandon Meredith, 1B, San Diego State

Meredith clocked 2 homers against Fresno State on Saturday as the Aztecs sent the defending champs home early. SDSU starter Tyler Lavigne also did well, throwing 7.2 innings and allowing just 1 run.

Shaeffer Hall, lhp, Kansas

The crafty lefthander staved off elimination against Dartmouth on Saturday, tossing a complete-game shutout. He allowed 5 hits and fanned 6 in a 16-0 Jayhawks win.

A.J. Morris, rhp, Kansas State

I don't care if he gave up 6 runs and 13 hits, Morris had a valiant effort to beat Rice. The junior righthander threw 143 pitches over 9 innings to propel the Wildcats into super regional contention.

Danny Hultzen, lhp, Virginia

I really liked Virginia as a dangerous sleeper, but winning the Regional of Death? That's impressive. Hultzen led the Cavs to a Game 2 victory over #1 seed UC Irvine on Saturday with a dazzling, 7.1 shutout inning performance.

Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Louisiana State

Ranaudo (8-3, 3.09) was magnificent against Baylor in a winner's bracket game on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. He completed 9 innings, allowed 1 earned run on 3 hits, and struck out 14 Baylor batters. The 6-7 sophomore is one of the main reasons why LSU is such a dangerous threat in the postseason.

Chad Cregar, of, and Wade Gaynor, ss, Western Kentucky

Cregar (.325 with 19 HRs) and Gaynor (.375 with 25 HRs) led the Hilltoppers, an offense-crazy outfit, to an excellent showing in the Oxford Regional. WKU has to be considered one of the nation's premier mid-majors.

Caleb Cotham, rhp, Vanderbilt

Cotham was just ridiculous against a hard-hitting Middle Tennessee State offense on Sunday. He threw a complete-game shutout (the first Commodore ever to do so in the postseason), struck out 8, and didn't walk a batter. He even held MTSU superstar Bryce Brentz hitless!

Florida State Offense
The Seminoles scored 37 runs on 38 hits (including 15 doubles), so I think the whole team deserves to be here. Rather than listing the bevy of amazing individual feats, I'll just direct you to the box score.

Others:

Austin Wood, lhp, Texas

Justin Bloxom, 1B, Kansas State

Griffin Benedict, c, Georgia Southern

Daniel Bibona, lhp, UC Irvine

Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri

David Gutierrez, rhp, Miami
Scott Weismann, rhp, Clemson
Chris Dwyer, lhp, Clemson

Taylor Wall, lhp, Rice
Drew Smyly, lhp, Arkansas

Mike Leake

Sonny Gray

*Photos courtesy of vucommodores.cstv.com and thesundevils.cstv.com