Quick Look The Blue Jays have a wealth of decent pitching at the major league level, as well as potent young hitters like Travis Snider and Adam Lind. Toronto's disastrous 2009 draft, possibly the worst effort in the game, didn't help the organization's future prospects at all. Another problem is that they play in the AL East. The Roy Halladay deal greatly boosted the organizational talent, netting TBJ three of the top five players on this list and giving them some actual potential impact players.
Top Prospects
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Wallace's polished lefthanded bat has always been his calling card. He uses a quiet stance and is able to hit fastballs and offspeed offerings alike. A former Pac-10 Triple Crown winner and owner of a .305/.384/.475 career minor league line, Wallace has strong pitch recognition and above-average power. I was disappointed that his walk rate was only 7.8% in 2009, however. The 6-1, 245-pounder has a thick lower half and below-average athleticism. He won't stick at third base in the long term. He also strikes out a fair amount (19.3%). Wallace's hitting prowess, though perhaps exaggerated sometimes, makes him an excellent bet to be an average big leaguer or better. His offense might even be good enough to make him a star.
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Drabek, the son of former big league Cy Young winner Doug, was the 18th overall pick in 2006. His pure stuff was among the best in the draft, but his volatile makeup concerned many a team. Drabek underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, causing him to miss about a year, and he seems to have calmed his demeanor somewhat since then. Drabek's pitching is what has people talking. The 6-0, 185-pounder has an 88-93 mph fastball and a filthy curveball. Drabek's control has also improved and he walked only 7.6% of batters (while fanning 22.9%) in 2009. He is very athletic and competive. His changeup needs improvement for him to stick in the rotation. Drabek's command is also not quite there. He is ready for Triple-A, and Drabek a few refinements away from being a quality mid-rotation hurler. He could also be the next Tom Gordon in a bullpen role.
Zach Stewart, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Stewart has enjoyed an excellent two-year professional career (2.70 FIP), and became one of the Blue Jays' best prospects when he came over in the Scott Rolen trade. Stewart's bread and butter is his 92-94 mph sinker. The Texas Tech product rode the pitch to a 2.0 GO/AO ratio in 2009. Stewart also possesses a sharp slider and a changeup. The latter has improved, but he may still end up in the bullpen. (He worked as both a starter and reliever last season.) Stewart is able to generate enough swings and misses, but he can sharpen his command. Optimists think he's a #2-3 starter, while others think his heater is his only reliable pitch and will send him to the bullpen. Almost ready for Toronto, Stewart will return to Triple-A and to the starting rotation.
Chad Jenkins, rhp
Age: 22 Level: none-High A
The 20th overall selection in last year's draft, Jenkins signed for $1.359 million. The Kennesaw State product combines both stuff and pitchability. Jenkins's fastball sits around 90-94 mph. His slider and changeup are solid pitches, and the burly 6-4, 235 righthander throws strikes with regularity. There are no glaring weaknesses for Jenkins. He needs to stay on top of his conditioning and refine his secondary pitches. He'll move quickly, and could be a #3 starter or better.
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
The Blue Jays acquired d'Arnaud from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay deal. The 2007 supplemental-rounder is one of the better catching prospects in the minors. D'Arnaud was regarded as a stout defender in high school, but while he has an above-average arm and good hands, he wasn't great defensively in 2009. I think he'll ultimately be fine behind the plate, but he has room for improvement. D'Arnaud didn't have a standout offensive campaign either last year, going .255/.319/.419 with a 7.6 BB%. He has gap power and doesn't whiff excessively, though, so he could develop into an above-average hitter for a catcher. D'Arnaud is a pronounced flyball hitter. He will advance to High A in 2010, and the season could help decide if he or his brother Chase, a Pirates farmhand, is the better prospect. Travis needs to improve, but he has the all-around tools to grow into a starting MLB catcher.
J.P. Arencibia, c
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Arencibia, a former superstar at Tennessee, has two big league skills: plus power and solid defense. He also has good makeup. He is undermined, however, by a lack of plate discipline. Arencibia's career BB-K ratio is a grotesque 58-271 (4.5% and 21.1%, respectively). The 6-0, 215-pounder socked 54 extra-base hits and had a .208 IsoP in Triple-A last season, but his OBP was an unacceptable .284. His approach is simply too aggressive and his swing too long. Arencibia, a 1st-round pick in 2007, needs to be more patient for his potent bat to play. The tools are there, and Arencibia will attempt to put them together during a repeat of Triple-A this year.
Brad Mills, lhp
Age: 24 Level: MLB
Mills is a classic finesse lefty. The 2007 4th-rounder from Arizona frequently works off his curveball and plus changeup. He is deceptive and mixes his pitches well. Mills was torn apart in a 14-inning stint with Toronto last season, though, and his stuff may not be good enough to fool hitters at the highest level. His FIP has increased at every level (2.03 in Short-Season, 3.80 in Triple-A, 9.88 in the majors). Mills's fastball tops out at 90 mph, and his 5-11 frame doesn't add any intimidation either. He is an excellent bet to have a major league career, but Mills needs pinpoint command to be more than a thumbing staff-filler.
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Cooper earned the tag of "sweet-swinging first baseman" during his time in college. The California native was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft, and he'd ideally be a high-average, line-drive hitter. Cooper struggled in his first full pro season, however, hitting .258/.340/.389 in Double-A. Cooper's hand-eye coordination and gap power are above-average, but he does not have the home run power of a typical first baseman. The 6-0, 200-pounder is anchored to that position because he is too slow and unathletic to play the outfield. I liked Cooper in college, but now I'm not sure if there's enough to project him as more than a fringe-average big leaguer.
Henderson Alvarez, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
Alvarez came out of nowhere to have a terrific 2009 season. The young Venezuelan righty posted a 2.43 FIP in Low A, while walking a mere 3.7% of opposing batters. Alvarez's fastball isn't overpowering, coming in around 90 mph, but his diving changeup is a weapon. He served up only one home run in 124 IP last year. Alvarez's breaking ball needs to show improvement for him to remain the rotation. He has proven to be a prolific zone-pounder, but he isn't nasty enough to consistently miss bats. (His K rate in 2009 was 17.9%.) Ticketed for the generous Florida State League, Alvarez looks like a #4 starter.
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Marisnick was drafted on upside. Toronto nabbed the California prepster in the 3rd round last year and signed him for $1 million. Marisnick has an explosive 6-4, 200-pound frame and combination of speed and power. A potential center fielder or right fielder, Marisnick also has a strong arm. His hitting mechanics, however, are questioned, and teams would have been willing to draft him much higher if they thought he had a better chance of hitting. The athletic Marisnick will require several years and thousands of plate appearances in the minors, but the payoff could be very large.
Others: RHPs Danny Farquhar, Josh Roenicke, and Andrew Liebel; LHPs Luis Perez and Tim Collins; SS Justin Jackson; 3B Kevin Ahrens
Impact Talent: C-
Farm System Depth: C
2010 Breakout Prospect
Carlos Perez, c
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season
Perez controls the zone well for a teenager, having compiled more walks than strikeouts as a pro. Besides his batting eye, he also has a solid feel for hitting (.291/.364/.433 in the GCL last season). Behind the plate, he needs to clean up his footwork, blocking, etc., but has a strong arm and the time to develop into a plus defender. He is very young, but Perez shows the ability to be an all-around catcher. He could be in the New York-Penn or the Midwest League this season.
