State of the System: Seattle Mariners

Quick Look

Even after surrendering three prospects to acquire Cliff Lee, I like Seattle's system. The Mariners lack blue-chip prospects after their top two, but they have a nice mix of players after that who look like future contributors. GM Jack Zduriencik has done an excellent job in his year at the helm, reshaping the organization and arguably positioning the M's to be the team to beat in the AL West in 2010.

Top Prospects

Dustin Ackley, of

Age: 21 Level: none-Triple-A

Ackley rolls out of bed hitting line drives. The 2009 2nd overall pick hit over .400 every year in college, set a College World Series record for hits, and held his own against advanced pitching in the Arizona Fall League straight out of college. Ackley has strong pitch-recognition skills and a sweet lefthanded stroke designed for contact. He goes berserk when he gets in a groove. The 6-1, 185-pounder launched 22 home runs in his last season at North Carolina (and may have the pop to hit 10-15 a year at the major league level), but power is not Ackley's game. He played 1st base in college because of an arm injury, but will play the outfield as a pro. Ackley has plus speed and solid athleticism that should translate well there. He played the left side of the infield in high school, and some would like to try him at 2nd base, but he believes he'll wind up an outfielder. Ackley's value would be highest if he sticks in center, but his polished bat will be good enough to make him an above-average big leaguer anywhere. He could rise as quickly as White Sox infielder Gordon Beckham did.

Michael Saunders, of

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Saunders struggled in his first taste of the majors in 2009 (.221/.258/.279), but the Canada native still offers an intriguing blend of upside and polish. Saunders throws and runs well enough to play all three outfield positions. He flashed excellent defensive skills in his time in left field in Seattle. At 6-4, 210, the lefty batter has some raw power at the plate. He focuses getting on base, though, and his career high in home runs is 15. His career MiLB line is a maintainable .279/.364/.452. He is sound fundamentally, and can bunt and steal some bases. Saunders does fan often (24.2 K% in the minors), a byproduct of him working deep counts. Having already reached the big leagues, Saunders is now primed to develop into an above-average starting outfielder.

Nick Franklin, ss

Age: 18 Level: Short-Season-Low A

Franklin was taken in the 1st round of the '09 draft. He looked good in his pro debut and is ready to start 2010 in a full-season league. Franklin has a compact swing that allows him to hit for contact. The switch-hitter probably won't be a power threat, particularly with wood. The Florida native does project to stay up the middle, thanks to his range, hands, and instincts. He won over scouts with his performance during showcases last year, and he has speed and athleticism to go along with his gamer mentality. Some think his tools aren't overwhelming enough, but I buy into Franklin as a legitimate shortstop prospect with exciting potential.

Adam Moore, c

Age: 25 Level: MLB

An offensive-minded 6th-rounder coming out of Texas-Arlington in 2006, Moore has worked hard to make himself a more complete backstop. He steadily climbed the ladder and reached Seattle for a 24 PA cameo last year. Moore has some pop from the right side and is an above-average hitter for a catcher. He doesn't walk or strike out excessively. The 6-3, 220-pounder has an above-average arm and is a steady receiver and blocker. He lacks agility and speed, but is fine for a catcher. Moore is essentially maxed out, but he has the tools to be a solid all-around MLB catcher starting this season.

Michael Pineda, rhp

Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A

A Dominican righty who steamrolled the Midwest League in 2008, Pineda was limited to 47 IP in 2009 because of lingering elbow issues. Pineda has fine command of a low-90s fastball and an advanced changeup. He has bulked up and his 6-5, 250 frame bodes well for durability. The problem is that his arm action is awkward and is believed to be the root of his elbow problems. Pineda is still young, but he has yet to develop a consistent breaking ball. Seattle may send him back to High A or challenge him in Double-A (I'd choose the latter). Before he reaches his high ceiling, Pineda needs to iron out his delivery, but he is one good season away from becoming one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Alex Liddi, 3B

Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A

Liddi, a rare Italian prospect, stumbled to a .315 wOBA as a teenager in Low A for two years. Freed from the MWL doldrums and released into the Cal League in 2009, Liddi went .345/.411/.594 with 23 homers. I remain skeptical how much of his breakout year can be attributed to pure improvement rather than the hitter's havens in which he played, but Liddi is certainly a prospect. The 6-4, 176-pounder is starting to tap into his power and some believe he will produce enough to profile at third. He likes to take pitches the other way. Liddi does, however, have an unorthodox hitting style, and he whiffs often (23.8 career K%). Despite a big frame, he is regarded as a strong defender at the hot corner. Double-A will be a strong barometer of Liddi's ultimate potential.

Carlos Triunfel, inf

Age: 19 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Triunfel signed for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 5-11, 205-pounder proceeded to progress rapidly, reaching High A at age 17. He lost time in 2009, however, as a fractured fibula truncated his season to 44 PAs. Triunfel's feel for hitting is still well ahead of the curve. He has strong hand-eye coordination and the bat speed to be an excellent contact hitter. Triunfel is an impatient hitter, though, with a 5.2% career walk rate. He has decent hands and a cannon arm, but his stocky frame and substandard range will push him to second or third base. Triunfel has very little present power, and does not profile well at the latter. He'll return to Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2010 in need of a broader offensive toolset.

Gabriel Noriega, ss

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Gifted with plus range, hands, and infield actions, Noriega makes all the plays at short and gives observers reason to believe he will play shortstop in the big leagues. The native of Venezuela has some contact ability (and hit .311/.360/.456 in the Appalachian League at age 18), but he has work to do offensively. Noriega, a righthander, strikes out too often (26.2 K%) and needs to focus on getting on base. The 6-2, 170-pounder is an average runner. Likely ticketed for Low A, Noriega will be a MLBer if he hits.

Shawn Kelley, rhp

Age: 25 Level: MLB

Back in 2007, when Vanderbilt hosted the Nashville Regioanl, the #1 Commodores faced 4-seed Austin Peay in the opener. Conventional wisdom pegged the Governors as a pushover, but Vandy coach Tim Corbin opted to start his ace David Price to be safe. The move payed off, as Kelley kept his team neck-and-neck with a brilliant, 10-inning performance. Vanderbilt prevailed in a 2-1 epic, but Kelley put his name on the map.

Kelley was drafted in the 13th round that summer, and made it to Seattle as a reliever in 2009. The 6-2, 215-pounder pounds the zone with a 93 mph fastball and a plus slider. He doesn't keep the ball on the ground enough, but he posts strong strikeout rates and has good enough stuff to be a 7th- or 8th-inning reliever in the short-term and the long-term.

Steven Baron, c

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Baron stood out as a defense-oriented high school catcher last spring. The Miami native was Seattle's supplemental 1st-round pick. Baron has a plus arm in addition to good footwork and soft hands. He may lack the strength to survive against pro pitchers, though. The 6-0, 195-pounder has holes in his swing and will never be confused with an offensive powerhouse. The Mariners are optimistic that he'll run into some homers and line drives, but Baron likely will not hit for a high average or post strong OBPs. The track record with defense-first prep catchers isn't great, but Baron shut down the running game in his pro debut and has the tools be at least a backup.

Others: RHP Daniel Cortes; LHP Mauricio Robles; OFs Greg Halman, Guillermo Pimentel, James Jones, and Ezequiel Carrera; 3Bs Mario Martinez and Matt Tuiasosopo; 1Bs Rich Poythress and Mike Carp

Impact Talent: C+

Farm System Depth: B

2010 Breakout Prospect

Julio Morban, of

Age: 17 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

A highly-touted Dominican amateur, Morban signed for $1.1 million in 2008 and got his first pro action in the Arizona League last summer. A shoulder sprain limited him to DH duty for much of the season. Morban held his own (with an encouraging .247 IsoP) and displayed a sweet lefthanded swing, but his control of the zone was nonexistent (7-49 BB-K in 165 PAs). Morban has decent athleticism and instincts (and a strong arm), so he might be able to stick in center, but his bat is his meal ticket in any case. Once he gets his feet under him and makes more adjustments, he could rocket up the Mariners' depth chart.

Michael Saunders foul ball from 2006

2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com

AFL Rosters Released

Rosters for the Arizona Fall League were released this week, and the 18th edition of the circuit, which starts on October 13, is shaping up to be as strong as usual. Here are some of the highlights for each team's roster.

Phoenix Desert Dogs

Top Prospect: RHP Stephen Strasburg (Nationals). Strasburg will be of the most well-known players in fall league history when he takes the hill for the 5-time defending AFL champs. This year's top pick is probably just looking to get acclimated to pro ball in preparation for a major league call-up next year.

Pitchers: 10th overall pick Drew Storen, also a Nationals righthander, will close for Phoenix. Orioles RHP Brandon Erbe will continue to try to harness his electric stuff in the rotation. RHPs Heath Rollins and Matt Gorgen are sleepers for the Rays.

Position Players: The Desert Dogs will be putting up a lot of crooked numbers. They have Derek Norris (Nationals) and J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays) sharing catching duties; Jemile Weeks (A's), David Cooper (Blue Jays), Brandon Snyder (Orioles), Josh Bell (Orioles), and Chris Marrero (Nationals) in the infield; and Corey Brown (A's) and Grant Desme (A's) in the outfield.

Peoria Javelinas

Top Prospect: OF/1B Dustin Ackley (Mariners). The 2nd overall pick this year will start his pro career in Arizona. He has amazing contact hitting ability, and hopefully we'll get a chance to see him play some outfield.

Pitchers: The Javelinas have a decent collection of arms. Their best are Phillippe Aumont (Mariners), Cody Satterwhite (Tigers), Joshua Fields (Mariners), Travis Schlichting (Dodgers), Robbie Weinhardt (Tigers), and Zach Braddock (Brewers).

Position Players: The Javelinas' outfield is highlighted by Jordan Danks (White Sox), Andrew Lambo (Dodgers), and Lorenzo Cain (Brewers). Infielders Scott Sizemore (Tigers), Cale Iorg (Tigers), Dayan Viciedo (White Sox), and Taylor Green (Brewers) are all solid prospects, as is catcher Jonathan Lucroy (Brewers). 1B/OF Ryan Strieby (Tigers) can mash. Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel will try to salvage his 2009 after a broken leg knocked him out of the regular season.

Surprise Rafters

Top Prospect: 1B Ike Davis (Mets). Davis, a 2008 1st-round pick from Arizona State, has assuaged concerns over his rough pro debut by putting together a nice 2009 campaign.

Pitchers: The Surprise rotation will consist of RHPs Ian Kennedy (Yankees), Lance Lynn (Cardinals), Danny Gutierrez (Royals), and some other lesser-known players. Lightning-armed righty Adam Reifer (Cardinals) is their most logical choice for closer.

Position Players: 3B Mike Moustakas (Royals) is the biggest name, but he has been disappointing. SS Jeff Bianchi (Royals) and 2B Daniel Descalso (Cardinals) have both had excellent years, and they'll make a solid double-play combination. The Rafters' outfield is headlined by Daryl Jones (Cardinals) and David Lough (Royals). Austin Romine (Yankees) and Bryan Anderson (Cardinals) make for a good catching duo. 1B/OF Mitch Moreland can hit, too.

Peoria Saguaros

Top Prospect: OF Jason Heyward (Braves). The top hitting prospect in the game will take some more hacks in the AFL. Though he's only 20, he's auditioning for a 2010 call-up.

Pitchers: 2009 1st-rounder Mike Minor (Braves), a lefthander from Vanderbilt, will front the rotation. Craig Kimbrel (Braves), Connor Graham (Indians), Zach Putnam (Indians), Steve Garrison (Padres), Chia-Jen Lo (Astros), Evan Scribner (Padres) are also worth keeping an eye on.

Position Players: Peoria will be exciting to watch, as they'll feature an explosive offense. Flanking Heyward in the outfield will be Chris Heisey (Reds), Nick Weglarz (Indians), Cedric Hunter (Padres), and Jon Gaston (Astros). Hot-shots Yonder Alonso (Reds) and Freddie Freeman (Braves) will share first base; and Lance Zawadzki (Padres), Zack Cozart (Reds), Brandon Hicks (Braves), and Carlos Rivero (Indians) will also be in the infield. Even though Astros #1 prospect Jason Castro won't need much help behind the dish, Mitch Canham (Padres) and Matt McBride (Indians) will be quality backups.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Top Prospect: C Buster Posey (Giants). Posey's an athletic backstop and an elite hitter who's reached Triple-A one year out of college. He could be in the majors soon.

Pitchers: Nobody jumps out in the Scottsdale staff, but they should find a couple competent arms out a group that includes Joe Martinez (Giants), Bryan Augenstein (Diamondbacks), Mike Cisco (Phillies), Steve Edlefsen (Giants), Michael Schwimer (Phillies), and Cesar Valdez (Diamondbacks). The rest of the bunch--particularly Daniel Moskos, Donnie Veal, Tony Watson, and Scott Mathieson--is synonymous with unfulfilled expectations.

Position Players: The Scorpions are going to score runs in bunches. Domonic Brown (Phillies) is an elite prospect, Jose Tabata (Pirates) can rake if he's focused, Thomas Neal (Giants) has put up a .332/.422/.582 line this year, Brandon Allen (Diamondbacks) is a big bopper, Collin Cowgill (Diamondbacks) is similar to Cody Ross and hits more like his 5-9 frame suggests, Wilin Rosario (Rockies) has major upside, Darin Holcomb (Rockies) is a professional hitter, and Steve Susdorf (Phillies) is a sleeper.

Mesa Solar Sox

Top Prospect: OF Mike Stanton (Marlins). Stanton has unlimited raw power, as well as athleticism and aptitude. The AFL will be an outstanding barometer of his hit tool, as he'll be facing upper-level pitching every day. He'll be fun to watch regardless of how many whiffs he might rack up.

Pitchers: Pitching won't be Mesa's forte. The best of the lot after Cubs hurlers Andrew Cashner and Blake Parker is low-upside arms like Alex Burnett (Twins), Mike McCardell (Twins), John Gaub (Cubs), and Dustin Richardson (Red Sox).

Position Players: The Solar Sox will have a bevy of high-profile prospects dotting their lineup: Josh Vitters (Cubs), Matt Dominguez (Marlins), Ryan Kalish (Red Sox), Rene Tosoni (Twins), Peter Bourjos (Angels), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Hank Conger (Angels), Luis Exposito (Red Sox), and Chris Parmelee (Twins).

*Logos courtesy of www.milb.com

Top Talents Get Top Dollar as Negotiations Go Down to the Wire

Last night (midnight ET) was the deadline for 2009 draft picks to sign a professional contract, meaning many of the best amateurs in the nation are watching the ink dry on multi-million dollar bonuses. All but two first-rounders eventually came to an agreement with their clubs. (That doesn't include #12 pick Aaron Crow, who, as an indy leaguer, has extra time.) Scott Boras Corp. clients had particularly contentious negotiations, but once again Boras came out a winner. Boras clients set records for the richest overall deal ever, the top bonus for a high school player ever, and the highest bonus handed to a prep pitcher. Here's some of the biggest news from the last few days. (As always, Baseball America's Draft Database has a complete list of the bonuses and signees.)

• #1 pick Stephen Strasburg, after months of speculation, accepted a major league deal including a $7.5 million bonus and $15.1 million guaranteed. He had been rumored to be seeking much more than that, but the pact is still the richest of all time. Strasburg couldn't possibly have gained any more leverage by rejecting the Nats' offer, so he wisely accepted the figure. Now we'll see if he can live up to expectations and turn a franchise around single-handedly.
• Rangers 1st-rounder Matt Purke, a high school lefty who went 14th overall, was one of two 1st-rounders to not sign. Purke will take his overpowering fastball-breaking ball package to TCU, where he will be draft-eligible after 2 years.
• LeVon Washington couldn't come to terms with the Rays as the #30 overall pick, either. That would seem to make the speedy 2B/OF ticketed for Florida, but apparently he doesn't qualify academically, so I guess we'll see what happens.
• Dustin Ackley (Mariners, 2nd overall) garnered an MLB contract with a $6 million signing bonus and $7.5 million guaranteed. The smooth-swinger also has salary incentives for how quickly he reaches the major leagues. Seattle also got high school infielder Nick Franklin, their other 1st-rounder, for $1.28 million over the weekend.
  
• Donavan Tate, a high school outfielder from Georgia who went third overall, signed a $6.25 million deal with the Padres (that is spread out over 4 years because he is a multi-sport athlete). That is the largest bonus ever handed to a high school player. Earlier, San Diego gave 52nd overall pick Everett Williams $775,000 and 4th-rounder Keyvius Sampson $600,000. The trio spurned UNC, Texas, and Florida State, respectively.
• The Rockies capped off a superb draft by signing 11th overall pick Tyler Matzek for $3.9 million. A 6-3 lefty with incredible upside, Matzek had been headed to Oregon. Colorado got 3 1st-round talents--Matzek, 30th pick Tim Wheeler (OF, Sacramento State), and 32nd pick Rex Brothers (LHP, Lipscomb)--as well as several other sound picks. That'll give the farm system a nice boost.
• San Francisco's #1 pick, RHP Zack Wheeler, netted a $3.3 million bonus as the 6th overall selection.
• The Tigers spent big on a couple of Scott Boras clients, giving them one of the better draft hauls in the industry. Their top pick, Missouri high school RHP Jacob Turner, received a major league contract that includes a $4.7 million signing bonus and $5.5 million in guaranteed money (making it the largest contract ever for a high school hurler). Turner, who had been committed to North Carolina, has touched the upper-90s and flashed a nice curve and change. Detroit also gave 2nd-rounder Andy Oliver, an Oklahoma State lefty, $1.425 million. Prep shortstop Daniel Fields (6th round) signed for $1.625 million.
• Shelby Miller, a fireballing Texas righthander, signed an above-slot $2.875 bonus and instantly became the Cardinals' best prospect.
• The Indians locked up #15 pick Alex White with a $2.25 million signing bonus. White is a power righty out of North Carolina.
• The Reds spent over $3 million to sign their top two picks. Arizona State RHP Mike Leake, the 8th overall pick, took home $2.27 million and USC RHP Brad Boxberger, a supplemental-rounder, got $857,000.
• I wasn't blown away by the Marlins' effort, but at least they did come to terms with all of their top choices, particularly high school hurlers Chad James ($1.7 million) and Bryan Berglund ($572,500).
  
• The Blue Jays were aggressive in getting 3rd-rounder Jake Marisnick, an athletic high school outfielder from California, to sign for $1 million, but they had snafus with a trio of their other top picks. Supplemental-round LHP James Paxton will return to Kentucky, and high school pitchers Jake Eliopoulos (2nd round) and Jake Barrett (3rd round) will head to college. That's an extremely disappointing draft for Toronto, who didn't exactly have a thriving farm system in the first place.
• The Twins signed 1st-rounder Kyle Gibson for $1.8 million despite concerns over his health. Gibson, who has a stress fracture in his forearm, will be a steal if he regains his stuff--he could've been a top-10 pick if not for the injury.
• The Yankees signed their 1st-round pick, high school outfielder Slade Heathcott, for $2.2 million. New York also picked up prep catcher J.R. Murphy (supplemental-rounder) and Vanderbilt RHP Caleb Cotham (5th-rounder) for $1.25 million and $675,000, respectively.
• The A's doled out some huge bonuses, cementing their draft class as one of the finest in the game. 1st-rounder Grant Green, a shortstop from USC, got $2.75 million, while top high school catcher Max Stassi received $1.5 million. Ian Krol (7th round), a high school lefty, got $925,000 to sign with Oakland. Stassi had committed to UCLA, while Krol was an Arizona recruit.
  
• Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis, a sophomore-eligible Boras client (double whammy), inked a deal with the Brewers. Davis had an up-and-down spring, but still got $1.2 million (well above slot for the 39th overall pick).
• LSU took a blow when touted recruit Brody Colvin signed with Philadelphia (for $900,000). A power righthander, Colvin gives the Phillies' weak draft class a necessary boost. His bonus was the third highest in the 7th round.
• The Mets had a pretty awful draft, but they did sign 2 of their best picks. LHP Steven Matz, New York's first choice and the #72 overall pick, received $895,000 to forgo Coastal Carolina and 14th-round LHP Zach Dotson got $500,000 to pass up Georgia. That was about it, though. A big-market organization in dire need of a talent injection, New York completely and epically failed this year.
• The Rays handed prep 1B Jeff Malm (5th round) $680,000 and prep outfielder Todd Glaesmann (3rd round) $930,000. Tampa Bay was not so fortunate with its first two picks, though, as Washington and Stanford recruit Kenny Diekroeger went unsigned. That's kind of a rough draft for TB, as Malm, Glaesmann, and C Luke Bailey (4th round) are three of their only draftees whom I actually like.
• With Crow still yet to sign, major league clubs have spent over $160 million on the first 10 rounds of the draft this year, about the same as last year (a team-by-team look is available here). The Nationals also set the record for the most money sunk into a single draft class. Looks like MLB's misguided attempts to keep bonuses down are failing miserably.

Now the draft is finalized, we can begin to gauge teams' efforts (although it takes years to give them a proper final assessment). I think the Diamondbacks and Rockies had the top two drafts (taking draft position into consideration--the Nationals obviously collected the most talent), and I think the Mets and Blue Jays acquired next to nothing. Now that we know which college recruits were successfully shepherded through the draft and which ones were snatched up by pro ball, I will have a complete wrap-up of the top recruiting classes coming up.

Dustin Ackley

*Photo courtesy of www.seattlepi.com

Catching Up With the CWS

I'm a little behind with recaps of all of the College World Series action. Here is what has happened so far:

Bracket 1

Texas- 2-0

North Carolina- 1-1

Arizona State- 1-1

Southern Miss- 0-2 (eliminated)

Texas has eked out a couple of wins. First, they toppled Southern Miss with a bases-loaded walk. Then, they overcame a 6-0 deficit against the nation's #2 ERA man to beat ASU 10-6. Cameron Rupp hit a pair of oppo homers and freshman Taylor Jungmann was tremendous in relief of starter Chance Ruffin, who was hit hard, to carry the Longhorns. UNC squandered an outstanding effort by Alex White (9 IP, 1 R, 12 K) with an extra-innings loss at the hands of ASU. They came back with a CWS record-tying 23 hits, including 5 from All-American 1B Dustin Ackley, to bounce Southern Miss. The Tar Heels have Matt Harvey, Patrick Johnson, and White lined up for a potential climb out of the loser's bracket. ASU's pitching situation is much more dicey, so they'll be a longshot from here on out. Texas has two chances to beat the winner of the ASU/UNC clash, and electric righty Brandon Workman will probably get the ball first.

Bracket 2

LSU- 2-0

Virginia- 1-1

Arkansas- 1-1

Cal State Fullerton- 0-2 (eliminated)

Cal State Fullerton, perhaps the slight favorite entering the CWS, played as poorly in two losing efforts this week as they played well in convincing runs through regionals and super regionals. RHPs Noe Ramirez and Daniel Renken were simply not themselves, and the rest of the team did not play "Titan Baseball". LSU has handled their foes with some old-style LSU Gorilla Ball and a solid start from Louis Coleman to take a commanding position in this bracket. It'll be tough for either Virginia (who knocked out CSF after losing to LSU) or Arkansas (who homered and Dallas Keuchel-ed their way to a win over Fullerton and then got trounced by LSU) to win 2 games against the Tigers with the way they are playing. The Bayou Bengals are clicking on offense, defense, and on the mound.

Intriguing Day 1 Complete

The first day of the draft has come to a close. What a fantastic night it was! There were tons of incredible picks, and also some head-scratchers. It's definitely the best day of the year, and there is more left to come. Tomorrow starts with Round 4, and Thursday will have the last 20 rounds or so. Here is the complete database of picks so far. It's obviously very, very early, but I tentatively think the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Brewers started out well, while the Phillies, Pirates, and Mets whiffed on their first couple picks. There is much more to play out tomorrow and Thursday. Here are some of the things I noticed on Day 1.

• No surprise up top. Stephen Strasburg went #1 as projected for the last 18 months, and North Carolina 1B Dustin Ackley went to Seattle at #2. I really don't think the gap is as stratospheric as it seems between the two. Strasburg is better than Ackley and probably the top prospect in baseball, but an injury could derail his career a la Mark Prior, and he needs to develop a changeup and adapt to pro hitters who have seen velocity before (albeit nothing like Strasburg's level). Ackley is has otherworldly bat control and he should be an outfielder who challenges for batting titles. It's not unfathomable that Ackley ends up better than Strasburg. Those two are far ahead of anyone else in this draft class.
• The Padres took a couple of players completely different than their organizational prototype. San Diego usually goes for college strike-throwers or polished batters with good plate discipline. They grabbed a pair of big-time high school athletes today, though, with Donavan Tate at #3 and Everett Williams at #52. That should infuse some life and upside into the system, but I think better talents were available at those spots.
• It just never ends for the Pirates. They seemed to be turning it around (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, etc.), but they made some major gaffes with their selections today. Boston College C Tony Sanchez was their first choice; he went 4th overall. Sanchez has great makeup and defensive skills, but his bat is not a guarantee despite the great year he had. I like Sanchez, but more in the 25-35 range. #4 overall? That just seems like a cost-cutting measure for the Bucs. Again. Victor Black (supplemental), Brooks Pounders (2), and Evan Chambers (3) with the next 3 picks certainly doesn't enthrall me. I guess we'll see, but my gut reaction is that the Pirates could have gotten some better value.
• A couple of Mikes (Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor and ASU RHP Mike Leake) went 7th and 8th, respectively. That is way too rich for those two. They both pitch in the 88-91 mph neighborhood and throw strikes with a curve, slider, and changeup. They are proven, polished college hurlers whom I like a ton. With a top 10 pick, though, you should probably be getting some more upside. With that said, Minor and Leake are underrated; I like their chances to be mid-rotation starters.
• I absolutely love Colorado's first-day haul. Prep pitcher Tyler Matzek was perhaps the third-best talent, and the Rockies got him at #11. The 6-3 lefty throws in the low-90s with minimal effort, and he has touched 97 recently. He has advanced secondary stuff for a high schooler (including a knee-buckling curveball) and a feel for pitching. That's outstanding for a first-round pick, but the Rockies didn't stop there. They nabbed Sacramento State OF Tim Wheeler, a middle-of-the-first-round talent, at #32; college lefty Rex Brothers, who might end up in the bullpen but works in the mid-90s with a sharp slider, in the sandwich round; Nolan Arenado, a hard-hitting prepster who could potentially move behind the plate, in the second round; and Clemson 1B Ben Paulsen, a solid hitter who could get some inflated numbers playing for the Rockies. That's an encouraging first day.
• The Diamondbacks got a fresh batch of great prospects today. That's not hard with 8 picks in the first 3 rounds. I like powerful high school corner infielders Bobby Borchering (1) and Matt Davidson (1s), all-around Notre Dame CF A.J. Pollock (1), college high-upside arms Mike Belfiore (1s) and Eric Smith (2), pummeling collegian Marc Krauss (2), and perhaps prep infielder Chris Owings (1s). I have gotten some mixed reviews on Owings, but also a Gordon Beckham comp, so I'm not giving up on that. Arizona needed an injection of talent, as their farm system has thinned with the graduation of Justin Upton, Chris Young, Max Scherzer, etc. to the majors.
• It looks like clubs were scared off by Tanner Scheppers' shoulder issues, as the former Fresno State ace lasted until #44 for the Rangers. He has arguably the second best pure stuff in the draft (mid- to high-90s fastball and biting curve), so Texas at the very least has a lot to work with in their supplemental-rounder.
• Robert Stock unexpectedly got drafted as a catcher. The 19-year-old USC junior has been extremely disappointing with the bat after being a decorated prep catcher, so I thought a team would take him as a pitcher. He looks promising on the mound. It sounds like Stock could return for his senior year. He could go very high if he continues to pitch well next year for the Trojans.
  
• Three other pitcher-or-hitter debates were solved today, two of them by the Dodgers. LA selected Baylor's Aaron Miller as a LHP (he is inexperienced on the mound, but also has serious arm strength) and Cal's Blake Smith as a RHP. There were many better options available to the Dodgers at those spots. I'm surprised how weak those picks were, though scouting director Logan White has a great track record, so he may know something that I don't. Florida prepster Mychal Givens also went as a pitcher. That's surprising, as he had good actions at short and projects as a reliever if he's a pitcher. (UPDATE: The Orioles actually botched the announcement. Givens will play short for them.) Back to the Dodgers, I liked their last two picks, prep RHP Garrett Gould and junior college RHP Brett Wallach.
• I'm surprised HS OF Randal Grichuk went in the first round. His R-R profile and relative lack of tools other than the bat apparently weren't a concern for the Angels. Tyler Skaggs, a projectable high school lefty, was who I thought they'd take in that slot. They still nabbed Skaggs with the 40th overall pick.
• Well the Phillies sure had an awful first night. Modest-ceilinged OF Kelly Dugan (who is strongly committed to Pepperdine) and lethargic OF Kyrell Hudson? You have to improve on that.
• I also wasn't blown away by the Mets' effort. Steven Matz is a live-armed lefty who can run it up to 94, but he is very raw and will take some time. I thought he'd be better served to head to Coastal Carolina for a few years. Florida Southern infielder Robbie Shields, their next pick, has some hitting ability and pop, but he's a bit underwhelming to be one of the headliners of a team's draft.
• Large-market powers Boston and New York both went slightly off the board with their first picks. The Red Sox took Puerto Rican OF Reymond Fuentes (a relative of Carlos Beltran who has game-changing speed and profiles as a starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter, but who needs to get stronger) and the Yankees popped OF Slade Heathcott, a gifted (five tools at times) but volatile prep star. It's a push as to which of the rivals got the better outfielder.
• I loved the Alex White pick for the Indians. If he can get over his injuries and inconsistency, and pitch like his postseason self more often, he'll be a great pitcher. As it is, he can light up radar guns with 91-94 mph heat that he sometimes kicks up to 96-97. He also owns a splitter and a slider, both of which can be out pitches. I am lower than others on White, since he sometimes loses command or doesn't dominate despite his electric stuff, but getting that caliber of arm at #15 is a steal.
• I also loved how the Twins stole Kyle Gibson. The Missouri righty commands an average fastball, changeup, and wicked, 82-85 mph slider. He also has room to grow into his projectable frame and start throwing harder. His recent stress fracture clouded his draft status, but if Gibson can rest up and overcome that, Minnesota got a top 10 talent near the back of the first round.
• I'm mildly disappointed by my favorite team's initial selections. The White Sox drafted OF Jared Mitchell, C Josh Phegley, OF Trayce Thompson, LHP David Holmberg, and LHP Bryan Morgado. I do like Mitchell, an LSU standout, as a high-risk, high-reward player. He draws a good share of walks, steals all kinds of bases, has great athleticism, and occasionally shows glimpses of power. He might struggle with strikeouts, but the Sox desperately need a centerfielder, and Mitchell could be a good start. The other picks aren't so great. All of Phegley's value is tied up in his bat (he is a poor defensive catcher), which isn't all that spectacular for a supplemental-rounder. Thompson has tools galore, but there's a fat chance that he'll put them all together. Holmberg sounds promising, but last I heard he was set on attending Florida. Maybe he could be good if the Sox find a way to sign him. Morgado has power stuff but constantly battles inconsistency, and was moved to the pen at Tennessee. Chicago's track record of straightening out power arms and bringing the best out of them (think Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, and Gavin Floyd) is the best hope for Morgado.
• Grant Green could be a steal at #13 for the A's. I have always been the low man on Green, and his down draft year fueled some others to come over to my point of view. He has made some careless errors at short, not taken a ton of walks, and not lived up to his home run/power expectations. Nonetheless this is a potential five-tool shortstop that Oakland is getting. If it all clicks, he's Troy Tulowitzki with a better bat. Even when he got draftitis, Green managed to hit about .370. I never thought Green was in the class of, say, Dustin Ackley, but I definitely like him at #13. Great value pick for the A's.
• As promised, the catcher position was a strong point for today. Eight backstops (3 college, 5 high school) were selected, and many more remain for tomorrow.
• The top overall remaining players for tomorrow include high schoolers Max Stassi (C), Brody Colvin (RHP), Madison Younginer (RHP), Zach Von Rosenberg (RHP), Keyvius Sampson (RHP), and Jeff Malm (1B), and collegians Sam Dyson (RHP), Chris Dwyer (LHP), Angelo Songco (OF), Brooks Raley (LHP), Ryan Jackson (SS), and Kendal Volz (RHP). There is a lot more talent to be had.
• Gotta love when the Astros, one of the lamest teams in the majors, have a bad draft. Houston had a good one last year to follow their '07 failure of epic proportions, so hopefully this year will screw up their system some more. Jiovanni Mier was a surprise first-round pick. The prep shortstop has a sound glove, but needs to improve his bat. RHP Tanner Bushue, the Stros' second-rounder, is an Illinois prepster who isn't overwhelming (88-90 mph with passable secondary stuff and some projection). 1B Telvin Nash is just a bad third-round pick, and Jonathan Meyer is good and versatile, but also inclined to head off to Cal State Fullerton. I'm hoping none of these prospects pan out for the Astros.
• Scott Boras and signability are going to have some crazy ramifications on this year's draft. Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate all are advised by the super-agent (and Tate has a two-sport scholarship to North Carolina), as are Jacob Turner (Tigers, 9th overall), Grant Green (A's, 13th overall), Andy Oliver (Tigers, 2nd round), Kentrail Davis (Brewers, supplemental), and many, many more. Aaron Crow and Matt Purke, both top 15 picks, will come with hefty price tags as well. Many negotiations will come down to the wire this year. (By the way, "the wire" is August 17 this year, as the signing date has been extended by 2 days.)
• I'll have my hypothetical draft up in a couple of weeks. Here's the first installment if you're curious. Day 2 of the draft, by the way, begins at noon ET.

Stephen Strasburg has crushing expectations to live up to

*Logo courtesy of www.mlb.com/Photo courtesy of goaztecs.cstv.com