2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com

State of the System: Baltimore Orioles

Quick Look
All signs are pointing in the right direction for the O's, despite their rugged division. Their ever-growing supply of young talent--from Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters; to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta--is well-documented. It will be fascinating to watch if they can ride their young stars to AL East contention a la the 2008 Rays. Check out Camden Crazies and OriolesProspects.com for more coverage of the O's.

Top Prospects

Brian Matusz, lhp

Age: 22 Level: MLB

Matusz is arguably the top lefty pitching prospect in the game. He combines plus stuff (low-90s fastball and 3 advanced offspeed offerings) with savvy and command beyond his years. Matusz also has a solid delivery, track record, and good makeup. The only quibble with Matusz is that he doesn't establish or work off his fastball enough. He flashed his upside with a promising September callup, though, and will be at the forefront of Baltimore's rotation for years to come.

Josh Bell, 3B

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Bell was the main return in this year's George Sherrill deal with the Dodgers, a boon for the O's. He hit .297/.378/.518 with 20 HRs and 35 2Bs during a breakout season Double-A this year, showcasing outstanding raw power and an improved feel for hitting (although his production comes almost exclusively from the left side). Bell's most important area of progress, however, was on defense. Despite a big frame, he showed that he works hard and has a good chance to play third, boosting his stock.

Zach Britton, lhp

Age: 21 Level: High-A-Double-A

The 6-2 lefty quietly continues to ascend the ladder. In 2009, despite some command struggles, Britton lowered his ERA (2.70 ERA) and raised his K/9 (8.4) for the third straight year. Roughly two years away from the majors, Britton features a heavy sinker, a 4-seam fastball, slider, and changeup, the last of which has improved immensely. I like Britton's groundball tendencies (3.38 GO/AO in 2009). He projects as a #3 starter.

Jake Arrieta

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Arrieta signed a slot-busting $1.1 bonus as a 5th-rounder in 2007 and proceeded to shine in High A in 2008. He backed up some in Triple-A this year, however, as his lack of command was exposed in the high minors. Arrieta will need to hone that aspect of his game to become a frontline starter (not to mention improving his below-average changeup), but his fastball (which reaches 96 mph) and tight slider will play in the bullpen at the very least. If he reaches his ceiling, he's a #2 starter.

Brandon Snyder, 1B

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Snyder has done a nice resurrection job on his career after a brutal 2006 campaign. The 2005 1st-rounder has a good, strong swing and is improving every year, showing some justification for his elevated draft status. This year, he hit .289/.362/.460 over 530 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A. Snyder doesn't have great BB-K rates and his career high in homers is 13, so it's unclear whether he can become an above-average player since he's relegated to an offensively-demanding position like first base. He is winning over more and more proponents each year, though.

Matt Hobgood, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Hobgood went 5th overall in the 2009 draft, perhaps a reach considering he was ranked about 5th just among prep pitchers. The California native is still a high-upside prospect, though. He dials his fastball up to 94-95 at times, drops in a devastating curve with two-plane break, and has a stocky frame that suggests durability will be no problem. The flip side is that he lacks a lot of projection. He also needs to hone a changeup. Like any high school arm, Hobgood will need a couple years of seasoning, but his ceiling ranks among the highest in Baltimore's organization.

Brandon Erbe, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Prospect fatigue has set in with Erbe, but it's easy to forget that he's still just 21 years old. Always young for his level, Erbe was hampered with shoulder issues this year (a result of his delivery, maybe?), limiting him to 73 IP in Double-A. While he may not stay in the rotation because of troublesome command, the slender Baltimore native has closer potential. His electric fastball touches 96 and his slider is a plus pitch at times, featuring hard late break. A full, steady 2010 season would be a step in the right direction for Erbe.

Ryan Berry, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-High A

Tabbed by the Orioles in the 8th round this year, I have many a time touted Berry as an excellent value pick. He could have gone in the supplemental-round range if there weren't concerns about the health of his shoulder. When healthy, Berry aggressively pounds the zone with an average fastball, plus knucklecurve, changeup, and occasional slider. He's pretty advanced, and he could rise swiftly through Baltimore's system if he returns to health (not a given considering the track record of Rice hurlers).

Mychal Givens, rhp/ss

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Givens, a high-profile 2009 draftee, signed for $800,000 in the second round. He has plenty of tools as a position player, but he's raw, and may be a better bet on the mound. Givens reaches 97 mph from a near-sidearm slot, but is probably destined for the bullpen. The Tampa native has a lot of upside, but he also has his share of flaws.

Randy Henry, rhp

Age: 20 Level: none-High A

Henry has gotten little exposure in his career, having been limited by Tommy John surgery and a low-profile college (South Mountain CC). The O's aren't what sure what they have with their 4th pick in this year's draft, but they know he has touched the mid-90s to go along with a changeup and a curveball. It will be interesting to monitor him in 2010.

Others: RHPs Kam Mickolio, Luis Lebron, Bobby Bundy, and Brett Jacobson; LHPs Cameron Coffey and Ashur Tolliver; 3B Brandon Waring; C Caleb Joseph; OFs Ronnie Welty and Matt Angle

Impact Talent: B

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Jake Cowan, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A

Cowan looks poised to put his name in the conversation of top Orioles pitching prospects. He throws a low-90s fastball with good sinking action, tosses a low-80s slider, spins a soft 12-6 curve that could be plus in the future, and mixes in a changeup. A 2009 draftee from San Jacinto JC, Cowan is projectable and will progress quickly.