All signs are pointing in the right direction for the O's, despite their rugged division. Their ever-growing supply of young talent--from Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters; to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta--is well-documented. It will be fascinating to watch if they can ride their young stars to AL East contention a la the 2008 Rays. Check out Camden Crazies and OriolesProspects.com for more coverage of the O's.
Top Prospects
Brian Matusz, lhp
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Matusz is arguably the top lefty pitching prospect in the game. He combines plus stuff (low-90s fastball and 3 advanced offspeed offerings) with savvy and command beyond his years. Matusz also has a solid delivery, track record, and good makeup. The only quibble with Matusz is that he doesn't establish or work off his fastball enough. He flashed his upside with a promising September callup, though, and will be at the forefront of Baltimore's rotation for years to come.
Josh Bell, 3B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Bell was the main return in this year's George Sherrill deal with the Dodgers, a boon for the O's. He hit .297/.378/.518 with 20 HRs and 35 2Bs during a breakout season Double-A this year, showcasing outstanding raw power and an improved feel for hitting (although his production comes almost exclusively from the left side). Bell's most important area of progress, however, was on defense. Despite a big frame, he showed that he works hard and has a good chance to play third, boosting his stock.
Zach Britton, lhp
Age: 21 Level: High-A-Double-A
The 6-2 lefty quietly continues to ascend the ladder. In 2009, despite some command struggles, Britton lowered his ERA (2.70 ERA) and raised his K/9 (8.4) for the third straight year. Roughly two years away from the majors, Britton features a heavy sinker, a 4-seam fastball, slider, and changeup, the last of which has improved immensely. I like Britton's groundball tendencies (3.38 GO/AO in 2009). He projects as a #3 starter.
Jake Arrieta
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Arrieta signed a slot-busting $1.1 bonus as a 5th-rounder in 2007 and proceeded to shine in High A in 2008. He backed up some in Triple-A this year, however, as his lack of command was exposed in the high minors. Arrieta will need to hone that aspect of his game to become a frontline starter (not to mention improving his below-average changeup), but his fastball (which reaches 96 mph) and tight slider will play in the bullpen at the very least. If he reaches his ceiling, he's a #2 starter.
Brandon Snyder, 1B
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Snyder has done a nice resurrection job on his career after a brutal 2006 campaign. The 2005 1st-rounder has a good, strong swing and is improving every year, showing some justification for his elevated draft status. This year, he hit .289/.362/.460 over 530 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A. Snyder doesn't have great BB-K rates and his career high in homers is 13, so it's unclear whether he can become an above-average player since he's relegated to an offensively-demanding position like first base. He is winning over more and more proponents each year, though.
Matt Hobgood, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Hobgood went 5th overall in the 2009 draft, perhaps a reach considering he was ranked about 5th just among prep pitchers. The California native is still a high-upside prospect, though. He dials his fastball up to 94-95 at times, drops in a devastating curve with two-plane break, and has a stocky frame that suggests durability will be no problem. The flip side is that he lacks a lot of projection. He also needs to hone a changeup. Like any high school arm, Hobgood will need a couple years of seasoning, but his ceiling ranks among the highest in Baltimore's organization.
Brandon Erbe, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Prospect fatigue has set in with Erbe, but it's easy to forget that he's still just 21 years old. Always young for his level, Erbe was hampered with shoulder issues this year (a result of his delivery, maybe?), limiting him to 73 IP in Double-A. While he may not stay in the rotation because of troublesome command, the slender Baltimore native has closer potential. His electric fastball touches 96 and his slider is a plus pitch at times, featuring hard late break. A full, steady 2010 season would be a step in the right direction for Erbe.
Ryan Berry, rhp
Age: 21 Level: none-High A
Tabbed by the Orioles in the 8th round this year, I have many a time touted Berry as an excellent value pick. He could have gone in the supplemental-round range if there weren't concerns about the health of his shoulder. When healthy, Berry aggressively pounds the zone with an average fastball, plus knucklecurve, changeup, and occasional slider. He's pretty advanced, and he could rise swiftly through Baltimore's system if he returns to health (not a given considering the track record of Rice hurlers).
Mychal Givens, rhp/ss
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Givens, a high-profile 2009 draftee, signed for $800,000 in the second round. He has plenty of tools as a position player, but he's raw, and may be a better bet on the mound. Givens reaches 97 mph from a near-sidearm slot, but is probably destined for the bullpen. The Tampa native has a lot of upside, but he also has his share of flaws.
Randy Henry, rhp
Age: 20 Level: none-High A
Henry has gotten little exposure in his career, having been limited by Tommy John surgery and a low-profile college (South Mountain CC). The O's aren't what sure what they have with their 4th pick in this year's draft, but they know he has touched the mid-90s to go along with a changeup and a curveball. It will be interesting to monitor him in 2010.
Others: RHPs Kam Mickolio, Luis Lebron, Bobby Bundy, and Brett Jacobson; LHPs Cameron Coffey and Ashur Tolliver; 3B Brandon Waring; C Caleb Joseph; OFs Ronnie Welty and Matt Angle
Impact Talent: B
Farm System Depth: B-
2010 Breakout Prospect
Jake Cowan, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A
Cowan looks poised to put his name in the conversation of top Orioles pitching prospects. He throws a low-90s fastball with good sinking action, tosses a low-80s slider, spins a soft 12-6 curve that could be plus in the future, and mixes in a changeup. A 2009 draftee from San Jacinto JC, Cowan is projectable and will progress quickly.
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