Wednesday, October 14, 2009

State of the System: Chicago White Sox

Quick Look
The White Sox are in obvious need of retooling, considering their bloated payroll and veteran team carried them nowhere this year. They have some pieces in place (I'm looking at you, Gordon Beckham) to return to the playoffs, but they'll need more coming from within (particularly if Kenny Williams decides not to splurge on a free agent). Fortunately, the farm system has climbed out of the abyss it was in a couple years ago, showing some encouraging signs of progress. The trio at the top of this list has separated itself from the rest of the pack. The White Sox also need to continue to draft well; their last two editions have been solid.

Top Prospects
Tyler Flowers, c
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Flowers has pretty much proven that he is going to hit in the majors. The key piece in last winter's Javy Vazquez trade, the Chipola JC product posted at least a .920 OPS in the high minors the last two seasons and obliterated the Arizona Fall League. Despite an unorthodox set-up, Flowers makes booming contact and draws plenty of free passes. Built like a rock (6-4, 245), his recent defensive progress makes sticking at catcher a good possibility, although he'll never be a standout behind the dish. Still, it makes Flowers' value even higher. He should take over for A.J. Pierzynski full-time by 2011.

Jared Mitchell, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
Mitchell had an eventful summer, leading LSU to a College World Series title, winning the CWS Most Outstanding Player award, and being selected in the 1st round by the White Sox. A Carl Crawford-type player, Mitchell has blazing speed, magnificent athleticism, a good eye at the plate, and some pop in his bat. His hit tool is unpolished, but he already hits to the opposite field with ease and has excellent aptitude. Mitchell will take longer to develop than most top college players (he's lost many reps to football over the years) and his strikeout totals are concerning, but Mitchell has a chance to pay off in a big way.

Dan Hudson, rhp
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Hudson rose in stunning, meteoric, whirlwind fashion in 2009, starting in Low A and pitching at every rung on the way to Chicago. The '08 draftee is now squarely in the Southsiders' future rotation plans, most likely towards the middle. Hudson displayed improving control of a 90-94 mph fastball, above-average changeup, and slider (which he sometimes casts) over 160 innings this year. The Old Dominion product has a funky arm motion, but it's hard to argue with the results.

Jordan Danks, of
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Danks couldn't shed the "underachiever" label at Texas, where he struggled to hit for power even with a metal bat. He still hasn't translated his raw juice into game power, but the big-bodied centerfielder did flash his other tools this year. Before struggling after a promotion to Double-A, he made consistent contact, played good defense, and stole some bases. He was exposed offensively in Double-A, and he needs to improve his plate discipline and approach. The lefty-swinger has a good enough all-around game that he still has a chance to become a big league regular even if he never learns to leverage his swing and frame into more homers. Danks needs at least another year of seasoning before he can join his brother John in Chicago.

Brent Morel, 3B
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
Morel was a slight overdraft last year (3rd round), but he is still a decent prospect. He is an athletic third baseman, and his hands and instincts make him an above-average defender. His line-drive approach works for him. While he doesn't possess great raw power or take many walks, he doesn't whiff much either. Morel is a blue-collar player whose feel for the game allows his solid tools to play up. (Case in point, he swiped 25 bases in the Carolina League this year despite average speed.) He'll move up to Double-A next year, and he could become a big league regular at the hot corner (albeit probably a second-division regular).

David Holmberg, lhp
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
A big, soft-bodied lefty who was given $514,000 in the 2nd round to forgo a Florida commitment, Holmberg projects as a mid-rotation starter. He needs to add velocity to his 87-88 mph fastball, but he already has enough offspeed stuff to succeed without overwhelming heat. He has an above-average curveball, a plus changeup, and even a slider that he throws for strikes. It will be interesting to see how Holmberg's diverse repertoire fares in the South Atlantic League next year.

John Ely, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Ely lacks top draft pedigree or great upside, but he has steadily worked his way to the doorstep of the big leagues. The Miami (Ohio) product has a 86-88 mph fastball that scrapes 90, a deceptive changeup that is his bread-and-butter, and an ineffective curveball. He competes well and pounds the zone, but Ely has an unconventional delivery and will need to keep proving he can get advanced batters out. He may be a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.

Josh Phegley, c
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
The squat Phegley was one of the nation's best backstops at Indiana. He finished as the runner-up to Buster Posey for the highest batting average in the country as a sophomore, and went in the 2nd round of the draft this year as a junior. Phegley has a compact swing that allows him to lace line drives. He doesn't have huge power, but the bigger concern is his fringy defense. Phegley isn't especially agile or athletic, but his hard work should make him a serviceable defender. He had a brutal pro debut for Kannapolis, and he'll need to show that was an aberration. Tyler Flowers is in front of him, but Phegley could at least be Chicago's backup in a couple of years.

Nathan Jones, rhp
Age: 23 Level: High A-Triple-A
Jones has always had an electric arm. This year was the first time he neared the strike zone, though. Assuming the control gains are for real, the Northern Kentucky product profiles as a set-up man or better. His fastball often buzzes in at 98 and his filthy curveball also racks up strikeouts.

Trayce Thompson, of
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Rookie
Thompson, the son of former NBA player Mychal Thompson, has as much upside as anyone on this list. He has a loose and lanky frame, big-time power potential, a plus arm, and runs well. All that's holding him back is a feel for hitting, as he is allergic to breaking balls and has an unrefined eye and approach at the plate. Thompson could blossom into a star--or never reach Double-A.

Others: RHPs Brandon Hynick, Jhonny Nunez, Carlos Torres, and Charlie Shirek; LHP Santos Rodriguez; 3B Dayan Viciedo; OFs Stefan Gartrell and Nick Ciolli; 2B C.J. Retherford; C Miguel Gonzalez
Impact Talent: C-
Farm System Depth: C-

2010 Breakout Prospect
Ryan Buch, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Rookie-High A
Buch had an inauspicious professional debut, particularly for a collegian in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, walking a batter per inning and uncorking 5 wild pitches. With Chicago's track record of unearthing forgotten power arms (think Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton), the former Monmouth hurler is worth keeping an eye on. He throws a 92-95 mph fastball and a nasty curveball, and he could take off in a bullpen role.

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