Wednesday, October 28, 2009

State of the System: Cleveland Indians

Quick Look
The Indians' 2009 season was not pretty. On top of a tied-for-last finish, a managerial firing, and an overall lack of cohesiveness, they traded ace Cliff Lee and slugger Victor Martinez. The bright side is that Cleveland's supply of young talent is rapidly growing.

Top Prospects
Carlos Santana, c
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Santana was the gem of the 2008 Casey Blake deal with the Dodgers. A former outfielder, he brings some athleticism behind the plate (despite a bulky 5-11, 190+ lb. frame). He also has a strong arm, although Santana is still refining his blocking and receiving skills, and defense will never be his calling card. The Dominican native will be known for his bat, though, as the switch-hitter draws a good share of walks, projects for 20+ homers, and hits for a solid average. Santana is one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and will be very similar (down to the stance) to the player he'll permanently replace, Victor Martinez .

Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Chisenhall recovered from grand larceny charges and dismissal from the South Carolina baseball team in 2007 to become a 2008 1st-round pick. The 6-1, 200-pounder shifted from shortstop to third base in High A this year, showing the offensive skills to profile as a regular there. Chisenhall, who batted .276/.346/.492 before struggling after a promotion, has a level swing that he repeats well. His hand-eye coordination, pitch recognition skills, and strength portend average, if not above-average, power to go along with his. Chisenhall has modest athleticism and unspectacular defensive skills, but he works hard enough to be a solid defender at the hot corner. He has seemed to learn from his legal issues.

Age: 21 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Rondon has steadily climbed through the system, finishing 2009 with a solid initial stint in Triple-A. The wiry Venezuelan has a dominating low-90s fastball, which touches 94-96 mph and has late life. Rondon places his heater with precision, and has the confidence to challenge hitters with the pitch. His secondary pitches leave something to be desired, but he has worked hard to bring them up to snuff. Rondon's mid-80s slider is inconsistent, and his changeup shows flashes, but is usually too firm. He is on the verge of helping the big league club.

Nick Hagadone, lhp
Age: 23 Level: High A-Triple-A
Hagadone, a product of the Martinez deal, was a supplemental-rounder for the Red Sox in 2007. Tommy John surgery knocked him out for a year, but he returned this summer and should be ready to throw a full season in 2010. Though he'll be 24 and his command needs refinement, I like Hagadone's huge arm. Aside from a 92-97 mph fastball and a plus, power slider, Hagadone has made strides with a changeup that could allow him to be a starter.

Alex White, rhp
Age: 22 Level: none
The North Carolina ace was popped in the middle of the first round this year. His backers see a durable, competitive, athletic hurler with a 91-94 mph fastball that peaks at 96, not to mention a slider and splitter both capable of getting outs. Detractors point to his inconsistency, nagging injuries, unorthodox delivery, and occasional regression of his secondary offerings. Either way, White shouldn't take too long to trek through the minors. He'll be much more valuable if Cleveland decides to develop him as a starter.

Nick Weglarz, of
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Weglarz struggled through the first half of 2009, but recovered to put up respectable numbers for a 21-year-old in Double-A (75-78 BB-K ratio and .808 OPS). An enormous (6-3, 245) Canadian drafted in 2005, Weglarz is too massive and sloth-like to play the outfield long-term, though he could stick in left for a couple more years. His value lies in his bat. Weglarz takes an exorbitant amount of walks (15.5 career BB%) and has outstanding lefthanded power. His contact skills are poor, but Weglarz could easily be a mashing DH.

Carlos Carrasco, rhp
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Carrasco has been a prospect seemingly forever. Back in 2006, he decimated the South Atlantic League on the strength of a lethal fastball-changeup combo, making himself one of the better righthanded pitching prospects in the game in the process. The durable Venezuelan, who came over from the Phillies in the Lee trade, posted an unsightly 8.87 ERA and 11-11 K-BB ratio in the majors this year, displaying how erratic and frustrating he can be despite his stuff. Carrasco's 92-96 mph fastball, plus changeup, and hard curveball mark him as a future ace, but he needs to greatly improve his command, lose the "soft" label, boost his self-confidence, and become more consistent.

Jess Todd, rhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Another recent trade acquisition, Todd was a piece in the Mark DeRosa trade. The former Arkansas Razorback has a squat build (5-11, 210) and funky pitching motion, but it seems to work for him. Looking past his uneven MLB debut this year, he's been particularly effective since his move to the bullpen. Todd features a 92-93 mph fastball with good sink, a nasty slider, and a cutter. His delivery does serve to make him deceptive, and Todd will return to the Indians' bullpen next year.

Lou Marson, c
Age: 23 Level: MLB
The Scottsdale native, who was a part of the Lee deal, definitely lacks the "wow" factor. His defense is average, his arm is fringy, and he socked a whopping 2 home runs this year. Marson is steady in all facets of the game, though, explaining why he's in contention for a major league roster spot. He compensates for his arm with accuracy and a quick transfer, he makes consistent contact at the plate, and he has superb plate discipline. Nonetheless, Marson has only once during his six-year career posted an OPS above .780. He hits too many groundballs to project as much of an offensive threat. Developing at least enough power to keep pitchers honest will be the key to Marson becoming a starting backstop instead of a backup.

Michael Brantley, of
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Brantley has uncanny bat control and a sound batting eye. He has incredibly amassed more walks than strikeouts at every rung of the minors, and he projects as a .300 hitter to boot. Brantley also has plus speed and is a weapon on the basepaths, although his wheels do not translate as well in the field because he takes suspect routes to the ball. That, along with a below-average arm, makes Brantley a fringy center fielder or relegates him to left. It's doubtful he will ever grow into enough juice to become a star there. Like Marson, he will have to make pitchers respect him, which 12 HRs in 2200+ career PAs does not help. Brantley still should be a quality outfielder.

Jason Knapp, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
Knapp has the highest ceiling, and also the biggest bust potential, of the players acquired in the Cliff Lee trade. The New Jersey native's fastball comfortably resides in the low- to mid-90s and tops out at 98 mph. His hard breaking ball gives batters another look. However intimidating, though, Knapp is very raw and shows the flaws of a typical young pitcher. (He is wild and lacks a third trusty offering.) Most troublesome, Knapp has a violent delivery and awkard arm action, perhaps explaining his shoulder woes this year. He probably fits better as a two-pitch back-of-the-bullpen force. Knapp is electric, but he has a lot to prove before I jump on the bandwagon.

Others: RHP Alex Perez; OF Jason Kipnis; LHPs T.J. House, Kelvin de la Cruz, and Scott Barnes
Impact Talent: B+
Farm System Depth: A-

2010 Breakout Prospect
Jordan Henry, of
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A
Henry, Cleveland's 7th-rounder this year, has blazing speed and is a good defensive outfielder. The former Ole Miss star also controls the strike zone superbly and picks his spots well on the basepaths. The only thing missing is power; despite a 6-1 frame, Henry is rail-thin and didn't homer all year (over more than 100 games). If that trend continues, pitchers will just knock the bat out of his hands in the future. Henry has the room to add 30 pounds, and if he can keep pitchers honest, he'll be a major weapon. I think he'll thrive next year, most likely at High A Kinston.

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