Cincinnati has several interesting young pieces: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Drew Stubbs, and others. As a middle-of-the-road small-market team, though, everything needs to break right for them to make a playoff run. Their farm system, which was plentiful a couple years back, has taken steps backward. They aren't the Pirates, and they are doing some things right, but I don't think the Reds are quite ready to get over the hump. We'll see if the next wave of prospects helps.
Top Prospects
Yonder Alonso, 1B
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Alonso, the 8th overall draft pick last year, has an advanced bat, but was unfortunately sidelined much of this year with a hand injury. Assuming he regains his strength, he'll produce a .300 average with 30 homers and bushels of bases on balls. Alonso is anchored to first, so he may push Votto (who is incredible, by the way) to left field. Alonso will start 2010 in Triple-A (where he spent the playoffs this year), trying to prove he can hit top-flight pitching as well as he has punished its mediocre counterpart.
Todd Frazier, 3B/LF
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Frazier uses an unorthodox approach to get offensive results. He has posted an .800 OPS or better at five levels of the minors. The former Rutgers shortstop is big at 6-3, 215, but he'd profile well at third base. He projects for 20+ homers, and his good instincts and moderate athleticism make him a serviceable defensive player. The Reds brass has mishandled him, though, shifting him all over the diamond and not taking the time to let him master a position. I like him better than Juan Francisco, and Frazier deserves to take over the hot corner in Cincinnati next year. He's everyday-regular material.
Mike Leake, rhp
Age: 21 Level: none-Double-A
Leake is hands-down my favorite prospect. The athletic righty had an epic career at Arizona State, setting numerous Sun Devil pitching records, leading the team to Omaha twice, and completing a junior season that ranks as one of the best single-season college pitching performances ever. Leake isn't an elite pro prospect, as he is just 6-0 and his fastball doesn't exceed the 88-93 mph range. He does enough right, however, to project as a future mid-rotation starter, if not an ace. Leake is durable and has a compact delivery, commands his fastball with excellent sink, throws several quality offspeed pitches at will, attacks batters aggressively, and has superb makeup. I'm eager to watch him translate his skills to pro ball.
Chris Heisey, of
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Heisey was on the path to becoming a teacher until the Reds took a flier on him out of tiny Messiah College. He has since rocketed to Triple-A, showing off a well-rounded, if not flashy game, and nabbing an appearance in the Futures Game this year. Heisey is a solid outfielder who can play all three spots adequately. He makes consistent contact at the plate and has decent power. He is a smart baserunner, and his instincts and plus makeup make all facets of his game play up. Heisey will be 25 next year, and doesn't project as a star. He is knocking on the door to the big leagues, though, and I wouldn't bet against him carving out a role as a regular.
Travis Wood, lhp
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Wood had a breakthrough season, leading the minors in ERA a year after he looked like he'd fizzled out in Double-A. The pint-sized lefty tops out at 90 mph and sits at 87-88, but he commands the inner half, has a terrific changeup, and has added a cutter for another weapon. His ceiling is a #4 or #5 starter, and he should get a shot in Cincinnati next year.
Brad Boxberger, rhp
Age: 21 Level: none-High A
Boxberger, who signed for $857,000 this year, had an uneven career at USC, dominating as the Trojans' ace at times while floundering in the bullpen at others. The best-case scenario for him is a mid-rotation starter, as his fastball hits 94 (and sits a few ticks lower), and his curveball, slider, and changeup have potential. Boxberger profiles better as a reliever for me, given his command and inconsistency. A sturdy 6-footer, Boxberger will require roughly two years of minor league seasoning.
Juan Francisco, 3B
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Francisco is one of the most well-known, polarizing prospects in the game. His gargantuan raw power (75 homers the last 3 years with more in the tank) and cannon arm give him tantalizing upside. The Dominican-born lefty-hitter has also made some strides in becoming more consistent as well. For all of his talent, though, Francisco has no clue how to control the strike zone (72-442 career MiLB BB-K ratio in 1800 ABs), portending perennial .300-.315 OBPs when major league pitchers exploit his aggressive nature. His big body and lumbering actions make him sticking at third unfeasible. Francisco will undoubtedly have a major league career, but so did Wily Mo Pena.
Daniel Tuttle, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
A 2009 draftee, Tuttle showed his value with a power run in his GCL debut. He has been knocked for troublesome mechanical flaws in his delivery, but it looks fine to me. Tuttle has a power arm, with a fastball often ranging from 90-94 mph, a slider that shows plus potential, and a rudimentary changeup. He'll presumably tackle the Midwest League next year, and gauge whether he fits better in the rotation or bullpen. Either way he's one of the better young arms that the Reds have.
Donnie Joseph, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
Lefties with arm strength rarely go unnoticed, and the Reds selected Joseph in the 3rd round this year after he made great strides during the spring. Joseph reached Low A in his debut, showing a high ceiling, and also some wildness. Besides his 90-93 mph fastball, the former Houston Cougar throws a biting slider that makes him more than a lefty specialist. He does need to hone his control, but assuming he stays in his current bullpen role, Joseph will rise rapidly.
Yorman Rodriguez, of
Age: 17 Level: Rookie-Low A
Rodriguez received one of the largest bonuses for a Latin American amateur ever in 2008, taking home $2.5 million. He has hours of work to do with the bat to justify that investment. Rodriguez flails at offspeed pitches and the all-important hit tool is easily his weakest. He is swift (in the field and on the basepaths), has a plus arm, and even has some raw power. Rodriguez is a high-upside, high-risk project who could take 5 more years in the minors--putting his MLB debut at age 22.
Others: RHPs Kyle Lotzkar and J.C. Sulbaran; SSs Zack Cozart and Chris Valaika; 3B Neftali Soto
Impact Talent: C
Farm System Depth: C-
2010 Breakout Prospect
Mariekson Gregorius, ss
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
The Dutch-born Gregorius sprays hits all around the field from the left side. He has athleticism and speed, and should be able to stick at short. Gregorius doesn't have much power at this stage and needs time to refine his skills. After batting.314/.363/.387 in the Pioneer League this year, he will be very interesting to watch progress next year.
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