Reds at Cubs, March 13

I went to see the Reds/Cubs game last Saturday at HoHoKam Park in Mesa. (Here is the box score from the game, which the Cubs won handily.) This NL Central contest was a real delight to take in, due in no small part to the numerous prospects and young big leaguers who played.

I was pumped to see Starlin Castro and Yonder Alonso in the starting lineups

I arrived nearly 3 hours before game time and had ample time to kick back and watch batting and infield practice

Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro was my primary focus. The Dominican Republic native has been anointed as the team's top prospect, and some want the 19-year-old to begin the season in the majors. (I would give Castro at least a few more months of minor league seasoning. He only has 120 plate appearances above Single A and can only offer the Cubs an empty batting average at this point. Castro makes contact with ease and his wOBA last season hovered around .340, but he has yet to post a .400 SLG or a walk rate above 6.0% in full-season ball. Chicago should keep the talented youngster in the minors rather than unnecessarily rushing him, but I digress.) Castro has a knack for contact, and while he hasn't developed much power yet, he had a solid showing in BP.

Castro grounded out thrice in actual game action:

Castro's defense is generally praised, but the 6-0, 190-pounder is not an above-average runner and whether he possesses the range necessary for shortstop remains to be seen. Here he is taking grounders before the game:

Starlin Castro

Starlin Castro (alongside Aramis Ramirez)

Hak-Ju Lee, Chicago's other premier middle infield prospect, also received a couple at-bats in the game. Lee hit .330/.399/.420 with 25 SB in the Short-Season Northwest League in 2009.

I snapped lots of photos of Cincinnati players, but unfortunately didn't see Aroldis Chapman.

OF Drew Stubbs

OF Chris Heisey

3B Juan Francisco and OF Wladimir Balentien

Jim Adduci, an unheralded 24-year-old outfielder with limited power but who put up a .362 wOBA in Double-A last season, started in right field for the Cubs. Spring results are meaningless, but Adduci put good swings on a few pitches.

Juan Francisco provided the fireworks for the Reds. I still doubt a player with a career MiLB 3.8 BB% and .311 OBP will be an above-average big league bat, but Francisco's power is simply prodigious and he put it on display with a pair of homers against the Cubs:

Contrary to what the pre-game lineup stated, Logan Watkins did not get the start for the Cubs. Instead, Darwin Barney got the nod at second base. Barney looked good with a diving stop and a couple of line drives, but I was hoping to get the chance to see Watkins. Both are promising middle infield prospects with steady defensive skills, but ultimately I wonder if their bats will be loud enough for them to surface as big league regulars. Watkins (.065) and Barney (.076) had meager showings in the IsoP department in 2009. The former entered Saturday's game for one AB and went down looking:

Logan Watkins at second base

Hard-hitting 1B Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati's #1 prospect:

Here are a couple more vids and pics from the game.

Todd Frazier

Drew Stubbs

Yonder Alonso

2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com

State of the System: Cincinnati Reds

Quick Look

Cincinnati has several interesting young pieces: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Drew Stubbs, and others. As a middle-of-the-road small-market team, though, everything needs to break right for them to make a playoff run. Their farm system, which was plentiful a couple years back, has taken steps backward. They aren't the Pirates, and they are doing some things right, but I don't think the Reds are quite ready to get over the hump. We'll see if the next wave of prospects helps.

Top Prospects

Yonder Alonso, 1B

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Alonso, the 8th overall draft pick last year, has an advanced bat, but was unfortunately sidelined much of this year with a hand injury. Assuming he regains his strength, he'll produce a .300 average with 30 homers and bushels of bases on balls. Alonso is anchored to first, so he may push Votto (who is incredible, by the way) to left field. Alonso will start 2010 in Triple-A (where he spent the playoffs this year), trying to prove he can hit top-flight pitching as well as he has punished its mediocre counterpart.

Todd Frazier, 3B/LF

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Frazier uses an unorthodox approach to get offensive results. He has posted an .800 OPS or better at five levels of the minors. The former Rutgers shortstop is big at 6-3, 215, but he'd profile well at third base. He projects for 20+ homers, and his good instincts and moderate athleticism make him a serviceable defensive player. The Reds brass has mishandled him, though, shifting him all over the diamond and not taking the time to let him master a position. I like him better than Juan Francisco, and Frazier deserves to take over the hot corner in Cincinnati next year. He's everyday-regular material.

Mike Leake, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-Double-A

Leake is hands-down my favorite prospect. The athletic righty had an epic career at Arizona State, setting numerous Sun Devil pitching records, leading the team to Omaha twice, and completing a junior season that ranks as one of the best single-season college pitching performances ever. Leake isn't an elite pro prospect, as he is just 6-0 and his fastball doesn't exceed the 88-93 mph range. He does enough right, however, to project as a future mid-rotation starter, if not an ace. Leake is durable and has a compact delivery, commands his fastball with excellent sink, throws several quality offspeed pitches at will, attacks batters aggressively, and has superb makeup. I'm eager to watch him translate his skills to pro ball.

Chris Heisey, of

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Heisey was on the path to becoming a teacher until the Reds took a flier on him out of tiny Messiah College. He has since rocketed to Triple-A, showing off a well-rounded, if not flashy game, and nabbing an appearance in the Futures Game this year. Heisey is a solid outfielder who can play all three spots adequately. He makes consistent contact at the plate and has decent power. He is a smart baserunner, and his instincts and plus makeup make all facets of his game play up. Heisey will be 25 next year, and doesn't project as a star. He is knocking on the door to the big leagues, though, and I wouldn't bet against him carving out a role as a regular.

Travis Wood, lhp

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Wood had a breakthrough season, leading the minors in ERA a year after he looked like he'd fizzled out in Double-A. The pint-sized lefty tops out at 90 mph and sits at 87-88, but he commands the inner half, has a terrific changeup, and has added a cutter for another weapon. His ceiling is a #4 or #5 starter, and he should get a shot in Cincinnati next year.

Brad Boxberger, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-High A

Boxberger, who signed for $857,000 this year, had an uneven career at USC, dominating as the Trojans' ace at times while floundering in the bullpen at others. The best-case scenario for him is a mid-rotation starter, as his fastball hits 94 (and sits a few ticks lower), and his curveball, slider, and changeup have potential. Boxberger profiles better as a reliever for me, given his command and inconsistency. A sturdy 6-footer, Boxberger will require roughly two years of minor league seasoning.

Juan Francisco, 3B

Age: 22 Level: MLB

Francisco is one of the most well-known, polarizing prospects in the game. His gargantuan raw power (75 homers the last 3 years with more in the tank) and cannon arm give him tantalizing upside. The Dominican-born lefty-hitter has also made some strides in becoming more consistent as well. For all of his talent, though, Francisco has no clue how to control the strike zone (72-442 career MiLB BB-K ratio in 1800 ABs), portending perennial .300-.315 OBPs when major league pitchers exploit his aggressive nature. His big body and lumbering actions make him sticking at third unfeasible. Francisco will undoubtedly have a major league career, but so did Wily Mo Pena.

Daniel Tuttle, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

A 2009 draftee, Tuttle showed his value with a power run in his GCL debut. He has been knocked for troublesome mechanical flaws in his delivery, but it looks fine to me. Tuttle has a power arm, with a fastball often ranging from 90-94 mph, a slider that shows plus potential, and a rudimentary changeup. He'll presumably tackle the Midwest League next year, and gauge whether he fits better in the rotation or bullpen. Either way he's one of the better young arms that the Reds have.

Donnie Joseph, lhp

Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A

Lefties with arm strength rarely go unnoticed, and the Reds selected Joseph in the 3rd round this year after he made great strides during the spring. Joseph reached Low A in his debut, showing a high ceiling, and also some wildness. Besides his 90-93 mph fastball, the former Houston Cougar throws a biting slider that makes him more than a lefty specialist. He does need to hone his control, but assuming he stays in his current bullpen role, Joseph will rise rapidly.

Yorman Rodriguez, of

Age: 17 Level: Rookie-Low A

Rodriguez received one of the largest bonuses for a Latin American amateur ever in 2008, taking home $2.5 million. He has hours of work to do with the bat to justify that investment. Rodriguez flails at offspeed pitches and the all-important hit tool is easily his weakest. He is swift (in the field and on the basepaths), has a plus arm, and even has some raw power. Rodriguez is a high-upside, high-risk project who could take 5 more years in the minors--putting his MLB debut at age 22.

Others: RHPs Kyle Lotzkar and J.C. Sulbaran; SSs Zack Cozart and Chris Valaika; 3B Neftali Soto

Impact Talent: C

Farm System Depth: C-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Mariekson Gregorius, ss

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

The Dutch-born Gregorius sprays hits all around the field from the left side. He has athleticism and speed, and should be able to stick at short. Gregorius doesn't have much power at this stage and needs time to refine his skills. After batting.314/.363/.387 in the Pioneer League this year, he will be very interesting to watch progress next year.