Quick Look
This season was a microcosm of the Chicago Cubs in the 21st century. They underachieved in spite of a huge payroll and a boatload of talented players, creating headaches for Northsiders. But there were several positive developments on the farm. The key for the Cubs to get back to the playoffs will be infusing homegrown players into the lineup instead of over-priced, chemistry-deprived free agents.
Top Prospects
Starlin Castro, ss
Age: 19 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Coming off just 215 PAs in Rookie-ball in 2008, Castro's precocious hand-eye coordination, contact ability, and constant energy allowed him to vault to Double-A by the end of his age-19 season. Castro more than held his own, batting .299/.342/.392, maintaining a low (10.4%) K rate, stealing nearly 30 bases, and playing above-average defense. Scouts love his quick, loose swing and project him to be an excellent contact hitter. While exciting, he has a long way to go (most teenagers do). Listed at 160 lbs. and with a .093 IsoP, Castro will need to get stronger and learn to drive the ball. His aggressive approach also needs to be toned down. Concerns have recently surfaced about Castro's speed. It's imperative that he develops some power and is able to stick at short if he's bound for stardom.
Josh Vitters, 3B
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
Vitters, the 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft, has a picture-perfect swing and a knack for making contact and hitting for power. He mashed in Low A this year (.316/.351/.535 with 15 HRs), but his swing-at-everything approach caught up to him after a promotion (.238/.260/.344). Vitters may have to move over to first base in the future as well, limiting his upside. In short, Vitters could be the next Aramis Ramirez, or his lack of patience (his overall walk rate in 2009 was an unsightly 2.5%) at the plate could mean he'll be exploited by advanced pitchers and struggle to post a league-average OBP. He'll have to make some adjustments, offensively and defensively, in 2010 to maintain top-prospect status.
Brett Jackson, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
The lefty-hitting Jackson was an enigma for scouts at Cal, showing first-round tools but striking out with alarming frequency. The Cubs saw enough to indeed pop him in Round 1, and he justified their faith with a strong pro debut. (He hit .318/.418/.488 with 8 home runs, 13 steals, and a 31-56 BB-K ratio in 211 ABs). Possibly relaxed without the draft looming in front of him, Jackson was able to make some strides with the bat, although Ks will be his biggest hindrance as he progresses. A toolsy centerfielder with a flair for the dramatic, Jackson will continue to work on his approach in 2010 (a common thread among Cubs prospects), most likely for Daytona.
Jay Jackson, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A-MLB
A low-profile 9th-round pick, Jackson has been a revelation for the Cubs. Though wild, he handled batters at three levels this year, fanning a batter per inning. Jackson's firm low-90s fastball, plus slider, and workable changeup and curveball give him a high ceiling. He'll pitch for Iowa next year, looking to hone his command and get more ground balls.
Hak-Ju Lee, ss
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
A prized international prospect who signed with the Cubs for $725,000 in 2008, Lee busted out this year in the Northwest League, hitting .330/.399/.420 (with 25 steals) and earning top prospect honors in that circuit. The Korean-born Lee shows the tools to become a championship-caliber starter: He has plus-plus speed, makes hard contact with the promise of some gap power, and is a flashy, if erratic, defender up the middle. He also displayed solid control of the strike zone, with a 10.2 BB% and 16.4 K%. If he improves his consistency next year, Lee could find himself in the discussion as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game.
Andrew Cashner, rhpAge: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Cashner is a good prospect--he's simply lower on this list because of the emergence of others in the Cubs' system. The TCU product, who posted a 3.24 FIP this year (albeit with a sub-par and 10.0 BB% and 17.8 K%), primarily works off a mid-90s fastball and hard, if inconsistent, slider. He wasn't stretched out very long in his starts, usually 5 innings, and the bullpen will be his future home anyway. There, the 6-6 righty will be able to ditch a changeup and focus on his two power pitches. He could be a set-up man or closer, and he could get his first taste of Wrigley at some point in 2010.
D.J. LeMahieu, ss
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
A member of LSU's national championship team, LeMahieu was taken in the 2nd round this year as an eligible sophomore. He regressed this spring, going from an offensive shortstop to a gangly, punchless keystone-sacker. It is essential that LeMahieu regains power (he has a projectable 6-4, 185 lb. frame) to become a force at the plate. He didn't go deep in 182 PAs in his pro debut. LeMahieu is a skilled inside-out contact hitter, and he could hit 20 HRs when he learns to drive the ball. He doesn't stick out at shortstop, but if he can play the position adequately, then his value will be much higher. LeMahieu plays hard and has strong makeup.
Chris Carpenter, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Perpetually injured at Kent State, Carpenter has taken a step forward with the Cubs. Armed with excellent stuff (91-94 mph fastball, breaking ball, changeup), the 6-4 righty dominated batters at two levels before hitting a wall in Double-A. He has made strides with his pitchability, but still needs to throw more strikes and continue to stay healthy. My gut says he'll wind up a power reliever.
Brooks Raley, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
My affinity for Raley is well-documented. I think he'll be a quick-rising mid-rotation option for the Northsiders, combining great athleticism, aggressiveness, and good control with a decent arsenal (headlined by a sinking fastball).
Blake Parker, rhp
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Thought of more as a power-hitting third baseman during his college days at Arkansas, Parker has zoomed to Triple-A on the strength of a 90-94 mph fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. The closer for the I-Cubs in 2009, he could factor into the big league bullpen next year, perhaps as a 7th-inning reliever. He has work to do on his control before that happens, though. He issued free passes at a rate of 13.1% on the year.
Others: RHPs Esmailin Caridad and Jeff Stevens; LHPs Jeffry Antigua, Austin Kirk and John Gaub; OF Tyler Colvin; INF Ryan Flaherty; 2B Logan Watkins
Impact Talent: B-
Farm System Depth: C+
2010 Breakout Prospect
Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Rhee was turning heads at Peoria in 2008 before getting hurt and requiring Tommy John surgery. Almost fully recovered from the procedure now, Rhee should get back on track in 2010. He has a 90-92 mph fastball, above-average changeup, and developing curveball. He mixes pitches well and is still ahead of the curve developmentally.
