Reds at Cubs, March 13

I went to see the Reds/Cubs game last Saturday at HoHoKam Park in Mesa. (Here is the box score from the game, which the Cubs won handily.) This NL Central contest was a real delight to take in, due in no small part to the numerous prospects and young big leaguers who played.

I was pumped to see Starlin Castro and Yonder Alonso in the starting lineups

I arrived nearly 3 hours before game time and had ample time to kick back and watch batting and infield practice

Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro was my primary focus. The Dominican Republic native has been anointed as the team's top prospect, and some want the 19-year-old to begin the season in the majors. (I would give Castro at least a few more months of minor league seasoning. He only has 120 plate appearances above Single A and can only offer the Cubs an empty batting average at this point. Castro makes contact with ease and his wOBA last season hovered around .340, but he has yet to post a .400 SLG or a walk rate above 6.0% in full-season ball. Chicago should keep the talented youngster in the minors rather than unnecessarily rushing him, but I digress.) Castro has a knack for contact, and while he hasn't developed much power yet, he had a solid showing in BP.

Castro grounded out thrice in actual game action:

Castro's defense is generally praised, but the 6-0, 190-pounder is not an above-average runner and whether he possesses the range necessary for shortstop remains to be seen. Here he is taking grounders before the game:

Starlin Castro

Starlin Castro (alongside Aramis Ramirez)

Hak-Ju Lee, Chicago's other premier middle infield prospect, also received a couple at-bats in the game. Lee hit .330/.399/.420 with 25 SB in the Short-Season Northwest League in 2009.

I snapped lots of photos of Cincinnati players, but unfortunately didn't see Aroldis Chapman.

OF Drew Stubbs

OF Chris Heisey

3B Juan Francisco and OF Wladimir Balentien

Jim Adduci, an unheralded 24-year-old outfielder with limited power but who put up a .362 wOBA in Double-A last season, started in right field for the Cubs. Spring results are meaningless, but Adduci put good swings on a few pitches.

Juan Francisco provided the fireworks for the Reds. I still doubt a player with a career MiLB 3.8 BB% and .311 OBP will be an above-average big league bat, but Francisco's power is simply prodigious and he put it on display with a pair of homers against the Cubs:

Contrary to what the pre-game lineup stated, Logan Watkins did not get the start for the Cubs. Instead, Darwin Barney got the nod at second base. Barney looked good with a diving stop and a couple of line drives, but I was hoping to get the chance to see Watkins. Both are promising middle infield prospects with steady defensive skills, but ultimately I wonder if their bats will be loud enough for them to surface as big league regulars. Watkins (.065) and Barney (.076) had meager showings in the IsoP department in 2009. The former entered Saturday's game for one AB and went down looking:

Logan Watkins at second base

Hard-hitting 1B Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati's #1 prospect:

Here are a couple more vids and pics from the game.

Todd Frazier

Drew Stubbs

Yonder Alonso

2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com

State of the System: Chicago Cubs

Quick Look
This season was a microcosm of the Chicago Cubs in the 21st century. They underachieved in spite of a huge payroll and a boatload of talented players, creating headaches for Northsiders. But there were several positive developments on the farm. The key for the Cubs to get back to the playoffs will be infusing homegrown players into the lineup instead of over-priced, chemistry-deprived free agents.

Top Prospects
Starlin Castro, ss
Age: 19 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Coming off just 215 PAs in Rookie-ball in 2008, Castro's precocious hand-eye coordination, contact ability, and constant energy allowed him to vault to Double-A by the end of his age-19 season. Castro more than held his own, batting .299/.342/.392, maintaining a low (10.4%) K rate, stealing nearly 30 bases, and playing above-average defense. Scouts love his quick, loose swing and project him to be an excellent contact hitter. While exciting, he has a long way to go (most teenagers do). Listed at 160 lbs. and with a .093 IsoP, Castro will need to get stronger and learn to drive the ball. His aggressive approach also needs to be toned down. Concerns have recently surfaced about Castro's speed. It's imperative that he develops some power and is able to stick at short if he's bound for stardom.

Josh Vitters, 3B
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
Vitters, the 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft, has a picture-perfect swing and a knack for making contact and hitting for power. He mashed in Low A this year (.316/.351/.535 with 15 HRs), but his swing-at-everything approach caught up to him after a promotion (.238/.260/.344). Vitters may have to move over to first base in the future as well, limiting his upside. In short, Vitters could be the next Aramis Ramirez, or his lack of patience (his overall walk rate in 2009 was an unsightly 2.5%) at the plate could mean he'll be exploited by advanced pitchers and struggle to post a league-average OBP. He'll have to make some adjustments, offensively and defensively, in 2010 to maintain top-prospect status.

Brett Jackson, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
The lefty-hitting Jackson was an enigma for scouts at Cal, showing first-round tools but striking out with alarming frequency. The Cubs saw enough to indeed pop him in Round 1, and he justified their faith with a strong pro debut. (He hit .318/.418/.488 with 8 home runs, 13 steals, and a 31-56 BB-K ratio in 211 ABs). Possibly relaxed without the draft looming in front of him, Jackson was able to make some strides with the bat, although Ks will be his biggest hindrance as he progresses. A toolsy centerfielder with a flair for the dramatic, Jackson will continue to work on his approach in 2010 (a common thread among Cubs prospects), most likely for Daytona.

Jay Jackson, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A-MLB
A low-profile 9th-round pick, Jackson has been a revelation for the Cubs. Though wild, he handled batters at three levels this year, fanning a batter per inning. Jackson's firm low-90s fastball, plus slider, and workable changeup and curveball give him a high ceiling. He'll pitch for Iowa next year, looking to hone his command and get more ground balls.

Hak-Ju Lee, ss
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
A prized international prospect who signed with the Cubs for $725,000 in 2008, Lee busted out this year in the Northwest League, hitting .330/.399/.420 (with 25 steals) and earning top prospect honors in that circuit. The Korean-born Lee shows the tools to become a championship-caliber starter: He has plus-plus speed, makes hard contact with the promise of some gap power, and is a flashy, if erratic, defender up the middle. He also displayed solid control of the strike zone, with a 10.2 BB% and 16.4 K%. If he improves his consistency next year, Lee could find himself in the discussion as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game.

Andrew Cashner, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Cashner is a good prospect--he's simply lower on this list because of the emergence of others in the Cubs' system. The TCU product, who posted a 3.24 FIP this year (albeit with a sub-par and 10.0 BB% and 17.8 K%), primarily works off a mid-90s fastball and hard, if inconsistent, slider. He wasn't stretched out very long in his starts, usually 5 innings, and the bullpen will be his future home anyway. There, the 6-6 righty will be able to ditch a changeup and focus on his two power pitches. He could be a set-up man or closer, and he could get his first taste of Wrigley at some point in 2010.

D.J. LeMahieu, ss
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
A member of LSU's national championship team, LeMahieu was taken in the 2nd round this year as an eligible sophomore. He regressed this spring, going from an offensive shortstop to a gangly, punchless keystone-sacker. It is essential that LeMahieu regains power (he has a projectable 6-4, 185 lb. frame) to become a force at the plate. He didn't go deep in 182 PAs in his pro debut. LeMahieu is a skilled inside-out contact hitter, and he could hit 20 HRs when he learns to drive the ball. He doesn't stick out at shortstop, but if he can play the position adequately, then his value will be much higher. LeMahieu plays hard and has strong makeup.

Chris Carpenter, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Perpetually injured at Kent State, Carpenter has taken a step forward with the Cubs. Armed with excellent stuff (91-94 mph fastball, breaking ball, changeup), the 6-4 righty dominated batters at two levels before hitting a wall in Double-A. He has made strides with his pitchability, but still needs to throw more strikes and continue to stay healthy. My gut says he'll wind up a power reliever.

Brooks Raley, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
My affinity for Raley is well-documented. I think he'll be a quick-rising mid-rotation option for the Northsiders, combining great athleticism, aggressiveness, and good control with a decent arsenal (headlined by a sinking fastball).

Blake Parker, rhp
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Thought of more as a power-hitting third baseman during his college days at Arkansas, Parker has zoomed to Triple-A on the strength of a 90-94 mph fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. The closer for the I-Cubs in 2009, he could factor into the big league bullpen next year, perhaps as a 7th-inning reliever. He has work to do on his control before that happens, though. He issued free passes at a rate of 13.1% on the year.

Others: RHPs Esmailin Caridad and Jeff Stevens; LHPs Jeffry Antigua, Austin Kirk and John Gaub; OF Tyler Colvin; INF Ryan Flaherty; 2B Logan Watkins
Impact Talent: B-
Farm System Depth: C+

2010 Breakout Prospect
Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Rhee was turning heads at Peoria in 2008 before getting hurt and requiring Tommy John surgery. Almost fully recovered from the procedure now, Rhee should get back on track in 2010. He has a 90-92 mph fastball, above-average changeup, and developing curveball. He mixes pitches well and is still ahead of the curve developmentally.