State of the System: Chicago Cubs

Quick Look
This season was a microcosm of the Chicago Cubs in the 21st century. They underachieved in spite of a huge payroll and a boatload of talented players, creating headaches for Northsiders. But there were several positive developments on the farm. The key for the Cubs to get back to the playoffs will be infusing homegrown players into the lineup instead of over-priced, chemistry-deprived free agents.

Top Prospects
Starlin Castro, ss
Age: 19 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Coming off just 215 PAs in Rookie-ball in 2008, Castro's precocious hand-eye coordination, contact ability, and constant energy allowed him to vault to Double-A by the end of his age-19 season. Castro more than held his own, batting .299/.342/.392, maintaining a low (10.4%) K rate, stealing nearly 30 bases, and playing above-average defense. Scouts love his quick, loose swing and project him to be an excellent contact hitter. While exciting, he has a long way to go (most teenagers do). Listed at 160 lbs. and with a .093 IsoP, Castro will need to get stronger and learn to drive the ball. His aggressive approach also needs to be toned down. Concerns have recently surfaced about Castro's speed. It's imperative that he develops some power and is able to stick at short if he's bound for stardom.

Josh Vitters, 3B
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
Vitters, the 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft, has a picture-perfect swing and a knack for making contact and hitting for power. He mashed in Low A this year (.316/.351/.535 with 15 HRs), but his swing-at-everything approach caught up to him after a promotion (.238/.260/.344). Vitters may have to move over to first base in the future as well, limiting his upside. In short, Vitters could be the next Aramis Ramirez, or his lack of patience (his overall walk rate in 2009 was an unsightly 2.5%) at the plate could mean he'll be exploited by advanced pitchers and struggle to post a league-average OBP. He'll have to make some adjustments, offensively and defensively, in 2010 to maintain top-prospect status.

Brett Jackson, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
The lefty-hitting Jackson was an enigma for scouts at Cal, showing first-round tools but striking out with alarming frequency. The Cubs saw enough to indeed pop him in Round 1, and he justified their faith with a strong pro debut. (He hit .318/.418/.488 with 8 home runs, 13 steals, and a 31-56 BB-K ratio in 211 ABs). Possibly relaxed without the draft looming in front of him, Jackson was able to make some strides with the bat, although Ks will be his biggest hindrance as he progresses. A toolsy centerfielder with a flair for the dramatic, Jackson will continue to work on his approach in 2010 (a common thread among Cubs prospects), most likely for Daytona.

Jay Jackson, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A-MLB
A low-profile 9th-round pick, Jackson has been a revelation for the Cubs. Though wild, he handled batters at three levels this year, fanning a batter per inning. Jackson's firm low-90s fastball, plus slider, and workable changeup and curveball give him a high ceiling. He'll pitch for Iowa next year, looking to hone his command and get more ground balls.

Hak-Ju Lee, ss
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
A prized international prospect who signed with the Cubs for $725,000 in 2008, Lee busted out this year in the Northwest League, hitting .330/.399/.420 (with 25 steals) and earning top prospect honors in that circuit. The Korean-born Lee shows the tools to become a championship-caliber starter: He has plus-plus speed, makes hard contact with the promise of some gap power, and is a flashy, if erratic, defender up the middle. He also displayed solid control of the strike zone, with a 10.2 BB% and 16.4 K%. If he improves his consistency next year, Lee could find himself in the discussion as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game.

Andrew Cashner, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Cashner is a good prospect--he's simply lower on this list because of the emergence of others in the Cubs' system. The TCU product, who posted a 3.24 FIP this year (albeit with a sub-par and 10.0 BB% and 17.8 K%), primarily works off a mid-90s fastball and hard, if inconsistent, slider. He wasn't stretched out very long in his starts, usually 5 innings, and the bullpen will be his future home anyway. There, the 6-6 righty will be able to ditch a changeup and focus on his two power pitches. He could be a set-up man or closer, and he could get his first taste of Wrigley at some point in 2010.

D.J. LeMahieu, ss
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
A member of LSU's national championship team, LeMahieu was taken in the 2nd round this year as an eligible sophomore. He regressed this spring, going from an offensive shortstop to a gangly, punchless keystone-sacker. It is essential that LeMahieu regains power (he has a projectable 6-4, 185 lb. frame) to become a force at the plate. He didn't go deep in 182 PAs in his pro debut. LeMahieu is a skilled inside-out contact hitter, and he could hit 20 HRs when he learns to drive the ball. He doesn't stick out at shortstop, but if he can play the position adequately, then his value will be much higher. LeMahieu plays hard and has strong makeup.

Chris Carpenter, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Perpetually injured at Kent State, Carpenter has taken a step forward with the Cubs. Armed with excellent stuff (91-94 mph fastball, breaking ball, changeup), the 6-4 righty dominated batters at two levels before hitting a wall in Double-A. He has made strides with his pitchability, but still needs to throw more strikes and continue to stay healthy. My gut says he'll wind up a power reliever.

Brooks Raley, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
My affinity for Raley is well-documented. I think he'll be a quick-rising mid-rotation option for the Northsiders, combining great athleticism, aggressiveness, and good control with a decent arsenal (headlined by a sinking fastball).

Blake Parker, rhp
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Thought of more as a power-hitting third baseman during his college days at Arkansas, Parker has zoomed to Triple-A on the strength of a 90-94 mph fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. The closer for the I-Cubs in 2009, he could factor into the big league bullpen next year, perhaps as a 7th-inning reliever. He has work to do on his control before that happens, though. He issued free passes at a rate of 13.1% on the year.

Others: RHPs Esmailin Caridad and Jeff Stevens; LHPs Jeffry Antigua, Austin Kirk and John Gaub; OF Tyler Colvin; INF Ryan Flaherty; 2B Logan Watkins
Impact Talent: B-
Farm System Depth: C+

2010 Breakout Prospect
Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Rhee was turning heads at Peoria in 2008 before getting hurt and requiring Tommy John surgery. Almost fully recovered from the procedure now, Rhee should get back on track in 2010. He has a 90-92 mph fastball, above-average changeup, and developing curveball. He mixes pitches well and is still ahead of the curve developmentally.

Hypothetical Draft 2009

I now present the second edition of my own (hypothetical) draft. In this exercise, similar to what Jim Callis does over at Baseball America, I randomly choose an MLB team and "shadow" their draft, showing who I would have taken in that spot. By doing this, I get to compare my talent-evaluating ability with that of MLB organizations. I can stack up the drafts and see if I have a better haul than most teams; and see how credible my draft "expertise" is. My picks from last year are available here.

Anyway, I got the Angels this year. Being one of the best teams in the majors last year, Los Angeles chose near the back of the first round (#24 was their first slot). They had several supplemental picks for losing free agents, however, so that definitely gave me a boost. By the way, this is who the Angels selected in real life.

Remember, my strategy is to grab players who fell because of signability. Taking advantage of teams that adhere to slot has major benefits for a team's draft. Teams can get top talents in later rounds if they are simply willing to fork over a couple extra million dollars in the draft, where talent is cheaper than in the majors. (Stephen Strasburg, for instance, would have gotten at least 3 times what he got in the draft if he was on the open market.) Heavily focusing on amateur talent and the draft pays off well in the long run (particularly when scouts are sagacious, teams invest wisely, and a few big expenditures pan out).

Here are my picks from the 2009 draft.

1. Mike Trout, of, Millville HS (New Jersey)

Trout (6-0, 200 lbs.) has a compact body that belies his plus speed. He has hitting and defensive ability, some power potential, and a grinder mentality that allows him to always get the best of his tools.

1. Tim Wheeler, of, Sacramento State

Wheeler has the size of a prototypical slugger (6-4, 205 lbs.), but he has never consistently hit for power. If he can learn to do that, he could develop into an All Star-caliber outfielder; the rest of his toolset is intriguing.

1s. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Santa Monica HS (California)

Skaggs is a supremely projectable prep lefty with "now" secondary stuff (curveball and changeup). Once he fills out his lanky frame and puts a few ticks on his fastball, he could be a frontline starter.

1s. Marc Krauss, of, Ohio

Coming from a mid-major, Krauss hasn't gotten a lot of exposure. He starred offensively in the Cape Cod League and this spring for the Bobcats, and he could provide an above-average corner bat in the majors. He should move fairly quickly.

1s. Bryan Berglund, rhp, Royal HS (California)

Berglund, a projectable Swede whom the Marlins bought out of Loyola Marymount for $572,500, already has a solid three-pitch foundation. His fastball (90-92 mph at best) isn't a plus pitch at this stage but it figures to improve with experience, as do his slider and changeup, which have plus potential.

2. Wil Myers, c, Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

Myers is a versatile basher. He should be able to catch as a pro, driving his value up even more. He had a promising pro debut after pocketing $2 million from the Royals, and I like him at least as much as KC's top two hitting prospects (Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas) at this juncture.

3. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City HS (California)

Stassi's fall to the 4th round was one of the biggest surprises in the draft this year. He'll be a capable catcher and an impact hitter. He has good bloodlines and makeup, and he's a steal for me and for the A's in real life.

4. Zach Von Rosenberg, rhp, Zachary HS (Louisiana)

Von Rosenberg is also a top talent who dropped because of signability. A $1.2 million bonus gets me a proven winner with control of an 88-91 mph fastball, curveball, and changeup.

5. Brooks Raley, lhp, Texas A&M

Raley, a slender draft-eligible sophomore drafted by the Cubs, is an outstanding athlete and competitor. He throws an 87-91 mph sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. He had a 3.76 ERA for the Aggies this spring, and his ceiling is a #3-4 starter.

6. Josh Fellhauer, of, Cal State Fullerton

Fellhauer is a cheap five-tool player. He's undersized and may be a tweener, but he has plenty of average (or a tick above) tools and a good feel for the game.

7. Ryan Buch, rhp, Monmouth

Buch will need time to iron out his numerous flaws and inconsistencies. (He walked 21 in 19 innings in his pro debut.) If everything clicks, though, he'll be a top-flight reliever, with a low- to mid-90s fastball and a sharp curveball.

8. Ryan Berry, rhp, Rice

Getting Berry this late is a coup. He has some delivery and injury concerns (what a surprise for a Rice hurler), but he's a borderline 1st-round talent when healthy. Berry attacks the zone with a solid fastball that touches 93 mph, a knucklecurve, changeup, and slider.

9. Sam Dyson, rhp, South Carolina

Dyson has a mediocre track record, but his high-octane fastball-curve combo is worth taking a chance on in the 9th round. He returned to the Gamecocks in real life.

10. Nick Hernandez, lhp, Tennessee

Highly-regarded entering his junior season of college, Hernandez fell apart and dropped to the 12th round in real life. He made adjustments and performed well in his pro debut, though, and his feel for pitching and solid stuff could translate into a spot at the back of a major league rotation in a few years.

11. Nick Greenwood, lhp, Rhode Island

Greenwood has three average pitches, and his feel for pitching and control helps them all play up. He's not imposing, but he always gets results (1.63 ERA in 66 IP for the Padres this summer).

12. Dane Williams, rhp, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Florida)

Williams attended N.C. State, but I would have taken a flier on his dynamic stuff. He has touched 94-96 and flashed a power slider in short bursts.

13. Pierce Johnson, rhp, Faith Christian Academy (Colorado)

Johnson is at Missouri State, but his all-around game spurred me to sway him away from the Bears. He locates a low-90s fastball, mixes in a promising breaking ball and changeup, and has smooth mechanics.

14. Del Howell, lhp, Alabama

Howell has immense upside, although he's a bit volatile. His fastball hits 94 with life and his slider is a plus pitch in the low-80s. The quality of his stuff wavers, and he has many nuances of pitching to fine-tune.

15. Dylan Floro, rhp, Buhach Colony HS (California)

A 20th-round choice, Floro passed up the Rays for Cal State Fullerton. He'll be an elite college pitcher in short order, as he has a 90-92 mph fastball, above-average slider, and a changeup.

16. Richie Shaffer, 3B, Providence HS (North Carolina)

A hand injury allowed Shaffer to drop in the draft and make good on his commitment to Clemson. He's well worth his hefty price tag, though, as he has perfect third-base tools, particularly a strong arm and tantalizing raw power.

17. Alex Hassan, rhp, Duke

I'm interested in Hassan as a pitcher, but Boston drafted him as an outfielder. He didn't disappoint in his debut (.328 AVG while reaching Low A).

18. Sergio Burruel, c, Browne HS (Arizona)

Burruel, a Cubs draftee, has arm strength, good hands, and the ability to lead a pitching staff. A lefty-swinger, he shows some promise at the plate.

19. Drew Biery, ss, Giants

Biery is an older shortstop who had a good career at Kansas State. He could hit his way up the ladder.

20. Jon Reed, rhp, Memorial HS (Oklahoma)

Surpassed by Chad James as the Sooner State's top high school prospect this spring after Reed had some concerns with the health of his elbow, the 6-2, 200-pounder is nonetheless interesting. His fastball ranges from around 90 to a couple ticks higher, and his curve is advanced for a high schooler. Reed is now at Tennessee.

21. Michael Zunino, c, Mariner HS (Florida)

Part of Florida's superb recruiting class, Zunino is known for his power displays. He has improved his defense but is still below-average in that department.

22. Ethan Carter, rhp, Menchville HS (Virginia)

Carter is a projectable 6-5, 200-pounder hailing from one of the nation's better high school programs. The sky is basically the limit with Carter, who has a three-pitch mix including a fastball that could settle in the low-90s once he recovers from a stress fracture.

23. Shaeffer Hall, lhp, Kansas

Hall is not overpowering by any means, but he keeps his team in the game by pounding the zone with a four-pitch mix. He needs to tighten up his curveball, but he could be a #5 starter or bullpen lefty.

24. Tobin Mateychick, rhp, Enid HS (Oklahoma)

Mateychick will be a project for Wichita State, but he could pay off handsomely in three years. His projectable frame and quick arm bode well for his already-plus fastball. His changeup and slider will need time to develop.

25. Diego Seastrunk, c, Rice

Seastrunk has a patient approach, line-drive stroke, and opposite-field awareness. Defensively, the former third baseman needs more reps, but he offers soft hands and a good arm.

26. Mike Bolsinger, rhp, Arkansas

Bolsinger projects as a big league middle reliever, with a decent slider and an 88-90 mph sinker. He's touched higher in the past and had a very successful 2009 campaign.

27. Brandon Sizemore, 2B, College of Charleston

Below-average defensively and athletically, Sizemore needs to hit his way to the majors if he wants to make good on his best-case scenario of Dan Uggla. The stocky 22-year-old got off on the right foot in his pro debut, blasting 8 homers and going .292/.376/.528.

28. Matt Long, of, Santa Clara

Long will probably max out as a good college player but, hey, it's the 28th round. The 22-year-old has a solid package of tools.

29. A.J. Griffin, rhp, San Diego

Griffin's arsenal consists of a 86-91 mph fastball, slider, change, and curveball. The 6-5, 215-pounder has been primarily used as the Toreros' closer, but he could be a back-of-the-rotation or middle relief option as a pro. He pounds the zone consistently.

30. Chris Manno, lhp, Duke

Although he rarely bumps 90, Manno toys with opponents and receives unanimously glowing scouting reports. He has a projectable body and an occasionally plus changeup.

31. Scott Griggs, rhp, San Ramon Valley HS (California)

One of the top prepsters in the nation entering his senior year, Griggs slumped and ended up at UCLA. He has power stuff, though, with a 90-95 mph fastball and diving curveball.

32. Matt Moynihan, of, Cathedral Catholic HS (California)

Moynihan has athletic and offensive ability, and he projects as an impressive outfielder after 3 years at San Diego.

33. Tyler Lavigne, rhp, San Diego State

Not exactly the team ace in college, Lavigne still has a chance in the pros. His solid sinker-slider combo led him to a 3.05 ERA this spring.

34. Tanner Poppe, rhp, Girard HS (Kansas)

Poppe is a work in progress, but his textbook pitcher's body and a fastball that reaches 93 mph could make him a premium prospect after 3 years at Kansas.

35. Brandon May, inf, Alabama

May was a good college hitter and projects to have a decent bat in the professional ranks. The Cubs are trying his hand at catcher to increase his versatility and give him an easier route up the ladder. If the conversion takes, he'll be an interesting sleeper.

36. Colin Bates, rhp, North Carolina

A redshirt sophomore, Bates returned to UNC in real life. He has a low-90s sinker, decent breaking ball, and an aggressive mentality.

37. Keifer Nuncio, rhp, Katy HS (Texas)

Now at Texas, Nuncio has a bulldog approach on the mound. His three-pitch mix (headlined by a 88-91 mph fastball) isn't too shabby, either.

38. Dan Sarisky, rhp, Oglethorpe (Georgia)

A D-III product, Sarisky flashes closer stuff. His fastball teases 97, his slider has power in the mid-80s, and he has an occasional 12-6 curve. He's polishing his control.

39. Kyle Hansen, rhp, St. Dominic HS (New York)

The younger brother of big league reliever Craig Hansen, Kyle has a similarly intimidating frame and upside. After three years at St. John's he could be a premium draft prospect.

40. Jordan Poyer, of, Astoria HS (Oregon)

A supreme athlete who also plays football (at Oregon State now), Poyer would have been taken much higher if not for signability. He is rough around the edges, but he has five-tool potential.

41. Cohl Walla, of, Lake Travis HS (Texas)

Walla is a high-risk, high-reward pick. He has above-average speed, a plus arm, raw power and projectability. The only thing missing from Walla's toolset at present is a consistent bat.

42. Richard Stock, c, Agoura Hills HS (California)

Headed to USC like his brother, Cardinals '09 2nd-rounder Robert, Richard has similar skills. When healthy, he has ample power, a cannon arm, and a powerful 6-3, 185-pound frame.

43. Beau Amaral, of, Huntington Beach HS (California)

The son of a former major leaguer, Beau fits the table-setter profile nicely, although he lacks power. He's currently at UCLA.

44. Jason Novak, rhp, UCLA

Wild but strong-armed, the 21-year-old is a bullpen prospect worth taking a flier on.

45. Parker Bangs, rhp, South Carolina

Bangs is back at South Carolina (playing two ways), but his stuff merited a selection here. He hits 92 mph with his fastball, and his slider has potential.

46. Juan Avila, of, Narbonne HS (California)

A switch-hitter, Avila is an under-the-radar prospect with a variety of average-or-better tools.

47. Tommy Collier, rhp, San Jacinto JC

Collier has good stuff, beginning with a sharp slider and an occasional hammer curveball. He doesn't establish his fastball well enough, but it is formidable, sitting at 86-91 and nudging 94. He isn't particularly big for a pitcher (6-2, 195 lbs.).

48. Todd McInnis, rhp, Southern Miss

A redshirt sophomore, McInnis has a slight frame and fringy fastball, deterring teams from drafting him this year. He'll return to Southern Miss. I like him because of his exceptional array of breaking pitches and big-game experience. He should anchor the Golden Eagles' rotation in 2010 and be a decent draft pick.

49. Nolan Cain, rhp, LSU

A seldom-used member of LSU's national championship squad, Cain went undrafted. The Tigers signed him, though, and elevated him to Double-A. The 23-year-old has a durable body, is deceptive, and has solid stuff.

50. Buck Afenir, c, Kansas

Another undrafted free agent, Afenir latched on with the Yankees. The California native had an excellent career at KU, and he'll be an organizational soldier at the least.

In summation, I chose 24 high school players and 30 collegians. The approximate total cost of these players would obliterate the current record for a single draft (which is Washington's 2009 draft, which went well into 8 figures). My first 12 picks signed for about $10.3 million; and the rest, whose bonus demands were difficult to ascertain, would push the total to the $15 million range. As I always maintain, though, dollars are much better spent in the draft. We'll see if it's one of the most productive drafts of all time to match its price tag. It certainly looks like a sparkling class now, but it will take years to properly assess my crop.