State of the System: Colorado Rockies

Quick Look

The Rockies, almost entirely through scouting and player development, have become a formidable, entertaining team. They have made the postseason two of the past three seasons, relying on homegrown stars such as Troy Tulowitzki, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Dexter Fowler. Colorado's system is in good, but not spectacular, shape. I loved what the Rockies got in the draft this year, and their young talent positions them to be in contention in the NL West for years to come.

Top Prospects

Tyler Matzek, lhp

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

The nation's top high school prospect was ostensibly ticketed for Oregon until the Rockies handed him $3.9 million. He immediately infuses more star power into the pipeline. Working with a smooth, easy delivery and a sturdy frame, Matzek delivers a 90-94 mph fastball and a swing-and-miss curve. His slider and changeup both possess plus potential, although he doesn't use them when he doesn't need to. Matzek is lauded for his feel for pitching, particulary setting up batters, and he has even been clocked (reportedly) at 97-98. He seems nearly perfect, but like any young pitcher he has some flaws to correct next year. He has a stiff landing and comes out some games looking like a completely different pitcher, struggling with command, feel, and motivation.

Christian Friedrich, lhp

Age: 22 Level: High A-MLB

Colorado got a bargain with the 25th overall pick last year, nabbing the former Eastern Kentucky lefthander. Perceived as a smart pitcher with an average fastball and stellar offspeed stuff, Friedrich exceeded expectations in 2009, enjoying one of the best seasons of any prospect in the minors. He toyed with mostly younger batters, posting an aggregate 2.41 ERA and a dominating strikeout rate. The 6-4 Friedrich sits at 90 mph with his fastball, touching 93-94 on occasion. His big, 12-6 curveball is his bread-and-butter pitch, and his promising slider and changeup flirt with plus. Friedrich has #2 starter potential despite uncharacteristically struggling with the strike zone this year. He could see Colorado in 2010.

Jhoulys Chacin, rhp

Age: 21 Level: MLB

Chacin at the very least has to be commended for his durability. The 6-3, 200-pounder threw 177 innings last year as a 20-year-old. This year the Venezuelan-born Chacin appeared in the Futures Game and made his big league debut. At times, Chacin has a low-90s fastball with heavy sink, a plus changeup, and a serviceable curveball. He inexplicably lost control of the strike zone this year (perhaps being timid to challenge high-level hitters), and his K rate regressed as well. His fastball was knocked for being fringy, and Chacin pitched in the bullpen for the Rockies. Chacin has areas to fix, but I think he will be able to turn it around if he regains his aggressiveness. If so, he'll be an outstanding #3 starter.

Rex Brothers, lhp

Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A

Brothers leapt into first-round discussion before settling as the 34th overall pick (from Lipscomb) this year. With a plus fastball that touches 97 mph and a wicked 85-87 slider, he has massive potential. He fits better in the bullpen, airing it out and not fretting over command, a changeup, or his max-effort delivery. Brothers maintains his velocity deep into starts, however, so some would like to see him kept in the rotation. The compact lefty could rise quickly.

Tim Wheeler, of

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A

Wheeler is a multi-tooled outfielder who broke out in the Cape Cod League last year and followed it up with a productive spring for Sacramento State. After quickly signing for $900,000 as the last pick in the first round, Wheeler had a so-so debut in the Northwest League (.256/.332/.381). The 6-4, 205-pounder runs well for his size and could be a plus defender on a corner. He will need to hit for power to make it there, but he projects for some. He launched 18 this spring, albeit against substandard competition. Wheeler needs to adjust his approach to top-flight pitching, but he receives plaudits for his work ethic, and should be able to do so. He could explode with a hitter-friendly environment on tap for next season.

Esmil Rogers, rhp

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Rogers displays a remarkable feel for pitching and command for a player who converted from the shortstop just three years ago. Those attributes help his power stuff (92-95 mph fastball, sharp low-80s curve, nascent changeup) play up. He was torn apart this year in Triple-A and the majors, showing he still needs more experience with the subtle nuances of pitching, including maintaining composure, holding runners, and being consistent. With his smallish stature and two plus pitches, I like Rogers as a future quality reliever.

Eric Young, Jr., 2B/of

Age: 24 Level: MLB

The switch-hitter is a bundle of energy and excitement just like his father. Young had his best year as a pro in 2009, batting .299/.387/.430 with 58 stolen bases and 38 extra-base hits. He lacks eye-popping offensive tools, but Young knows his game and plays to his strengths. Young is a plus-plus runner and a terror on the basepaths. He has enough power to drive the ball every once in a while, but the 5-10, 180-pounder does not pretend to be a power threat. He draws walks and beats out infield hits to help get on base. The most pressing question in his game is on defense, as his hard hands and weak arm make him below average at the keystone sack. Young has taken the outfield for a test drive in recent years. The Chandler-Gilbert CC product will at least be a useful utility player.

Nolan Arenado, 3B

Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A

Arenado led a banner recruiting class for Arizona State, but he went pro after the Rockies selected him in the second round this year. The California native (6-1, 205 lbs.) played third base in his pro debut, but some scouts would like to see him try catcher. He's strong and has a plus throwing arm, but his speed and range are below average. Arenado (.300/.351/.404 in the hitter-happy Pioneer League) has excellent power potential, although many worry about his stiff actions and see his unorthodox hitting mechanics as a red flag. He has a mature approach and should be a regular in the South Atlantic League next year.

Charlie Blackmon, of

Age: 23 Level: High A-Triple-A

Blackmon is yet another Colorado prospect who doesn't neatly fit a profile. A former lefty pitcher, Blackmon flourished after being converted to the outfield midway through college. He went in the second round out of Georgia Tech and made progress in the Cal League this year. Blackmon's a free swinger, but his tools are still interesting. His loose stroke, hand-eye coordination, and feel for hitting enable him to make consistent contact, as supported by his .307 average and respectable strikeout total this year. A plus runner, Blackmon swiped 30 bases (although he was caught 13 times). He also plays good defense in center and naturally has a strong arm. Blackmon turns 24 next year and has yet to play in Double-A; he could develop into a very good major league player, but he needs to be challenged more, tone down his aggressiveness, and increase his power output.

Mike McKenry, c

Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB

Through sheer hard work, McKenry has crafted himself into a plus backstop. He adroitly blocks balls in the dirt and keeps basestealers at bay with a decent arm. He offers offensive value in the form of walks and a solid amount of home runs, although his pure hitting will never be extraordinary. Strong and tightly-wound, some wonder if McKenry's lack of flexibilty and athleticism will catch up to him. The former Middle Tennessee State Blue Raider is off the charts in terms of work ethic and makeup, and he could soon fashion a backup role for himself. He'll test his mettle in Triple-A in 2010.

Others: RHPs Juan Nicasio, Casey Weathers, and Chris Balcom-Miller; 1B Ben Paulsen; SS Hector Gomez; C Wilin Rosario

Impact Talent: B

Farm System Depth: C+

2010 Breakout Prospect

Aaron Weatherford, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Low A-Triple-A

Most of my picks to click are young players who have yet to reach the prospect radar. In the case of Weatherford, a relatively well-known former Mississippi State closer, injuries have stunted his progress (27 IP in 2009). If the 2008 3rd-rounder regains his health, he'll hop on the fast track to Colorado. Weatherford's repertoire is built on power: he has a lively 92-94 mph fastball, sharp curveball, and hard splitter. Weatherford has a max-effort delivery and is working on harnessing his stuff, but he has the stuff to be a set-up man or closer in the majors.

Hypothetical Draft 2009

I now present the second edition of my own (hypothetical) draft. In this exercise, similar to what Jim Callis does over at Baseball America, I randomly choose an MLB team and "shadow" their draft, showing who I would have taken in that spot. By doing this, I get to compare my talent-evaluating ability with that of MLB organizations. I can stack up the drafts and see if I have a better haul than most teams; and see how credible my draft "expertise" is. My picks from last year are available here.

Anyway, I got the Angels this year. Being one of the best teams in the majors last year, Los Angeles chose near the back of the first round (#24 was their first slot). They had several supplemental picks for losing free agents, however, so that definitely gave me a boost. By the way, this is who the Angels selected in real life.

Remember, my strategy is to grab players who fell because of signability. Taking advantage of teams that adhere to slot has major benefits for a team's draft. Teams can get top talents in later rounds if they are simply willing to fork over a couple extra million dollars in the draft, where talent is cheaper than in the majors. (Stephen Strasburg, for instance, would have gotten at least 3 times what he got in the draft if he was on the open market.) Heavily focusing on amateur talent and the draft pays off well in the long run (particularly when scouts are sagacious, teams invest wisely, and a few big expenditures pan out).

Here are my picks from the 2009 draft.

1. Mike Trout, of, Millville HS (New Jersey)

Trout (6-0, 200 lbs.) has a compact body that belies his plus speed. He has hitting and defensive ability, some power potential, and a grinder mentality that allows him to always get the best of his tools.

1. Tim Wheeler, of, Sacramento State

Wheeler has the size of a prototypical slugger (6-4, 205 lbs.), but he has never consistently hit for power. If he can learn to do that, he could develop into an All Star-caliber outfielder; the rest of his toolset is intriguing.

1s. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Santa Monica HS (California)

Skaggs is a supremely projectable prep lefty with "now" secondary stuff (curveball and changeup). Once he fills out his lanky frame and puts a few ticks on his fastball, he could be a frontline starter.

1s. Marc Krauss, of, Ohio

Coming from a mid-major, Krauss hasn't gotten a lot of exposure. He starred offensively in the Cape Cod League and this spring for the Bobcats, and he could provide an above-average corner bat in the majors. He should move fairly quickly.

1s. Bryan Berglund, rhp, Royal HS (California)

Berglund, a projectable Swede whom the Marlins bought out of Loyola Marymount for $572,500, already has a solid three-pitch foundation. His fastball (90-92 mph at best) isn't a plus pitch at this stage but it figures to improve with experience, as do his slider and changeup, which have plus potential.

2. Wil Myers, c, Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

Myers is a versatile basher. He should be able to catch as a pro, driving his value up even more. He had a promising pro debut after pocketing $2 million from the Royals, and I like him at least as much as KC's top two hitting prospects (Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas) at this juncture.

3. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City HS (California)

Stassi's fall to the 4th round was one of the biggest surprises in the draft this year. He'll be a capable catcher and an impact hitter. He has good bloodlines and makeup, and he's a steal for me and for the A's in real life.

4. Zach Von Rosenberg, rhp, Zachary HS (Louisiana)

Von Rosenberg is also a top talent who dropped because of signability. A $1.2 million bonus gets me a proven winner with control of an 88-91 mph fastball, curveball, and changeup.

5. Brooks Raley, lhp, Texas A&M

Raley, a slender draft-eligible sophomore drafted by the Cubs, is an outstanding athlete and competitor. He throws an 87-91 mph sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. He had a 3.76 ERA for the Aggies this spring, and his ceiling is a #3-4 starter.

6. Josh Fellhauer, of, Cal State Fullerton

Fellhauer is a cheap five-tool player. He's undersized and may be a tweener, but he has plenty of average (or a tick above) tools and a good feel for the game.

7. Ryan Buch, rhp, Monmouth

Buch will need time to iron out his numerous flaws and inconsistencies. (He walked 21 in 19 innings in his pro debut.) If everything clicks, though, he'll be a top-flight reliever, with a low- to mid-90s fastball and a sharp curveball.

8. Ryan Berry, rhp, Rice

Getting Berry this late is a coup. He has some delivery and injury concerns (what a surprise for a Rice hurler), but he's a borderline 1st-round talent when healthy. Berry attacks the zone with a solid fastball that touches 93 mph, a knucklecurve, changeup, and slider.

9. Sam Dyson, rhp, South Carolina

Dyson has a mediocre track record, but his high-octane fastball-curve combo is worth taking a chance on in the 9th round. He returned to the Gamecocks in real life.

10. Nick Hernandez, lhp, Tennessee

Highly-regarded entering his junior season of college, Hernandez fell apart and dropped to the 12th round in real life. He made adjustments and performed well in his pro debut, though, and his feel for pitching and solid stuff could translate into a spot at the back of a major league rotation in a few years.

11. Nick Greenwood, lhp, Rhode Island

Greenwood has three average pitches, and his feel for pitching and control helps them all play up. He's not imposing, but he always gets results (1.63 ERA in 66 IP for the Padres this summer).

12. Dane Williams, rhp, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Florida)

Williams attended N.C. State, but I would have taken a flier on his dynamic stuff. He has touched 94-96 and flashed a power slider in short bursts.

13. Pierce Johnson, rhp, Faith Christian Academy (Colorado)

Johnson is at Missouri State, but his all-around game spurred me to sway him away from the Bears. He locates a low-90s fastball, mixes in a promising breaking ball and changeup, and has smooth mechanics.

14. Del Howell, lhp, Alabama

Howell has immense upside, although he's a bit volatile. His fastball hits 94 with life and his slider is a plus pitch in the low-80s. The quality of his stuff wavers, and he has many nuances of pitching to fine-tune.

15. Dylan Floro, rhp, Buhach Colony HS (California)

A 20th-round choice, Floro passed up the Rays for Cal State Fullerton. He'll be an elite college pitcher in short order, as he has a 90-92 mph fastball, above-average slider, and a changeup.

16. Richie Shaffer, 3B, Providence HS (North Carolina)

A hand injury allowed Shaffer to drop in the draft and make good on his commitment to Clemson. He's well worth his hefty price tag, though, as he has perfect third-base tools, particularly a strong arm and tantalizing raw power.

17. Alex Hassan, rhp, Duke

I'm interested in Hassan as a pitcher, but Boston drafted him as an outfielder. He didn't disappoint in his debut (.328 AVG while reaching Low A).

18. Sergio Burruel, c, Browne HS (Arizona)

Burruel, a Cubs draftee, has arm strength, good hands, and the ability to lead a pitching staff. A lefty-swinger, he shows some promise at the plate.

19. Drew Biery, ss, Giants

Biery is an older shortstop who had a good career at Kansas State. He could hit his way up the ladder.

20. Jon Reed, rhp, Memorial HS (Oklahoma)

Surpassed by Chad James as the Sooner State's top high school prospect this spring after Reed had some concerns with the health of his elbow, the 6-2, 200-pounder is nonetheless interesting. His fastball ranges from around 90 to a couple ticks higher, and his curve is advanced for a high schooler. Reed is now at Tennessee.

21. Michael Zunino, c, Mariner HS (Florida)

Part of Florida's superb recruiting class, Zunino is known for his power displays. He has improved his defense but is still below-average in that department.

22. Ethan Carter, rhp, Menchville HS (Virginia)

Carter is a projectable 6-5, 200-pounder hailing from one of the nation's better high school programs. The sky is basically the limit with Carter, who has a three-pitch mix including a fastball that could settle in the low-90s once he recovers from a stress fracture.

23. Shaeffer Hall, lhp, Kansas

Hall is not overpowering by any means, but he keeps his team in the game by pounding the zone with a four-pitch mix. He needs to tighten up his curveball, but he could be a #5 starter or bullpen lefty.

24. Tobin Mateychick, rhp, Enid HS (Oklahoma)

Mateychick will be a project for Wichita State, but he could pay off handsomely in three years. His projectable frame and quick arm bode well for his already-plus fastball. His changeup and slider will need time to develop.

25. Diego Seastrunk, c, Rice

Seastrunk has a patient approach, line-drive stroke, and opposite-field awareness. Defensively, the former third baseman needs more reps, but he offers soft hands and a good arm.

26. Mike Bolsinger, rhp, Arkansas

Bolsinger projects as a big league middle reliever, with a decent slider and an 88-90 mph sinker. He's touched higher in the past and had a very successful 2009 campaign.

27. Brandon Sizemore, 2B, College of Charleston

Below-average defensively and athletically, Sizemore needs to hit his way to the majors if he wants to make good on his best-case scenario of Dan Uggla. The stocky 22-year-old got off on the right foot in his pro debut, blasting 8 homers and going .292/.376/.528.

28. Matt Long, of, Santa Clara

Long will probably max out as a good college player but, hey, it's the 28th round. The 22-year-old has a solid package of tools.

29. A.J. Griffin, rhp, San Diego

Griffin's arsenal consists of a 86-91 mph fastball, slider, change, and curveball. The 6-5, 215-pounder has been primarily used as the Toreros' closer, but he could be a back-of-the-rotation or middle relief option as a pro. He pounds the zone consistently.

30. Chris Manno, lhp, Duke

Although he rarely bumps 90, Manno toys with opponents and receives unanimously glowing scouting reports. He has a projectable body and an occasionally plus changeup.

31. Scott Griggs, rhp, San Ramon Valley HS (California)

One of the top prepsters in the nation entering his senior year, Griggs slumped and ended up at UCLA. He has power stuff, though, with a 90-95 mph fastball and diving curveball.

32. Matt Moynihan, of, Cathedral Catholic HS (California)

Moynihan has athletic and offensive ability, and he projects as an impressive outfielder after 3 years at San Diego.

33. Tyler Lavigne, rhp, San Diego State

Not exactly the team ace in college, Lavigne still has a chance in the pros. His solid sinker-slider combo led him to a 3.05 ERA this spring.

34. Tanner Poppe, rhp, Girard HS (Kansas)

Poppe is a work in progress, but his textbook pitcher's body and a fastball that reaches 93 mph could make him a premium prospect after 3 years at Kansas.

35. Brandon May, inf, Alabama

May was a good college hitter and projects to have a decent bat in the professional ranks. The Cubs are trying his hand at catcher to increase his versatility and give him an easier route up the ladder. If the conversion takes, he'll be an interesting sleeper.

36. Colin Bates, rhp, North Carolina

A redshirt sophomore, Bates returned to UNC in real life. He has a low-90s sinker, decent breaking ball, and an aggressive mentality.

37. Keifer Nuncio, rhp, Katy HS (Texas)

Now at Texas, Nuncio has a bulldog approach on the mound. His three-pitch mix (headlined by a 88-91 mph fastball) isn't too shabby, either.

38. Dan Sarisky, rhp, Oglethorpe (Georgia)

A D-III product, Sarisky flashes closer stuff. His fastball teases 97, his slider has power in the mid-80s, and he has an occasional 12-6 curve. He's polishing his control.

39. Kyle Hansen, rhp, St. Dominic HS (New York)

The younger brother of big league reliever Craig Hansen, Kyle has a similarly intimidating frame and upside. After three years at St. John's he could be a premium draft prospect.

40. Jordan Poyer, of, Astoria HS (Oregon)

A supreme athlete who also plays football (at Oregon State now), Poyer would have been taken much higher if not for signability. He is rough around the edges, but he has five-tool potential.

41. Cohl Walla, of, Lake Travis HS (Texas)

Walla is a high-risk, high-reward pick. He has above-average speed, a plus arm, raw power and projectability. The only thing missing from Walla's toolset at present is a consistent bat.

42. Richard Stock, c, Agoura Hills HS (California)

Headed to USC like his brother, Cardinals '09 2nd-rounder Robert, Richard has similar skills. When healthy, he has ample power, a cannon arm, and a powerful 6-3, 185-pound frame.

43. Beau Amaral, of, Huntington Beach HS (California)

The son of a former major leaguer, Beau fits the table-setter profile nicely, although he lacks power. He's currently at UCLA.

44. Jason Novak, rhp, UCLA

Wild but strong-armed, the 21-year-old is a bullpen prospect worth taking a flier on.

45. Parker Bangs, rhp, South Carolina

Bangs is back at South Carolina (playing two ways), but his stuff merited a selection here. He hits 92 mph with his fastball, and his slider has potential.

46. Juan Avila, of, Narbonne HS (California)

A switch-hitter, Avila is an under-the-radar prospect with a variety of average-or-better tools.

47. Tommy Collier, rhp, San Jacinto JC

Collier has good stuff, beginning with a sharp slider and an occasional hammer curveball. He doesn't establish his fastball well enough, but it is formidable, sitting at 86-91 and nudging 94. He isn't particularly big for a pitcher (6-2, 195 lbs.).

48. Todd McInnis, rhp, Southern Miss

A redshirt sophomore, McInnis has a slight frame and fringy fastball, deterring teams from drafting him this year. He'll return to Southern Miss. I like him because of his exceptional array of breaking pitches and big-game experience. He should anchor the Golden Eagles' rotation in 2010 and be a decent draft pick.

49. Nolan Cain, rhp, LSU

A seldom-used member of LSU's national championship squad, Cain went undrafted. The Tigers signed him, though, and elevated him to Double-A. The 23-year-old has a durable body, is deceptive, and has solid stuff.

50. Buck Afenir, c, Kansas

Another undrafted free agent, Afenir latched on with the Yankees. The California native had an excellent career at KU, and he'll be an organizational soldier at the least.

In summation, I chose 24 high school players and 30 collegians. The approximate total cost of these players would obliterate the current record for a single draft (which is Washington's 2009 draft, which went well into 8 figures). My first 12 picks signed for about $10.3 million; and the rest, whose bonus demands were difficult to ascertain, would push the total to the $15 million range. As I always maintain, though, dollars are much better spent in the draft. We'll see if it's one of the most productive drafts of all time to match its price tag. It certainly looks like a sparkling class now, but it will take years to properly assess my crop.