State of the System: Texas Rangers

Quick Look

The reigning #1 system in baseball, the Rangers' youth movement is underway. They've incorporated youngsters like Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and Tommy Hunter into the fold, and their young talent should allow them to compete with anyone in the future.

Top Prospects

Justin Smoak, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Smoak, a 2008 1st-rounder, is the best first-base prospect in the minor leagues. The 6-4, 220-pounder has excellent power and a good idea at the plate. He put up a .328/.449/.481 line in Double-A in 2009 before stumbling in Triple-A. (His wOBA dropped from .427 to .336, and his K rate rose from 15.4% to 18.9%.) Much of that can be attributed to injury, however. He has strong plate discipline and line-drive rates, and I expect him to be an outstanding run producer in the big leagues. Smoak, who hails from the same South Carolina high school as Orioles stud-in-the-making Matt Wieters, is an above-average defensive first baseman, but his speed and athleticism are very limited. He needs some more at-bats in the minors, but Smoak has the potential to bounce back and be a switch-hitting Justin Morneau-type.

Neftali Feliz, rhp

Age: 21 Level: MLB

A part of the lopsided Mark Teixeira trade with the Braves in 2007, Feliz has one of the best pure arms on the planet. He generates consistent low- to mid-90s velocity from an easy motion, and he sometimes touches triple digits. His breaking ball and changeup need more consistency, but they are promising. Feliz has posted a 28.8 K% in his career, along with a 10.5 BB%. He needs to polish his command and put the finishing touches on his secondary stuff. The 6-3, 180-pounder also has never worked a 130+ IP campaign. He reached the majors and was unhittable in 30 relief innings last season, showing that he could be a dominating closer in short order, but Feliz has even greater upside at the front of the rotation. Keying in on his #1 stuff, the Rangers will continue to develop him in that role.

Martin Perez, lhp

Age: 18 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

His stuff is above-average, but Perez is also lauded for how polished he is for his age. The 6-0 Venezuelan posted a 2.46 FIP and 26.9 K% in Low A in 2009. He also induced a healthy amount of ground balls, and the teenager received a Double-A cameo at the end of the year. Perez works off a low-90s fastball that tops out at 95 mph. He has greatly improved the quality of his changeup, and he owns a late-breaking curveball. The primary drawback is that Perez is exceedingly young and his durability has yet to be tested. (His delivery, however, looks easy and clean.) His command naturally isn't a finished product. Perez will throw a full season in Double-A in 2010 and try to live up to his Johan Santana comparisons. He is one of the finest lefty prospects in the game and rounds out Texas's amazing prospect trifecta.

Tanner Scheppers, rhp

Age: 23 Level: none-Double-A

Scheppers is an extremely unique prospect. The erstwhile shortstop shifted to the mound at Fresno State to take advantage of his electric arm, then had a severe shoulder injury that caused him to miss the Bulldogs' unbelievable run to the College World Series title in 2008. Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates that year, but got $1.25 million from Texas in 2009. The 6-4, 200-pounder's heater ranges anywhere from the low-90s to 99 mph. His curveball is devastating, though inconsistent. The downside is Scheppers is wild and has no changeup to speak of. His delivery and injury history also point him toward the bullpen. He figures to go straight to Double-A in 2010. My best conjecture is that he'll be a late-inning reliever.

Danny Gutierrez, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Gutierrez hasn't seized his potential yet due to some injuries and run-ins with the law. The Royals, fed up with his antics, essentially gave up the 6-1 righty in September. Gutierrez showed in the Arizona Fall League, though, that he has excellent upside. The California native throws a 91-95 mph fastball and a nasty, nose-to-toes curveball. He needs a better changeup to stay in the rotation. Gutierrez is about a year away from the MLB. If he gets his act together, he'll be a key cog in the Rangers' pitching staff.

Robbie Ross, lhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A

Ross was handled with kid gloves last year. The 20-year-old pitched 74 innings in the Northwest League after being taken in the supplemental round out of high school. Ross handled his competition easily, putting up a 3.12 FIP, 3.2 GO/AO, 24.1 K%, and 5.4 BB%. Though he is only 5-11, Ross has a quality arsenal. The Kentucky native throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, and a changeup. Some are concerned with his small stature, and his seconary pitches are works in progress. Ready for Low A, Ross offers mid-rotation potential.

Max Ramirez, c/1B

Age: 25 Level: MLB

The 2009 season was a lost year for Ramirez; he parlayed a poor '08 MLB debut into a .234/.323/.336 showing over 320 PAs in Triple-A. Ramirez is still capable of being a solid big leaguer, though. The Venezuela native is a gifted, patient righthanded hitter who can pepper the gaps. He has enough power to potentially hit 15-20 home runs a season. He does strike out a fair amount (21.2% MiLB career). Ramirez masquerades as a catcher, but he lacks athleticism and is not a strong receiver. He is very slow. Ramirez needs to shake off last season and regain his stroke in order to hit enough to be an average big league 1B.

Robbie Erlin, lhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

If not for his small build (5-11, 170), Erlin might have been in 1st-round consideration. The California native ended up going in the 3rd round. Erlin throws a solid 89-91 mph fastball and a good curveball. His changeup shows positive signs, but needs work. He pounds the zone and has advanced command for a high school product. His delivery is sound, and he is regarded as having excellent makeup. Erlin could twirl in the Low A South Atlantic League in 2010, and he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Jurickson Profar, ss

Age: 16 Level: none-Rookie

Profar received a $1.55 million signing bonus coming out of Curacao last summer. The Rangers liken him to Elvis Andrus in some ways. Defensively, Profar's good hands and plus arm stand out (he touches the low-90s off the mound). The switch-hitter has some feel for hitting for contact. His speed is average. Profar's savvy and instincts are considered advanced for his age. He is thin (around 5-11, 165) and doesn't have overwhelming offensive tools. Profar does not turn 17 for another two weeks, and he is far away from the majors. A better gauge of his potential will come after he plays the 2010 slate stateside.

Kasey Kiker, lhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

A 2006 1st-rounder, Kiker has lost a lot of his shine. He still shows enough upside to be interesting, though. Kiker has a good fastball in the low-90s and likes to challenge batters. His 80 mph changeup grades out as his top secondary offering, ahead of his inconsistent breaking ball. He hands out far too many free passes, though. (Kiker's walk rate was 11.8% in 2009.) He is primarily a flyball pitcher and Kiker might eventually head to the bullpen. At just 5-10, 170, his stature does nothing to assuage that concern. Kiker is a lefty with stuff that misses bats, but I don't think he'll be a true difference-maker. He'll spend 2010 in Triple-A.

Others: RHPs Wilfredo Boscan, Guillermo Moscoso, Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda, and Michael Main

Impact Talent: A+

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospects

Braden Tullis, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-High A

Tullis, the Rangers' 8th-round pick from 2009, hails from Idaho and attended Skagit Valley CC in Washington. He is one of my favorite sleepers. Tullis's 88-91 mph fastball has sink, and his changeup and slider are both decent with room for improvement. The 6-2, 200-pounder is very athletic. He throws strikes and works down in the zone. He had a strong pro debut, with a 2.39 FIP, 21.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 2.6 GO/AO. Tullis could jump onto the radar with a steady performance in A-ball in 2010.

Joe Wieland, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A

Wieland was a 2008 4th-rounder from a Nevada high school. I really liked the pick at the time (he controls a solid 3-pitch mix), but Wieland fell off the map after his 2009 season in Low A. He surrendered 102 hits in 83 IP and had a 5.30 ERA. Not much hope, right? Wrong. Wieland was hurt by a .371 BABIP and a 52.8 LOB%. His 3.59 FIP looks dramatically better than his ERA. The 6-3, 175-pounder didn't light it up in his first full season, but it's way too early to toss him on the prospect scrap heap. Although Wieland figures to be shipped to the unforgiving Cal League in 2010, I'm anticipating a solid campaign.

2009 AFL Rising Stars Game

The Arizona Fall League is a great venue for prospects in the first place. But the Rising Stars Game? That takes it to Futures Game proportions. Tonight was the fourth annual game, an all-star-like showcase for the brightest prospects in the circuit. The outcome is basically irrevelant, but the West Division did come back from a 7-0 first-inning deficit to win 8-7. The game (on MLB Network) was a great chance to get a closer look at the top prospects in the game. Here's what I saw:

Good

• Reds 1B Yonder Alonso had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double. He showed his knack for letting the ball travel deep and lashing line drives to left and center. Alonso is strong and has prodigious pop when he is able to extend his hands. On the downside, he looks even bulkier than he did last year, and he'll have to produce big-time to provide much overall value.
• Mariners OF Dustin Ackley drew a walk and, perhaps more importantly, tracked a tough fly ball to the warning track. This year's 2nd overall pick's special bat is a given, and transitioning to center field is his current focus.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro is all the rage in the prospect world right now, and with good reason; the 19-year-old Dominican has extraordinary talent. After actually seeing him on TV, though, he has truly become one of my favorite prospects. Castro plays with unbridled enthusiasm, energy, and flair. His quick hands and tremendous bat control have enabled the 19-year-old to hit for a high average and terrorize much older players. Castro is simply exciting, but he also seems to have the instincts to maximize his potential. He could develop more power and better plate discipline, and I'm looking forward to watching him next year.
• Rangers RHP Tanner Scheppers did not dip below 96 mph with his fastball, checking in at 96-98 consistently tonight. He added in a couple vicious breaking balls, although they were out of the zone. If Scheppers can stay healthy, he'll give Texas a high-upside arm.
• Reds RHP Mike Leake (who longtime readers know is my favorite player) cruised through an inning of work, consistently spotting his 89-91 mph sinker and tight slider away to righthanders.
• Reds OF Chris Heisey kept on chugging, hitting a double and a homer. Pure hard work and drive are going to make him a big leaguer. The 6-0, 200-pound Heisey has hit an astonishing .325 with 28 HRs overall this year.
• I've been a doubter for a while, but I'm starting to buy into Orioles 1B Brandon Snyder. The 22-year-old, who is basically big-league ready, has a good set-up, frame, and a strong swing. He is limited to an offensively-demanding position, but after seeing him tonight, I think he'll hit enough to be at least an average player there. Snyder even made a nifty defensive stop tonight.
• Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud was steady as usual, playing a mean third base and hitting a pair of singles to the opposite field.
• I'm a big believer in Rangers RHP Danny Gutierrez, but even I was surprised at how overpowering he looked tonight (although he surrendered a single and a walk). Gutierrez struck out the side all on devastating, 12-6, mid-70s curveballs. This is ordinarily his signature pitch, but the 22-year-0ld was also clocked at 94-96 mph with his fastball, terrific heat to go along with the rest of his package. Gutierrez could reach the majors in 2010, and if he avoids injury and disciplinary issues that have hindered him in the past, he'll be a #2 or #3 starter.
• Blue Jays RHP Reidier Gonzalez, a stocky 24-year-old about whom I knew little entering the game, put on a clinic on the mound. He twirled a 1-2-3 inning, showcasing a 90-91 mph fastball and an excellent curveball and change. Gonzalez, who pitched at Double-A in 2009, threw just 7 pitches, all for strikes.
• Mariners SS Carlos Triunfel blasted a 3rd-inning homer to left. One of three teens in the Rising Stars Game (along with Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias), he also looked strong at shortstop (though his below-average range will force him to move elsewhere).
• Cubs RHP Blake Parker got out of trouble with filthy stuff. His fastball sat at 92-94 mph, while his hard slider and even a changeup showed promise. The closer for the I-Cubs this year, Parker will get a taste of Chicago in 2010.
• Yankees prospect Mike Dunn's fastball was the only reliable pitch he had tonight, but the 24-year-old lefty sat at 95-96 mph, enough to get through an inning unscathed.
• Indians prospect Matt McBride atoned for an ugly strikeout against Rockies RHP Andrew Johnston by launching a game-winning home run in the the 8th. There will need to be a lot more where that came from for McBride to become a quality big leaguer.
• True to form, Braves RHP Craig Kimbrel pumped 95-97 mph fastballs (walking one and fanning one) to notch a save.

Bad

• Braves LHP Mike Minor had a miserable outing, putting his team in a 7-run hole without completing the 1st inning. This year's 7th overall pick, and a former Vanderbilt ace, showed a 91-92 mph fastball (more velo than I was expecting), but he didn't settle into a groove with his command, and his offspeed stuff was flat and indistinguishable. His delivery is not all that smooth, but I did like Minor's poise. He simply carries himself and looks like a good pitcher, and I am still very high on him despite the rough showing.
• Domonic Brown had a solid game, going 1-for-4 with a 2B, BB, and CS. Seeing him play, though, I realized he is more raw than I thought. Brown's swing was awkard, unbalanced, and not pretty to watch. It doesn't look like the game comes easily to Brown, and his actions lack fluidity, grace, and orthodoxy. Nonetheless, Brown has a stunning combination of athleticism, power potential, arm, and speed. He still is an elite prospect.
• Royals 3B Mike Moustakas backed up his scouting reports with his display tonight. He has bat speed and a fine swing, but his lack of patience and pull approach frequently undermine him. His power potential has always been enormous, but it's time for Moustakas to make some adjustments. Moreover, he looked pudgy and unintimidating.
• Tigers OF Casper Wells looked highly susceptible to breaking balls, going 0-for-3 and fishing for sliders in the dirt unsuccessfully. I still hold out hope!
• The decline of Pirates LHP Danny Moskos continues. The former Clemson ace was universally panned for being selected over Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft (which was not his fault, of course). He fell apart in 2008 before putting together a decent campaign in the bullpen this year. Tonight Moskos topped out at 92 mph, lacked a put-away secondary pitch, threw across his body, and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• Injuries were another negative aspect of the showcase. Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton, three of the finest that the minors have to offer, were all absent because of (supposedly) minor injuries. I was also looking to see Mariners RHP Phillippe Aumont and Brewers RHP Mark Rogers pitch, but neither got into the game. Meanwhile, Red Sox SS Casey Kelly and Braves 1B Freddie Freeman were not even on the roster.

Others

• Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-2 with a single and a groundout. I liked his stance and swing, but he still hasn't shown he can hit an offspeed pitch.
• Giants C Buster Posey had an infield hit and a walk. He also looked solid behind the plate. Posey has been brutal thus far in the Arizona Fall League, but that can be attributed to him being worn down at the end of the season; there's no cause for concern.
• Pirates OF Jose Tabata, batting leadoff, legged out a pair of infield hits, but also misplayed a ball in center. Tabata has consistently barreled up balls in the AFL; learning to drive more balls over the wall is his last obstacle.
• Though he blew the lead and took a loss, I liked what I saw from Nationals RHP Drew Storen. His 95-96 mph fasball is a plus pitch, and his nearly unhittable slider features late bite. His command will be plus in the future, so the Stanford product has closer potential. He was saddled with the loss tonight, but only threw one mistake pitch.
• Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Allen is struggling in Arizona, showing the flaws in his swing, but the strong first baseman displayed his huge power, smashing a homer off Minor.
• Shortstop Jose Iglesias, a Cuban defector recently signed by the Red Sox, showed he has work to do with the bat, whiffing in his two at-bats. Iglesias is just 19, though, and his defense draws rave reviews.
• White Sox OF Jordan Danks went the other way for a single, but he was underwhelming other than that. What surprised me about the 23-year-old is just how big he is (he's listed at 6-4, 210). He needs to figure out this hitting-for-power thing.
• Tigers LHP Andy Oliver danced through trouble in a scoreless 6th inning. He was straight-up bringing it, attacking batters with a heavy 93-96 mph fastball. Oliver has major work to do on his slider (and changeup), though, and he also threw only 12 of 22 pitches for strikes in tonight's game.
• I'm not a big Josh Fields guy, but the Mariners righty showed his usual 93-95 mph fastball in recording 4 easy outs.
• A's 2B Jemile Weeks went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He also swiped third base.
• Padres 2B Lance Zawadzki looked decent at the plate. The switch-hitter's bat will be his meal ticket, but he made a slick stop he made up ranging up the middle, which is encouraging.

Starlin Castro

Yonder Alonso

Domonic Brown

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com