State of the System: Texas Rangers

Quick Look

The reigning #1 system in baseball, the Rangers' youth movement is underway. They've incorporated youngsters like Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and Tommy Hunter into the fold, and their young talent should allow them to compete with anyone in the future.

Top Prospects

Justin Smoak, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Smoak, a 2008 1st-rounder, is the best first-base prospect in the minor leagues. The 6-4, 220-pounder has excellent power and a good idea at the plate. He put up a .328/.449/.481 line in Double-A in 2009 before stumbling in Triple-A. (His wOBA dropped from .427 to .336, and his K rate rose from 15.4% to 18.9%.) Much of that can be attributed to injury, however. He has strong plate discipline and line-drive rates, and I expect him to be an outstanding run producer in the big leagues. Smoak, who hails from the same South Carolina high school as Orioles stud-in-the-making Matt Wieters, is an above-average defensive first baseman, but his speed and athleticism are very limited. He needs some more at-bats in the minors, but Smoak has the potential to bounce back and be a switch-hitting Justin Morneau-type.

Neftali Feliz, rhp

Age: 21 Level: MLB

A part of the lopsided Mark Teixeira trade with the Braves in 2007, Feliz has one of the best pure arms on the planet. He generates consistent low- to mid-90s velocity from an easy motion, and he sometimes touches triple digits. His breaking ball and changeup need more consistency, but they are promising. Feliz has posted a 28.8 K% in his career, along with a 10.5 BB%. He needs to polish his command and put the finishing touches on his secondary stuff. The 6-3, 180-pounder also has never worked a 130+ IP campaign. He reached the majors and was unhittable in 30 relief innings last season, showing that he could be a dominating closer in short order, but Feliz has even greater upside at the front of the rotation. Keying in on his #1 stuff, the Rangers will continue to develop him in that role.

Martin Perez, lhp

Age: 18 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

His stuff is above-average, but Perez is also lauded for how polished he is for his age. The 6-0 Venezuelan posted a 2.46 FIP and 26.9 K% in Low A in 2009. He also induced a healthy amount of ground balls, and the teenager received a Double-A cameo at the end of the year. Perez works off a low-90s fastball that tops out at 95 mph. He has greatly improved the quality of his changeup, and he owns a late-breaking curveball. The primary drawback is that Perez is exceedingly young and his durability has yet to be tested. (His delivery, however, looks easy and clean.) His command naturally isn't a finished product. Perez will throw a full season in Double-A in 2010 and try to live up to his Johan Santana comparisons. He is one of the finest lefty prospects in the game and rounds out Texas's amazing prospect trifecta.

Tanner Scheppers, rhp

Age: 23 Level: none-Double-A

Scheppers is an extremely unique prospect. The erstwhile shortstop shifted to the mound at Fresno State to take advantage of his electric arm, then had a severe shoulder injury that caused him to miss the Bulldogs' unbelievable run to the College World Series title in 2008. Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates that year, but got $1.25 million from Texas in 2009. The 6-4, 200-pounder's heater ranges anywhere from the low-90s to 99 mph. His curveball is devastating, though inconsistent. The downside is Scheppers is wild and has no changeup to speak of. His delivery and injury history also point him toward the bullpen. He figures to go straight to Double-A in 2010. My best conjecture is that he'll be a late-inning reliever.

Danny Gutierrez, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Gutierrez hasn't seized his potential yet due to some injuries and run-ins with the law. The Royals, fed up with his antics, essentially gave up the 6-1 righty in September. Gutierrez showed in the Arizona Fall League, though, that he has excellent upside. The California native throws a 91-95 mph fastball and a nasty, nose-to-toes curveball. He needs a better changeup to stay in the rotation. Gutierrez is about a year away from the MLB. If he gets his act together, he'll be a key cog in the Rangers' pitching staff.

Robbie Ross, lhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A

Ross was handled with kid gloves last year. The 20-year-old pitched 74 innings in the Northwest League after being taken in the supplemental round out of high school. Ross handled his competition easily, putting up a 3.12 FIP, 3.2 GO/AO, 24.1 K%, and 5.4 BB%. Though he is only 5-11, Ross has a quality arsenal. The Kentucky native throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, and a changeup. Some are concerned with his small stature, and his seconary pitches are works in progress. Ready for Low A, Ross offers mid-rotation potential.

Max Ramirez, c/1B

Age: 25 Level: MLB

The 2009 season was a lost year for Ramirez; he parlayed a poor '08 MLB debut into a .234/.323/.336 showing over 320 PAs in Triple-A. Ramirez is still capable of being a solid big leaguer, though. The Venezuela native is a gifted, patient righthanded hitter who can pepper the gaps. He has enough power to potentially hit 15-20 home runs a season. He does strike out a fair amount (21.2% MiLB career). Ramirez masquerades as a catcher, but he lacks athleticism and is not a strong receiver. He is very slow. Ramirez needs to shake off last season and regain his stroke in order to hit enough to be an average big league 1B.

Robbie Erlin, lhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

If not for his small build (5-11, 170), Erlin might have been in 1st-round consideration. The California native ended up going in the 3rd round. Erlin throws a solid 89-91 mph fastball and a good curveball. His changeup shows positive signs, but needs work. He pounds the zone and has advanced command for a high school product. His delivery is sound, and he is regarded as having excellent makeup. Erlin could twirl in the Low A South Atlantic League in 2010, and he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Jurickson Profar, ss

Age: 16 Level: none-Rookie

Profar received a $1.55 million signing bonus coming out of Curacao last summer. The Rangers liken him to Elvis Andrus in some ways. Defensively, Profar's good hands and plus arm stand out (he touches the low-90s off the mound). The switch-hitter has some feel for hitting for contact. His speed is average. Profar's savvy and instincts are considered advanced for his age. He is thin (around 5-11, 165) and doesn't have overwhelming offensive tools. Profar does not turn 17 for another two weeks, and he is far away from the majors. A better gauge of his potential will come after he plays the 2010 slate stateside.

Kasey Kiker, lhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

A 2006 1st-rounder, Kiker has lost a lot of his shine. He still shows enough upside to be interesting, though. Kiker has a good fastball in the low-90s and likes to challenge batters. His 80 mph changeup grades out as his top secondary offering, ahead of his inconsistent breaking ball. He hands out far too many free passes, though. (Kiker's walk rate was 11.8% in 2009.) He is primarily a flyball pitcher and Kiker might eventually head to the bullpen. At just 5-10, 170, his stature does nothing to assuage that concern. Kiker is a lefty with stuff that misses bats, but I don't think he'll be a true difference-maker. He'll spend 2010 in Triple-A.

Others: RHPs Wilfredo Boscan, Guillermo Moscoso, Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda, and Michael Main

Impact Talent: A+

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospects

Braden Tullis, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-High A

Tullis, the Rangers' 8th-round pick from 2009, hails from Idaho and attended Skagit Valley CC in Washington. He is one of my favorite sleepers. Tullis's 88-91 mph fastball has sink, and his changeup and slider are both decent with room for improvement. The 6-2, 200-pounder is very athletic. He throws strikes and works down in the zone. He had a strong pro debut, with a 2.39 FIP, 21.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 2.6 GO/AO. Tullis could jump onto the radar with a steady performance in A-ball in 2010.

Joe Wieland, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A

Wieland was a 2008 4th-rounder from a Nevada high school. I really liked the pick at the time (he controls a solid 3-pitch mix), but Wieland fell off the map after his 2009 season in Low A. He surrendered 102 hits in 83 IP and had a 5.30 ERA. Not much hope, right? Wrong. Wieland was hurt by a .371 BABIP and a 52.8 LOB%. His 3.59 FIP looks dramatically better than his ERA. The 6-3, 175-pounder didn't light it up in his first full season, but it's way too early to toss him on the prospect scrap heap. Although Wieland figures to be shipped to the unforgiving Cal League in 2010, I'm anticipating a solid campaign.

Feliz Electric In Debut

Rangers RHP Neftali Feliz, perhaps the minors' hardest thrower and one of the best pitching prospects in the game, was just promoted to Texas. He didn't waste any time making a favorable first impression. Feliz worked 2 scoreless innings of relief (in a 1-0 game, no less), struck out 4, and hit triple digits on the radar gun against the A's tonight. Nothing like a flawless debut to raise expectations. While I regard first baseman Justin Smoak as the organization's top prospect, Feliz has sky-high potential. If he doesn't wind up as a top-of-the-rotation starter, he could easily take his high-octane stuff to the bullpen permanently and become an excellent closer.

In other news, Orioles LHP Brian Matusz has also been called up to the majors. He doesn't have experience above Double-A, but Matusz shouldn't be too overmatched; he's extremely polished. I like him more than fellow O's hurler Chris Tillman, who was also recently promoted to Baltimore. It isn't even September yet, but tons of prospects have been getting the call. Along with those guys, Astros RHP Bud Norris, Padres RHP Mat Latos, Red Sox OF Josh Reddick, and more are now up in the MLB.

Neftali Feliz

*Photo courtesy of www.dallasnews.com

World Team Takes Futures Game, 7-5

Today was one of the best days of the year for any avid prospect-follower: it was the Futures Game! There was a 4+ hour rain delay in the middle of the first inning, which unfortunately cut the game down to 7 innings, but there was still some good action.

Chris Tillman, a righty on the cusp of the big leagues for the Orioles, got the start for the U.S. His command looked shaky, and he allowed a walk, 2 hits, and 2 runs. Chalk it up to nerves; it seems like every hurler that takes the mound in top of the first of the Futures Game is a bit off his game. To be fair, one of the hits was just a dribbler in front of the plate, and Tillman did flash a low-90s fastball and a 12-to-6 knee-buckler.

Rangers RHP Neftali Feliz, on the other hand, looked to be in complete control in the bottom half. (Feliz wasn't slated to start, but the rain delay wiped out Red Sox RHP Junichi Tazawa's scheduled inning.) Working exclusively from the stretch as he prepares to join the Rangers' big league bullpen, Feliz gassed up Rockies 2B Eric Young, Jr., Rays OF Desmond Jennings, and A's 1B Chris Carter. His only blemish was a 10-pitch walk to Cardinals 3B Brett Wallace. Feliz took the prize for highest radar gun reading of the day, too, reportedly touching triple digits. He had his trademark smooth motion and lightning-quick arm, but I didn't see any secondary pitches of note. (He didn't need them today.)

Rockies RHP Jhoulys Chacin was the only other World pitcher who had a stellar outing. He walked one, but he also fanned 2 and breezed through a scoreless frame. Chacin caught several batters out in front on his changeup, a plus pitch for the 21-year-old.

On the U.S. side, several pitchers looked good, and none moreso than Phillies RHP Kyle Drabek. The 2006 1st-rounder and Tommy John alum whipped through a 10-pitch second inning. He touched 96 with his fastball, tossed at least one nasty curve, and showed substantially better command and maturity than I expected.

Mat Latos, in the midst of a breakout year for the Padres, also handled an inning of work with ease. It only took the 6-foot-6 righty 8 pitches (all sinking fastballs from 94-96 mph) to retire the World in order. I wasn't all that high on Latos coming into the year, but I can't argue with his Futures Game performance or his 8-1, 1.37 (and 6.1 K-BB ratio) performance in the minors this year.

Red Sox RHP Casey Kelly, who used just 9 pitches to work through a perfect 6th inning for the U.S. team, also came as advertised. Despite being just 19 years old and a part-time shortstop, he had an easy delivery, 92-93 mph fastball, good curveball, poise, and control. (He's shaping up to be one of the very best pitching prospects in the game with the year he's had.) Kelly induced a groundout and a pair of flyouts before leaving.

Mariners OF Tyson Gillies was one of the primary offensive stars for the World, as he electrified the game with his speed. He got to first in 3.4 seconds on a drag bunt, and he also swiped a couple of bases. Jennings actually one-upped Gillies, stealing 3 on the day.

Besides that, the biggest storyline of the game was shoddy defensive play. C Tyler Flowers (White Sox) and 2B Jemile Weeks (A's) both committed throwing errors for the U.S., as did 3B Dayan Viciedo (White Sox) for the World team. All of those errors came in crucial spots and led to runs. Weeks tried to come up with a spectacular play on a grounder up the middle, but tossed it past SS Danny Espinosa (Nationals). That helped the 4-run 7th-inning outburst that led the World to victory. Chris Carter also couldn't glove a ball down the line that inning, and it resulted in a go-ahead double. It was a tough play, but the defensively-challenged Carter would've done well to at least block it up and prevent a run. That ball was tagged by pinch-hitter Rene Tosoni, earning the Twins outfielder MVP honors for the game.

Before the World comeback, U.S. backstop Jason Castro was in line for the post-game hardware. In addition to throwing out Padres speed demon Luis Durango at 3rd base, Castro smacked a go-ahead 3-run homer in the 5th inning (one of two shots in the game, along with Young's 3rd-inning shot off Cardinals RHP Francisco Samuel). Castro, the 10th overall pick last year out of Stanford, is having a solid year overall, batting .304/.383/.478, albeit in hitter-friendly conditions.

A couple other players who I was impressed with were Cubs IF Starlin Castro, Braves OF Jason Heyward, and Brewers 2B Brett Lawrie. You can also check out the box score for all the details.

And before I wrap it up, I want to express a problem I have with the Futures Game format: Why are organizations limited to only 2 participants? And related to that, why does each organization and as many different countries as possible need to be represented? We got to witness today what mess it can cause. While prospects like Buster Posey, Tim Alderson, Wade Davis, and Michael Taylor sat at home and watched, players such as Chia-Jen Lo, K.D. Kang, and Luis Perez played poorly as their organization or country's lone rep. I think it'd be great to allow deep organizations to fill more than 2 roster slots. It would just illustrate how their system is thriving. Same with the countries. Instead of having a mediocre Korean representative, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela should take up another roster spot, assuming the top available talent is from there. If 2/3 of the roster was from the D.R., that just shows how much of a hotbed it is. And if a team or a country can't muster up a competent player, then just shut them out of the game to show its current quality. Seriously, who would rather have those players in the game than Buster Posey? For the sake of having the absolute cream of the crop and not just a certain number from each team, the cap should be lifted. Other than that, this year's Futures Game was amazing yet again.

Neftali Feliz

Casey Kelly

Jason Heyward

*Photos courtesy of www.yahoo.com and www.mlb.com