State of the System: Toronto Blue Jays

Quick Look

The Blue Jays have a wealth of decent pitching at the major league level, as well as potent young hitters like Travis Snider and Adam Lind. Toronto's disastrous 2009 draft, possibly the worst effort in the game, didn't help the organization's future prospects at all. Another problem is that they play in the AL East. The Roy Halladay deal greatly boosted the organizational talent, netting TBJ three of the top five players on this list and giving them some actual potential impact players.

Top Prospects

Brett Wallace, 3B/1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Wallace's polished lefthanded bat has always been his calling card. He uses a quiet stance and is able to hit fastballs and offspeed offerings alike. A former Pac-10 Triple Crown winner and owner of a .305/.384/.475 career minor league line, Wallace has strong pitch recognition and above-average power. I was disappointed that his walk rate was only 7.8% in 2009, however. The 6-1, 245-pounder has a thick lower half and below-average athleticism. He won't stick at third base in the long term. He also strikes out a fair amount (19.3%). Wallace's hitting prowess, though perhaps exaggerated sometimes, makes him an excellent bet to be an average big leaguer or better. His offense might even be good enough to make him a star.

Kyle Drabek, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Drabek, the son of former big league Cy Young winner Doug, was the 18th overall pick in 2006. His pure stuff was among the best in the draft, but his volatile makeup concerned many a team. Drabek underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, causing him to miss about a year, and he seems to have calmed his demeanor somewhat since then. Drabek's pitching is what has people talking. The 6-0, 185-pounder has an 88-93 mph fastball and a filthy curveball. Drabek's control has also improved and he walked only 7.6% of batters (while fanning 22.9%) in 2009. He is very athletic and competive. His changeup needs improvement for him to stick in the rotation. Drabek's command is also not quite there. He is ready for Triple-A, and Drabek a few refinements away from being a quality mid-rotation hurler. He could also be the next Tom Gordon in a bullpen role.

Zach Stewart, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Stewart has enjoyed an excellent two-year professional career (2.70 FIP), and became one of the Blue Jays' best prospects when he came over in the Scott Rolen trade. Stewart's bread and butter is his 92-94 mph sinker. The Texas Tech product rode the pitch to a 2.0 GO/AO ratio in 2009. Stewart also possesses a sharp slider and a changeup. The latter has improved, but he may still end up in the bullpen. (He worked as both a starter and reliever last season.) Stewart is able to generate enough swings and misses, but he can sharpen his command. Optimists think he's a #2-3 starter, while others think his heater is his only reliable pitch and will send him to the bullpen. Almost ready for Toronto, Stewart will return to Triple-A and to the starting rotation.

Chad Jenkins, rhp

Age: 22 Level: none-High A

The 20th overall selection in last year's draft, Jenkins signed for $1.359 million. The Kennesaw State product combines both stuff and pitchability. Jenkins's fastball sits around 90-94 mph. His slider and changeup are solid pitches, and the burly 6-4, 235 righthander throws strikes with regularity. There are no glaring weaknesses for Jenkins. He needs to stay on top of his conditioning and refine his secondary pitches. He'll move quickly, and could be a #3 starter or better.

Travis d'Arnaud, c

Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A

The Blue Jays acquired d'Arnaud from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay deal. The 2007 supplemental-rounder is one of the better catching prospects in the minors. D'Arnaud was regarded as a stout defender in high school, but while he has an above-average arm and good hands, he wasn't great defensively in 2009. I think he'll ultimately be fine behind the plate, but he has room for improvement. D'Arnaud didn't have a standout offensive campaign either last year, going .255/.319/.419 with a 7.6 BB%. He has gap power and doesn't whiff excessively, though, so he could develop into an above-average hitter for a catcher. D'Arnaud is a pronounced flyball hitter. He will advance to High A in 2010, and the season could help decide if he or his brother Chase, a Pirates farmhand, is the better prospect. Travis needs to improve, but he has the all-around tools to grow into a starting MLB catcher.

J.P. Arencibia, c

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Arencibia, a former superstar at Tennessee, has two big league skills: plus power and solid defense. He also has good makeup. He is undermined, however, by a lack of plate discipline. Arencibia's career BB-K ratio is a grotesque 58-271 (4.5% and 21.1%, respectively). The 6-0, 215-pounder socked 54 extra-base hits and had a .208 IsoP in Triple-A last season, but his OBP was an unacceptable .284. His approach is simply too aggressive and his swing too long. Arencibia, a 1st-round pick in 2007, needs to be more patient for his potent bat to play. The tools are there, and Arencibia will attempt to put them together during a repeat of Triple-A this year.

Brad Mills, lhp

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Mills is a classic finesse lefty. The 2007 4th-rounder from Arizona frequently works off his curveball and plus changeup. He is deceptive and mixes his pitches well. Mills was torn apart in a 14-inning stint with Toronto last season, though, and his stuff may not be good enough to fool hitters at the highest level. His FIP has increased at every level (2.03 in Short-Season, 3.80 in Triple-A, 9.88 in the majors). Mills's fastball tops out at 90 mph, and his 5-11 frame doesn't add any intimidation either. He is an excellent bet to have a major league career, but Mills needs pinpoint command to be more than a thumbing staff-filler.

David Cooper, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Cooper earned the tag of "sweet-swinging first baseman" during his time in college. The California native was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft, and he'd ideally be a high-average, line-drive hitter. Cooper struggled in his first full pro season, however, hitting .258/.340/.389 in Double-A. Cooper's hand-eye coordination and gap power are above-average, but he does not have the home run power of a typical first baseman. The 6-0, 200-pounder is anchored to that position because he is too slow and unathletic to play the outfield. I liked Cooper in college, but now I'm not sure if there's enough to project him as more than a fringe-average big leaguer.

Henderson Alvarez, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A

Alvarez came out of nowhere to have a terrific 2009 season. The young Venezuelan righty posted a 2.43 FIP in Low A, while walking a mere 3.7% of opposing batters. Alvarez's fastball isn't overpowering, coming in around 90 mph, but his diving changeup is a weapon. He served up only one home run in 124 IP last year. Alvarez's breaking ball needs to show improvement for him to remain the rotation. He has proven to be a prolific zone-pounder, but he isn't nasty enough to consistently miss bats. (His K rate in 2009 was 17.9%.) Ticketed for the generous Florida State League, Alvarez looks like a #4 starter.

Jake Marisnick, of

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Marisnick was drafted on upside. Toronto nabbed the California prepster in the 3rd round last year and signed him for $1 million. Marisnick has an explosive 6-4, 200-pound frame and combination of speed and power. A potential center fielder or right fielder, Marisnick also has a strong arm. His hitting mechanics, however, are questioned, and teams would have been willing to draft him much higher if they thought he had a better chance of hitting. The athletic Marisnick will require several years and thousands of plate appearances in the minors, but the payoff could be very large.

Others: RHPs Danny Farquhar, Josh Roenicke, and Andrew Liebel; LHPs Luis Perez and Tim Collins; SS Justin Jackson; 3B Kevin Ahrens

Impact Talent: C-

Farm System Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect

Carlos Perez, c

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

Perez controls the zone well for a teenager, having compiled more walks than strikeouts as a pro. Besides his batting eye, he also has a solid feel for hitting (.291/.364/.433 in the GCL last season). Behind the plate, he needs to clean up his footwork, blocking, etc., but has a strong arm and the time to develop into a plus defender. He is very young, but Perez shows the ability to be an all-around catcher. He could be in the New York-Penn or the Midwest League this season.

World Team Takes Futures Game, 7-5

Today was one of the best days of the year for any avid prospect-follower: it was the Futures Game! There was a 4+ hour rain delay in the middle of the first inning, which unfortunately cut the game down to 7 innings, but there was still some good action.

Chris Tillman, a righty on the cusp of the big leagues for the Orioles, got the start for the U.S. His command looked shaky, and he allowed a walk, 2 hits, and 2 runs. Chalk it up to nerves; it seems like every hurler that takes the mound in top of the first of the Futures Game is a bit off his game. To be fair, one of the hits was just a dribbler in front of the plate, and Tillman did flash a low-90s fastball and a 12-to-6 knee-buckler.

Rangers RHP Neftali Feliz, on the other hand, looked to be in complete control in the bottom half. (Feliz wasn't slated to start, but the rain delay wiped out Red Sox RHP Junichi Tazawa's scheduled inning.) Working exclusively from the stretch as he prepares to join the Rangers' big league bullpen, Feliz gassed up Rockies 2B Eric Young, Jr., Rays OF Desmond Jennings, and A's 1B Chris Carter. His only blemish was a 10-pitch walk to Cardinals 3B Brett Wallace. Feliz took the prize for highest radar gun reading of the day, too, reportedly touching triple digits. He had his trademark smooth motion and lightning-quick arm, but I didn't see any secondary pitches of note. (He didn't need them today.)

Rockies RHP Jhoulys Chacin was the only other World pitcher who had a stellar outing. He walked one, but he also fanned 2 and breezed through a scoreless frame. Chacin caught several batters out in front on his changeup, a plus pitch for the 21-year-old.

On the U.S. side, several pitchers looked good, and none moreso than Phillies RHP Kyle Drabek. The 2006 1st-rounder and Tommy John alum whipped through a 10-pitch second inning. He touched 96 with his fastball, tossed at least one nasty curve, and showed substantially better command and maturity than I expected.

Mat Latos, in the midst of a breakout year for the Padres, also handled an inning of work with ease. It only took the 6-foot-6 righty 8 pitches (all sinking fastballs from 94-96 mph) to retire the World in order. I wasn't all that high on Latos coming into the year, but I can't argue with his Futures Game performance or his 8-1, 1.37 (and 6.1 K-BB ratio) performance in the minors this year.

Red Sox RHP Casey Kelly, who used just 9 pitches to work through a perfect 6th inning for the U.S. team, also came as advertised. Despite being just 19 years old and a part-time shortstop, he had an easy delivery, 92-93 mph fastball, good curveball, poise, and control. (He's shaping up to be one of the very best pitching prospects in the game with the year he's had.) Kelly induced a groundout and a pair of flyouts before leaving.

Mariners OF Tyson Gillies was one of the primary offensive stars for the World, as he electrified the game with his speed. He got to first in 3.4 seconds on a drag bunt, and he also swiped a couple of bases. Jennings actually one-upped Gillies, stealing 3 on the day.

Besides that, the biggest storyline of the game was shoddy defensive play. C Tyler Flowers (White Sox) and 2B Jemile Weeks (A's) both committed throwing errors for the U.S., as did 3B Dayan Viciedo (White Sox) for the World team. All of those errors came in crucial spots and led to runs. Weeks tried to come up with a spectacular play on a grounder up the middle, but tossed it past SS Danny Espinosa (Nationals). That helped the 4-run 7th-inning outburst that led the World to victory. Chris Carter also couldn't glove a ball down the line that inning, and it resulted in a go-ahead double. It was a tough play, but the defensively-challenged Carter would've done well to at least block it up and prevent a run. That ball was tagged by pinch-hitter Rene Tosoni, earning the Twins outfielder MVP honors for the game.

Before the World comeback, U.S. backstop Jason Castro was in line for the post-game hardware. In addition to throwing out Padres speed demon Luis Durango at 3rd base, Castro smacked a go-ahead 3-run homer in the 5th inning (one of two shots in the game, along with Young's 3rd-inning shot off Cardinals RHP Francisco Samuel). Castro, the 10th overall pick last year out of Stanford, is having a solid year overall, batting .304/.383/.478, albeit in hitter-friendly conditions.

A couple other players who I was impressed with were Cubs IF Starlin Castro, Braves OF Jason Heyward, and Brewers 2B Brett Lawrie. You can also check out the box score for all the details.

And before I wrap it up, I want to express a problem I have with the Futures Game format: Why are organizations limited to only 2 participants? And related to that, why does each organization and as many different countries as possible need to be represented? We got to witness today what mess it can cause. While prospects like Buster Posey, Tim Alderson, Wade Davis, and Michael Taylor sat at home and watched, players such as Chia-Jen Lo, K.D. Kang, and Luis Perez played poorly as their organization or country's lone rep. I think it'd be great to allow deep organizations to fill more than 2 roster slots. It would just illustrate how their system is thriving. Same with the countries. Instead of having a mediocre Korean representative, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela should take up another roster spot, assuming the top available talent is from there. If 2/3 of the roster was from the D.R., that just shows how much of a hotbed it is. And if a team or a country can't muster up a competent player, then just shut them out of the game to show its current quality. Seriously, who would rather have those players in the game than Buster Posey? For the sake of having the absolute cream of the crop and not just a certain number from each team, the cap should be lifted. Other than that, this year's Futures Game was amazing yet again.

Neftali Feliz

Casey Kelly

Jason Heyward

*Photos courtesy of www.yahoo.com and www.mlb.com