State of the System: Toronto Blue Jays

Quick Look

The Blue Jays have a wealth of decent pitching at the major league level, as well as potent young hitters like Travis Snider and Adam Lind. Toronto's disastrous 2009 draft, possibly the worst effort in the game, didn't help the organization's future prospects at all. Another problem is that they play in the AL East. The Roy Halladay deal greatly boosted the organizational talent, netting TBJ three of the top five players on this list and giving them some actual potential impact players.

Top Prospects

Brett Wallace, 3B/1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Wallace's polished lefthanded bat has always been his calling card. He uses a quiet stance and is able to hit fastballs and offspeed offerings alike. A former Pac-10 Triple Crown winner and owner of a .305/.384/.475 career minor league line, Wallace has strong pitch recognition and above-average power. I was disappointed that his walk rate was only 7.8% in 2009, however. The 6-1, 245-pounder has a thick lower half and below-average athleticism. He won't stick at third base in the long term. He also strikes out a fair amount (19.3%). Wallace's hitting prowess, though perhaps exaggerated sometimes, makes him an excellent bet to be an average big leaguer or better. His offense might even be good enough to make him a star.

Kyle Drabek, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Drabek, the son of former big league Cy Young winner Doug, was the 18th overall pick in 2006. His pure stuff was among the best in the draft, but his volatile makeup concerned many a team. Drabek underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, causing him to miss about a year, and he seems to have calmed his demeanor somewhat since then. Drabek's pitching is what has people talking. The 6-0, 185-pounder has an 88-93 mph fastball and a filthy curveball. Drabek's control has also improved and he walked only 7.6% of batters (while fanning 22.9%) in 2009. He is very athletic and competive. His changeup needs improvement for him to stick in the rotation. Drabek's command is also not quite there. He is ready for Triple-A, and Drabek a few refinements away from being a quality mid-rotation hurler. He could also be the next Tom Gordon in a bullpen role.

Zach Stewart, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Stewart has enjoyed an excellent two-year professional career (2.70 FIP), and became one of the Blue Jays' best prospects when he came over in the Scott Rolen trade. Stewart's bread and butter is his 92-94 mph sinker. The Texas Tech product rode the pitch to a 2.0 GO/AO ratio in 2009. Stewart also possesses a sharp slider and a changeup. The latter has improved, but he may still end up in the bullpen. (He worked as both a starter and reliever last season.) Stewart is able to generate enough swings and misses, but he can sharpen his command. Optimists think he's a #2-3 starter, while others think his heater is his only reliable pitch and will send him to the bullpen. Almost ready for Toronto, Stewart will return to Triple-A and to the starting rotation.

Chad Jenkins, rhp

Age: 22 Level: none-High A

The 20th overall selection in last year's draft, Jenkins signed for $1.359 million. The Kennesaw State product combines both stuff and pitchability. Jenkins's fastball sits around 90-94 mph. His slider and changeup are solid pitches, and the burly 6-4, 235 righthander throws strikes with regularity. There are no glaring weaknesses for Jenkins. He needs to stay on top of his conditioning and refine his secondary pitches. He'll move quickly, and could be a #3 starter or better.

Travis d'Arnaud, c

Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A

The Blue Jays acquired d'Arnaud from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay deal. The 2007 supplemental-rounder is one of the better catching prospects in the minors. D'Arnaud was regarded as a stout defender in high school, but while he has an above-average arm and good hands, he wasn't great defensively in 2009. I think he'll ultimately be fine behind the plate, but he has room for improvement. D'Arnaud didn't have a standout offensive campaign either last year, going .255/.319/.419 with a 7.6 BB%. He has gap power and doesn't whiff excessively, though, so he could develop into an above-average hitter for a catcher. D'Arnaud is a pronounced flyball hitter. He will advance to High A in 2010, and the season could help decide if he or his brother Chase, a Pirates farmhand, is the better prospect. Travis needs to improve, but he has the all-around tools to grow into a starting MLB catcher.

J.P. Arencibia, c

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Arencibia, a former superstar at Tennessee, has two big league skills: plus power and solid defense. He also has good makeup. He is undermined, however, by a lack of plate discipline. Arencibia's career BB-K ratio is a grotesque 58-271 (4.5% and 21.1%, respectively). The 6-0, 215-pounder socked 54 extra-base hits and had a .208 IsoP in Triple-A last season, but his OBP was an unacceptable .284. His approach is simply too aggressive and his swing too long. Arencibia, a 1st-round pick in 2007, needs to be more patient for his potent bat to play. The tools are there, and Arencibia will attempt to put them together during a repeat of Triple-A this year.

Brad Mills, lhp

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Mills is a classic finesse lefty. The 2007 4th-rounder from Arizona frequently works off his curveball and plus changeup. He is deceptive and mixes his pitches well. Mills was torn apart in a 14-inning stint with Toronto last season, though, and his stuff may not be good enough to fool hitters at the highest level. His FIP has increased at every level (2.03 in Short-Season, 3.80 in Triple-A, 9.88 in the majors). Mills's fastball tops out at 90 mph, and his 5-11 frame doesn't add any intimidation either. He is an excellent bet to have a major league career, but Mills needs pinpoint command to be more than a thumbing staff-filler.

David Cooper, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Cooper earned the tag of "sweet-swinging first baseman" during his time in college. The California native was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft, and he'd ideally be a high-average, line-drive hitter. Cooper struggled in his first full pro season, however, hitting .258/.340/.389 in Double-A. Cooper's hand-eye coordination and gap power are above-average, but he does not have the home run power of a typical first baseman. The 6-0, 200-pounder is anchored to that position because he is too slow and unathletic to play the outfield. I liked Cooper in college, but now I'm not sure if there's enough to project him as more than a fringe-average big leaguer.

Henderson Alvarez, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A

Alvarez came out of nowhere to have a terrific 2009 season. The young Venezuelan righty posted a 2.43 FIP in Low A, while walking a mere 3.7% of opposing batters. Alvarez's fastball isn't overpowering, coming in around 90 mph, but his diving changeup is a weapon. He served up only one home run in 124 IP last year. Alvarez's breaking ball needs to show improvement for him to remain the rotation. He has proven to be a prolific zone-pounder, but he isn't nasty enough to consistently miss bats. (His K rate in 2009 was 17.9%.) Ticketed for the generous Florida State League, Alvarez looks like a #4 starter.

Jake Marisnick, of

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Marisnick was drafted on upside. Toronto nabbed the California prepster in the 3rd round last year and signed him for $1 million. Marisnick has an explosive 6-4, 200-pound frame and combination of speed and power. A potential center fielder or right fielder, Marisnick also has a strong arm. His hitting mechanics, however, are questioned, and teams would have been willing to draft him much higher if they thought he had a better chance of hitting. The athletic Marisnick will require several years and thousands of plate appearances in the minors, but the payoff could be very large.

Others: RHPs Danny Farquhar, Josh Roenicke, and Andrew Liebel; LHPs Luis Perez and Tim Collins; SS Justin Jackson; 3B Kevin Ahrens

Impact Talent: C-

Farm System Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect

Carlos Perez, c

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

Perez controls the zone well for a teenager, having compiled more walks than strikeouts as a pro. Besides his batting eye, he also has a solid feel for hitting (.291/.364/.433 in the GCL last season). Behind the plate, he needs to clean up his footwork, blocking, etc., but has a strong arm and the time to develop into a plus defender. He is very young, but Perez shows the ability to be an all-around catcher. He could be in the New York-Penn or the Midwest League this season.

Trade Deadline Thoughts

There were some massive deals at this year's trade deadline. Here's some analysis on those involving prospects.

White Sox get: RHP Jake Peavy

Padres get: LHPs Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, and RHPs Dexter Carter and Adam Russell

I will hate to see Richard and Poreda go. Both are talented lefties who have been developed through the system and were already making an impact in the MLB. Richard, particularly, has been one of my personal faves since he was drafted out of Michigan in 2005. Carter is having a tremendous season as well and is very promising. He has a plus fastball-curveball combo and is striking out 10.9 batters per 9 innings. With all that said, I think this will probably be a good trade for the Sox. Peavy is a proven ace who will go great with Mark Buehrle. He won't be able to pitch for another month because of an injury, but he still will give Chicago a boost in the division race. He's also under control for the next 4 years (although he does have a huge contract). I don't like to see young players go, but getting Peavy without having to give up Gordon Beckham is a no-brainer.

Phillies get: LHP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco

Indians get: RHPs Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, and SS/2B Jason Donald

The Phillies made off like bandits in this deal. Philadelphia was going to have to give up Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, and Domonic Brown or Michael Taylor to get Roy Halladay. Instead, they got a younger, almost-as-good hurler in Lee without having to part with any of those pieces. Knapp throws hard, but is wild and has injury concerns. Carrasco has premium stuff, but is erratic and is getting bombed in Triple-A. Marson needs to hit for some more power to become an everyday regular. Donald needs to find the stroke he had last year again if he wants to reach his ceiling as an offensive-minded utility infielder. All 4 of the players that Cleveland is getting have potential and are pretty solid prospects, but the Phillies got a Cy Young winner and a quality fourth outfielder on the cheap.

Red Sox get: C Victor Martinez

Indians get: RHPs Justin Masterson and Bryan Price, and LHP Nick Hagadone

Again, the young players in this deal are very promising, but they're worth giving up to nab an established star. In this case, the Red Sox are pretty much only lacking a catcher. Getting Martinez gives them a great chance to go deep in the playoffs. He's also young and can bolster their offense in years to come. The Indians didn't really have much of a choice with Martinez and Cliff Lee. They're going nowhere, so they need to restock with some young talent. Masterson could be a starter or a setup man with his power sinker. Hagadone is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he has a mid-90s fastball and a devastating slider. He could be a starter or closer in the future for the Indians. Price, a former Rice Owl, also has a power arm worth taking a shot on.

Mariners get: SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell

Pirates get: C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, RHPs Aaron Pribanic and Brett Lorin, and LHP Nathan Adcock

Wilson is an upgrade over Cedeno for the M's. Snell has already had major league success, although he needs to regain his form. The Pirates grabbed more low-level talent with Pribanic and Lorin, hard-throwing college products. That leaves Clement as the key to the deal. If the former top propect can finally develop into a power-hitting offensive force (whether that's behind the plate or at first base), then Pittsburgh will be very happy. If he languishes in Triple-A or can't stay healthy, the Pirates will regret giving up their starting shortstop and a decent pitcher for this group of players.

Giants get: 2B Freddy Sanchez

Pirates get: RHP Tim Alderson

I'm adamant that Alderson is an elite prospect, but the Giants still traded him away. Pitching is an organizational strength, though, and Sanchez will fill a major void in the middle infield for the wild card contenders. The Giants better hope Madison Bumgarner turns out to be as good as he's supposed to be, or they'll really rue letting Alderson go. He'll be one of the very best talents in Pittsburgh's system.

Giants get: 1B Ryan Garko

Indians get: LHP Scott Barnes

Garko is a solid, heady player who plays hard and will give the Giants a better option at first than Travis Ishikawa. Barnes is good prospect with a feel for pitching who could be ready for the majors by the time the Indians are ready to contend again. Looks like a win-win to me.

Tigers get: LHP Jarrod Washburn

Mariners get: LHPs Luke French and Mauricio Robles

The Tigers made an excellent move here, getting a quality veteran lefty to help them try to wrap up the AL Central. Washburn is having one of the best years of his career and has postseason experience. French is a back-of-the-rotation pitchability lefty, while Robles is a slight 20-year-old who is enjoying a solid year but has a long way to go.

Cubs get: LHPs Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow

Pirates get: RHPs Jose Ascanio and Kevin Hart, and IF Josh Harrison

The Cubs needed another lefty in their bullpen, and Grabow should be serviceable for them in that role. Gorzelanny could be even better (as a starter) if he regains his 2007 form (3.88 ERA in 200+ IP). Ascanio is probably the only that they'll miss. He's had success in the majors this year, both walking and striking out tons of batters. I doubt if Hart will ever be anything, but, then again, I thought the same thing about Randy Wells. Harrison is an undersized infielder who can hit but will need to prove himself at each level going forward.

Reds get: 3B Scott Rolen

Blue Jays get: 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and RHPs Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke

I'm not sure what the Reds are thinking. Rolen is better than Encarnacion, but he is also 8 years older. Cincinnati won't be contenders this year or next, and Rolen will just start declining from there. Toronto, meanwhile, got a pair of promising arms. Stewart (4-1, 1.67 ERA) is having a spectacular year, and could be a quality starter or terrific setup guy. His 93 mph sinking fastball is lights-out. Roenicke is more power than polish, but he could be a decent middle reliever.

Twins get: SS Orlando Cabrera

A's get: SS Tyler Ladendorf
This is a quality trade from Minnesota's side. They sorely needed an infield upgrade, and while Cabrera is on the back end of his career, he'll give them that, plus the experience that will be useful in their playoff push. Ladendorf was an early-round pick last year out of Howard JC. He has interesting tools at short, but couldn't handle his first taste of A-ball (.233/.292/.267). The A's aren't going to make the playoffs, so they as well go for some younger talent.

Marlins get: 1B Nick Johnson

Nationals get: LHP Aaron Thompson

I've always been a big Thompson believer despite a terrible 2008 season; the 2005 1st-rounder could develop into a decent lefty someday. The Marlins did well, though, to add an above-average player for their push for the wild card without giving away any of their core players. When Johnson stays healthy, he hits.

There were some other small trades as well. Check out Baseball America's Trade Central for more.