Saturday, August 1, 2009

Trade Deadline Thoughts

There were some massive deals at this year's trade deadline. Here's some analysis on those involving prospects.

White Sox get: RHP Jake Peavy
Padres get: LHPs Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, and RHPs Dexter Carter and Adam Russell
I will hate to see Richard and Poreda go. Both are talented lefties who have been developed through the system and were already making an impact in the MLB. Richard, particularly, has been one of my personal faves since he was drafted out of Michigan in 2005. Carter is having a tremendous season as well and is very promising. He has a plus fastball-curveball combo and is striking out 10.9 batters per 9 innings. With all that said, I think this will probably be a good trade for the Sox. Peavy is a proven ace who will go great with Mark Buehrle. He won't be able to pitch for another month because of an injury, but he still will give Chicago a boost in the division race. He's also under control for the next 4 years (although he does have a huge contract). I don't like to see young players go, but getting Peavy without having to give up Gordon Beckham is a no-brainer.

Phillies get: LHP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco
Indians get: RHPs Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, and SS/2B Jason Donald
The Phillies made off like bandits in this deal. Philadelphia was going to have to give up Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, and Domonic Brown or Michael Taylor to get Roy Halladay. Instead, they got a younger, almost-as-good hurler in Lee without having to part with any of those pieces. Knapp throws hard, but is wild and has injury concerns. Carrasco has premium stuff, but is erratic and is getting bombed in Triple-A. Marson needs to hit for some more power to become an everyday regular. Donald needs to find the stroke he had last year again if he wants to reach his ceiling as an offensive-minded utility infielder. All 4 of the players that Cleveland is getting have potential and are pretty solid prospects, but the Phillies got a Cy Young winner and a quality fourth outfielder on the cheap.

Red Sox get: C Victor Martinez
Indians get: RHPs Justin Masterson and Bryan Price, and LHP Nick Hagadone
Again, the young players in this deal are very promising, but they're worth giving up to nab an established star. In this case, the Red Sox are pretty much only lacking a catcher. Getting Martinez gives them a great chance to go deep in the playoffs. He's also young and can bolster their offense in years to come. The Indians didn't really have much of a choice with Martinez and Cliff Lee. They're going nowhere, so they need to restock with some young talent. Masterson could be a starter or a setup man with his power sinker. Hagadone is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he has a mid-90s fastball and a devastating slider. He could be a starter or closer in the future for the Indians. Price, a former Rice Owl, also has a power arm worth taking a shot on.

Mariners get: SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell
Pirates get: C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, RHPs Aaron Pribanic and Brett Lorin, and LHP Nathan Adcock
Wilson is an upgrade over Cedeno for the M's. Snell has already had major league success, although he needs to regain his form. The Pirates grabbed more low-level talent with Pribanic and Lorin, hard-throwing college products. That leaves Clement as the key to the deal. If the former top propect can finally develop into a power-hitting offensive force (whether that's behind the plate or at first base), then Pittsburgh will be very happy. If he languishes in Triple-A or can't stay healthy, the Pirates will regret giving up their starting shortstop and a decent pitcher for this group of players.

Giants get: 2B Freddy Sanchez
Pirates get: RHP Tim Alderson
I'm adamant that Alderson is an elite prospect, but the Giants still traded him away. Pitching is an organizational strength, though, and Sanchez will fill a major void in the middle infield for the wild card contenders. The Giants better hope Madison Bumgarner turns out to be as good as he's supposed to be, or they'll really rue letting Alderson go. He'll be one of the very best talents in Pittsburgh's system.

Giants get: 1B Ryan Garko
Indians get: LHP Scott Barnes
Garko is a solid, heady player who plays hard and will give the Giants a better option at first than Travis Ishikawa. Barnes is good prospect with a feel for pitching who could be ready for the majors by the time the Indians are ready to contend again. Looks like a win-win to me.

Tigers get: LHP Jarrod Washburn
Mariners get: LHPs Luke French and Mauricio Robles
The Tigers made an excellent move here, getting a quality veteran lefty to help them try to wrap up the AL Central. Washburn is having one of the best years of his career and has postseason experience. French is a back-of-the-rotation pitchability lefty, while Robles is a slight 20-year-old who is enjoying a solid year but has a long way to go.

Cubs get: LHPs Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow
Pirates get: RHPs Jose Ascanio and Kevin Hart, and IF Josh Harrison
The Cubs needed another lefty in their bullpen, and Grabow should be serviceable for them in that role. Gorzelanny could be even better (as a starter) if he regains his 2007 form (3.88 ERA in 200+ IP). Ascanio is probably the only that they'll miss. He's had success in the majors this year, both walking and striking out tons of batters. I doubt if Hart will ever be anything, but, then again, I thought the same thing about Randy Wells. Harrison is an undersized infielder who can hit but will need to prove himself at each level going forward.

Reds get: 3B Scott Rolen
Blue Jays get: 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and RHPs Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke
I'm not sure what the Reds are thinking. Rolen is better than Encarnacion, but he is also 8 years older. Cincinnati won't be contenders this year or next, and Rolen will just start declining from there. Toronto, meanwhile, got a pair of promising arms. Stewart (4-1, 1.67 ERA) is having a spectacular year, and could be a quality starter or terrific setup guy. His 93 mph sinking fastball is lights-out. Roenicke is more power than polish, but he could be a decent middle reliever.

Twins get: SS Orlando Cabrera
A's get: SS Tyler Ladendorf
This is a quality trade from Minnesota's side. They sorely needed an infield upgrade, and while Cabrera is on the back end of his career, he'll give them that, plus the experience that will be useful in their playoff push. Ladendorf was an early-round pick last year out of Howard JC. He has interesting tools at short, but couldn't handle his first taste of A-ball (.233/.292/.267). The A's aren't going to make the playoffs, so they as well go for some younger talent.

Marlins get: 1B Nick Johnson
Nationals get: LHP Aaron Thompson
I've always been a big Thompson believer despite a terrible 2008 season; the 2005 1st-rounder could develop into a decent lefty someday. The Marlins did well, though, to add an above-average player for their push for the wild card without giving away any of their core players. When Johnson stays healthy, he hits.

There were some other small trades as well. Check out
Baseball America's Trade Central for more.

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