Though they are pretty much a joke at the major league level, I actually like the direction of the Padres' farm system. Starting to recover from years of injury-riddled, low-ceiling draftees, the Friars are replenishing with talented young players. San Diego recently hired former Boston execs Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod to be GM and VP/Assistant GM, respectively. By all accounts those are wise moves. I like the organization's prospects more than most. Though it's a significant undertaking that is several years away from fully paying off, San Diego's rebuilding project will be fun to watch.
Top Prospects
Jaff Decker, of
Age: 19 Level: Low A-Double-A
He's knocked for his bad body and limited projectability (listed at 5-10, 212), but Decker just flat-out hits. Gifted with a discerning eye and lefty stroke geared for doubles and some homers, Decker manhandled the Midwest League to the tune of .299/.442/.514 with 85 BBs in 2009. That kind of success for someone a year removed from high school is unheard in the MWL, and Decker is going to mash his way to the majors. His lack of athleticism is overstated, anyway. I'm driving the Decker bandwagon and fully expecting him to become the next Brian Giles.
James Darnell, 3B
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
Darnell is another under-appreciated prospect; he is closer to former South Carolina teammate Justin Smoak than most think. Darnell has a feel for hitting and raw power, though his power numbers are suppressed because he doesn't achieve much loft. (For what it's worth, he did hit 20 HRs in 2009). The 6-2, 195-pounder has a balanced swing and a masterful control of the zone. Along with his overall strong 2009 campaign, he posted a 15.8 BB%. Darnell has 3rd-base tools, but he is inconsistent defensively and may change positions. He has enough bat, arm, speed, and athleticism to make a fine corner outfielder. While Darnell's bat may be a bit less thunderous than Smoak, his all-around value should make him a strong contributor for the Padres.
Donavan Tate, of
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
Tate received a whopping $6.25 million signing bonus as the 3rd overall draft pick in 2009. A premium athlete who had committed to North Carolina for baseball and football, he has outstanding upside. Tate has the range, actions, and arm to be a special defender in center. At 6-3, 200, he also has raw power and lightning bat speed. Tate needs much more polish offensively, however. He has mechanical kinks to work out and his feel for hitting leaves something to be desired. He's 4 or more years away from the majors and his bat will need improvement to even get him that far. Tate has an Andruw Jones-type ceiling, but he has a long road ahead of him. His strong makeup will aid him in all phases of his development.
Logan Forsythe, 3B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Forsythe, a 2008 supplemental-rounder from Arkansas, has started his career off well and stayed one level ahead of Darnell. Forsythe is an extremely patient hitter with a quick, sound swing. He hit a composite .300/.429/.440 with a 17.1 BB% between High A and Double-A in 2009. Forsythe has moved around a lot defensively but can handle the hot corner ably. He also has great makeup. The primary concern with the 6-1, 206-pounder is his power. Forsythe mustered just a .098 IsoP and 3 home runs in Double-A and his approach lends itself to underwhelming power numbers. He strikes out at a pretty high clip as well. A textbook Padres prospect, Forsythe projects as a steady #2 hitter, but it's crucial that he boosts his power production.
Simon Castro, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
Castro's 2009 campaign was everything San Diego was looking for and more. Regarded as an erratic, live-armed lottery ticket previously, Castro parlayed his raw ability into a 2.80 FIP and 27.4 K%. The force behind his great gains was improved control, as Castro posted a 6.4 BB% for Low A Fort Wayne. Castro works with a 92-93 mph fastball that touches the mid-90s with life. His hard breaking ball is a quality secondary offering. Castro's durable 6-5 build suits a starting role well, but his changeup needs much more work to stick in that role. He could stand to use his offspeed pitches more. Castro needs to maintain his progress, consistency, and smooth out some rough edges, but his upside is a #2 starter.
Keyvius Sampson, rhp
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
Sampson's athletic frame and power arm attracted lots of attention in '09 and he wound up going in the 4th round of the draft. The Ocala, Florida, native garnered an above-slot signing bonus of $600,000. Sampson has touched mid-90s and sits in the low-90s. He has a power breaking ball and decent control at present. The 6-0, 185-pounder needs to refine his changeup and command (as most prep products do). For better or for worse, his package draws Edwin Jackson comparisons. Having overcome a tragic high school career, Sampson will get his pro career ramped up in 2010, presumably in Low A.
Wynn Pelzer, rhp
Age: 23 Level: High A
I have to fight my stubbornness to rank Pelzer this high. He has always seemed to me to be inconsistent, not as good as the scouting reports suggest, and a future reliever. Still, his upside is becoming too great to ignore and he deserves a slot here. Pelzer's explosive low-90s fastball has been clocked at 97 mph. He spins a good, hard slider and has employed both a splitter and a changeup as his third pitch. The 6-1, 205-pounder posted a 3.30 FIP in 150 IP in 2009. He needs to improve his control (9.3 BB%), but misses bats (23.1 K%) and gets ground balls. Pelzer, a 2007 9th-rounder from South Carolina, will turn 24 in June, so San Diego could be tempted to fast-track him to the major league bullpen. His max-effort windup and difficulty to fine-tune a third pitch also point to the 'pen. He'll start the season in the Double-A rotation and merits close attention.
Aaron Poreda, lhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Poreda was a 2007 1st-round pick and former top prospect for the White Sox. He was a major chip in the Jake Peavy trading deadline deal last year. The 6-6 lefty flashes huge upside but has struggled with command and projects as a power reliever in the Matt Thornton mold. Poreda's fastball parks in the low- to mid-90s and has touched triple digits. He has solid control of the pitch. The San Francisco product has a decent slider and a below-average changeup. He has also recently incorporated a 2-seamer. I attribute some of Poreda's detoriorating stuff and command woes to his unstable role (he pitched in the rotation, bullpen, and for 5 teams in 2009), but he won't be a frontline starter by any means. I'm not a fan of Poreda's delivery, but I do think he'll rebound and be an asset in a bullpen role.
Everett Williams, of
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
A 2009 2nd-rounder from a Texas high school, Williams is touted for his athleticism and ability to hit. I'm willing to wait for some pro data before heaping praise on him. Williams packs bat speed and strength in his lefty stroke. He's also an above-average runner with decent defensive skills. Williams needs more repetitions, though; he has shown some struggles to hit breaking balls and his plate discipline is a question mark. His compact (5-10, 205) frame is unorthodox for his profile. Williams could man a corner spot in deference to Donavan Tate if they suit up at the same level this year.
Cory Luebke, lhp
Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB
Luebke took a step forward this past season after struggling in 2008. The 2007 draftee reached Double-A and posted a 2.98 FIP. Luebke isn't overpowering, but can hump it up to 94 mph with a nice slider to back it up. The Ohio State product generally throws strikes. On the downside, I don't like Luebke's delivery and arm action. His changeup also needs more separation from his fastball. Luebke was less effective after his promotion from High A. At 6-4, 215, he has a prototypical pitcher's frame and still projects as a #3 or #4 starter. Soon to be 25, Luebke could reach the big leagues by the end of the year.
Others: SSs Lance Zawadzki and Drew Cumberland; 2B Eric Sogard; 3B Edinson Rincon; OF Blake Tekotte
Impact Talent: C+
Farm System Depth: B
2010 Breakout Prospect
Jerry Sullivan, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A
Sullivan has a legitimate shot to break into San Diego's top 10 prospects next year. A 3rd-round pick in 2009 who was a stalwart at Oral Roberts for 3 seasons, Sullivan offers a combination of current production and future projection. The 6-4, 220-pounder has a plus fastball in the low-90s. His secondary offerings (slider, changeup) are inconsistent, but they flash the potential to be average or better. Sullivan uncharacteristically racked up walks in his pro debut, but look for him to settle in as a dependable #3 starter. He'll raise his profile with a strong campaign in 2010.
