The reigning #1 system in baseball, the Rangers' youth movement is underway. They've incorporated youngsters like Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and Tommy Hunter into the fold, and their young talent should allow them to compete with anyone in the future.
Top Prospects
Justin Smoak, 1B
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Smoak, a 2008 1st-rounder, is the best first-base prospect in the minor leagues. The 6-4, 220-pounder has excellent power and a good idea at the plate. He put up a .328/.449/.481 line in Double-A in 2009 before stumbling in Triple-A. (His wOBA dropped from .427 to .336, and his K rate rose from 15.4% to 18.9%.) Much of that can be attributed to injury, however. He has strong plate discipline and line-drive rates, and I expect him to be an outstanding run producer in the big leagues. Smoak, who hails from the same South Carolina high school as Orioles stud-in-the-making Matt Wieters, is an above-average defensive first baseman, but his speed and athleticism are very limited. He needs some more at-bats in the minors, but Smoak has the potential to bounce back and be a switch-hitting Justin Morneau-type.
Neftali Feliz, rhp
Age: 21 Level: MLB
A part of the lopsided Mark Teixeira trade with the Braves in 2007, Feliz has one of the best pure arms on the planet. He generates consistent low- to mid-90s velocity from an easy motion, and he sometimes touches triple digits. His breaking ball and changeup need more consistency, but they are promising. Feliz has posted a 28.8 K% in his career, along with a 10.5 BB%. He needs to polish his command and put the finishing touches on his secondary stuff. The 6-3, 180-pounder also has never worked a 130+ IP campaign. He reached the majors and was unhittable in 30 relief innings last season, showing that he could be a dominating closer in short order, but Feliz has even greater upside at the front of the rotation. Keying in on his #1 stuff, the Rangers will continue to develop him in that role.
Martin Perez, lhp
Age: 18 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
His stuff is above-average, but Perez is also lauded for how polished he is for his age. The 6-0 Venezuelan posted a 2.46 FIP and 26.9 K% in Low A in 2009. He also induced a healthy amount of ground balls, and the teenager received a Double-A cameo at the end of the year. Perez works off a low-90s fastball that tops out at 95 mph. He has greatly improved the quality of his changeup, and he owns a late-breaking curveball. The primary drawback is that Perez is exceedingly young and his durability has yet to be tested. (His delivery, however, looks easy and clean.) His command naturally isn't a finished product. Perez will throw a full season in Double-A in 2010 and try to live up to his Johan Santana comparisons. He is one of the finest lefty prospects in the game and rounds out Texas's amazing prospect trifecta.
Tanner Scheppers, rhp
Age: 23 Level: none-Double-A
Scheppers is an extremely unique prospect. The erstwhile shortstop shifted to the mound at Fresno State to take advantage of his electric arm, then had a severe shoulder injury that caused him to miss the Bulldogs' unbelievable run to the College World Series title in 2008. Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates that year, but got $1.25 million from Texas in 2009. The 6-4, 200-pounder's heater ranges anywhere from the low-90s to 99 mph. His curveball is devastating, though inconsistent. The downside is Scheppers is wild and has no changeup to speak of. His delivery and injury history also point him toward the bullpen. He figures to go straight to Double-A in 2010. My best conjecture is that he'll be a late-inning reliever.
Danny Gutierrez, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Gutierrez hasn't seized his potential yet due to some injuries and run-ins with the law. The Royals, fed up with his antics, essentially gave up the 6-1 righty in September. Gutierrez showed in the Arizona Fall League, though, that he has excellent upside. The California native throws a 91-95 mph fastball and a nasty, nose-to-toes curveball. He needs a better changeup to stay in the rotation. Gutierrez is about a year away from the MLB. If he gets his act together, he'll be a key cog in the Rangers' pitching staff.
Robbie Ross, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Ross was handled with kid gloves last year. The 20-year-old pitched 74 innings in the Northwest League after being taken in the supplemental round out of high school. Ross handled his competition easily, putting up a 3.12 FIP, 3.2 GO/AO, 24.1 K%, and 5.4 BB%. Though he is only 5-11, Ross has a quality arsenal. The Kentucky native throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, and a changeup. Some are concerned with his small stature, and his seconary pitches are works in progress. Ready for Low A, Ross offers mid-rotation potential.
Max Ramirez, c/1B
Age: 25 Level: MLB
The 2009 season was a lost year for Ramirez; he parlayed a poor '08 MLB debut into a .234/.323/.336 showing over 320 PAs in Triple-A. Ramirez is still capable of being a solid big leaguer, though. The Venezuela native is a gifted, patient righthanded hitter who can pepper the gaps. He has enough power to potentially hit 15-20 home runs a season. He does strike out a fair amount (21.2% MiLB career). Ramirez masquerades as a catcher, but he lacks athleticism and is not a strong receiver. He is very slow. Ramirez needs to shake off last season and regain his stroke in order to hit enough to be an average big league 1B.
Robbie Erlin, lhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
If not for his small build (5-11, 170), Erlin might have been in 1st-round consideration. The California native ended up going in the 3rd round. Erlin throws a solid 89-91 mph fastball and a good curveball. His changeup shows positive signs, but needs work. He pounds the zone and has advanced command for a high school product. His delivery is sound, and he is regarded as having excellent makeup. Erlin could twirl in the Low A South Atlantic League in 2010, and he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
Jurickson Profar, ss
Age: 16 Level: none-Rookie
Profar received a $1.55 million signing bonus coming out of Curacao last summer. The Rangers liken him to Elvis Andrus in some ways. Defensively, Profar's good hands and plus arm stand out (he touches the low-90s off the mound). The switch-hitter has some feel for hitting for contact. His speed is average. Profar's savvy and instincts are considered advanced for his age. He is thin (around 5-11, 165) and doesn't have overwhelming offensive tools. Profar does not turn 17 for another two weeks, and he is far away from the majors. A better gauge of his potential will come after he plays the 2010 slate stateside.
Kasey Kiker, lhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
A 2006 1st-rounder, Kiker has lost a lot of his shine. He still shows enough upside to be interesting, though. Kiker has a good fastball in the low-90s and likes to challenge batters. His 80 mph changeup grades out as his top secondary offering, ahead of his inconsistent breaking ball. He hands out far too many free passes, though. (Kiker's walk rate was 11.8% in 2009.) He is primarily a flyball pitcher and Kiker might eventually head to the bullpen. At just 5-10, 170, his stature does nothing to assuage that concern. Kiker is a lefty with stuff that misses bats, but I don't think he'll be a true difference-maker. He'll spend 2010 in Triple-A.
Others: RHPs Wilfredo Boscan, Guillermo Moscoso, Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda, and Michael Main
Impact Talent: A+
Farm System Depth: B-
2010 Breakout Prospects
Braden Tullis, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-High A
Tullis, the Rangers' 8th-round pick from 2009, hails from Idaho and attended Skagit Valley CC in Washington. He is one of my favorite sleepers. Tullis's 88-91 mph fastball has sink, and his changeup and slider are both decent with room for improvement. The 6-2, 200-pounder is very athletic. He throws strikes and works down in the zone. He had a strong pro debut, with a 2.39 FIP, 21.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 2.6 GO/AO. Tullis could jump onto the radar with a steady performance in A-ball in 2010.
Joe Wieland, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A
Wieland was a 2008 4th-rounder from a Nevada high school. I really liked the pick at the time (he controls a solid 3-pitch mix), but Wieland fell off the map after his 2009 season in Low A. He surrendered 102 hits in 83 IP and had a 5.30 ERA. Not much hope, right? Wrong. Wieland was hurt by a .371 BABIP and a 52.8 LOB%. His 3.59 FIP looks dramatically better than his ERA. The 6-3, 175-pounder didn't light it up in his first full season, but it's way too early to toss him on the prospect scrap heap. Although Wieland figures to be shipped to the unforgiving Cal League in 2010, I'm anticipating a solid campaign.
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