State of the System: Baltimore Orioles

Quick Look
All signs are pointing in the right direction for the O's, despite their rugged division. Their ever-growing supply of young talent--from Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters; to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta--is well-documented. It will be fascinating to watch if they can ride their young stars to AL East contention a la the 2008 Rays. Check out Camden Crazies and OriolesProspects.com for more coverage of the O's.

Top Prospects

Brian Matusz, lhp

Age: 22 Level: MLB

Matusz is arguably the top lefty pitching prospect in the game. He combines plus stuff (low-90s fastball and 3 advanced offspeed offerings) with savvy and command beyond his years. Matusz also has a solid delivery, track record, and good makeup. The only quibble with Matusz is that he doesn't establish or work off his fastball enough. He flashed his upside with a promising September callup, though, and will be at the forefront of Baltimore's rotation for years to come.

Josh Bell, 3B

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Bell was the main return in this year's George Sherrill deal with the Dodgers, a boon for the O's. He hit .297/.378/.518 with 20 HRs and 35 2Bs during a breakout season Double-A this year, showcasing outstanding raw power and an improved feel for hitting (although his production comes almost exclusively from the left side). Bell's most important area of progress, however, was on defense. Despite a big frame, he showed that he works hard and has a good chance to play third, boosting his stock.

Zach Britton, lhp

Age: 21 Level: High-A-Double-A

The 6-2 lefty quietly continues to ascend the ladder. In 2009, despite some command struggles, Britton lowered his ERA (2.70 ERA) and raised his K/9 (8.4) for the third straight year. Roughly two years away from the majors, Britton features a heavy sinker, a 4-seam fastball, slider, and changeup, the last of which has improved immensely. I like Britton's groundball tendencies (3.38 GO/AO in 2009). He projects as a #3 starter.

Jake Arrieta

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Arrieta signed a slot-busting $1.1 bonus as a 5th-rounder in 2007 and proceeded to shine in High A in 2008. He backed up some in Triple-A this year, however, as his lack of command was exposed in the high minors. Arrieta will need to hone that aspect of his game to become a frontline starter (not to mention improving his below-average changeup), but his fastball (which reaches 96 mph) and tight slider will play in the bullpen at the very least. If he reaches his ceiling, he's a #2 starter.

Brandon Snyder, 1B

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Snyder has done a nice resurrection job on his career after a brutal 2006 campaign. The 2005 1st-rounder has a good, strong swing and is improving every year, showing some justification for his elevated draft status. This year, he hit .289/.362/.460 over 530 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A. Snyder doesn't have great BB-K rates and his career high in homers is 13, so it's unclear whether he can become an above-average player since he's relegated to an offensively-demanding position like first base. He is winning over more and more proponents each year, though.

Matt Hobgood, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Hobgood went 5th overall in the 2009 draft, perhaps a reach considering he was ranked about 5th just among prep pitchers. The California native is still a high-upside prospect, though. He dials his fastball up to 94-95 at times, drops in a devastating curve with two-plane break, and has a stocky frame that suggests durability will be no problem. The flip side is that he lacks a lot of projection. He also needs to hone a changeup. Like any high school arm, Hobgood will need a couple years of seasoning, but his ceiling ranks among the highest in Baltimore's organization.

Brandon Erbe, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Prospect fatigue has set in with Erbe, but it's easy to forget that he's still just 21 years old. Always young for his level, Erbe was hampered with shoulder issues this year (a result of his delivery, maybe?), limiting him to 73 IP in Double-A. While he may not stay in the rotation because of troublesome command, the slender Baltimore native has closer potential. His electric fastball touches 96 and his slider is a plus pitch at times, featuring hard late break. A full, steady 2010 season would be a step in the right direction for Erbe.

Ryan Berry, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-High A

Tabbed by the Orioles in the 8th round this year, I have many a time touted Berry as an excellent value pick. He could have gone in the supplemental-round range if there weren't concerns about the health of his shoulder. When healthy, Berry aggressively pounds the zone with an average fastball, plus knucklecurve, changeup, and occasional slider. He's pretty advanced, and he could rise swiftly through Baltimore's system if he returns to health (not a given considering the track record of Rice hurlers).

Mychal Givens, rhp/ss

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Givens, a high-profile 2009 draftee, signed for $800,000 in the second round. He has plenty of tools as a position player, but he's raw, and may be a better bet on the mound. Givens reaches 97 mph from a near-sidearm slot, but is probably destined for the bullpen. The Tampa native has a lot of upside, but he also has his share of flaws.

Randy Henry, rhp

Age: 20 Level: none-High A

Henry has gotten little exposure in his career, having been limited by Tommy John surgery and a low-profile college (South Mountain CC). The O's aren't what sure what they have with their 4th pick in this year's draft, but they know he has touched the mid-90s to go along with a changeup and a curveball. It will be interesting to monitor him in 2010.

Others: RHPs Kam Mickolio, Luis Lebron, Bobby Bundy, and Brett Jacobson; LHPs Cameron Coffey and Ashur Tolliver; 3B Brandon Waring; C Caleb Joseph; OFs Ronnie Welty and Matt Angle

Impact Talent: B

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Jake Cowan, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A

Cowan looks poised to put his name in the conversation of top Orioles pitching prospects. He throws a low-90s fastball with good sinking action, tosses a low-80s slider, spins a soft 12-6 curve that could be plus in the future, and mixes in a changeup. A 2009 draftee from San Jacinto JC, Cowan is projectable and will progress quickly.

Feliz Electric In Debut

Rangers RHP Neftali Feliz, perhaps the minors' hardest thrower and one of the best pitching prospects in the game, was just promoted to Texas. He didn't waste any time making a favorable first impression. Feliz worked 2 scoreless innings of relief (in a 1-0 game, no less), struck out 4, and hit triple digits on the radar gun against the A's tonight. Nothing like a flawless debut to raise expectations. While I regard first baseman Justin Smoak as the organization's top prospect, Feliz has sky-high potential. If he doesn't wind up as a top-of-the-rotation starter, he could easily take his high-octane stuff to the bullpen permanently and become an excellent closer.

In other news, Orioles LHP Brian Matusz has also been called up to the majors. He doesn't have experience above Double-A, but Matusz shouldn't be too overmatched; he's extremely polished. I like him more than fellow O's hurler Chris Tillman, who was also recently promoted to Baltimore. It isn't even September yet, but tons of prospects have been getting the call. Along with those guys, Astros RHP Bud Norris, Padres RHP Mat Latos, Red Sox OF Josh Reddick, and more are now up in the MLB.

Neftali Feliz

*Photo courtesy of www.dallasnews.com

Orioles In Good Shape for the Future

Ever since their last postseason appearance in 1997, the Orioles have been going downhill. Bad trades, terrible drafting, and poor front offices have undermined the organization for over a decade. Baltimore fans have lots to look forward to, though.

First off, the O's have a great outfield. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold (who are all in their mid-20s and just scratching the surface of their potential) each sport OPS's above .800. All of them have 30 HR power and athleticism as well.

Then, of course, you've got Matt Wieters behind the plate. When he signed for $6 million after being drafted 5th overall in 2007, it signaled a change in the direction of the franchise. No longer were they going to skimp on talent, they were going to pay top-dollar for the top prospects. (Contrast that to the Pirates, who passed on Wieters and Scott Boras to take the far-inferior Daniel Moskos.) Most regard Wieters as the top prospect in baseball, and he will partially be able to turn around the team by himself. In time, he'll be a Joe Mauer with power. Or like Mark Teixeira--as a catcher.

The best part for the Orioles, though, is that they have bushels of talent (particularly on the mound) yet to reach the majors. Last year's 1st-rounder, LHP Brian Matusz, pitched in the Futures Game and is having a brilliant year. He's posted a 2.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9 between High A and Double-A. He could pitch off his low-90s fastball more, but Matusz is a polished pitcher with three quality secondary offerings and plus control. The San Diego product is arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, and he should be ready for The Show by next year.

Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, both at Triple-A, make it a truly fearsome top 3 for Baltimore. Tillman, a prototypical projectable righty with a plus fastball and plus curve, has dominated at every stop in the minors. Despite being just 21, the '06 1st-rounder has a 2.42 ERA and an impressive 95-22 K-BB ratio. Arrieta garnered an above-slot bonus as a 5th-rounder from TCU two years ago. The durable righthander, who has posted a 3.22 ERA and 108 Ks in 101 IPs, is also a potential ace. He attacks batters with a power slider and a fastball that touches 97 mph. If his secondary offerings don't come around or command woes slow him, Arrieta could be a late-inning reliever. Tillman and Arrieta have similar issues that they need to fine-tune, but they have excellent upside.

Zach Britton, a lefthander pitching in the High A Carolina League, is progressing nicely as well. The 21-year-old has a good sinker which induces ground balls. Britton rounds out his repertoire with a 4-seamer, slider, and changeup. He hasn't gotten a lot of hype yet, but I like him as a mid-rotation starter.

Brad Bergesen, who is already in the majors, doesn't have the ceiling of those guys, but he does manage to retire batters consistently. The 23-year-old righthander relies on a deceptive motion and a solid sinker/slider combo. After putting up a 3.10 ERA in 165 IP in 2008, Bergesen has recorded a 3.51 ERA in 110 MLB IP. He will be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in the long-term.

RHPs David Hernandez and Jason Berken are in the same boat. They're never going to top a rotation, but they are still quality options (and both have reached the majors already). I like Hernandez much more than others do. His fastball is about 91-92 and his slider is vicious. He performs wherever he goes, too: 2.68 ERA with 10.6 K/9 in 2008, 3.23 ERA with 12.2 K/9 this year in the minors, and sub-4.00 ERA so far in the majors. His susceptibility to homers might make him a reliever, but I still believe Hernandez is a useful hurler. Berken, meanwhile, could be a #5 starter. The former Clemson Tiger lacks premium stuff, but has gotten the job done in the minors.

The Birds also nabbed some intriguing arms this year in the draft. They reached at #5 for prep righty Matt Hobgood, but he is still a big-time talent. Along with a durable build and good makeup, he is armed with a fastball that scrapes 95 mph and a swing-and-miss curveball. A couple of refinements could make him an elite prospect. RHPs Randy Henry (4th round) and Jake Cowan (10) and LHP Ashur Tolliver (5) also have power arms. Rice RHP Ryan Berry (8) will be a steal if the Orioles get him signed.

Baltimore's bounty of arms doesn't stop there. Brandon Erbe is still only 21 and has upside galore. LHP Troy Patton is rebounding nicely from shoulder surgery. If Kam Mickolio and Luis Lebron can harness their right arm, he'll make an impact in the bullpen. Bobby Bundy is further down in the system, but he is a good prospect.

Offensively, the Orioles' brightest prospect is Brandon Snyder. He has moved his way down the defensive spectrum since getting picked 14th overall in 2005, but he has also hit his way to Triple-A this year. Most scouts like his swing, and he could be an average regular. C Caleb Joseph (.328/.362/.490 in High A), OF Ronnie Welty (.303/.389/.424 in Low A), and others also offer promise.

The AL East is the best division in baseball, and the Orioles are in a big hole to begin with. Nonetheless, they are moving in the right direction. The East is about to get even more rugged real soon.

Back To Prospects

Now that the college season is over, I have to shift my attention back to prospects. There are lots of interesting happenings across the MiLB landscape. Here are some of the most notable:

• The Futures Game rosters were recently released, and, as usual, many of tomorrow's stars will be participating. I'm most looking forward to seeing 3B Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), C Tyler Flowers (White Sox), 3B Brett Wallace (Cardinals), RHP Junichi Tazawa (Red Sox), 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs), OF Jason Heyward (Braves), OF Desmond Jennings (Rays), OF Mike Stanton (Marlins), LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants), RHP Casey Kelly (Red Sox), 2B Brett Lawrie (Brewers), C Carlos Santana (Indians), RHP J.C. Sulbaran (Reds), and LHP Trevor Reckling (Angels). There are definitely many names to be watching for. The game is July 12 in St. Louis.
• Jesus Montero's stock seems to be rising with every swing of the bat. The 19-year-old Yankee catcher has already risen to Double-A, and while his defense leaves something to be desired (and may require a position change), his offensive potential is becoming harder and harder to doubt. Montero is hitting .346 with 5 HRs and just 7 Ks in 22 games for Trenton after raking at a .356/.406/.583 clip for Tampa. He may move off of the position in the majors, but for now Montero is in the same class as Buster Posey and Carlos Santana as the best catching prospects in the game.
• Dodgers SS Dee Gordon (Tom's son) is also having a great 2009, his first full pro season. Gordon was a little-known 4th-rounder last year, as he didn't play baseball at Seminole CC last spring because of a grade mixup. He has knocked off the rust in Low A, though, batting .313 with 42 stolen bases. Gordon, a lefty batter, projects as an athletic, top-of-the-order speedster. He has blazing speed and a line-drive bat, as well as good actions at short. I'm leery of his super-low power numbers (.092 IsoP), inconsistencies at shortstop (25 errors), and all-around unrefined game. He's having a good year, but I'm not quite ready to jump on the Dee Gordon bandwagon.
• Michael Saunders is putting an end to the debate over who Seattle's top prospect is. While challenger Greg Halman has racked up 116 strikeouts and a sub-.700 OPS in 68 games, Saunders has returned from an early-season injury to bat .303/.375/.520 in Triple-A. The 22-year-old Canadian is showing glimpses of his all-around potential, with that .895 OPS, 10 HRs, 5 stolen bases, and above-average defense. Saunders (whom I have a foul ball from) is making all his scouting reports look good, and he could be a top-25 prospect at the end of the year.
• Does Scott Boras have more shenanigans up his sleeve to drive up Stephen Strasburg's leverage?
• Orioles LHP Brian Matusz is living up to his pre-draft billing as an advanced college hurler. The 4th overall pick in 2008 out of San Diego, Matusz began the year by posting a 2.16 ERA for High A Frederick. After a promotion, he started willing Eastern League hitters into submission, going 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA in his first 18 Double-A innings. Matusz, who has three outstanding secondary offerings (and good command) to back up his firm fastball, has a composite 1.80 ERA this year in 85 innings. He has punched out 96, and opponents are hitting .210 off him. He is perhaps one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Matusz's domination adds to an impressive next wave for the Orioles; they have Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, and many more promising prospects flying through their system.
• More prospects who are laying waste to their leagues and making strides are Padres 3B Logan Forsythe (.330/.476/.506), Phillies OF Michael Taylor (.345/.407/.595 with 15 HRs--will he ever stop mashing?), Reds OF Todd Frazier (.318 with a whopping 31 doubles), Diamondbacks RHP Jarrod Parker (2.36 ERA and 1.74 groundball-flyball ratio), Bumgarner (1.63 ERA, .211 OBA), Giants RHP Tim Alderson (2.97 ERA and only 12 BBs allowed all year), Indians 1B Jordan Brown (.883 OPS), Padres RHP Mat Latos (7-1, 1.28 ERA), Indians 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (.865 OPS), and Royals LHP Mike Montgomery (1.93 ERA).
• Some of the prospects who aren't enjoying the '09 campaign are Marlins C Kyle Skipworth (.201/.259/.328 with 14-71 BB-K ratio), Pirates 2B Shelby Ford (.428 OPS), Brewers RHP Jeremy Jeffress (55 BB in 60 IP, demotion, suspension), Indians RHP Trey Haley (21-31 K-BB), Rangers OF Engel Beltre (.217/.268/.302), Orioles OF Xavier Avery (.670 OPS), Blue Jays C J.P. Arencibia (.236/.291/.417), Marlins 3B Matt Dominguez (.693 OPS), Padres 2B Matt Antonelli (sub-.220 AVG and sub-.700 OPS for second year in a row), and Astros OF Jay Austin (.675 OPS, 12 CS).
• Check out this crazy box score from a June 28 Cal League game.

Michael Saunders

*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com