Showing posts with label Jesus Montero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jesus Montero. Show all posts

Thursday, December 10, 2009

State of the System: New York Yankees

Quick Look
The Yankees are in good shape, with a loaded (if pricy) MLB roster, a deep farm system, and a willingness to spend money to procure amateur talent. While their minor league talent tilts noticeably toward the pitching side, the Yankees have prospects at many positions, including catcher. I'm fine with this week's Curtis Granderson trade from New York's angle; Austin Jackson, in particular, will be no better than a solid regular (although Detroit is the real winner of the deal).

Top Prospects
Jesus Montero, c
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Hailed for his plus-plus raw power coming out of Venezuela in 2006, Montero has turned into one of the top hitting prospects in the game. He hit .337/.389/.562 between High A and Double-A this season, and his vicious cut, leverage, and feel for hitting make him a threat at all times. Montero is the rare young hitter who has produced for average and power at advanced levels, though he has room for improvement with regard to plate discipline. The drawback is that's all that he is: a hitter. Montero's big body, slow actions, and rough hands make him a defensive liability (his pop times are extremely high), and it'll be a bonus if he can simply suffice at any position. With his insane hitting skills, not to mention a certain All-Star entrenched at first base in the Bronx, Montero could be a DH for years to come. It is conceivable that he could become a superstar entirely because of his bat.

Slade Heathcott, of
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Heathcott was New York's top draft pick this year. While a bit volatile, the 19-year-old Texan has all five tools. At the plate, the lefty has bat speed and power potential. He is also a plus runner and wields a strong arm. Heathcott was hampered by a torn ACL and a jammed shoulder during his senior year. An even more pressing issue is his makeup and character, which turned off some teams on draft day. Heathcott figures to play his first full season at Low A Charleston, where the 6-1, 190-pounder will look to key in on his outstanding raw ability.

Zach McAllister, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
McAllister is underrated, mainly because his ceiling isn't extremely high. The 6-6, 230-pounder could be a solid #4, though, and he posted ERAs of 2.09 and 2.23 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. McAllister consistently throws strikes with a high-80s sinker and a 4-seamer that hits 93 mph. His breaking ball and changeup are usable pitches. He competes and keeps the ball in the ballpark. Despite missing time this year with a sore shoulder, he should be a workhorse. McAllister is not overpowering, however, and his stuff and ability to miss bats are not good enough to be a frontline starter. McAllister is nearly ready for the majors.

Arodys Vizcaino, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Vizcaino has arguably the best pure arm in the system. New York signed the Dominican righty for $800,000 in 2007, and he's spent the last 2 seasons stateside. Vizcaino's heater sits at 90-94 mph and touches 96. Though his 6-foot frame doesn't lend itself to projectability, his clean, loose delivery makes it easy to envision him throwing even harder someday. Vizcaino also throws a biting curveball with plus potential, and that duo was the main force behind his 29.1 K% this season. Vizcaino shows decent strike-throwing ability, but, like most young arms, he's ironing out his control and command. His changeup will also need to improve for him to stay in the rotation. He has the electric arm to become a rotation-topper, and Vizcaino will spend the next few years in full-season ball looking to put all the raw pieces together.

Manny Banuelos, lhp
Age: 18 Level: Low A-High A
Banuelos showed poise beyond his years in Low A this year. Facing much older competition on a regular basis, the 5-10 native of Mexico put up a 2.67 ERA with a healthy K-BB ratio. More importantly, he flashed 3 quality pitches. His fastball sits at 88-92 mph and his changeup and curveball both flash potential, making Banuelos a less electric version of Rangers prospect Martin Perez. His diminutive stature isn't optimal, but it doesn't seem to hold him back. Banuelos will move to the Florida State League in 2010.

Austin Romine, c
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
Many believe Jesus Montero will develop into a bashing, middle-of-the-order presence but move off the catcher position. The Yankees are hopeful that Romine will give them both a run producer and a strong defender behind the plate. Romine, the brother of Angels farmhand Andrew, has more well-rounded tools than Montero. The 2007 2nd-rounder has a plus arm and is making strides defensively, though his receiving and footwork are inconsistent. His strong 6-2, 210-pound frame will help him withstand the rigors of a full season behind the dish. Offensively, Romine has average to above-average raw power. He has improved his contact ability as well, and maintains a respectable K rate, though it spiked in 2009. My biggest concern with Romine is his 6.0 career BB%. He figures to be a steady hitter, but he will be hard-pressed to add much value without upgrading his plate judgment. I'm excited to get some Double-A data on him in 2010.

J.R. Murphy, c
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Murphy blistered his high school competition to rise toward the top of this year's deep prep catching class. The Yankees spent a 2nd-round pick on the Florida native, seizing the opportunity to add an offense-first catcher to the organization's stockpile of backstops. Murphy has a quick swing and covers the plate well. He projects to hit for a good average and possibly average power. He is athletic and possesses the tools to remain behind the plate. Murphy's arm and receiving skills are solid, though he needs more refinement defensively. He's a bit undersized, listed at 5-10, 170. Murphy will likely head to the South Atlantic League for his first full pro season.

Mark Melancon, rhp
Age: 24 Level: MLB
The Yankees drafted Melancon in 2006 in hopes of rushing him to the big league bullpen, but the former Arizona closer had Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter. He recovered fine, and the 6-2, 215-pounder has reached the MLB. Melancon pitches from 91-94 mph and has a plus downer curveball. He has a competitive mentality and pounds the strike zone. Though he has some rough edges to smooth out (I'm not a fan of his delivery, and he could become more consistent overall), Melancon should be a setup man at the very least. It might be a stretch, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that Melancon will succeed Mariano Rivera as New York's closer.

D.J. Mitchell, rhp
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
Mitchell sinker-balled his way to a 2.63 ERA this season, moving up prospect lists in the process. He relied on a plus sinker in the 89-91 mph range to induce nearly 3 groundouts per flyout. The wiry, athletic 6-footer, a 2008 draftee, also has a decent slider, curveball, and changeup. Few believe Mitchell's offspeed pitches are sharp enough to avoid an eventual move to the bullpen, though. The Clemson product's K-BB rate decreased after a promotion from Low A to High A this year, a trend that likely will continue as he moves up the ladder. He had a breakthrough year, but mostly got by A-ball hitters with one excellent pitch. Mitchell could be ready for the Bronx by 2011, though in what capacity is uncertain.

Jairo Heredia, rhp
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
After compiling a strong 2008 season in Low A, Heredia missed much of the '09 campaign. He returned in time to log 38 late-season innings. The 6-1 Dominican Republic native has a solid knowledge of his craft and usually excels at finding the zone. Heredia's fastball sits at 90-92 mph. Scouts differ on which of his secondary pitches--a curveball and a changeup--is more effective. He has good feel for his both of his offspeed pitches. If he's fully healthy in 2010, Heredia could reach Double-A.

Others: RHPs Ivan Nova; SS Corban Joseph; LHP Jeremy Bleich; Cs Gary Sanchez and Francisco Cervelli
Impact Talent: B
Farm System Depth: B+

2010 Breakout Prospect
Brett Gerritse, rhp
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
His delivery is not exemplary, but the 6-4 Gerritse is a sleeper. The 2009 12th-round pick out of a California high school has an 11-5 curveball that flashes plus and a changeup with some late movement resembling that of a splitter. His fastball sits at 90-91 mph, but is straight. I'm interested to see what Gerritse can do in a professional rotation during the upcoming season.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Montero Out For the Year

Yankees catching prospect Jesus Montero, the organization's #1 prospect, will miss the next 4-6 weeks with a fractured finger. With the MiLB season ending in about a month, that means the 6-4 Venezuelan will be done for the remainder. Montero had been enjoying an incredible season up to this point. After terrorizing the Florida State League (.356/.406/.583) for a couple months, he was moved up to Double-A Trenton--a big jump for a 19-year-old. Montero handled the promotion with ease, however, hitting .317 with 9 homers and posting a solid 14-21 BB-K ratio in 44 games.
While it seems pretty bleak, this shouldn't be too bad for the Yankees. Montero will miss a sizable chunk of time, but he is already well ahead of the curve developmentally, and he should be healthy in time for an assignment to the Arizona Fall League or some other winter league. When he returns, Montero will still be a fearsome hitter and one of the top prospects in baseball.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Back To Prospects

Now that the college season is over, I have to shift my attention back to prospects. There are lots of interesting happenings across the MiLB landscape. Here are some of the most notable:
  • The Futures Game rosters were recently released, and, as usual, many of tomorrow's stars will be participating. I'm most looking forward to seeing 3B Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), C Tyler Flowers (White Sox), 3B Brett Wallace (Cardinals), RHP Junichi Tazawa (Red Sox), 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs), OF Jason Heyward (Braves), OF Desmond Jennings (Rays), OF Mike Stanton (Marlins), LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants), RHP Casey Kelly (Red Sox), 2B Brett Lawrie (Brewers), C Carlos Santana (Indians), RHP J.C. Sulbaran (Reds), and LHP Trevor Reckling (Angels). There are definitely many names to be watching for. The game is July 12 in St. Louis.
  • Jesus Montero's stock seems to be rising with every swing of the bat. The 19-year-old Yankee catcher has already risen to Double-A, and while his defense leaves something to be desired (and may require a position change), his offensive potential is becoming harder and harder to doubt. Montero is hitting .346 with 5 HRs and just 7 Ks in 22 games for Trenton after raking at a .356/.406/.583 clip for Tampa. He may move off of the position in the majors, but for now Montero is in the same class as Buster Posey and Carlos Santana as the best catching prospects in the game.
  • Dodgers SS Dee Gordon (Tom's son) is also having a great 2009, his first full pro season. Gordon was a little-known 4th-rounder last year, as he didn't play baseball at Seminole CC last spring because of a grade mixup. He has knocked off the rust in Low A, though, batting .313 with 42 stolen bases. Gordon, a lefty batter, projects as an athletic, top-of-the-order speedster. He has blazing speed and a line-drive bat, as well as good actions at short. I'm leery of his super-low power numbers (.092 IsoP), inconsistencies at shortstop (25 errors), and all-around unrefined game. He's having a good year, but I'm not quite ready to jump on the Dee Gordon bandwagon.
  • Michael Saunders is putting an end to the debate over who Seattle's top prospect is. While challenger Greg Halman has racked up 116 strikeouts and a sub-.700 OPS in 68 games, Saunders has returned from an early-season injury to bat .303/.375/.520 in Triple-A. The 22-year-old Canadian is showing glimpses of his all-around potential, with that .895 OPS, 10 HRs, 5 stolen bases, and above-average defense. Saunders (whom I have a foul ball from) is making all his scouting reports look good, and he could be a top-25 prospect at the end of the year.
  • Does Scott Boras have more shenanigans up his sleeve to drive up Stephen Strasburg's leverage?
  • Orioles LHP Brian Matusz is living up to his pre-draft billing as an advanced college hurler. The 4th overall pick in 2008 out of San Diego, Matusz began the year by posting a 2.16 ERA for High A Frederick. After a promotion, he started willing Eastern League hitters into submission, going 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA in his first 18 Double-A innings. Matusz, who has three outstanding secondary offerings (and good command) to back up his firm fastball, has a composite 1.80 ERA this year in 85 innings. He has punched out 96, and opponents are hitting .210 off him. He is perhaps one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Matusz's domination adds to an impressive next wave for the Orioles; they have Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, and many more promising prospects flying through their system.
  • More prospects who are laying waste to their leagues and making strides are Padres 3B Logan Forsythe (.330/.476/.506), Phillies OF Michael Taylor (.345/.407/.595 with 15 HRs--will he ever stop mashing?), Reds OF Todd Frazier (.318 with a whopping 31 doubles), Diamondbacks RHP Jarrod Parker (2.36 ERA and 1.74 groundball-flyball ratio), Bumgarner (1.63 ERA, .211 OBA), Giants RHP Tim Alderson (2.97 ERA and only 12 BBs allowed all year), Indians 1B Jordan Brown (.883 OPS), Padres RHP Mat Latos (7-1, 1.28 ERA), Indians 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (.865 OPS), and Royals LHP Mike Montgomery (1.93 ERA).
  • Some of the prospects who aren't enjoying the '09 campaign are Marlins C Kyle Skipworth (.201/.259/.328 with 14-71 BB-K ratio), Pirates 2B Shelby Ford (.428 OPS), Brewers RHP Jeremy Jeffress (55 BB in 60 IP, demotion, suspension), Indians RHP Trey Haley (21-31 K-BB), Rangers OF Engel Beltre (.217/.268/.302), Orioles OF Xavier Avery (.670 OPS), Blue Jays C J.P. Arencibia (.236/.291/.417), Marlins 3B Matt Dominguez (.693 OPS), Padres 2B Matt Antonelli (sub-.220 AVG and sub-.700 OPS for second year in a row), and Astros OF Jay Austin (.675 OPS, 12 CS).
  • Check out this crazy box score from a June 28 Cal League game.
Michael Saunders
*Photos courtesy of www.milb.com