Ever since their last postseason appearance in 1997, the Orioles have been going downhill. Bad trades, terrible drafting, and poor front offices have undermined the organization for over a decade. Baltimore fans have lots to look forward to, though.
First off, the O's have a great outfield. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold (who are all in their mid-20s and just scratching the surface of their potential) each sport OPS's above .800. All of them have 30 HR power and athleticism as well.
Then, of course, you've got Matt Wieters behind the plate. When he signed for $6 million after being drafted 5th overall in 2007, it signaled a change in the direction of the franchise. No longer were they going to skimp on talent, they were going to pay top-dollar for the top prospects. (Contrast that to the Pirates, who passed on Wieters and Scott Boras to take the far-inferior Daniel Moskos.) Most regard Wieters as the top prospect in baseball, and he will partially be able to turn around the team by himself. In time, he'll be a Joe Mauer with power. Or like Mark Teixeira--as a catcher.
The best part for the Orioles, though, is that they have bushels of talent (particularly on the mound) yet to reach the majors. Last year's 1st-rounder, LHP Brian Matusz, pitched in the Futures Game and is having a brilliant year. He's posted a 2.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9 between High A and Double-A. He could pitch off his low-90s fastball more, but Matusz is a polished pitcher with three quality secondary offerings and plus control. The San Diego product is arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, and he should be ready for The Show by next year.
Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, both at Triple-A, make it a truly fearsome top 3 for Baltimore. Tillman, a prototypical projectable righty with a plus fastball and plus curve, has dominated at every stop in the minors. Despite being just 21, the '06 1st-rounder has a 2.42 ERA and an impressive 95-22 K-BB ratio. Arrieta garnered an above-slot bonus as a 5th-rounder from TCU two years ago. The durable righthander, who has posted a 3.22 ERA and 108 Ks in 101 IPs, is also a potential ace. He attacks batters with a power slider and a fastball that touches 97 mph. If his secondary offerings don't come around or command woes slow him, Arrieta could be a late-inning reliever. Tillman and Arrieta have similar issues that they need to fine-tune, but they have excellent upside.
Zach Britton, a lefthander pitching in the High A Carolina League, is progressing nicely as well. The 21-year-old has a good sinker which induces ground balls. Britton rounds out his repertoire with a 4-seamer, slider, and changeup. He hasn't gotten a lot of hype yet, but I like him as a mid-rotation starter.
Brad Bergesen, who is already in the majors, doesn't have the ceiling of those guys, but he does manage to retire batters consistently. The 23-year-old righthander relies on a deceptive motion and a solid sinker/slider combo. After putting up a 3.10 ERA in 165 IP in 2008, Bergesen has recorded a 3.51 ERA in 110 MLB IP. He will be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in the long-term.
RHPs David Hernandez and Jason Berken are in the same boat. They're never going to top a rotation, but they are still quality options (and both have reached the majors already). I like Hernandez much more than others do. His fastball is about 91-92 and his slider is vicious. He performs wherever he goes, too: 2.68 ERA with 10.6 K/9 in 2008, 3.23 ERA with 12.2 K/9 this year in the minors, and sub-4.00 ERA so far in the majors. His susceptibility to homers might make him a reliever, but I still believe Hernandez is a useful hurler. Berken, meanwhile, could be a #5 starter. The former Clemson Tiger lacks premium stuff, but has gotten the job done in the minors.
The Birds also nabbed some intriguing arms this year in the draft. They reached at #5 for prep righty Matt Hobgood, but he is still a big-time talent. Along with a durable build and good makeup, he is armed with a fastball that scrapes 95 mph and a swing-and-miss curveball. A couple of refinements could make him an elite prospect. RHPs Randy Henry (4th round) and Jake Cowan (10) and LHP Ashur Tolliver (5) also have power arms. Rice RHP Ryan Berry (8) will be a steal if the Orioles get him signed.
Baltimore's bounty of arms doesn't stop there. Brandon Erbe is still only 21 and has upside galore. LHP Troy Patton is rebounding nicely from shoulder surgery. If Kam Mickolio and Luis Lebron can harness their right arm, he'll make an impact in the bullpen. Bobby Bundy is further down in the system, but he is a good prospect.
Offensively, the Orioles' brightest prospect is Brandon Snyder. He has moved his way down the defensive spectrum since getting picked 14th overall in 2005, but he has also hit his way to Triple-A this year. Most scouts like his swing, and he could be an average regular. C Caleb Joseph (.328/.362/.490 in High A), OF Ronnie Welty (.303/.389/.424 in Low A), and others also offer promise.
The AL East is the best division in baseball, and the Orioles are in a big hole to begin with. Nonetheless, they are moving in the right direction. The East is about to get even more rugged real soon.
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