Tuesday, October 6, 2009

State of the System: Boston Red Sox

Quick Look
The Red Sox are going to continue to compete for World Series titles annually. Along with their obviously powerful MLB team, they have a deep, diverse store of prospects and are willing to spend big to procure amateur talent.

Top Prospects
Casey Kelly, rhp
Age: 19 Level: High A-Triple-A
After receiving $3 million to spurn Tennessee as the last pick in 2008's first round, Kelly burst on to the scene this year. Although the '09 Futures Game participant still harbors dreams of playing shortstop in the majors, he showed why his future is on the mound (2.08 ERA and 1.6 GO/AO compared to .222/.302/.340 at the plate). He has a smooth delivery and advanced 3-pitch mix: a high-80s to low-90s sinking fastball, good curveball, and changeup.

Ryan Westmoreland, of
Age: 19 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Westmoreland has eye-popping tools; the lefty-swinging Rhode Islander has been compared to Jacoby Ellsbury with power. He went .296/.401/.484 with a strong BB-K ratio and 19 steals (in as many attempts) this season. The biggest concern with the former soccer star is that he's been injury prone during his short career. Westmoreland is farther away than most of the players on this list, but the early returns are outstanding.

Lars Anderson, 1B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
It was a vexing year for last year's top prospect. He inexplicably went backwards in all phases, losing his power and feel for the strike zone (.673 OPS). Everyone gets a mulligan, though, and if Anderson can regain his former promise, he will be an above-average starting first baseman for Boston.

Junichi Tazawa, rhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Tazawa reached the majors in his first year in the U.S. Although the undersized righty struggled, he'll be an asset for the Red Sox in the near future--most likely as a mid-rotation starter. Tazawa primarily works with an 89-91 mph fastball, plus splitter, and average curveball. Despite an odd delivery, Tazawa has pretty good command.

Josh Reddick, of
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Reddick's free-swinging approach makes him susceptible to slumps and strikeouts, but he did make some progress in the plate discipline department this year. Reddick has a strong swing, a knack for barreling up the ball, and the raw power to hit 20-25 HRs in his prime. He has some athleticism and speed, and his sniper arm rounds out a strong defensive package in right field.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A
Rizzo has already beat cancer; the road to the majors will seem simple to the 2007 6th-rounder. Similar to Lars Anderson, Rizzo has a feel for hitting, especially to the opposite field. He also has soft hands and good actions at first base. Ready for Double-A, the 6-3, 220-pounder is still growing into his power.

Ryan Kalish, of
Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Kalish, who compares well to Mark Kotsay, has an innate feel for hitting, and his power spiked in 2009 as well. He hit .279/.364/.455 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases between High A and Double-A. Kalish is a strong defender, albeit without a standout arm. He has bulked up considerably since turning pro, and if he loses a step he won't profile as well. The lefty draws walks, but also strikes out a fair amount. Kalish's goal in 2010 will be to master the high minors, and he could reach Boston as early as September.

Michael Bowden, rhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Bowden has a great work ethic and makes the necessary adjustments at each level. He also has solid stuff (88-93 mph fastball, curve, change). I'm not sold that his luck won't run out in the majors, though. Bowden isn't overpowering, lost control of the strike zone (one of his erstwhile strengths) this year, and gives up a lot of fly balls. He has also gotten hammered in the majors. Most troublesome, Bowden has ridiculous arm action. His ceiling is a #3-4 starter, but Bowden has work to do to avoid becoming just another filler.

Stolmy Pimentel, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Low A-Double-A
Pimentel took a steady, if not glamorous, turn through the South Atlantic League this year. He posted a 3.82 ERA and displayed a feel for pitching. The key for Pimentel moving forward will be improving his stuff a tick, or developing plus command (he already has plus control). Pimentel has an average fastball, effective changeup, and decent breaking ball. The 6-3 Dominican is somewhat hittable, but he's shown the pitchability and aptitude to become a mid-rotation starter.

David Renfroe, ss
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Renfroe is Casey Kelly Lite. A prep shortstop/righthander, he got a hefty signing bonus ($1.4 million) to eschew Ole Miss and will reportedly begin his pro career as a shortstop. Renfroe has a feel for hitting as well as easy power. He may shift to third base, where he would be a smooth defender. Renfroe has excellent arm strength, with a fastball that often hits the low-90s.

Che-Hsuan Lin, of
Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A
Lin is unrefined at the plate and will need to take several steps forward to maximize his potential. (He does show good plate discipline, though.) If he can make some adjustments, he'll be a star. Lin has the speed of a track star, graceful actions in center, a rifle arm, and even a dash of raw power.

Others: SS Jose Iglesias; OF Reymond Fuentes; RHPs Stephen Fife, Alex Wilson, and Kyle Weiland
Impact Talent: B+
Farm System Depth: A-

2010 Breakout Prospect
Madison Younginer, rhp
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Younginer didn't receive much exposure in high school because he worked out of the bullpen. The Clemson recruit caught Boston's eye, though, and they gave him an above-slot bonus in the 7th round this year. Younginer has a premium arm, with a fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, and a tight slider. He has nuances of pitching to work on, and needs to show the bullpen isn't is permanent home, but Younginer's stuff makes him a breakout candidate in 2010 regardless. He'll probably spend most of the year at Low A Greenville.

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