State of the System: Detroit Tigers

Quick Look

The Tigers aren't in shambles, but many of their players are overpaid and much of their roster is deteriorating. Detroit has the money to pay up for stars like Miguel Cabrera, but their brightest sign for the future is the dynamic 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, both legitimate young cornerstones. The Tigers need more than that to rebound from their historic late-season collapse this year, though. Prospect-wise, one can find some interesting pieces, but overall the system is woesome.

Top Prospects

Jacob Turner, rhp

Age: 18 Level: none-High A

Turner was a premium high school prospect who went 9th overall in the draft this year. He is not at the level of Porcello, as some have suggested, but he does have top-of-the-rotation potential. Turner works in the low-90s and has touched 97-98 mph, his curveball has plus potential, and his changeup is improving. Turner has solid intangibles and will be fun to watch in his full-season debut next year.

Casey Crosby, lhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A

The Illinois native was knocked out all of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He got back on track in the Midwest League this year, posting a 2.41 ERA and showing his pre-surgery talent. Crosby's fastball ranges from 92-95 mph and his changeup is a swing-and-miss pitch. His hard curveball made strides this year, but it is inconsistent like much of his game. (Crosby's control, specifically, needs more polish.) He is a good competitor. He is fairly raw, but Crosby's package marks him as a future rotation piece. He'll advance to High A Lakeland next year.

Scott Sizemore, 2B

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Sizemore is a very good player, but the fact that a soon-to-be 25-year-old R-R second baseman is the #3 prospect is a reflection of Detroit's lifeless farm system. That's not to take anything away from the Virginia Commonwealth alum, whose short swing and intelligent approach give him a true knack for hitting. He had a fabulous .308/.389/.500 campaign divided between Double-A and Triple-A this year, throwing in 39 doubles, 17 homers, and 21 steals for good measure. Sizemore has fringy power and defensive skills, but the instincts to compensate. He is not particularly athletic or toolsy, but he has improved enough to where he gets the job done. Sizemore will need to recuperate from an injury he sustained in the Arizona Fall League, but he will be a nice homegrown replacement for Placido Polanco.

Andy Oliver, lhp

Age: 21 Level: none-Double-A

Oliver got caught up in a lengthy lawsuit with the NCAA, but now he should be able to focus on his career. The former Oklahoma State lefty has a strong, durable frame and a plus fastball, an explosive 92-94 mph heater. He used to possess a knockout curveball, but he seems to have lost the feel for that pitch. Oliver now relies more on a solid changeup and an inconsistent slider. He throws strikes and won't require much minor league time. Oliver needs to get back on track, but he has the talent to make good on Detroit's above-slot $1.495 investment.

Alex Avila, c

Age: 22 Level: MLB

Avila seemed like a nepotistic pick when the Tigers picked the Alabama catcher in the 5th round last year (his father Al is Detroit's Vice President and Assistant General Manager). He busted out this year, though, putting up a .815 OPS in Double-A and making a strong major league debut. The lefty's .965 OPS in the majors isn't sustainable, but he does have the talent to be a productive big leaguer. The 5-11, 200-pounder has a strong swing, hand-eye-coordination, and the strength and leverage to hit for power. His defense isn't stellar, but he should be serviceable enough to stay behind the plate. Avila probably won't be a star, but he reached Detroit very quickly, and could be a solid regular there for a long time.

Daniel Fields, ss

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Fields would be too raw to rank among most teams' top 10. The 2009 6th-rounder is a hometown product who received a $1.625 million signing bonus to spurn the Michigan Wolverines. Fields has a powerful swing from the left side and has the tools to be an excellent hitter for an infielder. He is big and will soon shift to third base, but he most likely will fit well there as he improves his defense and grows into more power. Fields has good speed and athleticism, but the most pressing question is if his bat is polished enough to hang with advanced pitching early in his career. Next year Fields will take a hack at the Midwest League, where we'll get a better gauge on his ability.

Wilkin Ramirez, of

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Ramirez was a former high-profile third base prospect. His erratic defense and lack of plate discipline derailed him, but Ramirez has reached the majors as a left fielder. The Dominican-born righty has tremendous raw power, although his swing his full of holes and he has a poor approach. He has good speed for a big man (33 SBs in 2009), so he has some value other than his bat. I don't see Ramirez being consistent or refined enough to be a star, but his plus tools will allow him to make some impact.

Robbie Weinhardt, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB

Weinhardt, a 10th-round pick from Oklahoma State in 2008, had an outstanding season in 2009, tearing through the Florida State League before merely pitching well in Double-A. The-soon-to-be-24-year-old, solidly built for a pitcher at 6-2, 205, could reach Detroit early next season. Weinhardt sits at 93 mph and touches 95. His curveball is no better than average, and neither is his control. At any rate, Weinhardt should be a steady big league reliever in some capacity.

Casper Wells, of

Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB

Wells turns 25 in two weeks and hit .260 with 100+ Ks in Double-A this year. He also dealt with injury problems, but the pride of Towson still has enough upside to be interesting. Wells has plus raw power, runs well, and has a howitzer arm. He has holes in his swing and his approach will keep him from being a true star (he doesn't put the ball in play often enough). He needs a major league opportunity more than anything right now. Wells is a little on the old side, but his tools merit a look, and I like him as a sleeper.

Ryan Strieby, 1B/of

Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB

Strieby fits the bill for a classic minor league slugger. The 6-5, 235-pounder has well above-average power and adjusts well at the plate; he hit .303/.427/.565 this year, a year removed from a 29-homer outburst in the Florida State League in 2008. He will be 25 next year, however, and has beat up on somewhat younger competition. Strieby is limited defensively because his frame is huge and cumbersome, though he is agile enough to have gotten some reps in the outfield. All of Strieby's value comes from his bat, and he is hoping it is good enough to surpass the Ryan Shealy and Shelley Duncan types of the world.

Cody Satterwhite, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Satterwhite is the minor league equivalent of Kyle Farnsworth to me. He was perplexingly inconsistent at Ole Miss in spite of a huge arsenal, headlined a 95-98 mph fastball and devastating breaking ball. He was similarly mercurial in Double-A this year, striking out batters and walking them at extremely high rates. He needs to take a leap forward with his command and mentality, but Satterwhite is close to the majors and has high upside.

Others: RHPs Casey Fien, Scott Green, Luis Marte, and Alfredo Figaro; SSs Gustavo Nunez and Cale Iorg

Impact Talent: C-

Farm System Depth: D+

2010 Breakout Prospect

Melvin Mercedes, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Mercedes is a true project, what with his combination of youth, nonexistence of track record, and incredible wildness (5.7 per 9 innings in limited duty this year). The Dominican native has a good pitcher's body and lots to work with. Mercedes has a lively 92-93 mph fastball that peaks at 95, a promising two-plane slider, and the resilience to take the mound the day after a bad outing. He could pitch in Short-Season or in Low A next year, where he'll have a chance to improve his consistency and possibly put his name on the map. Mercedes is undoubtedly raw, but he has the talent to become a late-inning reliever.

Top Talents Get Top Dollar as Negotiations Go Down to the Wire

Last night (midnight ET) was the deadline for 2009 draft picks to sign a professional contract, meaning many of the best amateurs in the nation are watching the ink dry on multi-million dollar bonuses. All but two first-rounders eventually came to an agreement with their clubs. (That doesn't include #12 pick Aaron Crow, who, as an indy leaguer, has extra time.) Scott Boras Corp. clients had particularly contentious negotiations, but once again Boras came out a winner. Boras clients set records for the richest overall deal ever, the top bonus for a high school player ever, and the highest bonus handed to a prep pitcher. Here's some of the biggest news from the last few days. (As always, Baseball America's Draft Database has a complete list of the bonuses and signees.)

• #1 pick Stephen Strasburg, after months of speculation, accepted a major league deal including a $7.5 million bonus and $15.1 million guaranteed. He had been rumored to be seeking much more than that, but the pact is still the richest of all time. Strasburg couldn't possibly have gained any more leverage by rejecting the Nats' offer, so he wisely accepted the figure. Now we'll see if he can live up to expectations and turn a franchise around single-handedly.
• Rangers 1st-rounder Matt Purke, a high school lefty who went 14th overall, was one of two 1st-rounders to not sign. Purke will take his overpowering fastball-breaking ball package to TCU, where he will be draft-eligible after 2 years.
• LeVon Washington couldn't come to terms with the Rays as the #30 overall pick, either. That would seem to make the speedy 2B/OF ticketed for Florida, but apparently he doesn't qualify academically, so I guess we'll see what happens.
• Dustin Ackley (Mariners, 2nd overall) garnered an MLB contract with a $6 million signing bonus and $7.5 million guaranteed. The smooth-swinger also has salary incentives for how quickly he reaches the major leagues. Seattle also got high school infielder Nick Franklin, their other 1st-rounder, for $1.28 million over the weekend.
  
• Donavan Tate, a high school outfielder from Georgia who went third overall, signed a $6.25 million deal with the Padres (that is spread out over 4 years because he is a multi-sport athlete). That is the largest bonus ever handed to a high school player. Earlier, San Diego gave 52nd overall pick Everett Williams $775,000 and 4th-rounder Keyvius Sampson $600,000. The trio spurned UNC, Texas, and Florida State, respectively.
• The Rockies capped off a superb draft by signing 11th overall pick Tyler Matzek for $3.9 million. A 6-3 lefty with incredible upside, Matzek had been headed to Oregon. Colorado got 3 1st-round talents--Matzek, 30th pick Tim Wheeler (OF, Sacramento State), and 32nd pick Rex Brothers (LHP, Lipscomb)--as well as several other sound picks. That'll give the farm system a nice boost.
• San Francisco's #1 pick, RHP Zack Wheeler, netted a $3.3 million bonus as the 6th overall selection.
• The Tigers spent big on a couple of Scott Boras clients, giving them one of the better draft hauls in the industry. Their top pick, Missouri high school RHP Jacob Turner, received a major league contract that includes a $4.7 million signing bonus and $5.5 million in guaranteed money (making it the largest contract ever for a high school hurler). Turner, who had been committed to North Carolina, has touched the upper-90s and flashed a nice curve and change. Detroit also gave 2nd-rounder Andy Oliver, an Oklahoma State lefty, $1.425 million. Prep shortstop Daniel Fields (6th round) signed for $1.625 million.
• Shelby Miller, a fireballing Texas righthander, signed an above-slot $2.875 bonus and instantly became the Cardinals' best prospect.
• The Indians locked up #15 pick Alex White with a $2.25 million signing bonus. White is a power righty out of North Carolina.
• The Reds spent over $3 million to sign their top two picks. Arizona State RHP Mike Leake, the 8th overall pick, took home $2.27 million and USC RHP Brad Boxberger, a supplemental-rounder, got $857,000.
• I wasn't blown away by the Marlins' effort, but at least they did come to terms with all of their top choices, particularly high school hurlers Chad James ($1.7 million) and Bryan Berglund ($572,500).
  
• The Blue Jays were aggressive in getting 3rd-rounder Jake Marisnick, an athletic high school outfielder from California, to sign for $1 million, but they had snafus with a trio of their other top picks. Supplemental-round LHP James Paxton will return to Kentucky, and high school pitchers Jake Eliopoulos (2nd round) and Jake Barrett (3rd round) will head to college. That's an extremely disappointing draft for Toronto, who didn't exactly have a thriving farm system in the first place.
• The Twins signed 1st-rounder Kyle Gibson for $1.8 million despite concerns over his health. Gibson, who has a stress fracture in his forearm, will be a steal if he regains his stuff--he could've been a top-10 pick if not for the injury.
• The Yankees signed their 1st-round pick, high school outfielder Slade Heathcott, for $2.2 million. New York also picked up prep catcher J.R. Murphy (supplemental-rounder) and Vanderbilt RHP Caleb Cotham (5th-rounder) for $1.25 million and $675,000, respectively.
• The A's doled out some huge bonuses, cementing their draft class as one of the finest in the game. 1st-rounder Grant Green, a shortstop from USC, got $2.75 million, while top high school catcher Max Stassi received $1.5 million. Ian Krol (7th round), a high school lefty, got $925,000 to sign with Oakland. Stassi had committed to UCLA, while Krol was an Arizona recruit.
  
• Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis, a sophomore-eligible Boras client (double whammy), inked a deal with the Brewers. Davis had an up-and-down spring, but still got $1.2 million (well above slot for the 39th overall pick).
• LSU took a blow when touted recruit Brody Colvin signed with Philadelphia (for $900,000). A power righthander, Colvin gives the Phillies' weak draft class a necessary boost. His bonus was the third highest in the 7th round.
• The Mets had a pretty awful draft, but they did sign 2 of their best picks. LHP Steven Matz, New York's first choice and the #72 overall pick, received $895,000 to forgo Coastal Carolina and 14th-round LHP Zach Dotson got $500,000 to pass up Georgia. That was about it, though. A big-market organization in dire need of a talent injection, New York completely and epically failed this year.
• The Rays handed prep 1B Jeff Malm (5th round) $680,000 and prep outfielder Todd Glaesmann (3rd round) $930,000. Tampa Bay was not so fortunate with its first two picks, though, as Washington and Stanford recruit Kenny Diekroeger went unsigned. That's kind of a rough draft for TB, as Malm, Glaesmann, and C Luke Bailey (4th round) are three of their only draftees whom I actually like.
• With Crow still yet to sign, major league clubs have spent over $160 million on the first 10 rounds of the draft this year, about the same as last year (a team-by-team look is available here). The Nationals also set the record for the most money sunk into a single draft class. Looks like MLB's misguided attempts to keep bonuses down are failing miserably.

Now the draft is finalized, we can begin to gauge teams' efforts (although it takes years to give them a proper final assessment). I think the Diamondbacks and Rockies had the top two drafts (taking draft position into consideration--the Nationals obviously collected the most talent), and I think the Mets and Blue Jays acquired next to nothing. Now that we know which college recruits were successfully shepherded through the draft and which ones were snatched up by pro ball, I will have a complete wrap-up of the top recruiting classes coming up.

Dustin Ackley

*Photo courtesy of www.seattlepi.com