Quick Look
The Tigers aren't in shambles, but many of their players are overpaid and much of their roster is deteriorating. Detroit has the money to pay up for stars like Miguel Cabrera, but their brightest sign for the future is the dynamic 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, both legitimate young cornerstones. The Tigers need more than that to rebound from their historic late-season collapse this year, though. Prospect-wise, one can find some interesting pieces, but overall the system is woesome.
Top Prospects
Jacob Turner, rhp
Age: 18 Level: none-High A
Turner was a premium high school prospect who went 9th overall in the draft this year. He is not at the level of Porcello, as some have suggested, but he does have top-of-the-rotation potential. Turner works in the low-90s and has touched 97-98 mph, his curveball has plus potential, and his changeup is improving. Turner has solid intangibles and will be fun to watch in his full-season debut next year.
Casey Crosby, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A
The Illinois native was knocked out all of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He got back on track in the Midwest League this year, posting a 2.41 ERA and showing his pre-surgery talent. Crosby's fastball ranges from 92-95 mph and his changeup is a swing-and-miss pitch. His hard curveball made strides this year, but it is inconsistent like much of his game. (Crosby's control, specifically, needs more polish.) He is a good competitor. He is fairly raw, but Crosby's package marks him as a future rotation piece. He'll advance to High A Lakeland next year.
Scott Sizemore, 2B
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Sizemore is a very good player, but the fact that a soon-to-be 25-year-old R-R second baseman is the #3 prospect is a reflection of Detroit's lifeless farm system. That's not to take anything away from the Virginia Commonwealth alum, whose short swing and intelligent approach give him a true knack for hitting. He had a fabulous .308/.389/.500 campaign divided between Double-A and Triple-A this year, throwing in 39 doubles, 17 homers, and 21 steals for good measure. Sizemore has fringy power and defensive skills, but the instincts to compensate. He is not particularly athletic or toolsy, but he has improved enough to where he gets the job done. Sizemore will need to recuperate from an injury he sustained in the Arizona Fall League, but he will be a nice homegrown replacement for Placido Polanco.
Andy Oliver, lhp
Age: 21 Level: none-Double-A
Oliver got caught up in a lengthy lawsuit with the NCAA, but now he should be able to focus on his career. The former Oklahoma State lefty has a strong, durable frame and a plus fastball, an explosive 92-94 mph heater. He used to possess a knockout curveball, but he seems to have lost the feel for that pitch. Oliver now relies more on a solid changeup and an inconsistent slider. He throws strikes and won't require much minor league time. Oliver needs to get back on track, but he has the talent to make good on Detroit's above-slot $1.495 investment.
Alex Avila, c
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Avila seemed like a nepotistic pick when the Tigers picked the Alabama catcher in the 5th round last year (his father Al is Detroit's Vice President and Assistant General Manager). He busted out this year, though, putting up a .815 OPS in Double-A and making a strong major league debut. The lefty's .965 OPS in the majors isn't sustainable, but he does have the talent to be a productive big leaguer. The 5-11, 200-pounder has a strong swing, hand-eye-coordination, and the strength and leverage to hit for power. His defense isn't stellar, but he should be serviceable enough to stay behind the plate. Avila probably won't be a star, but he reached Detroit very quickly, and could be a solid regular there for a long time.
Daniel Fields, ss
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Fields would be too raw to rank among most teams' top 10. The 2009 6th-rounder is a hometown product who received a $1.625 million signing bonus to spurn the Michigan Wolverines. Fields has a powerful swing from the left side and has the tools to be an excellent hitter for an infielder. He is big and will soon shift to third base, but he most likely will fit well there as he improves his defense and grows into more power. Fields has good speed and athleticism, but the most pressing question is if his bat is polished enough to hang with advanced pitching early in his career. Next year Fields will take a hack at the Midwest League, where we'll get a better gauge on his ability.
Wilkin Ramirez, of
Age: 24 Level: MLB
Ramirez was a former high-profile third base prospect. His erratic defense and lack of plate discipline derailed him, but Ramirez has reached the majors as a left fielder. The Dominican-born righty has tremendous raw power, although his swing his full of holes and he has a poor approach. He has good speed for a big man (33 SBs in 2009), so he has some value other than his bat. I don't see Ramirez being consistent or refined enough to be a star, but his plus tools will allow him to make some impact.
Robbie Weinhardt, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
Weinhardt, a 10th-round pick from Oklahoma State in 2008, had an outstanding season in 2009, tearing through the Florida State League before merely pitching well in Double-A. The-soon-to-be-24-year-old, solidly built for a pitcher at 6-2, 205, could reach Detroit early next season. Weinhardt sits at 93 mph and touches 95. His curveball is no better than average, and neither is his control. At any rate, Weinhardt should be a steady big league reliever in some capacity.
Casper Wells, of
Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB
Wells turns 25 in two weeks and hit .260 with 100+ Ks in Double-A this year. He also dealt with injury problems, but the pride of Towson still has enough upside to be interesting. Wells has plus raw power, runs well, and has a howitzer arm. He has holes in his swing and his approach will keep him from being a true star (he doesn't put the ball in play often enough). He needs a major league opportunity more than anything right now. Wells is a little on the old side, but his tools merit a look, and I like him as a sleeper.
Ryan Strieby, 1B/of
Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB
Strieby fits the bill for a classic minor league slugger. The 6-5, 235-pounder has well above-average power and adjusts well at the plate; he hit .303/.427/.565 this year, a year removed from a 29-homer outburst in the Florida State League in 2008. He will be 25 next year, however, and has beat up on somewhat younger competition. Strieby is limited defensively because his frame is huge and cumbersome, though he is agile enough to have gotten some reps in the outfield. All of Strieby's value comes from his bat, and he is hoping it is good enough to surpass the Ryan Shealy and Shelley Duncan types of the world.
Cody Satterwhite, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Satterwhite is the minor league equivalent of Kyle Farnsworth to me. He was perplexingly inconsistent at Ole Miss in spite of a huge arsenal, headlined a 95-98 mph fastball and devastating breaking ball. He was similarly mercurial in Double-A this year, striking out batters and walking them at extremely high rates. He needs to take a leap forward with his command and mentality, but Satterwhite is close to the majors and has high upside.
Others: RHPs Casey Fien, Scott Green, Luis Marte, and Alfredo Figaro; SSs Gustavo Nunez and Cale Iorg
Impact Talent: C-
Farm System Depth: D+
2010 Breakout Prospect
Melvin Mercedes, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Mercedes is a true project, what with his combination of youth, nonexistence of track record, and incredible wildness (5.7 per 9 innings in limited duty this year). The Dominican native has a good pitcher's body and lots to work with. Mercedes has a lively 92-93 mph fastball that peaks at 95, a promising two-plane slider, and the resilience to take the mound the day after a bad outing. He could pitch in Short-Season or in Low A next year, where he'll have a chance to improve his consistency and possibly put his name on the map. Mercedes is undoubtedly raw, but he has the talent to become a late-inning reliever.
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