The good news for Astros fans: Houston no longer has the game's worst farm system. The bad: It still doesn't look very pretty, and owner Drayton McLane doesn't figure to spend enough to build it up anytime soon. The Astros haven't made the playoffs since 2005, and their laggard of a minor league system isn't going to provide a whole lot of help after the first few on this list.
Top Prospects
Jason Castro, c
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Castro is one of the least flashy #1 prospects out there. His ceiling is an above-average major league starting catcher, while his "floor" is a decent big leaguer. The Stanford product has a balanced approach at the plate, hitting line drives and occasional home runs. He has improved his defense since college; he now shows solid athleticism, a throwing arm and release capable of keeping the running game in check, and leadership skills. If Castro can hit .285/.335/.450 annually with steady defense, the Astros will be elated. He could reach Houston as soon as this year.
Jio Mier, ss
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
The pre-draft book on Mier, the 21st overall pick in '09, was that he was a classic good glove, no-hit shortstop. Mier, a SoCal native, is blessed with a plus arm, good footwork, and range, but many think he has a lot of work to do offensively. He showed at Rookie-level Greeneville, however, that he does have some aptitude at the plate, and even a bit of speed and power potential. Mier and Castro are far and away the top two position prospects for the 'Stros. The former, in fact, compares favorably to Tim Beckham.
Jordan Lyles, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Low A-Double-A
Young for his class, and considered a major overdraft in the supplemental round last year, Lyles nonetheless went out and rolled through the South Atlantic League. The South Carolina prepster put up a 3.24 ERA with an outstanding 167-38 K-BB ratio in 144 IP. Lyles does a stellar job working off his fastball, an 89-93 mph pitch with good life that he commands to both sides of the plate (he also mixes in a 2-seam variation). The 6-4, 185-pounder usually goes to an average changeup as his #2 pitch. Lyles also throws a slow curve and a slider, neither of which are plus pitches at this point. He needs to improve his groundball and line-drive rates.
Ross Seaton, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A
I like Seaton, who had a 3.29 ERA over 136 IP in the South Atlantic League this year. He wasn't as overpowering as I had expected coming into 2009, but he still has a solid repertoire and got the job done. Seaton's fastball was down from the consistent low-90s stuff he had shown in the past. He has flashed a quality slider and feel for a changeup, but neither were difference-makers this year. The Houston native is projectable and has some pitchability, but he simply needs to miss more bats to be effective at higher levels--he fanned just 5.8/9 IP in 2009. Seaton is a good prospect, but fellow '08 draftee Jordan Lyles has passed him.
Tanner Bushue, rhp
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
Bushue, like many recent Houston draftees, was not a consensus high-rounds pick in the draft this year. The Astros grabbed him in the 2nd round, however, signing the Illinois prepster for $530,000 and letting him get his feet wet with an assignment to the Gulf Coast League, where the early returns were positive. Athletic and working with a smooth, repeatable delivery, Bushue's fastball currently sits at 88-90. He touches the low-90s and has projectability remaining. Bushue needs to use his secondary offerings (decent curveball, underdeveloped changeup, slider) more often. He'll presumably head to the South Atlantic League for 2010 with his eye on justifying Houston's faith like Jordan Lyles did this season.
Chia-Jen Lo, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB
The Taiwanese-born righty had a memorable first season in the United States, pitching in the Futures Game and posting a 2.10 ERA (with 10.5 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9) while reaching Double-A. Lo relies heavily on a 91-95 mph fastball, sometimes even to the detriment of his curveball, which has a chance to be a plus pitch. Lo still needs to sharpen his command and continue adjusting to the new culture, but he should be a big league reliever in short order.
Jonathan Meyer, inf
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
The Astros bought Meyer out of a Cal State Fullerton commitment, a decision he may be rethinking after a miserable debut in the Appalachian League (.190/.301/.299 with 69 Ks in 221 ABs). Debuts tell little, though (just ask Derek Jeter and Chipper Jones), and Meyer still could have a bright future. Houston shifted him from shortstop to third base and had him hit exclusively from the right side this year. He struggled with the adjustments, but should be fine in the long run. Meyer has strong hands and shows some power potential. He has a plus arm and projects as a strong defender at the hot corner (some have tinkered with the idea of moving him behind the plate as well). He is an average runner. Meyer needs several years in the minors, but I like his potential.
Chris Johnson, 3B
Age: 25 Level: MLB
Johnson, a 2006 draftee from Stetson, has a power bat. His pull-happy, over-aggressive approach and vulnerability to breaking pitches saps his output, however. (His OPS has been steady around .800 the last two seasons.) He isn't a lumberer, but his below-average athleticism limits his range. Johnson does have a very strong arm. The 6-3, 220-pounder got a cup of coffee last year, and is ready to get an extended look in Houston. He could end up having a career similar to that of Ty Wigginton.
Jay Austin, of
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
Austin has wondrous tools, but showed his lack of polish with a .267/.320/.360 showing in his first full pro season this year. The Atlanta native has outstanding speed, but was only 23-for-36 stealing bases. The 5-11, 170-pounder also only hit one home run. It wasn't surprising; despite some bat speed and hand-eye coordination, Austin tries to swing for the fences and strikes out too much. He is a plus runner and capable of becoming an asset in the outfield. He has the quick swing to be a potentially decent hitter, and the hitter-friendly California League will do nothing but boost his confidence when he plays there next year. He needs much more refinement, but Austin's best-case scenario is a Michael Bourn-type.
Jon Gaston, of
Age: 23 Level: High A-Double-A
Gaston shared for the minor league lead in homers (35) in 2009, a feat that can be partly attributed to the Cal League launching pads in which he played, particularly his home park. The Arizona product does have legitimate power, but the barrel-chested 6-footer is not going to be whacking 81 extra-base hits a year at higher levels. Gaston has a few usable secondary tools, but his all-or-nothing approach and propensity for strikeouts (164 this year) severely limits his future. He is sure to regress next year; how much so will determine if he has a shot to at least play in the big leagues, or if he was simply a Lancaster mirage.
Others: RHP Sammy Gervacio; LHPs Polin Trinidad and Brad Dydalewicz; OFs Collin DeLome and T.J. Steele; SS Tommy Manzella
Impact Talent: C
Farm System Depth: D
2010 Breakout Prospect
Erik Castro, c/3B
Age: 22 Level: Short-Season-High A
Castro (6-4, 200 lbs.) has a chance to hit from the left side. He has a feel for the strike zone, a sound stroke, and some raw power. He caught for Stephen Strasburg at San Diego State, so handling high-end velocity won't be a problem. He also plays third base. The 10th-rounder is not a top-flight prospect, but I view him as a sleeper capable of contributing in the big leagues. He'd turn some heads with a breakout next year--he could definitely explode if he's placed in the Cal League.
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