Sunday, November 29, 2009

State of the System: Los Angeles Dodgers

Quick Look
Coming off consecutive trips to the NLCS, it goes without saying the Dodgers are a talented team. Excellent work by the scouting and player development departments has produced Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, and the rest of L.A.'s nucleus of young stars. The Dodgers should remain in contention in the AL West for the foreseeable future, but their system is just starting to be replenished after graduating so many core players.

Top Prospects
Chris Withrow, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Injuries limited the 2007 1st-rounder to just 13 innings in his first two pro seasons, but Withrow got back on the fast track this year, reaching Double-A at age 20. Withrow was inconsistent (11.7 BB%), but his pure stuff was electric. His fastball ranged from 92-96 mph and occasionally hit the high-90s. His curveball is also a plus pitch, and the 6-3, 195-pounder has a smooth delivery. Withrow has major work to do on his changeup and command, but time is on his side. Logging a fully healthy campaign in 2010 will be another step in the right direction for Withrow, a high-risk, high-reward prospect.

Dee Gordon, ss
Age: 20 Level: Low A-Double-A
Gordon, the son of former major league reliever Tom, burst onto the radar after sneaking past most teams in the 2008 draft. He has hit .311 with 91 steals in his first two seasons. Gordon is a wiry athlete with plus-plus speed. His range and defense are above-average, although he gets out of control and makes too many errors at this point. Gordon has a quick swing and hand-eye coordination. Just 150 pounds, he needs to drive the ball more to make good on his offensive potential. Gordon has the tools to become a standout big leaguer, but he is raw and lacks any signs of future power. He'll move on to High A Inland Empire next season.

Aaron Miller, lhp
Age: 22 Level: Low A-Double-A
I never thought I'd be ranking Miller as a pitching prospect, seeing how he arrived at Baylor three years ago as a productive right fielder. After somewhat underachieving, Miller got on the mound this year, and his live arm enticed the Dodgers to grab him with their first pick (36th overall). He is fairly raw, but Miller has serious arm strength (91-94 mph) and some aptitude for spinning a sharp slider. His athleticism and strong frame should serve him well. Miller has a lot of work to do, though. He has no changeup to speak of, his command needs major work, and he needs to upgrade his pitchability. He has the talent to reach Double-A in his first full pro season.

Andrew Lambo, of
Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Lambo was an astute draft pick for the Dodgers, as he lasted until the 4th round of the 2007 draft. He tore apart low-level competition (.343/.440/.519 in the GCL and .295/.351/.482 in the MWL, with a combined 50 doubles and 23 home runs) before merely staying afloat (.256/.311/.407) as one of the younger players in Double-A in 2009. Los Angeles pushed him aggressively because of Lambo's strong, advanced lefthanded stroke and gap power. He could develop into a .290 hitter with 40 doubles and 20 homers a year, but the California native needs a more sound approach (39-95 BB-K). Lambo is heavy-footed and limited athletically, so he needs to produce more offensively to be more than a spare part. He has promise, but Lambo simply needs to regain the life in his bat that he showed frequently in 2008. Repeating Double-A wouldn't be a disappointment.

Garrett Gould, rhp
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
The Dodgers bought Gould, a 2nd-round pick this year, out of a Wichita State commitment for $900,000. Although his career has barely begun, it is apparent the Kansas native has a huge ceiling. Gould's fastball often sits 91-94 mph, and his power curveball is an even deadlier pitch. He is also athletic and has an ideal pitcher's body at 6-4, 190. Scouts do worry about Gould's herky-jerky, max-effort mechanics, and he'll need to improve his changeup and command to stay in the rotation. Gould should move to the Midwest League for his first full season.

Ivan De Jesus, Jr., ss/2B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
De Jesus unfortunately missed the 2009 season after breaking his leg in Spring Training. He was coming off a .324/.419/.423 campaign the year before. De Jesus is a steady middle infielder in all phases of the game. He plays an adequate shortstop, but because he lacks overwhelming physical gifts, some like him better at second base. At the plate, De Jesus pairs a controlled, line-drive stroke with excellent strike zone judgment. He drew 76 walks in 2008. His instincts and baseball IQ help him get everything out of his tools, and he is bilingual with good makeup and leadership skills to boot. De Jesus won't be a star because he has modest power and speed, but he should be a useful player once he returns to health.

Josh Lindblom, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Lindblom, a Purdue product, did a respectable job in the starting rotation in Double-A this year (4.71 ERA, 46-14 K-BB ratio in 57 IP), but he was much better after a promotion to Triple-A and a switch to the bullpen. Lindblom posted a 2.54 ERA and raised his strikeout rate, although his walk rate worsened. With a plus fastball (88-94 mph with life), slider, splitter, and changeup, the Dodgers envision him as a future starter, but Lindblom probably fits better in the bullpen. His fastball is crisper in that role (up to 96) and he doesn't need to worry about his command as much. The 6-5 Lindblom will reach Los Angeles at some point in 2010.

Ethan Martin, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-Double-A
Martin was a high-profile two-way prep player and went 15th overall in the 2008 draft as a pitcher. His high-octane stuff (mid-90s fastball and vicious, if inconsistent, curveball) was on display in Low A this year. The Georgia native posted an outstanding 26.8 K%, but also a similarly eye-popping 13.6 BB%. Martin struggles to find the zone at times, and the quality of his pitches wavers as well. The 6-2, 195-pounder also has his work cut out for him in the changeup department. Martin has a long ways to go, and I see him as a future power-armed reliever.

Allen Webster, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Webster was a complete unknown before his scintillating showing in 2009. Divided between the AZL and the Pioneer League, Webster tossed 68 innings and maintained a 2.36 ERA with a 77-18 K-BB ratio. More importantly, the 6-2 native of North Carolina showed the tools to project as a future MLBer. Webster touches 94-95 mph with has fastball and has solid control in the low-90s. He flashes a changeup, and his curveball is a strikeout pitch. He needs to continue progressing to augment his recent gains (and do more than just decimate Rookie- ball), but Webster has frontline starter upside.

Scott Elbert, lhp
Age: 24 Level: MLB
Elbert has been hanging around forever. The constants throughout his 6-year career have been a good ERA, high strikeout rate, high walk rate, and bouts with injuries. The 2004 1st-rounder from a Missouri high school has made 29 appearances in the majors, all of them out of the bullpen. Despite 84 MiLB starts, that looks to be his future role. Though his development has been agonizingly slow, Elbert still has wicked raw stuff. His fastball cooks in the low- to mid-90s and his mid-80s downer curveball is a plus pitch. He has a bulldog mentality and has flashed a decent changeup. On the other hand, Elbert has max-effort mechanics and struggles with both control and command. It would be great if L.A. stuck him in the major league bullpen and just let him have a steady year. Elbert could be a #2 starter, but his record points to a career as a valuable lefty fireman.

Blake Smith, of
Age: 21 Level: Rookie-High-A
Smith, drafted out of Cal this year, has been on the prospect map for a while. He starred in high school and played for Team USA. Smith's long swing hinders his ability to make consistent contact and tap into his plus raw power, and he hasn't shown the ability to make many adjustments. (Case in point: the major college product put up a .619 OPS in Rookie-ball in his debut.) He has prototype right field tools, but I'd be more intrigued if Smith headed to the mound to see how his mid-90s heat fares in the pro ranks.

Others: RHPs Brett Wallach and Kenley Jansen; C Tony Delmonico; OFs Xavier Paul, Trayvon Robinson, and Jonathan Garcia
Impact Talent: C-
Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect
Angelo Songco, of
Age: 22 Level: Low A-High A
Songco was drafted in the 4th round this year after a standout career at Loyola Marymount. The 6-0 lefty-swinger was assigned to the Pioneer League (an inferior circuit for a top college product), where he slugged to the tune of .306/.361/.583 with a .401 wOBA. However, Songco had some scary peripherals (26.1 K% and .372 BABIP) and tanked once promoted to Low A (.150/.226/.258 over 134 plate appearances). Songco certainly has room for improvement in terms of his contact ability. He is also just passable defensively and will be a leftfielder in the long term. Nonetheless, I like Songco's power potential. He employs a distinctive setup to generate serious pop, and the thunder in his bat could alone get him to the majors. He is capable of making adjustments, and Songco is bound to open some eyes either in the Cal League or back in the Midwest League in 2010.

The Dodgers have several other outfield prospects of this ilk. Brian Cavazos-Galvez, a 2009 draftee from New Mexico, has classic rightfield power and a strong arm, but also has issues with a long swing and high K totals. And Kyle Russell is the king of the three true outcomes club; he put up some astonishing numbers in 2009 (some good and some bad). I don't think Russell will ever become a major league hitter with his track record of whiffs by the truckload.

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