Tuesday, November 10, 2009

State of the System: Florida Marlins

Quick Look
As players like Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and Chris Coghlan show, the Marlins franchise is built on scouting and player development. The Fish are on an upswing, and they should be right in the thick of the NL East race again in 2010. Their system depth is lacking, but they have several players with huge upside atop this list.

Top Prospects
Mike Stanton, of
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
For all of his impressive tools (especially his raw power, which ranks among the minors' best), observers love to note Stanton's work ethic, humility, and dedication to studying the game and improving. The hot-shot prospect plays like he is an undrafted free agent fighting for a roster spot. Stanton, a man-child at 6-5, 240, has the sheer power to crush tape-measure shots with regularity. The 2007 2nd-rounder is more than one-dimensional, however, as he runs well for a big man, plays solid defense in right field, and has a strong throwing arm. For all his gifts, though, Stanton strikes out frequently. Although he has no glaring mechanical flaws in his swing, he is fairly raw and certainly no guarantee to hit for a high average. Reaching Double-A as a teenager this year, Stanton hit a composite .255/.341/.501 with 28 home runs and 144 Ks. Stanton has superstar upside, but he needs to continue making adjustments in order to reduce his strikeout output and hit for a respectable batting average.

Logan Morrison, 1B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Morrison's level swing and advanced approach allow him to handle quality pitching with ease. He has an outstanding feel for the strike zone and squares up pitches consistently. The lefty-swinger missed several months this year with a hand injury, but still had a fine year in Double-A (particularly his 63-46 BB-K ratio). Morrison doesn't have plus-plus raw power, but he could be good for 20-25 homers, enough to do damage. He's an average defensive first baseman. Morrison should be ready for Florida at some point next season.

Chad James, lhp
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
James vaulted up draft boards after getting stronger and improving his stuff over the past year. The big lefty wound up going 18th overall and signing for $1.7 million. James sits at 90-92 mph and touches 95 with potentially more to come. His changeup and hard curveball are close to plus pitches at times, giving the Oklahoma native a tremendous ceiling. He needs to work on his command, delivery, and overall consistency. James has plenty of time to polish up and potentially develop into a Jon Lester-type.

Bryan Berglund, rhp
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
The projectable Berglund has three solid pitches, the foundation for a mid-rotation starter. His fastball, which is usually around 90 mph, has life and should increase as he fills out. Berglund throws an advanced changeup and an 80-83 mph slider, both of which have plus potential. He spots his pitches well for a young pitcher. Berglund is an excellent sleeper, as all he lacks his high-end present velocity.

Matt Dominguez, 3B
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Double-A
Dominguez was rushed up to Double-A this year, a sizeable offensive leap for the California native. He was overmatched in the Southern League after showing respectably in High A. Dominguez will need to time to refine his bat. His bat speed isn't the best, he has difficulty with breaking balls, and he does not possess prototypical corner power. His defense is not in question, though, and it has already been deemed big-league ready. Dominguez has soft hands, good footwork, a plus arm, and makes both routine and difficult plays. A 6-1, 210-pounder, Dominguez has always been young for his level. If his bat and all-around game catch up to his Gold Glove-caliber defensive work, he'll be a terrific player.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B
Age: 26 Level: MLB
Sanchez has been on the prospect radar seemingly forever. He had the opportunity to replace Mike Jacobs at first base in Miami coming out of Spring Training this year, but injuries (a common occurrence in his career) sabotaged his chances. Sanchez has an MLB-ready bat, as he uses excellent plate discipline, a knowledge of hitting, and a gap-to-gap approach to consistently compile productive seasons (although he doesn't have typical first-base power). Sanchez is not a factor defensively or on the basepaths either. If given a chance, though, Sanchez will be a steady regular, potentially hitting .290/.370/.450.

Ryan Tucker, rhp
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Tucker is a member of the pitching bounty the Marlins drafted in 2005. He made his way to the Miami in 2008, but he has not grabbed a permanent role yet, as he struggled initially and was knocked out with an arm injury for most of 2009. Tucker has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, the latter of which suits him best in my opinion. His 92-95 mph fastball that reaches 97, and his changeup is a reliable secondary pitch. Tucker has tinkered ineffectively with other pitches for years, and he's going with a slider now. His arsenal is fine, but it's his wildness (location-wise and with his mentality) that has hampered Tucker. He has taken his lumps, but Tucker will be ready to work in a short relief for the Marlins after a couple more months of minor league seasoning. I don't seem him becoming an impact player without drastic improvements in the control department.

Scott Cousins, of
Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB
Cousins, a two-player at the University of San Francisco, enjoyed a breakout 2008 campaign before regressing in Double-A this year (.263/.323/.448). Though he'll be 25 in January and struggled to control the zone this year (42-107 BB-K), the lefty-swinging Cousins has a high ceiling to hold out hope for. His arm and speed (not to mention his all-out, grinder mentality) make him a good fit in right field and, occasionally, center. Cousins has some strength and loft in his lefthanded stroke as well (54 extra-base hits in 2009), giving him 20-20 potential. Next year will be a defining point in his career.

Jose Ceda, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Ceda, who came over from the Cubs for Kevin Gregg, missed all of 2009 with injury. The gigantic (listed at 6-4, 280) righthander is nearly big-league ready, having reached Double-A and being earmarked for the bullpen. There's nothing cute about Ceda's approach. He attacks batters with a 95-97 mph fastball (that flirts with triple digits) and a sharp slider. Ceda struggles to stay healthy (perhaps due to his massive size), and has poor control anyway. Similar to a young Armando Benitez or Lee Smith, Ceda will be in the Marlins' bullpen once he regains his health.

Isaac Galloway, of
Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A
Galloway was a high-profile high school prospect, but slipped to the 8th round amid concerns over his bat. He did little to answer those questions in his pro debut, hitting .268/.298/.382 with 3 HRs in 2008. Galloway is raw with the bat, but if he does translate his tools into production, he has Torii Hunter-like upside. The Rancho Cucamonga native has exceptional speed, defense, arm, and possibly some future power. He'll tackle the Florida State League next year in hopes of putting it all together.

Others: RHPs Chris Leroux, Jhan Marinez, and Kyle Winters; OFs John Raynor and Bryan Petersen
Impact Talent: B+
Farm System Depth: D+

2010 Breakout Prospect
Arquimedes Caminero, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Low A-Double-A
Caminero is a pure fireballer, armed with an explosive 95-98 mph fastball and a mid-80s slider. That combination makes him death on righthanders. His big (6-4) frame is conducive to starting, but Caminero's aggressiveness, inconsistency, and lack of a third pitch make him a prime bullpen candidate. Working out of the 'pen would also get him moving quicker, as he's 22 and has pitched sparingly above short-season ball. Caminero needs to overcome astounding control deficiencies (nearly 6 BB/9 this year over 40 IP--compared to 13.5 K/9), but he has the scorching stuff to make an impact. His name definitely won't hurt (Arquimedes Euclides Caminero).

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