Sunday, November 22, 2009

State of the System: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Quick Look
The Angels continue to be a power at the major league level, having won the AL West 5 of the last 6 AL West seasons, although they have not reached the World Series since '02. The farm system is average, but much less promising than years past, when the Halos were consistently near the top of organization talent rankings. Los Angeles bolstered its pipeline with a solid draft haul this year (6 of 10 on this list came from this year's draft), taking advantage of compensation picks for the loss of Francisco Rodriguez and other free agents. The Angels have solid depth, but they lack a bona fide blue-chip prospect at this point.

Top Prospects
Mike Trout, of
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
Trout has a grinder mentality that allows him to get the most of his tools, which are impressive in the first place. The #25 pick this year, Trout got a taste of the Midwest League at the end of 2009, and should spend his first full pro season there next year. The New Jersey native has a quick righthanded stroke and raps out hits to all fields. For a player his age, he has solid strike-zone judgment, pitch recognition, and gap power. Trout has plus speed and runs the bases with reckless abandon, always looking to steal or take an extra base. He is steady defensively in center field and has strong competitive makeup. Trout will enter 2010 looking to prove his bat is legitimate. Coming from a Northern background, his bat was perceived at draft time as potentially a bit raw, and the .918 OPS Trout posted in his AZL debut was propped up by an unsustainable .430 BABIP. He is an excellent prospect, however, and his full-season debut bears close watching.

Hank Conger, c
Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Conger seems like he has been around forever, but the 2006 1st-rounder doesn't turn 22 until January. He has been hampered by injuries his entire career, relegating him to frequent DH duty and taking away vital development time. Conger's below-average defense has not had much chance to improve, as this year's 87 games played behind the plate nearly doubled his previous high. He'll always be a bat-first player, but some are at least hopeful that Conger will be able to stick at catcher. There is less doubt surrounding Conger's offensive production. He's aggressive, has a quick bat, and generates plus power. Conger is capable of a .280/.340/.480 line with 20 homers a year at his peak, but his health and ability to catch will determine his ultimate ceiling.

Tyler Skaggs, lhp
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
A Santa Monica native who the Angels acquired via the supplemental round this year, Skaggs is thin and projectable. His lanky frame could support significantly more muscle, meaning Skaggs could increase the velocity on his currently 88-91 mph fastball. His big rainbow curveball is a swing-and-miss pitch, and his changeup and slider show potential. Skaggs has a pretty easy arm action, but sometimes overthrows. The Angels will need to exhibit patience in developing Skaggs, but he could become a Cole Hamels- or Barry Zito-type pitcher.

Trevor Reckling, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Reckling flew under the radar as a New Jersey high schooler and early in his pro career. He has thrown 150+ effective innings each of the last two seasons (and reached Double-A at age 19), however, and has cemented his position as a legitimate prospect. Reckling has an average 87-91 mph fastball to go with a plus hook and a dependable changeup, making him the rare young hurler with a trio of average-or-better pitches. He has an odd motion, however, and his walk rate has gotten progressively worse as he has climbed the ladder. Reckling is athletic and his mechanics are deceptive for batters, but I worry about control, among other things. He projects as a #3, and could reach the majors for good in 2011.

Peter Bourjos, of
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Bourjos is a plus-plus runner and a true centerfielder. His arm suits the position well, and he is capable of making exciting plays. His speed makes him a threat to steal, and he could steal 50 bases a year in the majors. Offensively, Bourjos has a funky swing, lacks pitch recognition skills, and seldom draws walks. He has bat speed and some gap power, but has never amassed double-digit homers in a year in his career. Bourjos' progress over the last couple years is encouraging, but I don't expect him to be an above-average hitter. Taking his whole package into consideration, though, he should be a solid regular well-suited for the Angels.

Garrett Richards, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Rookie-High A
Richards had a wildly inconsistent collegiate career at Oklahoma, struggling in spite of a high-octane repertoire (6.57 ERA over three seasons). He made strides in his debut (albeit against low-level competition), lending some hope for the future. Richards' explosive fastball sits at 93-94 mph and has touched the high-90s in the past. His hard curveball has plus potential and depth. He also uses a mid-80s slider and flashes a strong changeup. He has a durable frame and throws downhill. Richards has the raw stuff to be unhittable at times, but he won't be a frontline starter unless he makes drastic improvement with his control and consistency. He'll be an interesting player to monitor next season.

Randal Grichuk, of
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
Grichuk was a surprise first-rounder this year, a righthanded pull hitter with minimal tools outside of his plus power. Grichuk stood out with a strong debut in the Arizona League, however, hitting .322/.352/.551 with 30 extra-base hits in 236 ABs. He showed fringe-average speed, athleticism, and arm strength, but he'll be a leftfielder in the long term. The biggest concern I have about the Texas native is his aggressive approach and poor contact skills. Future big leaguers don't post a 3.5 BB% and 25.1 K% in Rookie-ball.

Tyler Kehrer, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Rookie-Low A
Kehrer, an Eastern Illinois product, was drafted in the supplemental round this year. His best attributes are arm strength, size (6-3, 210), and sound mechanics. Kehrer loves to establish his fastball, an outstanding offering that sits in the low-90s and tops out at 96 mph. His secondary pitches lag behind at this point, primarily because Kehrer hasn't worked on them as much as his heater. His slider has occasional sharp break, but it is inconsistent, and his changeup is even less refined. He has poor command. I like Kehrer more than most, but he'll go to Low A next year with a laundry list of finer points to master.

Pat Corbin, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Rookie-High A
Corbin, a 2nd-rounder in June out of powerhouse Chipola JC, has all the ingredients of a steady future starting pitcher. The former basketball player is projectable and athletic at 6-3, 170. His fastball sits at 90-91 mph with life, his slurvy breaking ball is a decent pitch, and he has flashed plus feel for an improving changeup. Corbin throws strikes but his command naturally needs work. He'll head to A-ball next season.

Will Smith, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-Double-A
Smith looks like a power pitcher at 6-5, 230, but he keeps batters at bay by changing speeds and hitting spots. The Gulf Coast CC product has uncanny command for a pitcher his age, explaining his career 3.49 ERA and remarkable 171-30 K-BB ratio. That dominance is all at lower levels, however, and Smith lacks a put-away pitch to point to for future success. His arsenal consists of a high-80s fastball (that touches the low-90s), a solid curveball, and a changeup. Smith has pitchability, but he will need to keep proving himself. He does not have a tremendous ceiling, but he is a pretty good bet to pitch at the game's highest level.

Others: RHPs Fabio Martinez, Trevor Bell, Ryan Chaffee, and Jordan Walden; OF Chris Pettit; C Carlos Ramirez; 2B Alexia Amarista; 1B Mark Trumbo
Impact Talent: C-
Farm System Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect
Jean Segura, 2B
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Segura put himself on the map with a strong '09 campaign (.354/.395/.514 with 11 steals in 43 games), and his toolset is very intriguing. The undersized Dominican has a quick, direct swing and is a superb contact hitter. (He whiffed just 11 times in 162 ABs in the Pioneer League.) He made exceptional contact this year, though he was impatient (5.6 BB%). Segura showcased plus-plus speed before a broken finger ended his season in early August. He projects to have respectable power, although he currently sticks to line drives. Despite his mix of tools, Segura is most likely limited to second base, where he is passable. I fully expect Segura to lay waste to the Midwest League next season, and vault up prospect lists in the process.

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