State of the System: Kansas City Royals

Quick Look

It goes without saying that the Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball. This year they put together one of the worst offenses an MLB team can possibly assemble, and team brass has made some real head-scratchers (see: Betancourt, Yuniesky). KC is in the same boat as Pittsburgh and Washington: it will be several years or more until they can even think about contending. On the minor league side, the Royals' Top 10 is competitive, but they don't have a deep system, and most of their impact players are concentrated in the lower levels. In short, it just isn't pretty to be a Royals fan.

Top Prospects

Mike Montgomery, lhp

Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A

Montgomery, the second pick in my hypothetical draft, has all the ingredients to become a frontline starting pitcher. His arsenal consists of a 90-92 mph fastball that touches 95, a devastating changeup, and an inconsistent, but improving, curveball. A projectable 6-5 lefty with a good delivery, Montgomery's pitches will improve even more once he fills out and gains experience. He's on track to reach Kansas City by his 22nd birthday.

Aaron Crow, rhp

Age: 23 Level: none-Double-A

Crow was in the mix to be the #1 overall pick in the weeks leading up to the 2008 draft, but he ultimately fell to #9 and couldn't come to terms with the Nationals. The former Missouri ace then pitched in indy ball in preparation for this year's draft, when the Royals took him 12th. Crow has a plus-plus fastball, featuring velocity (92-95 mph), excellent life, and command. He also snaps off a plus slider that gives batters fits, and has made progress with his changeup. Most of the questions with Crow center around his slight build and a wrap in the back of his arm swing that impedes his command and perhaps puts more stress on his arm. If he shakes off the rust and sharpens his change, Crow will zoom up the ladder.

Wil Myers, c

Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A

Myers makes it 3 straight years that the Royals have taken a touted prep batter early in the draft (after Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer). He made a stellar first impression, tearing up Rookie-ball to the tune of .369/.427/.679 in 22 games. Myers is an athletic, versatile player with an infectious enthusiasm for the game. He shows a good arm behind the plate and will try to make it as a catcher. Even if he doesn't, his quick hands, sharp stroke, and provocative power should carry him at another position. Next year, in his first full pro season, he'll try to overcome the Midwest League doldrums that plagued his predecessors.

Tim Melville, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-Double-A

Melville showed promise, and also some rough edges, in Low A this year. The former high-profile prepster runs his fastball up to 95 mph, and works comfortably in the low-90s. He also has a close-to-plus 12-6 curveball and is refining his changeup. Melville's control needs work, but he shows a willingness to soak in instruction and adjust, so that shouldn't hamper him long-term. He also has a textbook pitcher's frame and a smooth delivery.

Danny Duffy, lhp

Age: 20 Level: High A-Triple-A

I liked Duffy coming out of high school, and he has been brilliant for 3 seasons. The California native doesn't have a true knockout pitch, but his mid-70s curveball induces strikeouts, and his 88-93 mph fastball is more than enough for a lefty. His changeup is a bit firm, but has become a decent third pitch. Some scouts are turned off by Duffy's mechanics (he throws across his body), but he has still consistently improved his strike-throwing ability, and hasn't had any injury setbacks. Duffy will move up to what should be a prospect-laden Double-A Northwest Arkansas team in 2010.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Age: 20 Level: High A-Double-A

Hosmer went 3rd overall in last year's draft. The lefty bludgeoned amateur competition and was hailed as one of the top first base prospects in the minors. His first full pro season didn't quite go to plan, though. Playing in the hitter's graveyard that is the MWL, Hosmer slumped to a .734 OPS, which was propped up mostly by walks. The bulk of that struggling was done against southpaws (.138/.205/.200) and before Hosmer got LASIK eye surgery. And in an inexplicable move by the Kansas City front office, the then-19-year-old was promoted to High A just as he was getting acclimated to Low A. Hosmer probably deserves a mulligan for the 2009 season, but 2010 will be a crucial test to see if his amateur scouting reports (which projected a .300-35 HR hitter with a chance to play the outfield) hold up.

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A

Moustakas was a high school stud--and the #2 pick in the 2007 draft--but he has endured some struggles in pro ball. Moustakas is a big third baseman, but he has the potential to avoid a switch to first base or the outfield because of his decent hands and plus-plus arm. Offensively, he has a fundamentally sound swing and awe-inspiring raw power (he holds the California HS single-season and career home run records). Moustakas is undermined by a lack of plate discipline, though; his 32-90 BB-K ratio contributed to a disappointing .250/.297/.421 line this year. He has championship-caliber upside, but I think 2010 and Double-A will go a long way in telling if Moustakas is a big leaguer or a bust.

David Lough, of

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB

Lough, the pride of Mercyhust (Pa.) College, is a gritty overachiever who has hit his way to onto the prospect radar. The former three-sport star hits for average from the left side, and is capable of 10-15 homers per year (although with 24 walks in 458 ABs, he needs a more patient approach). He put up a fantastic line of .325/.370/.496 between High A and Double-A in 2009. A good runner, Lough gets the job done in the outfield. I like Lough's all-around skills and track record, but some see him as a tweener. Then again, that's good enough to be an All-Star candidate if he doesn't change organizations.

Chris Dwyer, lhp
Age: 21 Level: Rookie-High A
The only draft-eligible freshman I've ever seen, Dwyer signed for $1.45 million out of Clemson in 2009. The 6-3, 210-pounder has the potential for two knockout pitches in his 90-94 mph fastball and hammer curveball. He has major work to do with his changeup and command, however. Dwyer will need some time to harness his stuff and become more consistent, but he has premium upside.

Jeff Bianchi, ss

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-MLB

The 2005 2nd-rounder's career took a nosedive in 2007, but he got back on track this year, going .308/.358/.435. Bianchi has a line-drive, all-fields approach at the dish. His quick hands make it successful, although his below-average power and lack of patience do their best to thwart him. He is steady up the middle, and his average speed and good instincts make him a threat to steal. Bianchi is not flashy, and he projects as a spare infielder on a championship team. In other words, he'll be the Royals' starting shortstop within 2 years.

Kila Ka'aihue, 1B

Age: 25 Level: MLB

The Royals unfathomably brought aboard Mike Jacobs before this season in spite of a glut of first basemen. Ka'aihue should have been given the chance to get some MLB ABs in, but he was relegated to a full season in Triple-A, where the Kila Monster did what he always does: draw 100 walks, flash plus power, and not much else. The huge Hawaiian could be Jack Cust with less strikeouts if he ever gets a chance.

Others: LHP John Lamb; RHPs Carlos Rosa, Louis Coleman, and Tyler Sample; C Salvador Perez

Impact Talent: B+

Farm System Depth: C-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Cole White, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Low A

The New Mexico product was taken in the 6th round of the draft this year. He has control problems to overcome (as evidenced by 20 BBs in 30 IP for the Royals this year), but his power stuff is undeniable. His fastball sits at 91-94 mph and touches 97 mph, and his breaking ball shows signs of being a plus pitch. His repertoire is rounded out with a nascent changeup that will be superfluous if he stays in the bullpen.