Intriguing Day 1 Complete

The first day of the draft has come to a close. What a fantastic night it was! There were tons of incredible picks, and also some head-scratchers. It's definitely the best day of the year, and there is more left to come. Tomorrow starts with Round 4, and Thursday will have the last 20 rounds or so. Here is the complete database of picks so far. It's obviously very, very early, but I tentatively think the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Brewers started out well, while the Phillies, Pirates, and Mets whiffed on their first couple picks. There is much more to play out tomorrow and Thursday. Here are some of the things I noticed on Day 1.

• No surprise up top. Stephen Strasburg went #1 as projected for the last 18 months, and North Carolina 1B Dustin Ackley went to Seattle at #2. I really don't think the gap is as stratospheric as it seems between the two. Strasburg is better than Ackley and probably the top prospect in baseball, but an injury could derail his career a la Mark Prior, and he needs to develop a changeup and adapt to pro hitters who have seen velocity before (albeit nothing like Strasburg's level). Ackley is has otherworldly bat control and he should be an outfielder who challenges for batting titles. It's not unfathomable that Ackley ends up better than Strasburg. Those two are far ahead of anyone else in this draft class.
• The Padres took a couple of players completely different than their organizational prototype. San Diego usually goes for college strike-throwers or polished batters with good plate discipline. They grabbed a pair of big-time high school athletes today, though, with Donavan Tate at #3 and Everett Williams at #52. That should infuse some life and upside into the system, but I think better talents were available at those spots.
• It just never ends for the Pirates. They seemed to be turning it around (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, etc.), but they made some major gaffes with their selections today. Boston College C Tony Sanchez was their first choice; he went 4th overall. Sanchez has great makeup and defensive skills, but his bat is not a guarantee despite the great year he had. I like Sanchez, but more in the 25-35 range. #4 overall? That just seems like a cost-cutting measure for the Bucs. Again. Victor Black (supplemental), Brooks Pounders (2), and Evan Chambers (3) with the next 3 picks certainly doesn't enthrall me. I guess we'll see, but my gut reaction is that the Pirates could have gotten some better value.
• A couple of Mikes (Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor and ASU RHP Mike Leake) went 7th and 8th, respectively. That is way too rich for those two. They both pitch in the 88-91 mph neighborhood and throw strikes with a curve, slider, and changeup. They are proven, polished college hurlers whom I like a ton. With a top 10 pick, though, you should probably be getting some more upside. With that said, Minor and Leake are underrated; I like their chances to be mid-rotation starters.
• I absolutely love Colorado's first-day haul. Prep pitcher Tyler Matzek was perhaps the third-best talent, and the Rockies got him at #11. The 6-3 lefty throws in the low-90s with minimal effort, and he has touched 97 recently. He has advanced secondary stuff for a high schooler (including a knee-buckling curveball) and a feel for pitching. That's outstanding for a first-round pick, but the Rockies didn't stop there. They nabbed Sacramento State OF Tim Wheeler, a middle-of-the-first-round talent, at #32; college lefty Rex Brothers, who might end up in the bullpen but works in the mid-90s with a sharp slider, in the sandwich round; Nolan Arenado, a hard-hitting prepster who could potentially move behind the plate, in the second round; and Clemson 1B Ben Paulsen, a solid hitter who could get some inflated numbers playing for the Rockies. That's an encouraging first day.
• The Diamondbacks got a fresh batch of great prospects today. That's not hard with 8 picks in the first 3 rounds. I like powerful high school corner infielders Bobby Borchering (1) and Matt Davidson (1s), all-around Notre Dame CF A.J. Pollock (1), college high-upside arms Mike Belfiore (1s) and Eric Smith (2), pummeling collegian Marc Krauss (2), and perhaps prep infielder Chris Owings (1s). I have gotten some mixed reviews on Owings, but also a Gordon Beckham comp, so I'm not giving up on that. Arizona needed an injection of talent, as their farm system has thinned with the graduation of Justin Upton, Chris Young, Max Scherzer, etc. to the majors.
• It looks like clubs were scared off by Tanner Scheppers' shoulder issues, as the former Fresno State ace lasted until #44 for the Rangers. He has arguably the second best pure stuff in the draft (mid- to high-90s fastball and biting curve), so Texas at the very least has a lot to work with in their supplemental-rounder.
• Robert Stock unexpectedly got drafted as a catcher. The 19-year-old USC junior has been extremely disappointing with the bat after being a decorated prep catcher, so I thought a team would take him as a pitcher. He looks promising on the mound. It sounds like Stock could return for his senior year. He could go very high if he continues to pitch well next year for the Trojans.
  
• Three other pitcher-or-hitter debates were solved today, two of them by the Dodgers. LA selected Baylor's Aaron Miller as a LHP (he is inexperienced on the mound, but also has serious arm strength) and Cal's Blake Smith as a RHP. There were many better options available to the Dodgers at those spots. I'm surprised how weak those picks were, though scouting director Logan White has a great track record, so he may know something that I don't. Florida prepster Mychal Givens also went as a pitcher. That's surprising, as he had good actions at short and projects as a reliever if he's a pitcher. (UPDATE: The Orioles actually botched the announcement. Givens will play short for them.) Back to the Dodgers, I liked their last two picks, prep RHP Garrett Gould and junior college RHP Brett Wallach.
• I'm surprised HS OF Randal Grichuk went in the first round. His R-R profile and relative lack of tools other than the bat apparently weren't a concern for the Angels. Tyler Skaggs, a projectable high school lefty, was who I thought they'd take in that slot. They still nabbed Skaggs with the 40th overall pick.
• Well the Phillies sure had an awful first night. Modest-ceilinged OF Kelly Dugan (who is strongly committed to Pepperdine) and lethargic OF Kyrell Hudson? You have to improve on that.
• I also wasn't blown away by the Mets' effort. Steven Matz is a live-armed lefty who can run it up to 94, but he is very raw and will take some time. I thought he'd be better served to head to Coastal Carolina for a few years. Florida Southern infielder Robbie Shields, their next pick, has some hitting ability and pop, but he's a bit underwhelming to be one of the headliners of a team's draft.
• Large-market powers Boston and New York both went slightly off the board with their first picks. The Red Sox took Puerto Rican OF Reymond Fuentes (a relative of Carlos Beltran who has game-changing speed and profiles as a starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter, but who needs to get stronger) and the Yankees popped OF Slade Heathcott, a gifted (five tools at times) but volatile prep star. It's a push as to which of the rivals got the better outfielder.
• I loved the Alex White pick for the Indians. If he can get over his injuries and inconsistency, and pitch like his postseason self more often, he'll be a great pitcher. As it is, he can light up radar guns with 91-94 mph heat that he sometimes kicks up to 96-97. He also owns a splitter and a slider, both of which can be out pitches. I am lower than others on White, since he sometimes loses command or doesn't dominate despite his electric stuff, but getting that caliber of arm at #15 is a steal.
• I also loved how the Twins stole Kyle Gibson. The Missouri righty commands an average fastball, changeup, and wicked, 82-85 mph slider. He also has room to grow into his projectable frame and start throwing harder. His recent stress fracture clouded his draft status, but if Gibson can rest up and overcome that, Minnesota got a top 10 talent near the back of the first round.
• I'm mildly disappointed by my favorite team's initial selections. The White Sox drafted OF Jared Mitchell, C Josh Phegley, OF Trayce Thompson, LHP David Holmberg, and LHP Bryan Morgado. I do like Mitchell, an LSU standout, as a high-risk, high-reward player. He draws a good share of walks, steals all kinds of bases, has great athleticism, and occasionally shows glimpses of power. He might struggle with strikeouts, but the Sox desperately need a centerfielder, and Mitchell could be a good start. The other picks aren't so great. All of Phegley's value is tied up in his bat (he is a poor defensive catcher), which isn't all that spectacular for a supplemental-rounder. Thompson has tools galore, but there's a fat chance that he'll put them all together. Holmberg sounds promising, but last I heard he was set on attending Florida. Maybe he could be good if the Sox find a way to sign him. Morgado has power stuff but constantly battles inconsistency, and was moved to the pen at Tennessee. Chicago's track record of straightening out power arms and bringing the best out of them (think Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, and Gavin Floyd) is the best hope for Morgado.
• Grant Green could be a steal at #13 for the A's. I have always been the low man on Green, and his down draft year fueled some others to come over to my point of view. He has made some careless errors at short, not taken a ton of walks, and not lived up to his home run/power expectations. Nonetheless this is a potential five-tool shortstop that Oakland is getting. If it all clicks, he's Troy Tulowitzki with a better bat. Even when he got draftitis, Green managed to hit about .370. I never thought Green was in the class of, say, Dustin Ackley, but I definitely like him at #13. Great value pick for the A's.
• As promised, the catcher position was a strong point for today. Eight backstops (3 college, 5 high school) were selected, and many more remain for tomorrow.
• The top overall remaining players for tomorrow include high schoolers Max Stassi (C), Brody Colvin (RHP), Madison Younginer (RHP), Zach Von Rosenberg (RHP), Keyvius Sampson (RHP), and Jeff Malm (1B), and collegians Sam Dyson (RHP), Chris Dwyer (LHP), Angelo Songco (OF), Brooks Raley (LHP), Ryan Jackson (SS), and Kendal Volz (RHP). There is a lot more talent to be had.
• Gotta love when the Astros, one of the lamest teams in the majors, have a bad draft. Houston had a good one last year to follow their '07 failure of epic proportions, so hopefully this year will screw up their system some more. Jiovanni Mier was a surprise first-round pick. The prep shortstop has a sound glove, but needs to improve his bat. RHP Tanner Bushue, the Stros' second-rounder, is an Illinois prepster who isn't overwhelming (88-90 mph with passable secondary stuff and some projection). 1B Telvin Nash is just a bad third-round pick, and Jonathan Meyer is good and versatile, but also inclined to head off to Cal State Fullerton. I'm hoping none of these prospects pan out for the Astros.
• Scott Boras and signability are going to have some crazy ramifications on this year's draft. Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate all are advised by the super-agent (and Tate has a two-sport scholarship to North Carolina), as are Jacob Turner (Tigers, 9th overall), Grant Green (A's, 13th overall), Andy Oliver (Tigers, 2nd round), Kentrail Davis (Brewers, supplemental), and many, many more. Aaron Crow and Matt Purke, both top 15 picks, will come with hefty price tags as well. Many negotiations will come down to the wire this year. (By the way, "the wire" is August 17 this year, as the signing date has been extended by 2 days.)
• I'll have my hypothetical draft up in a couple of weeks. Here's the first installment if you're curious. Day 2 of the draft, by the way, begins at noon ET.

Stephen Strasburg has crushing expectations to live up to

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