As many expected, the Rays took a slight step back in 2009. They are still in excellent position for the future, though. Tampa Bay has a strong rotation comprised solely of 20-somethings and young positional talent as well. They are in the toughest division in baseball, but the Rays will be in the thick of things for the foreseeable future. Their top 3 prospects make up one of the best triumvirates in baseball, and their system overall remains stocked. To be fair, I do think there is a significant drop after #5.
Top Prospects
Desmond Jennings, of
Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB
Jennings is an elite prospect, arguably one of the top three in baseball. A premium athlete with tools similar to those of Andrew McCutchen, Jennings offers both upside and aptitude. At the plate, he is patient (11.6 BB% in 2009) and makes consistent contact. The 6-2, 180-pounder also has bat speed and more power than a typical tablesetter, but he hits a lot of ground balls and his primary offensive value will come from getting on base. He is a well above-average runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts last season. Jennings, a former football player at Itawamba CC, is also a standout defensive center fielder. His jumps need fine-tuning and his arm is mediocre, but his athleticism and range promise excellent potential long-term. Jennings's track record matches his tools as well. He has compiled a .305/.391/.457 career line and thrived at the upper levels of the minors. One of the only questions observers have with Jennings is his durability. He has missed time with knee, back, and shoulder injuries. Jennings may need some more reps, but he will likely develop into a star in the MLB.
Wade Davis, rhp
Age: 24 Level: MLB
Davis has been on the prospect radar seemingly forever; he's finally primed to make good on his potential. Davis, a 2004 draftee from a Florida high school, is a classic power pitcher. His lively fastball sits at 92-94 mph and his hard curveball has sharp, late bite. Davis aggressively challenges batters. He could stand to induce more ground balls, but he compensates with ample strikeouts. His strong 6-5, 220-pound frame is useful for logging a lot of innings. Detractors point out Davis's struggles to master a consistent third pitch. He tinkers with a changeup and cutter. His command wavers and he issues too many free passes. Add it all up and you have a big league-ready mid-rotation workhorse with the potential to be much more.
Jeremy Hellickson, rhp
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB
There are a wide range of opinions on Hellickson. Frankie Piliere of MLB Fanhouse thinks he is the game's 10th-best prospect, while Project Prospect Senior Scout/pitching guru Lincoln Hamilton believes his mechanics have him headed for an injury-plagued career. (For what it's worth, Hellickson's motion looks silky smooth to me.) Hellickson's track record of success is not up for debate; the Iowa native has posted a sub-3.00 FIP and a 27.7 K% in pro ball. He has simply been a batter's nightmare since Tampa Bay drafted him in 2005. Hellickson's 2009 season was his finest to date, as he decimated the upper minors to the tune of a 2.77 FIP and a 29.6 K%.
Hellickson is notable for his command and feel for pitching, but his stuff isn't shabby. He paints the corners with his 90-93 mph fastball, his high-70s curveball is an effective pitch, and his deceptive changeup improved last season to the point where it's a plus offering. He missed two months with a shoulder sprain this year, and his slight 6-0 build adds credence to the notion that durability will be an issue. Hellickson, who doubled as a shortstop in high school, does have good athletic ability and repeats his delivery. An optimistic projection would peg him as a future #2 starter, but he will have to bide his time in Triple-A while he waits for an opening in the Rays' MLB rotation. It may require a trade for him to receive an opportunity.
Reid Brignac, ss
Age: 24 Level: MLB
Brignac was an offensive-oriented player early in his career, but the Louisiana native has worked hard and is now a very steady shortstop. He was deemed the top gloveman among International League shortstops in Baseball America's 2009 Best Tools Survey. Brignac, a 6-3, 180-pound lefthanded hitter, also has above-average power for a middle infielder. His production diminished during his two seasons in Triple-A, but the Rays still envision him being an solid offensive force. Brignac is too aggressive at the dish, however, with 2.6 career whiffs for every walk. He has a lot of pre-swing hand movement as well. The 2004 draftee's career line is .281/.337/.449. An average runner, Brignac avoids ground balls while hitting a bevy of line drives and fly balls. (Examine his batted ball tendencies here). With 100 MLB PAs to his credit, Brignac is ready to occupy a backup role for Tampa Bay this year. His minimal patience will likely preclude him from becoming a star, but Brignac will be a useful player.
Matt Moore, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A
A prolific strikeout artist, Moore is a popular pick to have a breakout 2010 campaign. Moore, a 6-2, 205-pounder drafted in 2007, flashed big-time upside in Low A in 2009, and another step forward could place him among the game's elite prospects. Moore's fastball peaks in the mid-90s and sits at 89-92 mph. His late-breaking curveball buckles knees and misses bats. Moore also incorporates a changeup, perhaps a future plus pitch. The New Mexico native paced the MiLB in Ks last season, and his career rate is an eye-popping 33.7%. Moore has a significant way to go nonetheless. He has bouts with his command and amasses enormous walk totals. Moore improved as the 2009 season progressed, but he still posted a 13.4 BB%. A potentially dominating MLB starter, Moore needs polish. He is ready to advance to the High A Florida State League.
Nick Barnese, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
Barnese's fastball checks in at 89-92 mph and touches 93-94. The California native is confident and goes after batters. Barnese limited his opponents to just 3 homers and recorded a 3.43 FIP last year, though his strikeout (19.7%) and walk (8.0%) rates weren't spectacular. The athletic 6-2, 170-pounder needs to hone his offspeed stuff, but both his breaking ball and changeup show plus potential. He could stand to command and mix his pitches more effectively. In short, a few more refinements will enable Barnese to make good on his mid-rotation potential. He's scheduled to move up to High A this season.
Alexander Torres, lhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
A piece in last season's Scott Kazmir trade, Torres combined for a 3.55 FIP between his two organizations. On the down side, his wildness showed with a 12.9 BB%. Torres is a confident, aggressive pitcher, but that many walks will catch up to him. His slight 5-10 frame also makes the Venezuela native a bullpen candidate. Despite those warts, I hold out hope. Torres has a low-90s fastball and a pair of sharp breaking balls, and he parlayed those offerings into a terrific 23.7 K% and 2.5 GO/AO last season. His pure arsenal and those stats alone make him an enticing prospect. Torres is closer to the majors than Barnese, but his control and chances of remaining in the rotation are poorer.
Luke Bailey, c
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Bailey received a $750,00 signing bonus as a 4th-rounder in the most recent draft. The Georgia high school product was slated to go even higher (he's arguably a 1st-round talent), but he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery a few months before the draft. Provided he recovers fine, Bailey could be a steal. Offensively, Bailey has both hitting ability and power potential. He had a down senior year, but still projects as a strong contributor, particularly for a catcher. The 6-0, 200-pounder is a stout defender behind the plate, with a strong arm and solid hands and footwork. Bailey will need several years to develop, but he has the tools and skills to be an above-average starting catcher.
Tim Beckham, ss
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
I truly wonder what people's perceptions of Beckham would be if the Georgia native hadn't been the #1 overall pick in the '08 draft. Beckham had a respectable season for a teenager in the South Atlantic League (he hit .275/.328/.389), but I think he is currently overrated. Beckham was touted around draft time as an athletic shortstop who would stay at the position, play strong defense, and develop into an above-average hitter. He came out in 2009 with a thicker lower half, however, and he seems to have lost some athleticism. Beckham's range diminished, and scouts think he might have to change positions. (And, for what it's worth, he committed 43 errors last season.)
I'm not convinced Beckham will hit enough to be of use at his possible landing spots (2B, 3B, OF). Aside from the pedestrian line in his first full season, he struck out too often (21.6 K%) and didn't draw enough walks (6.3 BB%). Beckham has plus bat speed and uses the opposite field well, but I didn't see enough offensive potential to get excited when I saw him play in July. Delving into his 2009 splits, there are at least a few positive signs. Though southpaws befuddled him, Beckham seemed to suppressed by his home stadium. He hit .328/.376/.494 on the road (albeit aided by a high BABIP) compared to .226/.282/.292 at home. Perhaps some of his low numbers resulted from a lackadaisical attitude also: Beckham hit .243/.299/.399 when his team had a lead, and notched it up to .301/.344/.416 when the Hot Rods were losing. Beckham won't come close to providing the most MLB value out of the pool of players from his draft class, but he's a solid prospect.
Alexander Colome, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Colome's fastball ranges from 92-97 mph. The nephew of big league hurler Jesus, Alexander also owns a hard curveball and is working on a changeup to combat lefties. Colome ripped through the New York-Penn League in 2009, posting a 2.19 FIP and 31.0 K%. He made control gains as well, but it is still his biggest weakness (10.6 BB%). The lightning-armed Dominican has ace upside, but also a lot of flameout potential.
Kyle Lobstein, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Armed with a high-80s fastball and excellent pitchability, Lobstein is not a typical high school product. Scouts aren't enamored with his velocity or nonchalant attitude on the mound (which may just be poise), but I'm fairly optimistic about the Arizona native. Lobstein posted a 2.95 FIP and 74-23 K-BB ratio over 73 IP (300 BF) last season in the New York-Penn League. He showed a solid curveball and changeup, along with his trademark control and pitching smarts. I'm not making a comparison here, but I will posit that Mark Buehrle and others prove not everyone needs premium heat. Lobstein's 6-3, 200-pound frame might mean he'll be able to add a few ticks to his fastball, but he'll never be a hard thrower. The '08 supplemental-rounder lacks knockout stuff (and a "killer instinct", some think), but has a shot to be a quality mid-rotation starter.
Others: RHPs Jason McEachern and Alex Cobb; LHP Jake McGee; OFs Todd Glaesmann and Fernando Perez; SS Hector Guevara; 3B Matt Sweeney
Impact Talent: A
Farm System Depth: B+
2010 Breakout Prospect
Wilking Rodriguez, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season
The Rays are extremely conservative with their pitching prospects, so Rodriguez may not even reach full-season ball until 2011. His power repertoire (low- to mid-90s fastball and sharp curveball), however, makes him a candidate to breeze by low-level competition--and shoot up prospect lists. Interestingly, Rodriguez handled lefthanders much better than righthanders last season. Particularly odd is that GO/AO ratio, which was 3.40 versus lefties and 0.69 against righthanders. Rodriguez isn't imposing on the mound (6-1, 160), but the native of Venezuela is praised for his mechanics and poise. He had a successful season last year, putting up a 3.25 FIP and 4.3 K-BB ratio in his first year in the U.S. Rodriguez will work on his changeup in 2010.
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