It’s been said that Sandy Alderson is expecting next year’s payroll to be low enough ($100m-$110m) to prohibit any playoff expectations and that we as fans should look to 2013 as the next competitive year.
Even if this team is rebuilding this year with hopes of competing for the playoffs in 2013, they’re still going to need to add pieces in anticipation of that run. It’s rarely the case that a team can bring together all of the assets needed to win in one offseason. The backbone of any winning team is its pitching rotation. At the center of the best teams in Mets' history ('69 Seaver, Koosman, etc. & '86 Gooden, Ojeda, Darling, etc.) are those teams' pitching staffs.
It’s assumed that the current regime is going to build a pitching staff with some of the players it already has in-house. I expect that 3 out of Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia, and Jeurys Familia will be part of the rotation in 2013. Given his status as the only LHP in that group as well as the fact that he as already enjoyed some MLB success (and flashes of brilliance as well), I’m assuming Niese is a lock for that future rotation. That would leave spots for 2 of the 4 RHP prospects in the system. I’m only assuming 2 because it’s unlikely that all 4 become quality MLB pitchers and even less likely that a NY baseball team entrusts its entire rotation to so many unproven rookies, no matter how high their talent ceilings. Given Mejia’s injury history and the fact that many scouts see Familia as an eventual reliever, I’m penciling in Harvey in Wheeler for those 2 spots.
With Harvey, Niese, and Wheeler occupying 3 rotation spots, the Mets are going to need 2 pitchers from outside the organization. Both of these acquisitions had better be of the SP1 or SP2 variety if the Mets have dreams of playing in October 2013. Harvey and Wheeler have the promise and potential of becoming F.O.R. pitchers as they mature, however neither should be expected to contribute regularly at that level so early in their careers.
At least one of these acquisitions will need to be a LHP. Why? Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Logan Morrison are just a few reasons… maybe even Bryce Harper at that point as well. If the Mets want to be competitive in their own division (let alone in the NL), their pitching will have to be able to neutralize the elite LH bats of their competitors. This is where C.J. Wilson comes in.
Over the next two offseasons, the best LHP free agents scheduled to be available are Wilson, C.C. Sabathia,, Mark Buerhle, Paul Maholm, John Danks, Cole Hamels, and Jonathan Sanchez. Sabathia will remain with the Yankees. If Buerhle leaves the White Sox, he’s said numerous times that he wants to go home to pitch for the Cardinals, a team that suddenly could use some pitching. Maholm seemed to finally break through this year, but he had a terrible August and will be coming off an injury next year. Danks is talented and has shown flashes of SP1 potential, however he is far from a sure thing. His 2012 effort will provide a clearer picture of his value. Hamels will likely re-sign in Philadelphia; if he leaves town, it won’t be for the Mets. Hamels has an obvious disdain for the Mets and would need to be vastly overpaid to move 2 hours north. I don’t see Sandy & Co. making that level of commitment to lure him to NYC. More likely, any departure would take him home to the west coast. That leaves Sanchez who, although he had an outstanding career year in 2011, looks to be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher at best.
Seeing how limited the free agent pool is going forward, if Wilson isn’t signed, that leaves the trade market to fill the void. Looking at the top 20 LHP over the last 2 years, only Dallas Braden (a shoulder injury ended his 2011) looks like he might be made available. Kershaw, Price, Lester, and Gonzalez all figure to stay with the current teams for some time. Obviously, that picture could change over the next year, however it’s just as likely that teams will seek to sign their young talents long-term as it is that additional potential trade targets will emerge. There are some top LHP pitching prospects that could be available, but acquiring one puts the Mets in the same position they are in with Harvey and Wheeler – waiting for them to emerge. Given that uncertainty, signing Wilson makes that much more sense.
Wilson’s enjoyed success pitching for a team that plays its home games in a notorious hitters’ park. That success should continue and maybe even increase with a move to the NL and Citifield. Also, although Wilson will be 31 next season, he’s only been starting for 2 seasons. He likely has a lot more innings on his arm than any other similarly-aged pitcher. Giving him a 4-5 year contract appears to be a lot safer than it might seem.
By coming to the Mets, he immediately provides them with a SP1-level pitcher to front their rotation and take the pressure off the rest of the staff. It also lessens the pressure on Johan Santana to return to form. I don’t expect Johan to return from injury as anything more than a SP2 and even that might be hoping for too much. It’s a shame that his tenure with the Mets did not work out as hoped, however it appears it will be time to turn the page from him after 2012 when his contract should be easier to move. Having C.J. Wilson already on the roster will make that an easier transition.
With regard to the budget, we don't know what the team is truly willing to spend. If Reyes is re-signed it will likely only add $7-$8 million to the payroll over his $11 million salary this year. Carlos Beltran and Fracnsico Rodriguez have been removed from the books, Castillo and Perez's money will come off, and I wouldn't expect Pelfrey to be back next year. Although the Mets won't add all of their savings back into the team, I believe there is enough room to add one additional key contributor with Reyes. Assuming Wilson is signed, that lines up a potential 2013 rotation of Wilson-Harvey-Niese-Wheeler. In total, that staff will likely cost somewhere between $20 and $25 million, leaving plenty of room in the budget to add another SP1 in the 2012-13 offseason. Let’s not completely write off 2012 either – a rotation of Wilson-Santana-Dickey(sporting a 2.85 ERA since 5/20)-Niese-Gee should be an improvement over this year’s pitching. If Santana can come back as an SP2, it would be like adding 2 free agents to the staff. Coupled with an offense that has scored the 6th most runs in the NL, the Mets could easily be in the Wild Card hunt as early as next year.
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