Affording a competitive team in 2012

Okay, so the Mets are likely going to see a drastic reduction in payroll next year. Although we don’t know at this point exactly where it will end up, I’m inclined to take Alderson at his word (100-110M) because he’s been a pretty straight shooter since his arrival. Also, given the available free agent options out there, I can’t blame the FO for not expecting the payroll to be much higher than that level. Maybe I’m guilty of putting too positive a spin on things, but maybe the FO would like to spend a bit more and would do so if they found a ‘great fit’ they’d be able to bring that player in. However, they won’t spend money just for the sake of spending it and if they miss out on their targets they won’t turn around and spend money just because it’s there. I don’t see this group going out and signing a ‘consolation’ free agent after missing out on one they want and then crowing about their willingness to spend on a winner….there won’t be any Kevin Appiers.

Since we’re considering what the budget is and how the FO might try and build a better ball club I wanted to run through what money is already spent for next year, where money can be saved, and where it can be spent.

As it stands right now, the lineup looks something like:

Ca – Thole, Nickeas

1B – Davis

2B – Turner

3B – Wright(15), Murphy

SS – Tejada

OF – Bay(16), Duda, Pagan(4+), Evans

SP – Johan(24), Peflrey(4+), Dickey(4.25), Niese, Gee

RP – Beato, Parnell, Carrasco(1.2)

Cot’s has the Mets’ contracts for 2011 listed at $142M and for 2012 at almost $67M without factoring in arbitration raises for Pelfrey, Pagan, Paulino, Buchholz, and Parnell or salaries for the Mets’ ‘under-control' players. Also included are prorated values for Bay’s and Wright’s signing bonuses as well as the option buyout for K Rod, numbers that should balance out. Their spreadsheet can be found here - http://tinyurl.com/mets2012-budget.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Mets will move on from Pelfrey, Pagan, and Paulino (I will touch on these changes in-depth in another post - briefly, an acquired pitcher will replace Pelfrey, Pagan's .700 OPS shouldn't be difficult to replace, and Nickeas will replace Paulino) and that Buchholz and Parnell will only be receiving modest raises next year. Let’s also assume that the ‘under-control’ players will all be making about $500,000. That should place the Mets’ payroll at about $75 million with 6 spots to fill. This should leave budget room to sign Jose Reyes and acquire a starting pitcher. Given his injury history, 2^nd half swoon, and the fact that I believe he wants to stay in NY, I’m assuming Reyes signs for $18M per year. That puts the payroll at $93M. I’m also assuming that the Mets can get CJ Wilson for $18M per as well. Although he’s been strong, his track record is very short and he is over the age of 30. I don’t see him getting a Cliff Lee-type deal. That puts the payroll at $111 Million for 2012 with 4 spots to fill. In total, those 3 back-up roles and 1 starting CF will likely cost between $2 and $5 million. That would push the payroll up to $113-116 million on the year. I realize that it’s a few million over the $110 mark, however it’s not over by much. If ownership wants fans to keep coming to the ballpark they’re going to have to put a winning team on the field. They need to be more concerned about adding productive ballplayers than they are about nickel and diming on the payroll. The best way to do that next year is to re-sign Reyes, save money on Pelfrey, Pagan, and Paulino, and reinvest that money in a pitcher.