Thrice As Nice- A Rosh Hoshanah Tale From Not Another New England Sports Blog!

Because I'm not the most ambitious person in the world to start off with- plus I'll be even further out in the boonies than usual over the next couple of days- I started out thinking I'd do something similar to my blog entry last year for the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hoshanah. Basically some generic wishes peppered with some olive drab clad Rule 5-bait of the Israeli persuasion.

But while doing a search for some IDF eye candy (and lets face it, they are to women in uniform what Brazilians are to female soccer fans), I came across the tale of the very lovely and unique Orbaum Triplets, pictured above.

"The concept of 'one for all and all for one' can get pretty absurd," the late Jerusalem Post staffer and columnist Sam Orbaum wrote about his identical triplet daughters 14 years ago.

Orbaum, who passed away in 2002 at the age of 46, went on in the column, entitled "The threeness of it all," to describe life as a father of identical triplets.

Not only did he sometimes mix them up, Orbaum wrote in his well-known wry, comic style, but he was also constantly impressed by their tight bond - when for example they stood up for one another in fights in the school sandbox.

The three blond 19-year-old sisters are still sticking up for one another, although this time not on the playground but in the IAF, in which they all enlisted a few months ago, making history.

While all three are in khaki-colored air force uniforms, they don't serve together. Odelia, the oldest (born a minute before her two sisters), serves as a control officer in the IAF's underground command-and-control center in the Kirya in Tel Aviv; Nomi is an air traffic control officer at the IAF's Palmahim Base; and Donna is currently in training for a different IAF position near Herzliya.

"Even though we are, in a sense, still together since we are all in the IAF, it was still difficult to split up to different positions and offices," said Odelia.

The sisters say that they think of themselves as one person, which might not make sense - until one sees how they complete one another's sentences or give the same answers during the interview.

Since elementary school the three have been together, going on to the same high school in Jerusalem's Ramot neighborhood and then to the same premilitary academy in the Jordan Valley.

It was there that the triplets decided to enlist in the IDF and not do national service like most of their female classmates.

"As religious girls we were confused about what to do," said Nomi. "But [we] decided to enlist into the IDF since national service, like working in an old age home, is something we can always do after our military service, but military service is right now. [It's] the only time we can do it and is what characterizes the state."

Once they made their decision, all they had left was to find fulfilling jobs in the IDF. Donna said she thought about trying out for the pilot's course; Nomi thought at one point about joining the Ground Forces Command and becoming an infantry instructor.

In the end, they all made their way to the air force, albeit on different bases.

"We didn't all decide to joint the IAF," explained Odelia. "That is just how it worked out."

Nomi, the self-declared "controlling" sister, said that becoming an air traffic controller fit in very well with her personality.

"I usually make the decisions so becoming an air traffic controller was natural," she said.

While the three are not currently together, they all plan on becoming officers and hope to be in the same course at the Bahad 1 Officer Training School near Mitzpe Ramon in a few months.

If that doesn't work out, there's always the post-IDF trip overseas, which they have no doubt they will make together.

The girls also don't doubt that their father would have supported their decision to join the army. When Sam came to Israel he tried to enlist, they said, but he was exempted on medical grounds.

"He supported us in everything we did until he passed away when we were 12," Donna said. "This is the seventh year since he passed away and I think about him all the time and see his smile and know that he would have been proud of us."

The story is from late 2009, so Odelia, Kirya and Nomi are probably 21 and could very well be junior officers by now if they followed through on attending the Officer Training School together.

Draft 2012: - Clate Schmidt, Christian Walker, Brandon Kuter, Robert Alexander, Chris Harvey

9-26-11: - http://mlbdraftguide.com/1/2011/09/19/clate-scmidt-2012-draft-profile -

Player:  Clate Schmidt

 Position:  RHP/SS

 School:  Allatoona HS, GA

 Date of Birth:  12/10/1993

 Height/Weight:  6’2/175

 Bats/Throws:  S/R

 Class Of:  2012

 Committed To:  Clemson

Scouting Report:

Clate Schmidt is one of the fastest rising pitchers eligible for the 2012 draft.  A legitimate prospect at both shortstop and pitcher, Schmidt’s performance on the mound over the summer has him pegged as a pitcher at the next level.

Schmidt’s fastball sits comfortably from 92-94 and has been as high as 96.  His low 80′s curveball shows true plus potential.

Schmidt has a low 3/4 arm slot with an extremely fast arm.  His delivery does have a bit of effort in it.

The son of a marine, Schmidt has very good work ethic and is a good bet to make the most of his talent.

9-21-11: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6253 – David Rawnsley:  I'm a big fan of Christian Walker and have been since he was a junior in high school. He's not the type who will get mentioned at the top of the draft as a 1B like C.J. Cron (Utah) did this year but I think he's in the next tier....2nd/3rd round.....if he hits like he's proven he can and stays healthy.

9-21-11: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6253 – How high can/will George Mason RHP Brandon Kuter go in the 2012 draft?  - I think a lot of that is dependent on how he does against better competition than he faced at the Atlantic League this past summer. Kuter is a big kid at 6-foot-7, 220 pounds, however he hasn't been consistent at GMU. Still, he's a guy that was 92-94 with his fastball this summer with a good slider. A definite guy that could be on the move should he establish some consistency.

9-1-11: - http://xmlbscout.angelfire.com   - Robert Alexander, Holy Trinity HS, Bronx NY, 6'2 200, loose with high leg kick delivery from 3/4 slot, changes speeds well, threw mid to upper 80's, most fb were 86 with late life middle out vs RHH and snapping cb that has downer action and straight change he teased hitters with first night out, was hit hard in medal round. Needs to have command and control at all times, will not be a power arm, but more of a finess guy like Mark Buerhle, has shot to be a good one in time. 2012 grad, 13-20 round type from cold weather area. Good attitude and smart kid.

9-27-11: - http://www.maxpreps.com/news/CjudeOgLEeC-rAAmVebEWg/chris-harvey-skips-senior-year-of-high-school-to-play-college-baseball.htm - It's a different world Christopher Harvey finds himself in today. The massive 6-foot-6, 210-pound all-American catcher out of Germantown Academy (Fort Washington, Pa.) has a lot of time to sort through, a schedule to keep — on his own — and no one hovering to remind him about studying. It's what any typical college freshman athlete endures. The major difference is that Harvey should be enjoying his senior year at Germantown Academy, biding his time and working towards being drafted in next June's Major League Baseball Amateur Draft.

US Born Al Qaeda Cleric Killed in Arabian Peninsula Drone Airstrike

The good news is that you still get your virgins, Anwar. The bad news is that all 72 of them look like Michael Moore.

Anwar al-Awlaki, Al Qaeda's internet savvy, New Mexico-born propagaindist was killed in Yemen on Friday when what's believed to be a CIA drone fired a missile on a convoy.

Fluent in English, al-Awlaki is said to have inspired numerous attacks against American and Western targets, including the failed Christmas 2009 underwear bomber over Detroit, an October 2010 plot to bring down aircraft using explosive parcels. The Islamic cleric is said to have corresponded via e-mail with Nidal Hasan prior to his November 2009 Fort Hood murder spree and Faisal Shahzad's botched May 2010 attempt to set off a car bomb in New York City's Times Square.

Also in may 2010, a 21 year old unemployed woman named Roshonara Choudharay who said she was inspired by al-Awlaki's online sermons and articles stabbed Labour MP Stephen Timms at the Beckton Globe library.

Beginning in 2000, al-Awlaki preached in a San Diego area mosque where he met two parishoners who were later identified as Khalid al-Midar and Nawaf al-Hamzi- two of the 9/11 hijackers. The following year, al-Awlaki moved to northern Virginia before heading back to Yemen by way of London in 2002. From Yemen's tribal controlled hinterlands, al-Awlaki delivered sermons and oversaw recruitment for Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninusla, escaping a similar attempt on his life in May of this year.

MLB Draft Guide: - Top 35 Pitchers For The 2012 Draft

MLB Draft Guide: - Top 35 Pitchers For The 2012 Draft

 1.Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

 2.Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Tampa Jesuit (FL)

 3.Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

 4.Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU

 5.Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake...   

 35.DJ Baxendale, RHP, Arkansas

http://mlbdraftguide.com/1

I May Be Wrong, But…

1. I sadly hope that Adam Rubin is correct about Angel Pagan leaving. I have enjoyed Pagan during the time he has been a Met, but I’m committed to the 2013-2014 plan and he just isn’t in it. I have been more disappointed in his defensive…err… skills this season and he just isn’t the center fielder that is needed to cover CitiField. There’s no reason to spend $5mil in 2012 on him when the solution to this problem is either still in the pipeline (Matt den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis) or on the 2013 free agent list (Michael Bourn, Matt Kemp, B.J. Upton). First, I would play Nick Evans somewhere on a winter ball team and cut a deal with them to play him only in CF. After that doesn’t work, go sign someone in the $2-3mil range to hold the fort down for one year, while Evans stays up as a utility OF/3B/1B.

2. As I understand it… and feel free to correct me if I’m wrong… but the Madoff –mess judge has ruled that the MAXIMUM amount that the Mets could owe those that are suing, is $83mil, which was based on profits over a 2-year period. I assume that could also be paid over a 2-year period, which would be $41.5mil per year. Continuing on this, I also assume that both parties could settle this right now for around $30mil a year for 2-years. So, if Cot says the 2011 payroll was #143mil, then the team could operate 2012 and 2013 at $110mil and be done with this by 2014. Kewl… oh… just read they could owe close to $340mil… err… never mind.

3. Wednesday might have been the most outstanding night of baseball… ever.  Four teams trying to get in the playoffs and most of them go into extra innings… are you kidding me? There is no way to beat what we watched late into Thursday morning. This is why we watch baseball. This is why some of us write about it. Unbelievable.

4. Should the Mets try and resign 40-year old Miquel Batista? I mean, a two-hit shutout to finish the season? I can’t see anyone giving him a multi-year deal so why not bring him back for the 2012 season while the kids mature down in Buffalo?

5. We’ve added another great writer here at Mack’s Mets. Frank Gray, of The Bleacher Report, has joined us and will start off by posting twice a week, Monday and Thursday, at 2pm EST. Our goal here is to continue to bring you the best information on the New York Mets, by the best independent writers out there on the Internet. Welcome Frank.

Who will win that big, gold trophy with all the flags around it?

By Mike Moritz

What happened in Tampa Bay? And how about Baltimore? And how about Houston? And what about Atlanta?

Jesus Fuck! The last night of the regular season solidified the fact that baseball is the craziest, most absurd and weirdest sport in the world.

But I'm not here to talk about any of those things. Sure, they were crazy, indeed. But I rather spend this time before the playoffs start to attack the blogosphere with some analyzing on who the best playoff team is.

But first, I have some explaining to do. In the book Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything you know about the Game is Wrong (a book that my friends and I refer to as "the bible"), there is a chapter called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?" This chapter explains what kind of teams are well equipped for the playoffs. Nate Silverman and Dayn Perry, the authors of this specific chapter, did a little research. I'll save you the time and only put a little segment of the chapter:

"After any number of permutations of the twenty-six variables in our database, we identified three factors that have the most fundamental and direct relationship with Playoff Success Points. The variables are as follows: 

• Closer WXRL (Wins Expected over Replacement Level; in other words, WAR) 
• Pitcher strikeout rate 

•  FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average; in other words, UZR)

Striking batters out, catching the ball, and having a good closer wins championships. It makes a good deal of sense why each of these variables is so important in the postseason."

Okay, so while you that in mind, let me explain the thing about offence in the playoffs. Baseball Between the Numbers often uses a way of telling if something has some sort of correlation with something else. This system is on a scale of -1 to 1. When something is calculated and comes out to 1, that means that when something happens to X, something also happens to Y. When you get to -1, that means that there is an inverse relationship (so when something happens to X, something of the opposite variety happens to Y). When you come to a 0, that means that the two things have have no correlation. You can also get a decimal, for example, if you get .29, that means that there is relativity small correlation. Hopefully you get my rift.

So going back to what "the bible" proved, they found that runs scored in the regular season compared to the postseason has a correlation of 0, yes, straight up ZERO, in other words, no correlation. They also found that batting average, ISO, and walk rates for hitters have a .04, .01, .02 correlation, respectively, again, essentially ZERO correlation. And just to back up what the book explained in the quote that you read, I will now list the correlations between starting pitching WAR, closer WAR and defense UZR:

Strike out rate for starting pitchers: .14
WAR for closer: .22
Defense UZR: .16

So looking at these three numbers, they don't look to convincing because the highest correlation we have is .22, which is, as we know by now, a small correlation. They key here is that we must put them all together in order to get a well suited play off team. Well, if you know math, then you would know that .22+.16+.14=.52. So together, these factors have a .52 correlation with winning a championship, just like the book stated. (If you do not believe my numbers, find the book yourself and read the chapter, page 352.) The .52 correlation obviously is not going to be a 100% lock for the team to win the World Series because playoffs consist of such small sample sizes, and we know that sample sizes can be crazy enough to make Sam Fuld a legend. There is a difference between a good regular season team (2006 Yankees) and a good playoff team (2010 Giants) Basically, if you want the best chance at winning, your team should focus on those three things. We need to look no further than 2010's World Series champion San Fransico Giants.The Giants had an 8.57 K/9 from their starters in the regular season that were on the playoff roster. The closer, Brian Wilson, was clearly elite: 1.81 ERA, 2.19 FIP and 2.6 WAR in 74.2 innings. And the defense? Their 64.7 UZR led all of baseball last year.

Now let's put all these numbers to work. So what about this year? What team has the most suitable playoff squad of 2011?

So we will start in Arizona, where the Diamondbacks sport an MLB best 60.2 UZR. The starting rotation on the other hand, has a 6.39 K/9, which is far below the 7.13 K/9 MLB average. The closer J.J. Putz has a 1.7 WAR, that is the forth best among all playoff closers. The defense is there, for sure, but there is a huge flaw in the pitching with the strike outs and Putz isn't the best October closer, but merely average. They are not my team.

Next, we'll do the New York Yankees. The Yankees hold the 7th best UZR in baseball, with 22.9. It was just announced that Bartolo Colon will be left of the roster and A.J. Burnett will be in the bullpen. Not including Colon or Burnett, the Yankees rotation have a 6.95 K/9, again, below the 7.13 mark for the league. As for the closer, they obviously have Mariano, who by the way, has a 2.5 WAR which the best of all the postseason closers this year. Maybe the Yanks.

Next up: Texas Rangers. The Rangers have the 6th best UZR in baseball: 30.6. So that's good. Colby Lewis is probably going to be the odd man out on this one, sorry Colby. The Rangers starting pitching has a 7.2 K/9, a little better than average. Neftali Feliz , .9 WAR, is not the same pitcher he was last year; his strike outs dropped by almost 2 and his walk rate spike by almost 2. His BABIP was very low this year but his peripherals won't hold. He's risky. But I still think the Rangers are a good bet.

Next: Detroit Tigers. Detroit's defense is decent. UZR dislikes them enough for -2, 14th in baseball. The pitching on the other hand is great: 7.54 K/9. Jose Valverde led baseball in saves with 49 but has a 1 WAR, 6th best among playoff closers. I don't see the Tigers winning.

Next: Tampa Bay Rays. The UZR was 2nd best in the Bigs with 50.3. The Rays have announced that they will be leaving Jeff Nieman off of the ALDS roster and that Matt Moore will be starting Game 1 (Isn't baseball great like that?). I have used Moore's strike out numbers from the minors this year to be included in the K/9. With that said, the Rays have an 8.48 K/9 but again, since Moore's numbers were gaudy in the minors, you might have to take a little bit off of that number. Still amazing though.  Kyle Farnsworth has .9 WAR, the worst out of all of 'em. That's a problem, but the pitching is so incredible and the defense is so good that I can see them making a World Series appearance, for sure.

Next: Phillies. Bad defense; the UZR is -15.5 and is 22nd in baseball. But the pitching, o my: 8.17 K/9. Easily the best in October. And Ryan Madson has the third most WAR at 1.8. The pitching is so dominate that they actually have a good chance despite horrible defense.

Next: Brewers. So even though the Brewers have Prince Fielder and Yuniesky Betancourt on the defense, they still managed to rack up 10.2 UZR, 11th in baseball. It looks like they are going to leave out Chris Narveson out of the rotation. And the rotation has a great 7.95 K/9. John Axford has the second most WAR of all postseason pitchers, 1.9. These guys seem to have a great chance; good defense, great pitching and a great closer.

Finally: the Cardinals. The defense is so bad, it's funny. 4th worst UZR (-30.8) in baseball. And the pitching is almost as bad, the 6.29 K/9 is the worst of all the playoff teams. And the closer? Jason Motte has been the closer of late so I'll go with him as the closer for the playoffs. His 1.6 WAR is 5th. There is no way the Cards are getting out of the first round and with all do respect, they are probably the worst playoff team this year. But hey, the playoffs are very crazy.

And in order to quantify exactly how good these teams are for the postseason, I came up with a simple math formula. I call this formula Playoff Quality by Correlation Weighted (or: PQCW). There are three different formulas because of the three different correlations but basically it's like this:

PQCW= average of correlation X stat

NOTE: You must perform this equation three times and use all three stats (K/9, Closer WAR, and UZR).You must then add up all three numbers for in order to get your final PQCW. The average correlation is .17. Think of this kind of like a point system.

I would like to say that this is probably completely wrong but I am just trying to get a sense of what each teams chances are in the postseason.

So let's find out who has the best PQCW.

Arizona: Pitching: .17 X 6.39= 1.09
              Closer: .17 X 1.7= .289
              Defense: .17 X 60.2=10.23
Total: 11.609. So Arizona's PQCW is 11.609.

Yankees: Pitching: .17 X 6.95= 1.18
               Closer: .17 X 2.5= .425
               Defense: .17 X 22.9= 3.89
Total PQCW: 2.73

Texas: 1.22
           .15
           5.20
PQCW: 6.57

Tigers: 1.28
           .17 (.17 X 1)
           -.34
PQCW: 1.11

Rays: 1.44
           .15
           8.55
PQCW: 10.14

Phillies: 1.39
              .306
              -2.64
PQCW: -0.94

Brewers: 1.35
                .32
                1.73
PQCW: 3.4

Cardinals: 1.07
                  .27
                  -5.2
PQCW: -3.86

 So there you have it. And yes, I do think that it is surprising that PQCW does not like the Phillies very much and loves the D-Backs but as I said before, this could be completely wrong.

The playoffs are a crazy time. Absurd things happen. You can't stop it but that is why baseball is such a crazy sport.

Personally, I predict the Phillies versus the Rays, a rematch of 2008 with the same result: Phillies win, only this time, I predict in seven games.

And so, LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

(Statistics in courtesy of: fangraphs.com)

Baseball: - Klout on Moneyball, Death of a Champion, 2012 SF Giants, The Best of Baseball, Drew Cumberland

Hey there Sports fans! To celebrate the launch of Moneyball, aka the 1st movie about Brad Pitt and Statistics, we decided it might be swell to grab some hunks of data on whether this whole money isn’t speech wins thing holds true since everybody who can stomach sports writing now knows the secrets of Beane and Jonah Hill’s mad science. Unfortunately, the Oakland A’s have not been able to succeed in games or with their Klout Score this season, despite being just 22 minutes from the epicenter of influence: Klout HQ. However, there is only one other team with more wins that spends less money on salary and those guys are from Canada – land of Polar Bears and free healthcare – so it’s not really a fair comparison. - http://corp.klout.com/blog/2011/09/moneyball-klout-cash-and-baseball

    Barring some late inning heroics, Manchester Community College will not field a baseball team this season. The Cougars, four-time defending Region 21 champions who finished third at the NJCAA Division III World Series last May, are one of the many victims of a cut of about $1 million in state aid the community college received earlier this year. President Gena Glickman announced the elimination of the school’s baseball program in an email to faculty and staff over the summer; Manchester Community College was the only community college in the state that still offered the sport. - http://ellington-somers.patch.com/articles/mcc-baseball-team-a-victim-of-its-own-success-d4708c6c

Signs of hope: The Giants once again featured championship-caliber pitching, as the staff’s 3.89 Fair Run Average trailed only the Phillies’ 3.74. Their fielders finished with a .717 Defensive Efficiency, the fourth-best figure in the big leagues, though they may have enjoyed easier opportunities than most thanks to the hurlers’ knack for inducing weak contact—Matt Cain, for one, has recorded a .265 BABIP this season and boasts a .269 lifetime mark in over 1300 innings. Cain and Tim Lincecum’s predictably superlative run prevention has been reinforced by unlikely reclamation project Ryan Vogelsong, who has amassed nearly three wins despite having given all appearances of bidding the big leagues adieu after 2006, Madison Bumgarner, the 21-year-old lefty who has not only avoided a sophomore slump but has come within a fraction of a win of being the Giants’ best pitcher according to WARP (4.7), and a strong bullpen highlighted by setup men Sergio Romo (who has struck out 58 of the 119 righties he’s faced, against only four walks) and Santiago Casilla. Pablo Sandoval recovered from a down year to outdo his 2009 season on a rate basis, though he missed a month and a half at midseason with right wrist surgery and gained back much of the weight he’d shed over the offseason as the campaign wore on. - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15177

But last night we saw the best of baseball. Collapses took place that will be talked about for a long time, three decisive games were lost in either the ninth or extra innings, and two teams that were so far on the fringe that yours truly was hard pressed a month ago to continue including them in my columns as contenders are improbable postseason contestants. A word about spoilers. For anyone among you who might be a casual fan, and who thinks that only teams in the playoffs can get excited at the end of a season, take a look at the Orioles' reaction last night when they put the final nail in the Red Sox' coffin, which was then pounded into place later by the Rays. Last night showed baseball at its best. Fans in Atlanta and Boston won't want to hear that, and may not want to watch another game until spring training or until next April. But when everything clicks into place on the final day and playoff possibilities and matchups change multiple times in one night -- there is just nothing better. - http://cleveland.sbnation.com/cleveland-indians/2011/9/29/2457523/baseball-at-its-best

The truth is that Cumberland, the 46th overall Draft pick in 2007, a player who only five months ago figured prominently in the Padres' plans, should be playing baseball, tackling the game the only way he ever has. "With his hair on fire," said Randy Smith, San Diego's director of player development. Instead, Cumberland's playing career, barring an unforeseen medical miracle, is over, as he has been diagnosed with a rare neurological condition called bilateral vestibulopathy, in which the portions of both inner ears that control balance are damaged. The condition, coupled with a history of concussions as an amateur then as a professional, have led to debilitating migraine headaches as well as vision and balance problems his entire life. - http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110817&content_id=23335214&vkey=news_sd&c_id=sd

2012 25-man

Well, the season is over and I guess it is time to start working on my 25-man squad for next season.

Oh, you think this is too early? Trust me, I’m probably far behind what the board already looks like in Flushing.

For me, these are the stone cold, locked down, mofo, members of next year’s team:

1B – Ike Davis – I’m approaching this article as if everyone in the system is healthy come April.  The Mets have a bunch of problems to solve in the next couple of seasons and first base isn’t one of them. Davis is a legit star of the game and will be around for 5+ seasons. I only hope his decision not to have surgery was the correct one.

IF – Ruben Tejada – We have to keep Tejada’s position vague until the whole Reyes dram is done with.  He is no longer a prospect and has nothing to prove to either me or Terry Collins. I worried over the years tat he was moved too fast, but he was just another of those young GCL kids that continue to be chosen mid-season to fill in at St. Lucie while someone else heals. Remember, these two teams share the same complex and it’s a lot cheaper just to scream across the diamond that fly someone in from Savannah. Sometimes, like OF Gilbert Gomez this season, prove they can hold their own at a level they shouldn’t be ready to play. That’s how Tejada’s Met career took off.

3B – David Wright – I believe we just witnessed the worst season David Wright will ever have as a professional baseball players. He’s not only this generation’s Tom Seaver, but he’s Chipper Jones as well. He can play on my team until he drops dead.

LF – Jason Bay – there’s no reason for any opinion here regarding whether or not he deserves this slot. The fact is he is being paid big bucks and the contract is unbreakable. Do not play him in centerfield and do not sit him on the bench. Right now, he’s the best outfielder in the system.

RF – Lucas Duda a surefire starter next year based on both his 2011 performance but also due to the current lack of quality outfielders in the pipeline. This was supposed to be the Fernando Martinez-Carlos Gomez-Lastings Milledge era. Duda will continue to make most of us hold our breath when a ball is hit his way, but we’ll all learn to live with that because of his bat. And, his bat is a big one. He’ll hold down right, allowing the Mets to work on solving centerfield.

Utility – Justin Turner – this generation’s Rod Kanehl,  Justin was one of the league leaders in BA w/RISP.  I can’t see him being a starter under any scenario, but what a great guy to have on your team.  I can count on one hand how many times I thought he did something wrong this past season.

Utility – Nick Evans – I gave up on this guy a number of times, but, like Lucas Duda, he has proven this season that everyone deserves a season to prove their value. I know for a fact that Terry Collins loves him about as much as Jerry Manuel didn’t. TC thinks he’s potentially a 25/100 guy, but he’s going to have to wait until Bay’s contract runs out to prove that. Until then, he’s the perfect utility guy that can pay both corner outfield positions, third, and first.

SP – Johan Santana – like Jason Bay, I’m not going to go into whether Santana deserves to be the ace in 2012. He’s being paid an ungodly amount of money in 2012 to pitch for the Mets, and if you’re going to pitch him, make him your ace in an off year. The Mets have only one pitcher in the system, Akeel Morris, that projects out as an ace and he’s years away. There are better pitchers out there than the 2012 version of Santana, but the good news is he isn’t Ollie either.

SP – Jon Niese – I thought that Niese had one of the unluckiest years for a starter in 2011. I love this guys stuff and he deserves to be sandwiched between better pitchers than the 2011 Mets had. Jon is the one rotation pitcher that I think will still be around in 2014. He’s a big keeper on my team.

SP – R A Dickey – another player under contract for the 2012 season, even though he definitely earned a spot back regardless. What will be interesting will be if he keeps pitching this well into the following season. Technically, a screw-baller could be around for awhile. Wouldn’t you love to have the luxury to have him as your 7^th reliever?

RP – Manny Acosta – It’s funny. I consider the Mets pen in a mess, yet I have three returning here. There’s a good chance that he will be the opening day closer, especially if the Mets chose to use Jenrry Mejia in this role later on in the season. This was a great pickup for basically nothing.

RP – Pedro Beato – Do not be concerned with the way Beato finished the season. This is another great decision by Sandy Alderson and is a perfect 7^th or 8^th inning guy.

RP – Tim Byrdak – the Mets recently resigned him for the 2012 season, which was a good move. One of the few relievers that did very little wrong.

That’s where I am right now. 13 players is a lot at this point in the off-season.

I know that two things have to happen before this team can be determined. One, Jose Reyes has to decide where he’s playing and, two, some judge has to rule on the Madoff lawsuit. Until then, I would roll the dice on a few things;

                1. I would not offer arbitration to either Angel Pagan or Mike Pelfrey. I’m playing for 2013.

2. I’d shop Daniel Murphy to an AL team.

3. I’d also shop Bobby Parnell, who many teams keep calling about.

4. I’d try and sign OF Scott Hairston to a one-year deal.

5. I would make room for Tim Teufel on my coaching staff.

6. I’d offer P Chris Young a one-year contract with a second year with a team opt-out option.

7. I would put together a four player offer for one of Cincinnati’s prospect catchers. Players like Wilmer Flores, Dillon Gee, Chris Schwinden, Darin Gorski, Angel Cuan, Jordany Valdespin, Jefry Marte, Aderlin Rodriguez, Cesar Puello, Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

The Top 25: Ike Davis

We all like Ike, It's hard not to like a guy who plays hard and gets results. My dreams of a post-season in 2011 died long before the season was decided. When Ike Davis got hurt, and we KNEW it was bad. I knew that the Mets no longer had enough in the team for a post-season ANYTHING (Beltran or no).

What's To Like?:

POWER - Do you know what Ike Davis was slugging through all of April? (.600) THAT IS INSANE! Now... even in a smaller Citi Field this guy is going to hit a few homers. More importantly he's going to hit a LOT of doubles (Not triples... I've seen him run). Homers and doubles lead to RBIs and that is EXACTLY what I want from a #4 hitter and a first baseman.

DEFENSE - Robbed of a Gold Glove in 2010 (Check the UZR), Davis is among the premier talents field his position. Famous for his tumbling catches into the dugout, Davis' glove would have likely earned the Mets a few extra wins by itself in 2011.

What's Not To Like?:

SPEED - He has none.

INJURY - I don't fault Davis for getting hurt but I fault the Mets for the indecisive nature of dealing with it. The Mets NEED to be more sure about how they deal with players who get hurt. When you don't act decisively... players stay hurt LONGER.

Random and Awesome:

PITCHING - Davis was a pitcher in his past and has said that he would be capable and willing to come in during an extra-inning game. I'm told he can bring some heat (perhaps not as much as Desi Relaford).

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B

The Keepers: - #86 - P - Rafael Montero

86.     Rafael Montero:

6-4-11: - Somebody named Rafael Montero pitched five perfect innings for the DSL1 team last night, striking out six. I don’t have anything on him other than the fact he is a 6-0 righty and is 20-years old. That’s two starts so far this year: 1.13, 1-ER, 8.0-IP, 12-K. We’ll keep an eye on him.

7-20-11: - Please welcome our newest member of the “Keepers” list. Montero started this year with the DSL team, where he went 1-1, 1.00, in four starts. Now, he’s pitching for the GCL team and he is 1-1, 1.96, after five games, three starts. For the year combined, he’s got 44-K and only 6-BB in 41.0-IP. We need to keep an eye on this 6-0 right handed 20-year old.

8-9-11: - From Paul DePodesta - There’s one who is already over here in the States and has moved past the GCL and is into Kingsport. Rafael Montero is a right-handed pitcher. He’s a little older. He’s 20 already and I think was just about 20 or already 20 when we signed him. But he has a good arm, a good feel and it’s a legitimate three-pitch mix. It’s low- to mid-90s. Good body. Good command. He’s an interesting package

8-23-11: - DSL 2011 End of Season Wrap-Up - http://www.nyfuturestars.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=35808&sid=e8719b8eddffd9bc033d0ab708d8aff5  - Rafael Montero: 20 year old SP, started out great in the DSL. 4 starts, 18 IP, 7 H, 2 R/ER, 0 BB: 20 K - He then moved on to the GCL where in 7 games (4 starts) he produced a 1.45 ERA, with 32 K and just 6 BB in 31 innings - That was good enough to bump him to Kingsport where he has since struggled, with a 6.00 ERA in 3 starts, where his usual good BB:K ratio now 6 BB:5 K in 12 innings

8-28-11: - Stock Up – SP Rafael Montero – We recently added Montero to a prominent position on “The Keepers” list, and last night’s outing proved why that was done: 5.0-IP, 0-R, 4-H, 4-K, 0-BB. His stats for the season are: 7-G, 1-2, 1.45, 1.09, 32-K, 31.0-IP, 6-BB, .308-BABIP, 2.41-FIP.

9-23-11: - http://www.brooklyncyclones.com/team/players/index.html?player_id=182  -

Enters his first season in the Mets organization ... Began 2011 with the DSL Mets (R), compiling a 1-1 record with a 1.00 ERA in four starts. Also recorded 20 strikeouts in 18.0 innings of work ... Appeared in seven games for the GCL Mets (R), making four starts and finishing with a 1-2 record and a 1.45 ERA ... Earned his first win in the Gulf Coast League vs. the GCL Cardinals 07/14/11.  In the victory, Montero scattered four hits, struck out nine, and allowed just one unearned run in 6.0 strong innings of work ... Made four starts for the Kingsport Mets (R), going 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA ... Signed with the New York Mets as an non-drafted free agent.

9-23-11: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com  - Baseball America is into their league-by-league top 20 lists and has named Mets RHP Rafael Montero the #20 prospect in the GCL. Ben Badler wrote this about Montero: Montero’s best pitch is his fastball, which sits at 90-93 mph and touches 95 with late hop, making it tough for hitters to pick up. His fastball plays up because his command of the pitch was so advanced for Rookie ball. He’ll need to improve his secondary pitches, a fringy changeup and a below-average breaking ball, though he throws them both for strikes.

9-23-11: - Hyde feels that Montero is old enough, and bold enough, to pitch Savannah next spring. I have him in Brooklyn, but, in this case, I hope Toby is right, but I’d rather he stay in extended camp to improve his secondary pitches rather than blow up on paper. We’ll see.

Draft 2012: - Deven Marrero, Jared Price, Steve Nyisztor, Toney Dimartino, Ty Blach

9-27-11: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6271 -   DEVEN MARRERO, ss, Cotuit Kettleers (Arizona State/JR in 2012) -  SCOUTING PROFILE: Marrero is a superior prospect in all phases of his game, and a leading candidate to be the first player drafted in 2012. The one area where he truly stands out is on defense, and he is in a league of his own as a college shortstop. Scouts say he is ready-made to play defensively in the big leagues, and have little reservation in extolling him as a future Gold-Glover. Marrero has exceptional rhythm in the field, no matter what the play or where a throw originates. He has a knack for instinctively reading ground balls and getting his glove into the right position, regardless of the hop, and is also adept at shifting his feet to make a throw from any angle. His arm is both strong and extremely accurate, and he excels at making plays from the hole. If anything, he can make shortstop look a little too easy, at times, and will lose focus occasionally and overcharge some balls, which accounted for most of the nine errors he committed in the 12 games he played this summer for Cotuit. While his ability to play shortstop has never been questioned, the 6-foot-1, 170-pound Marrero continues to open eyes with his bat. He hit .326-0-5 in his brief time on the Cape, which he did in two instalments sandwiched around his tenure as the starting shortstop for USA Baseball’s college national team, where he hit .322-0-14, and led that squad in hits, doubles, RBIs and stolen bases. In contrast to his summer showing at the plate, Marrero hit .315-2-20 with the new BBCOR bats during his sophomore year at Arizona State, and scouts may have already come to the conclusion that he is one of those players who is a better hitter with wood. He has excellent hitter’s hands, and the bat speed to turn around a high-velocity fastball. His best attribute as a hitter, though, is his ability to drive balls sharply to the opposite field. He also has sound strike-zone management. The area where Marrero showed his greatest improvement this summer came in his base running. He has average speed but emerged as an above-average base stealer because of his superior instincts. Marrero was one of the top prospects in the Cape Cod League a year ago, when he hit .306-1-17, and his reputation as the league’s best talent carried over to this summer, to a degree, as his time in the league was too limited for scouts to get an extended look at him to be convinced he was the league’s No. 1 prospect. Not only did Marrero take three weeks out to join Team USA, but he missed the final week of the Cape season when he was hit by a pitch and suffered a badly bruised left hand. 

7-19-11: - http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2011/6/29/2250656/early-look-at-2012#comments - Jared Price, Twin Valley HS, Mohnton, PA 6’2 185, loose and quick, some rerap and coil in back/short like Roger Clemens, fb jumps out of hand when he fully extends out front, fb up to 92, mostly 90 with arm side run and hard breaking ball that is still developing, showed fair command and control, aggressive, could be top 4-7 round in 2012.

9-8-11: - http://www.gacksports.com/65590/2012-mlb-mock-draft-update - 30. Boston Red Sox Steve Nyisztor 2nd Baseman Rutgers Nyisztor appeared in all 56 games and started all, but one game at 2nd base.  Nyisztor posted a .410 batting average along with 4 home runs, 51 RBI’s, 11 stolen bases, and 17 doubles.  Nyisztor is a project, but has the tools to be a 5 tool player if his home run ability improves.

9-21-11: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6253 – what are your thoughts on high school 1b Tony Dimartino hes top 100 in your guys rankings any idea what round hell most likely go in? – DiMartino is a very strong right handed hitting first baseman from California with a ride to Arizona State. He's actually #328 right now. As a 6-0/6-1 right handed hitting first baseman, he has very little draft profile and I would expect him to be a college standout, much in the same way that Christian Walker (see previous post) has been.

9-1-11: - http://xmlbscout.angelfire.com - Ty Blach, Creighton, 6'1 200, nice lefty with fb up to 91, 92 on occ, most are 88-89, some arm side run and good change up, cb a bit sloppy at times, needs more consistency with cb and command to be effective and move up in draft status. 8-12 guy on paper with potential to go 4-7 rounds, keys will be overall command and if fb ticks up in velo any. Comparisons to former Jay, Brad Kucera former high rounder of the Brewers in the late 80's for coach Hendry.

2012 Draft Profile: - SP Brandon Thomas

I continue my series of draft prospects to keep an eye on.

I

Thomas plays in the Georgia Tech outfield and hit .307/.471/.429 in 205-ABs last season. Also had 36 walks while striking out only 42 times.

We consider Brandon one of out breakout players in the upcoming season.

I asked Brandon how he is preparing for the 2012 season:

Hey Mack.   Thanks for the message. I have enjoyed reading through your site! There will be a lot of preparation for the upcoming season. Physical preparation first, at Georgia Tech we have a great strength training program that our whole team follows 5 days a week until the season starts. In addition to this strength training, I always like to work hard on speed, acceleration, core strength, and flexibility through different drills and workouts that I have picked up from a friend (Tony Villani @ XPE Sports) in high school. Baseball wise, I'm looking forward to getting more at bats this fall from both sides and continuing to develop a great feel from both sides. Specifically, being consistent with my lower half which will allow my swing to be consistent and functional.   Best,  Brandon Thomas

Some additional info on Brandon:

http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/thomas_brandon00.html - 2010 -  Played in 32 games and made 24 starts - 23 in left field and one at DH - Batted .262 with 18 runs, four doubles, three triples and 13 RBI ... Was 5-for-6 in stolen base attempts ... Went 2-for-2 in his first two career at-bats, after entering the game late in a 20-3 win over Missouri State (2/20) ... Had a pinch-hit single against Xavier (2/27) ... Made his first career start in the second game against Maryland, picking up two hits including his first career double (3/20) ... Started his first game in left field going 1-for-2 with three runs scored against Mercer (3/23) ... Was 2-for-3 with a double, triple and his first career RBI the next day against the Bears (3/24) ... Collected two hits and a career-high four RBI in a comeback win over No. 17 North Carolina in the series finale ... His two-RBI triple sparked a five-run ninth inning rally for the Jackets ... Had three hits, a triple and four RBI in the series against No. 16 Clemson (4/16-18).

http://diamonddirectors.com/blog/2010/11/spotlight-becoming-a-switch-hitter-with-ga-techs-brandon-thomas - Some of life’s most important lessons can be learned on the baseball field, as GA Tech outfielder Brandon Thomas found out when he wanted to become a switch hitter. At age 16, Brandon had already been working with CJ Stewart at Diamond Directors for three years. He’d honed his natural athletic ability and gained a level of baseball skill to be proud of. One day, he approached CJ and told him that he wanted to add switch hitting to his list of accomplishments. CJ warned Brandon that it wouldn’t be easy, that becoming a reliable switch hitter would be full of ups and downs, but Brandon was set on making it happen. Before training him as a switch hitter, CJ required Brandon to agree to commit 100% to making it a reality, and Brandon did.

6-23-11: - http://baseballdraftreport.com  - Georgia Tech SO OF Brandon Thomas - .322/.434/.449 – 38 BB/40 K – 20/23 SB – 205 AB - It’s easy to see why Thomas has drawn favorably comparisons (by me) to former Georgia Tech outfielders Charlie Blackmon and Danny Payne. A quick rundown of his biggest positives: above-average range in a corner spot, an arm strong enough for right field, good speed that he knows how to use, gap power with a chance for more, excellent athleticism, and a pro ready body (6-3, 205 pounds). It can sometimes be difficult to pinpoint a good prospect a year ahead of the draft, but tools like that combined with really strong production at an outstanding college program make this whole prognostication thing a lot easier.

Q and A With Mack And... P Bret Mitchell

Mack:  Morning kiddies. We're talking today with the Mets 12th round draft pickin the 2010 draft, Minnesota State University's own Bret Mitchell. Hey Bret, how's everything today and where are you?

Mitchell:   It's going good right now I'm back home in Minnesota.

Mack:   Let's go back a little. You pitched only 8 games for Kingsport last season, which is exactly the same amout of appearances you had this past season for K-Port/Brooklyn combined?  Did you get off to a slow start out of camp?

Mitchell:  I thought I got off to a good start this year I spent a lot of time working on my change up which I thought really helped me

Mack:  How come only 8 games though? Was there an injury in camp?

Mitchell:  No I injured my hip in season.

Mack:  I forgot that. Bret, you came out of college with the reputation of having a plus-plus curveball. Scouts said you need to develop an additional secondary pitch, other than your fastball to compliment the curve. Have you had success with that?

Mitchell:  I think so I have added a change up and a slider both were working good for me this year

Mack:  Gotta ask you this... Do you miss starting?

Mitchell:  Yeah I mean being hurt is never fun I'm just excited to get started up again

Mack:  And we're thrilled to have you back. I'm sure no one has told you what your role will be in 2012, but I have you as being part of the Cyclone rotation. A couple of more questions... Are you ding anything special in the off-season to get ready for next spring?

Mitchell:   I work out with Tom Truesdon and he does a good job with me

Mack:  Bret, last question. There's a lot of people here at Mack's Mets that follow players like you. Anything you want to say to them?

Mitchell:  Can't wait get going again next year going to work hard on staying healthy and have a good full season.

More on Mitchell...

Drafted  in the 12th round of the 2010 draft by the New York Mets. Signed, and immediately assigned to Kingsport for the 2010 season.

6-26-10: - Mitchell got off to a fantastic start last night for Kingsport , pitching 5.0 innings, giving up only one earned run while striking out eight.

7-7-10: - Mitchell pitched another gem last night and we need to add him to our watch list for The Keepers…  stats so far this season:  3-G,  2-1, 1.65, 0.97, 2.20-RA9, .300-BABIP, 2.26-FIP

Final 2010 stats:  2-2, 5.94, 8-ST, 42-K, 36.1-IP

9-23-10 2011 forecast:  Mitchell got off to a great start for Kingsport, but gave up 21 earned runs in his last five outings. Watch for him to return to Kingsport for a second shot next spring.

6-25-11: - Mitchell was a 12th rounder last season that got off to a great start with Kingsport. By 7-7-10 he was 3-6, 2-1, 1.65, 0.97, 2.20-RA9, .300-BABIP, 2.26-FIP; however, the rest of the season sort of went downhill and he finished the season  2-2, 5.94, 8-ST, 42-K, 36.1-IP. This included giving up 21-ER in his last five outings. Well, he got back on the horse in K-Port last night, thowing five hitless shutout innings, striking out six while walking only one. We’ll keep an eye on him.

8-14-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/08/kingsport-mets-team-report-stretch-run-edition.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MetsMerizedOnline-GetMetsmerized-NewYorkMets+%28Mets+Merized+Online%29&utm_content=Twitter - Bret Mitchell - The 6’2″ RHP won 5 of his first 7 starts for the K-Mets and then was promoted to Brooklyn. The 2010 12th round pick out of Minnesota State University-Mankato, went 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA for Kingsport. In 40 IP he gave up 24 Hits, only two of which were HR’s. He had a 38/12 K/BB ratio, the league was hitting .175 against him and his WHIP was 0.91.

8-25-11: -  http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110825&content_id=23728940&vkey=news_t506&fext=.jsp&sid=t506 -  The Kingsport Mets announced their pitcher and hitters of the year before the final home game of the season Wednesday against the Danville Braves.

Right-handed pitcher Bret Mitchell was named the pitcher of the year. A 6'1" 195 pounder, Mitchell led the team in wins as he posted a record of 5-1 with an impressive 2.95 ERA. In 40 innings pitched Mitchell allowed just 24 hits while striking out 38 batters and walking 12. Mitchell who was promoted to the Brooklyn Cyclones on August 5th, is a former Appalachian League pitcher of the week who took no-hitters into the 5th inning on three different occasions this summer.