Reasons To Smile

This may not be shaping up as the offseason of your dreams, but that doesn't mean it's time to use that cyanide capsule you've been saving for the day the Mets lose Wright and Reyes. There are plenty of reasons to still look at 2012 with an air of optimism and hope... maybe even a manic tinge of glee.

Generation 2K: Now... the caveat here is to not start placing all your eggs in this basket but the bright side of a down year is that players like Harvey, Familia, Mejia, McHugh, CoHoon and Schwinden can all get their shots. HECK, if he makes Harvey-esque strides, we could see Zack Wheeler in 2012.

Lucas Duda: For some reason, as I watched Plaxico Burress turn back the clock with 3 TD catches I found myself thinking of Lucas Duda. Okay, so Plax is not a top WR anymore. HOWEVER once he's in the endzone, he's great at scoring runs. Similarly I think Duda will be a great source for RBI's. He's got a good approach to at bats and I think he will be good for 80+ and maybe even 90+ RBIs.

Happy Surprises: Remember when the Mets were THE team to beat in the NL East and they got some surprises? Injuries upon injuries and a couple collapses that left the team realing? Well this season could start with the Mets expected to finish 4th or 5th in the NL East and that means that surprises... are probably only going to be the good kind.

Looking At Things From THEIR Perspective

I've done a lot of posting about what I'd do, or at least LIKE to do if I were running the Mets. I mean I've listed every solution from signing Reyes to going after Albert Pujols and back again. I think it might be more important to look at things from the perspective about the guys paying the bills.

Let us face some facts:

• Attendance Is Down
• The Team Isn't Winning
• They Either Participated In Or Were Taken By A Ponzi Scheme
• They Will Need To Pay Irving Picard Between $83 and $383 Million

Let us also remember that a year spent rebuilding without stars like Wright and/or Reyes means LOWER attendance, LESS wins and LESS revenue with which to pay Irving Picard. So... forgetting what is in the best interest of the team... what is in the best interest of the OWNERS?

Let us look at assets:

• David Wright, the face of the franchise, he's a homegrown talent with a large fan following. He's had a couple of rougher seasons now, and might net you more talent in a trade.
• Johan Santana, He's beyond the point where he's a draw for fans because he hasn't pitched in a long time and he's not the pitcher he was.
• Ike Davis, He's the future face of the offense which is fine, but he won't draw big box office numbers by himself.
• Scrappy Go-Getters, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and R.A. Dickey might all be fine players but they aren't getting fans into the seats.
• Generation 2K, You have a crop of TOP starting pitching talent in the farm but it could be over a year away and could fizzle like Generation K did.

If Alderson did nothing, and let Reyes walk there isn't enough there to keep the fans interested. The Wilpons WANT fans to be interested. They would love to bring in an Albert Pujols who could single-handedly bring in a slew of fans with his reputation alone. However, Pujols does NOT make sense for the Mets and their pitcher's park. So... what should the Wilpons do to keep fans in the seats for 2012?

The Fan Plan:

• Re-Sign Jose Reyes - (It's a good-will gesture to the fans that you are not going to play it cheap in a big city like NY. It says, "Yes, we can afford to keep our home grown talent.")
• Lock Up Wright - (Does he live up to the marquee billing? Maybe not, but he's the face of the team and you need to maintain the face of your team until you can establish a new one. Think the Yankees with Jeter into Cano.)
• Let Alderson Find His Gems - (I'd love the Mets to anti-up and get a Yu Darvish or C.J. Wilson but that is a little much. Instead let Alderson take low-risk chances on guys like: Chris Young, Scott Kazmir etc...)
• Get A Legit Closer - (For a short-term deal. I'm starting to feel like Francisco Cordero is the best fit because he can come in with a 1-2 year deal, do his job... then retire.)

If the Mets did those things they could stay relatively competitive in 2012 and still start promoting the crop of young talent from 2012 to 2014. This way you aren't sacrificing the future but also not giving the fans reason to panic and/or abandon ship. It is in the Wilpon's best FINANCIAL interest for Alderson to spend SOME money.

The Second Base Race

While the main debate remains whether the Mets will re-sign Jose Reyes and/or trade David Wright, I want to talk about a position with options. The Mets have plenty of options for who will end up playing second base, let's look at some pros and cons.

Daniel Murphy:
Murphy can hit, he doesn't have a TON of power but he can hit. There is hardly a soul alive that doesn't think Murphy has a legit MLB bat. There are PLENTY of people who don't think he has an MLB position. The fact is he's played okay at first base, reasonably well at third, passably at second... and not so great in the outfield. Before the season I was one of the people who picked Murphy to beat out Castillo, Emaus and Turner for the starting job based on his bat. I was not at all surprised when he wound up there after a few weeks.

Pros - Murphy's bat is what makes us fans clamor for him getting into the starting lineup. He hits for average with some solid power and very good contact.

Cons - Murphy is not a natural fielder. He makes most of the plays but will not do so well and WILL lead to errors no matter where you play him.

Odds - 10:1 (Murphy's biggest issue isn't his glove, it's that he's not viewed as a starter. Some bloggers will talk about the need for defense up the middle, but ESPECIALLY if Reyes and Wright are going away, the Mets NEED to pump as much offense into the lineup as possible.)

Ruben Tejada:
It's no secret that I'm not a huge Tejada fan. Ruben's bat does nothing to excite me and he's always struck me as a solid backup IF. He does show flashes of contact at the plate, but doesn't provide power or speed in such a way that I groan when I think of him as a starting everyday player. Ruben gets his support based on his outstanding glove work which gets rave reviews at SS and 2B. A big thing to consider is that if Reyes leaves town he has NO chance of starting at second as he's almost guaranteed to start at SS.

Pros - The biggest pro is his glove but I guess you could also love his age as it might allow him growth. Any way I cut it, I can't see that meaning power or speed... which translates into minimal production.

Cons - Tejada may occasionally hit for contact which keeps his BA above .260, but his power is non-existent and his speed is minimal.

Odds - 4:1 (Tejada has a good shot to win the starting 2B job IF Reyes is back with the team. If Reyes is not I would say he has NO shot... as he'll be the starting SS.)

Justin Turner:
Big Red was a big, pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011. He doesn't have a ton of speed or power... like Tejada but he's got double power and seemed to get a ton of clutch hits. In the field he's not exactly a dynamo with the glove and leaves something to be desired, but he CAN handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st. The fact remains that Turner strikes almost everyone as a backup IF. He DOES do more with the bat than Tejada and he DOES have more fielding chops than Murphy but does any of that make him a SOLID starter?

Pros - Jeterlike intangibles? How else can you quantify that he simply seemed to collect BIG hits.

Cons - Completely average. He doesn't do anything that is THAT impressive.

Odds - 6:1 (If Reyes is gone, he has a VERY good chance of at least starting the year on second. His biggest competition would be Jordany Valdespin and my bet would be that Terry would prefer to avoid the immaturity issues that Jordany brings to the table.)

Josh Satin:
Most bloggers love Josh. He's not supposed to be anything special but the guy keeps hitting. I don't think he's a great option to start at 2nd, he's like Justin Turner with less MLB experience. For that reason he's really an after-thought in the race for the position. At the same time he will be a part of the bench and from what I've seen him do in the minors, I expect he'll be useful in whatever his role ends up. BECAUSE of that I think he could work his way into Terry's good graces for a time-share at second by the half-way point of 2012.

Pros - Josh Satin has a GREAT eye. I don't know if it will mean a ton of walks in the majors as pitchers will not be trying to pitch around him, but we can expect he'll not swing at bad pitches.

Cons - Defense is not his strongest suit and though I don't think he'd hurt us, I can already hear the people calling in and saying defense is the most important thing up the middle.

Odds - 15:1 (The odds are not good that he gets ANY starting position, but he SHOULD make the roster.

Jordany Valdespin:
I like Valdespin a lot, but I'm not a manager and I don't have to deal with discipline. Of all the candidates his glove is among the best, his power is among the best and he has the most speed. Should Reyes leave... Jordany WILL be with the Mets as they need the legs in the lineup. He's not the smartest base runner, but that will come with time. The knock against Jordany is his work ethic. Terry loves gritty guys who will kill themselves for their team. Jordany has been disciplined by minor league teams multiple times and that is a bad sign.

Pros - Raw talent is all in the kid's favor. He's got a glove nearly as good as Tejada's, power similar to Murphy and more speed than anyone else on the depth chart for second.

Cons - He's a bit of a problem in terms of discipline.

Odds - 13:1 (He's a bit of a long-shot to make the team unless Reyes leaves town. Then he's a longshot to NOT be the starting 2B.)

Reese Havens:
Reese is the wild card. He's still the 2B of the future and he's got the skills to blow most of the other players away. The issue with Reese is the same issue he's had for years. He cannot stay healthy. I love that he did not go to the AFL and instead is focusing on conditioning and weight training to get him healthy for 2012-13. It makes him a longer shot to win the job this spring, but if Wright and Reyes are gone it's going to be hard to keep him out of Queens. We could have a redux of the 2010 Ike Davis situation very quickly.

Pros - GREAT bat. The guy commands the plate, has a good and powerful line drive swing and plays reasonably good defense.

Cons - HEALTH! If he cannot stay on the field he's useless.

Odds - 20:1 (It's a long shot for him to win the job but a longer shot for him not to earn it if he's healthy.)

The Top 25: Jason Bay

It's really sad that I have to go to Bay as the 4th player in my most likely 25 player list. He's too expensive to drop and too bad to trade and he's GOING to start the year in left field for the Mets no matter what. That does NOT mean he's going to END the year in Flushing or... at least STARTING in Flushing.

What's To Like:

How He Handles The Press - If a baseball player's worth was decided by how well he talked to the media, Jason Bay would be worth a ton. He's good at saying the "right" thing when he's asked questions that, left to some players, might trap might trap a player into saying something negative about the team, coaching staff or his fellow players. Maybe he should coach the Wilpons.

What's Not To Like:

His Resume in New York - Since coming to New York he's not exactly done... ANYTHING. He's nowhere NEAR that 30 HR hitter he was in Pittsburgh and Boston. He's nowhere near 80+ RBIs that Omar Minaya wrongfully assumed he'd be guaranteed.

Mentality - I hate to say it, but I think Jason Bay has even given up on Jason Bay. When I look at him I don't see a player who expects to be the player he once was ever again. I remember seeing Luis Castillo give me glimmers of what he once was. Is Jason Bay going to make me yearn for Luis Castillo?

Random And Awesome:

Those Who Hail From Trail - Jason Bay hails from Trail in British Columbia. The following people ALSO hail from there: Shawn Horcoff, current NHL player and captain of the Edmonton Oilers. Thomas d'Aquino, Chief executive and president of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives CCCE, and one of the private-sector architects of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Lauren Bay, Canadian National Softball Team and National Pro Fastpitch pitcher (Jason's sister ). Adam Deadmarsh, former NHL player, won Stanley cup in 1996 with the Colorado Avalanche. Dallas Drake, former NHL player, won Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Red Wings. Ray Ferraro, former NHL player for the Islanders, Rangers, Whalers, Thrashers, Kings, Blues. Bruno Freschi, architect for Expo 86. Ken Georgetti, current President of the Canadian Labour Congress. Robert Hampton Gray, one of the last Canadians to die in WWII and the last Canadian recipient of the Victoria Cross. Tom Harrison, former MLB pitcher for the Kansas City A's, now the Oakland Athletics. Barret Jackman, current NHL player for the St. Louis Blues. Mike Kobluk, of The Chad Mitchell Trio. Richard Kromm, former NHL player. Kerrin Lee-Gartner, Canadian Olympic Women's Ski Team, Downhill Olympic Gold Medal 1992. Cesare Maniago, former NHL player for the Leafs, Canadiens, Rangers, North Stars, Canucks. Mike Matteucci, former NHL player for the Wild. Steve McCarthy, current NHL player for the Blackhawks, Canucks, Thrashers. Bill McEwan, President and CEO of Sobeys. Faron Moller, President of the BCTCS. Martin Popoff, heavy metal music journalist. Steve Tambellini, former NHL player & current GM of the Edmonton Oilers.

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B
2. Jon Niese, SP
3. Tim Byrdak, RP
4. Jason Bay, LF
   

Finding The Diamonds in the Rough

Low Risk... High Reward... we've heard it about 1000 times. A player who has been VERY good, who has dealt with repeated years of disappointment due to injury or some other issue. You give him an incentive rich deal for a single season and if he does NOT perform, you haven't lost much money. Let us see who is out there who might fit into this category.

Catchers:
The category is pretty slim in free agency. The only names I come up with are Ivan Rodriguez who will be 40 and Gerald Laird who reminds me of a slightly worse Ronny Paulino. Now... Ryan Doumit might be a guy to look at but all and all I don't think there is anyone with upside enough to bother.

First Base:
The Mets have Ike Davis who is cheap, young and talented. They also have Murphy and Evans who can fill in if there is an injury. Moving on.

Second Base:
I don't know if any of these guys are necessarily good fits for the Mets, but they are at least offensive upgrades to Ruben Tejada.

Aaron Hill - He's sorta been hit or miss his entire career. He burst onto the scene with tremendous numbers in 2007 then again came up big in 2009. He's got some power and the ability to play a few positions, but the question is... how much do teams think he's worth. Arizona could keep him for $8 Mil but... I'm betting they don't. As a free agent I think he costs AT LEAST $2.5 Mil guaranteed. But I doubt much higher.

Kelly Johnson - Kelly had a good year in Atlanta before falling off the charts rapidly. He then re-emerged in Arizona where he developed a powerful reputation for HRs and strikeouts. Now... he's probably THE best 2B on the market (if Phillips is brought back to Cincy) and not what I'd call CHEAP, but again I don't think the interest will garner a contract anywhere near $10 Mil guaranteed. Think more around $4 or $5.

Third Base:
IF Wright were traded... the Mets have Murphy, Lutz and even Evans, Satin and Turner to throw out to the position. HOWEVER, it never hurts to look at other options.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - From 2008 through 2010 he was actually a pretty solid contributor and he managed it in PITCHER parks. In 2011 he flopped pretty hard but he's likely to not cost much at all and he has pretty solid power. He'd NOT be more than a 1 year deal and for that year... he'd not be more than a $2-3 Mil guaranteed. IS he better than Murphy? I don't know. HOWEVER, we could potentially trade Murphy.

Short Stop:
IF Reyes isn't re-signed. There ISN'T a cheap option with high upside to be had. SORRY, Jimmy Rollins will not be cheap.

Outfield:
I only see the Mets looking at a free agent OF if they intend to not offer arbitration to Angel Pagan. If they do go that route getting a free agent CF in case Captain Kirk proves not to be ready would just be a wise backup plan. There are actually a good number of options. Though only two strike me as value options.

Nate McLouth - Remember when Nate was the best player on the Pirates? Well 2.5 BAD seasons in Atlanta later and few people do. His option will not be picked up and he's not likely to get a BIG offer from anyone. With all that out in the open, if I can get McLouth for less than the commitment we'd be giving Pagan in arbitration I think I'd have to sign up for it. He still has some power and some speed and gives some prospects a little extra time to develop.

Grady Sizemore - Since the height of his value in 2006 he's taken a nose dive. Does that mean teams have forgotten about what Grady COULD be? Maybe... maybe not. I'm willing to bet that the Mets COULD take a chance on Grady for right around what Pagan would win in arbitration and that the reward of suce a venture could be VERY high. It's a lot of IF. I still happen to think he has something to offer a pro team.

Starting Pitchers:
We've finally reached the point where you can BANK on Alderson getting 1 or 2 guys in this type of category. The list starts with a couple of guys we all know and from there... well it's other guys we know.

Chris Capuano - Capuano was not a phenomenal starter for the Mets but I like bringing him back as a starter because IF/WHEN the Mets start bringing up the Harveys, Familias and Mejias of the world he can switch back into the bullpen and be DARNED effective. He's also a fine option for eating innings as a starter during what might be another ROUGH rebuilding year.

Chris Young - Before he got hurt... AGAIN, he was the BEST pitcher on the Met staff. Will he be able to be healthy in 2012? Probably not, but he's also likely to be cheap, and WHEN healthy he's likely to be pretty darned good. If we struck gold and he managed to stay off the DL... well we would be in a very NICE situation.

Scott Kazmir - Kazmir fell off the wagon HARD. He's not looked at remotely like the pseudo-ace he was (briefly) in Tampa. He really wouldn't be expected by almost anyone to be anything all that special in ANY capacity. HOWEVER, as he was once a front-end starter and once a top prospect for the Mets so he'd be worth a minor league contract and Spring Training invite.

Javier Vazquez - His 2011 wasn't good but I still think Vazquez could cobble together another fine season of NL pitching. He actually might be my favorite pick from this list to have the biggest impact on the 2012 Mets. He's got the ability to be a #3 pitcher if things break right and wouldn't cost much more than a Chris Capuano.

Chien-Ming Wang - Now... he didn't exactly wow anyone in 2011 but with injury recovery I really think it's the second year back that you can judge. With a chance to train full time again, perhaps the Mets could coax Wang into the pitcher he was for that team in the Bronx? Perhaps not. Again... he wouldn't cost much.

Relief Pitching:
I'm sorry but there isn't a real answer for low-risk high-reward players right now. Once the number of teams looking for closers goes down... then YES, there will be, but until then all the options should be considered middle of the road (though Papelbon should be considered pricey).

The Top 25: Tim Byrdak

With corner-stones like Reyes, Wright and Santana in doubt I again need to go with a SAFE choice for someone who will DEFINITELY be in the starting 25 for the 3rd player I choose. Tim Byrdak is that guy. Met's extended him through 2012 and AT LEAST until the trade deadline.

What's To Like:

LOOGY - His overall numbers are good but against lefties he's GREAT. He's actually sorta bad against righties and gets saved by the fact he faces few of them. Let's just keep from talk about him closing or setting up as that would be awful.

What's Not To Like:

AGE - Tim Byrdak will be 38 next year and old arms break down. The key will be that the Mets NEED to have multiple lefties in the bullpen. That SHOULD be solved by Daniel Herrera.

Random And Awesome:

Minnie Me - He played for the Gary SouthShore RailCats in 2003. While playing for the Rail Cats,he faced 77-year-old Minnie Minoso leading off the game at St. Paul on July 16, 2003 and got a walk. The plate appearance marks Minoso’s seventh decade of professional baseball, and Byrdak is quoted in the “Scorecard” section of Sports Illustrated on his impressions on facing the former White Sox star.

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B
2. Jon Niese, SP
3. Tim Byrdak, RP
   

Wright To Colorado, RIGHT For Mets?

So... you might have noticed some additional news items relating to Colorado. This all dates back to rumors that the Rockies were "Very Interested" in David Wright. Being interested and negotiating are two different things but I'm feeling more and more like the teams might be getting closer to negotiating a trade than we might think.

First Things First:
I'm going to state this as simply as I can. If Colorado is not ready to give Drew Pomeranz and Nolan Arenado in the same deal for Wright, the Mets NEED to walk away. NEED NEED NEED.

For The Wright Fans:
I'm a David Wright fan. He is my favorite player in baseball and it will hurt deeply if the Mets were to trade him away. Just remember that David Wright could get you THREE or MORE players who could all have Wright-Sized impacts on the team. The flip-side being... they could each never have ANY positive impact on the team. It's a risk, but in terms probability it's also more likely that with 3-4 guys you'll have more impact help than with 1. Add to this the HUGE financial splash

Also, the Mets would go from having one of the MOST depleted farms in baseball to something rivaling the recent Tampa Bay. For a team that, when good, will make a good deal of money the Wilpons will be set to rake in good profits from 2013 on for a solid run of a decade or longer.

What We'd Be Getting:
Any offer from Colorado NEEDS to start with Drew Pomeranz... at least, if they want David Wright it does. The young lefty and potential Ace will be the hardest jewel to pry from Colorado, but I think the Mets can and WOULD. After Drew you can look at Nolan Arenado (3rd Base Prospect) who has a good eye and lots of power. He'll start 2012 in AA but is likely on track to debut in the majors as soon as 2013.

Then... it gets hazy. You COULD try and get Wilin Rosario. I try to, but if he can't be included it doesn't break the deal. I'd prefer at lease one more NON-Pitching prospect in the deal no matter what.

The Reyes Question:
If Wright goes, what do the Mets do with Reyes?

A) The Mets are CLEARLY rebuilding and they don't need to spend money on Reyes when the team is going to finish dismally in 2012.

B) The Met 2012 might look bleak but they should be ready in 2013 and there are NO top SS's in the organizational depth chart. Reyes has plenty of value for 2013 and beyond.

So... I don't know what the Mets would do... could go either way.

What Does This Wrightless Future Look Like?

2012 Team:

C: Josh Thole (Perhaps Wilin Rosario via trade)
1B: Ike Davis (WOW! A position without drama)
2B: Jordany Valdespin (Havens is around the corner)
SS: Ruben Tejada (When Havens is ready the battle for SS begins)
3B: Zach Lutz (Turner and Satin are in the mix)
LF: Jason Bay (I think he will be downgraded/benched/dropped before 2013)
CF: Angel Pagan (Trade Deadline departure and debut of Matt Den Dekker)
RF: Lucas Duda (Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis wait in the wings)

SP1: R.A. Dickey (He's not a #1 pitcher but he's OURs... for now)
SP2: Jon Niese (He's #2 to protect his confidence)
SP3: Dillon Gee (Expect Harvey, Familia or Mejia to take this spot by mid-June)
SP4: Drew Pomeranz (Assuming he's in the deal he's the best on the staff)
SP5: Chris Schwinden (Expect one of the other prospects or Gee by late June)

CL: Jonathan Broxton (Wow! We signed a free agent?)
SU: Bobby Parnell (We WON'T stop trying to get him over the hump)
SU: Pedro Beato (Feels like he has better stuff than Acosta)
MR: Manny Acosta (Will be the MOST USED reliever in baseball)
MR: Tim Byrdak (He's going to be our top lefty until the deadline)
MR: Daniel Herrera (We NEED to have two lefties on the bullpen)
LR: D.J. Carrasco (We'll trade him if and when we can)

2013 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Kirk Niewenhuis
CF: Matt Den Dekker
RF: Fernando Martinez (Lucas Duda could just be THAT good and still be here)

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Colin McHugh

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Bobby Parnell
SU: Jonathan Broxton
MR: Manny Acosta
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Mark Cohoon

2014 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Cory Vaughn
CF: Brandon Nimmo
RF: Cesar Puello

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Zack Wheeler

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Josh Edgin
SU: Jesse Leathersich
MR: Colin McHugh
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Darrin Gorski

Some Names To Learn:

Full Name: Thomas Andrew Pomeranz

Born: 11/22/1988

Birthplace: Memphis, TN

College: Mississippi

Height: 6' 5"

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: L

Scouting:

Pomeranz is a big, physical, strong, durable starter with a power three pitch mix of a fastball, curveball, and changeup. His fastball sits comfortably at 91-94 MPH and touches 95 MPH, and shows good swing and miss ability. His fastball is explosive through the zone and he is aggressive with it going right after hitters, especially on the hands of right-handers. Hitters often have a hard time tracking his fastball because it gets in on them quicker due to some good deception in his delivery, late life, and movement. He shows solid average command of his fastball and works it well to both sides of the plate.

Pomeranz’s plus-plus 12-6 knuckle curveball may be his best pitch as it has good, sharp downward bite and was considered one of the best secondary offerings in all of the 2010 Draft. It is another swing and miss type pitch in his arsenal, and he holds it with the same grip that left-hander Cliff Lee does. He rarely threw his changeup in college since he was mostly a fastball-curveball guy so it is a below average pitch for him at the moment, but he shows a good feel for it and it has the potential to at least be an average pitch if not more.

Pomeranz has a loose, low effort delivery and gets a good downward plane on his pitches. He gets a lot of swing and misses with his pitches, and uses his fastball to overpower hitters and mixes in his curveball well to keep them off balance. He is a workhorse, and his velocity and stuff holds up well late in games. He is a fierce competitor on the mound who is mature, controls his emotions well, and is very focused. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and is unwavered even in the tightest spots and does not let the game speed up on him when things are not going well. Because of his ability to keep cool and collected along with some great performances in big games in the past he has established a reputation as being a big game pitcher.

My Two Cents: A lefty with this kind of body, that kind of fastball and a KNUCKLE CURVE... is not something that comes along every day. Let us remember also that Pomeranz has also gotten his feet wet in the majors. Now... my bet is that Colorado will do EVERYTHING in their power to keep Drew off the table in a trade, but if I'm trading away my teams BEST player, I feel that I have the right to DEMAND the other team's BEST prospect.

Full Name: Nolan J. Arenado

Born: 04/16/1991

Birthplace: Newport Beach, CA

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Physique & Athleticism: Listed at 6’2″, 205 lbs., he looked a couple of inches shorter in uniform which might be explained by his thick lower half and high socks. That look can often leave a player looking shorter than he actually is. With a thick lower half, Arenado is all lower body. His upper half is not developed at this point, but his broad shoulders and muscular forearms leave plenty of room for projection. A below-average runner, he’s built for power, not speed. Arenado’s movements were smooth at the plate, but his footwork left plenty to be desired in the field. In fact, it was so awkward the first impression left was that of a prospect destined for first base or left field. However, he did his best to sway my initial observation as he made up for his lack of footwork with a number of difficult plays and accurate throws across the diamond.

Hitting: Make no mistake, Arenado’s bat is going to have to carry him to Colorado. His in-game power is below only a handful of players I have seen at the level. He consistently drove the baseball hard into the gaps throughout the series leading to multiple extra base hits and a couple of fly balls which reached the warning track. As he adds pull side power, his home run totals should really take off. The natural lift generated by Arenado’s swing is far beyond his years as the power tool is normally the last to develop. Arenado also has the bat speed to drive 90-91 MPH up in the zone. Unfortunately, the Sand Gnats staff is a soft-throwing group so seeing how any hitting prospect handles higher velocities is virtually impossible.

As for Arenado’s hitting mechanics, his pre-swing load could be quieter as he starts his hands just behind his ears and has to move them quite a bit to get into the hitting position. His legs start in a medium-wide stance and he features something close to a double-tap prior to his swing. Throughout the series, he consistently squared up on fastballs, but sometimes looked as if the extra movement in his swing threw off his timing some versus offspeed pitches. Never cheated, his approach was to hammer the first fastball over the plate and he was successful more often than not. Like Wilmer Flores, Arenado left me more impressed with his ability to make hard contact than his pitch-taking prowess. If you can detect a hint of sarcasm, it is because walk rates for teenagers at this level are relatively worthless for a player like Arenado who is going to have to mash his way to Colorado.

Defense: In game one of the series, Arenado took short, choppy steps to to get to balls and made an error on a routine grounder a step to his left. My initial reaction was to write him off as a third baseman, but he proceeded to play flawless defense showing the ability to react to hard hit balls, charge slow rollers, with an average, accurate throwing arm. Arenado has quite a bit of work to do to project as an average third baseman, but he has time, and makeup on his side.

Speed: Not much to discuss here in terms of stolen base ability, but he’s a smart, hard-working player who will do the little things well such as baserunning.

My Two Cents: I think if the question comes down to trading Wright, then the Mets NEED to acquire a prospect 3B in the deal. Arenado has a good amount of power and a GREAT eye at the plate. His major flaw vs. Wright is that he's not going to steal bases. He's in the AFL now which I take to put him slightly ahead of the AA curve.

Full Name: Wilin Rosario

Born: 02/23/1989

Birthplace: Bonao, Dominican Republic

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Jeff Reese (34): It may be foolhardy in the end, but I did not severely punish Wilin Rosario for tearing his ACL last August. I did move him down slightly in my rankings, but ultimately evaluated him on his talent alone. By all accounts, he is progressing well and could be back in time to participate in spring training. Others will be cautious, waiting to see Rosario make a full recovery first; I completely understand that point of view and see why they would choose to do so. Rosario's bat has the chance to be special if he can add a bit more patience to approach; he has plus power and the hand-eye coordination to hit for average. Rosario is a quality defensive catcher as well thanks to his plus-plus arm strength and good receiving skills. It's a pity that he got injured when he did as he was finally starting to gain widespread recognition as a premier prospect after the defensive display he put on at the Futures Game.

Al Skorupa (51): I don’t think it’s foolhardy at all. I really didn’t consider Rosario’s injury much in my ranking. BA had positive reports on his recovery a couple weeks back. [1] Personally, I have no real reservations that he won’t return to plus defense behind the plate. The thing that holds Rosario back for me is, as you mention, his patience. He’s walking a bit of a thin line in that category. If he regresses at all there he may be just a good defensive catcher who can hit some instead of a plus hitter and defender. He does strike out quite a bit. On the other hand, he’s only 21 years old. That’s another reason the ACL doesn’t bother me.

Michael Herrick (107): I'm very much the opposite of Al and Jeff here. While the preliminary reports on Rosario's knee sound good, until we see him catching full games 4-5 times a week, it's really hard to gauge if the ACL tear will have a long term effect on his defense. His defense is a major part of the attraction here, so I'll err on the side of caution. Al and Jeff both mention something else that worries me about Rosario, how much his patience (or lack thereof) could weigh down his offensive potential. There are just too many question marks for me to rank him in my top 100 at this point. A healthy showing in 2011 would move him up my list quickly.

My Two Cents: Rosario has power and that, in a catcher, is a nice bonus. Add that his glove etc... are ready for the majors and it's even nicer. I believe he could come to the Mets and immediately step ahead of Josh Thole on the depth chart.

Full Name: Alex Bruce White

Born: 08/29/1988

Birthplace: Greenville, NC

College: North Carolina

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

JD Sussman (73): During the majority his time at North Carolina, White was considered a consensus top pick for the 2009 draft. However, during his final college his stock plummeted due to concerns that his future was in the bullpen and a disappearing slider, likely costing him a few million dollars. While I was not one of them ranking him 91st last year, White has squelched his doubters thus far in his professional career. His repertoire has three above average offerings, two fastballs, a splitter, to go with the slider, which is still a work in progress. He doesn't miss bats at an elite rate (just 16.5% K/PA as a SP in 2010) but he has kept his walks manageable while inducing a lot of groundballs.

Al Skorupa (87): I'm just not a fan of White's sinker/splitter mix. Even if the slider continues to improve and becomes an average pitch, I question if he will consistently be able to throw it for strikes. White is solid, but strictly a middle of the rotation type for me. Between the two pitch power repertoire, shaky mechanics and inconsistency I can't help but think White fits better in the pen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a capable sinkerball starting pitcher, though.

Michael Herrick (72): I tend to agree with Al's assessment of White. I see a pretty sure fire MLB pitcher, but whether it's as an innings eating MOR starter or as a strong closer is the question. The dwindling K rate after his promotion to AA doesn't ease my concerns with him either. His profile reminds of former Indian Jake Westbrook. That's not a bad career to have, but probably not quite what many expect.

Jeff Reese (52): I don't consider myself crazy high on Alex White or anything, but I was easily the highest of the group. JD's evaluation is on point. While he doesn't miss a lot of bats, he does rack up the ground balls, making it easy to see him succeeding in the majors. He gives me a Derek Lowe type of vibe: slightly above-average, inning eating, ground ball inducing starting pitcher.

My Two Cents: Most of what I find on White refers to him as a secondary pitching prospect (leading me to believe he's a safe bet to be included in a deal). The big thing on White is that he was at one point "THE TOP PROSPECT" now he fits closer to a middle of the rotation projection.

Full Name: Chad Bettis

Born: 04/26/1989

Birthplace: Lubbock, TX

College: Texas Tech

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 193

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

A dominant closer at Texas Tech, righthander Chad Bettis is exactly the right kind of pitcher to survive at Coors. He mixes a heavy and loose fastball with an effective mid-80's slider that prevents hitters from making square contact. His brief time in the minors to date has been no challenge at all, as Bettis has easily delivered a shimmering 1.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 67 career innings of work. (He's struck out 56 and walked only 13.) He still has to get over the hurdle of AA, but at this rate, he'll be banging on the bullpen door in Colorado by 2012.

Some Of The Others:

1. Tim Wheeler
2. Juan Nicasio
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Kyle Parker
5. Christian Friedrich
6. Charlie Blackmon
7. Tyler Anderson

Met's Undergoing A Facelift

Every so often a brand or company needs to change things up because what they've become "Known" for isn't a positive. At this point it is better to DROP brand equity and RE-ESTABLISH a new and more POSITIVE image. Think of the big box pizza places:

Pizza Hut - Your favorites. Your Pizza Hut.

Papa John's - Better ingredients, better Pizza... Papa John's

Over a year ago Domino'ss decided to change things up. Domino's was and IS known for CHEAP pizza. You can eat your weight in bread, sauce and cheese for around $20. However nobody ever thought of Domino's as GOOD pizza. Last year they decided to change things up. They started to run commercials where they acknowledged their short-comings and promised to change things. What has followed is one of the most succesful ad campaigns in corporate history. Domino's has never been regarded more favorably by consumers and their sales numbers are way up from where they had been.

Why am I talking about pizza? It's a good question. So let's look at some big-market baseball teams:

New York Yankees - A Team of Legends

Philadelphia Phillies - The Greatest Rotation in History

What are the Mets know as? Lovable Losers? Plucky Underdogs? Choke Artists? Financial Fraud Criminals? The OTHER Team in New York? I'm betting that the Wilpons are looking to change the team and I don't think changes will be small. They started when the Wilpons signed a GM like Sandy Alderson. The Mets were not going to invest in bad contracts with over-achieving players. They were going to change things. Changing the very way we expect to see a New York team run.

Step 1: Clear House

The Mets have already expunged Omar Minaya and his cronies from the franchise. HOWEVER... it wasn't so much the front-office that needed to be cleared as the overall soul of that office's team.

I now believe (THIS IS THE GLASS HALF FULL GUY) that the Mets will be cutting ties with David Wright and quite possibly ALSO Jose Reyes. I think they'll try to trade Johan Santana and I think the Mets are gearing for a resurgent 2013 and a big run in 2014.

That doesn't make the Id of my inner sport's fan very happy, but it does appease my inner Super Igo. If I think logically, I think the Mets can build a winner in two years by cleaning house and starting from basically scratch. If they go other routes... spending money and trading prospects... I can no longer be sure that the Mets will ever break through the ceiling of the other teams in their division.

Step 2: Establish A NEW Brand

The Mets of the Omar Minaya era were headlined by Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Johan Santana, David Wright and Jose Reyes (Jason Bay?). This was not the Steve Phillips Mets where stars went elsewhere. This was the team who went out and GOT the marquee players.

There is a new generation of Mets on the horizon and I TRULY believe they will make up the future of the franchise. Therefore the Mets will be known for nurturing a crop of pitchers up from the minors and creating a pitching team to rival those jerks who wear red and white.

Step 3: Win The Fans

Convincing me that I can win in two years if I let my favorite players go is one thing. Convincing fans to not abandon ship when the franchise stops paying for top talent this next season is another. The Mets are on the verge of alienating a HUGE percentage of fans. It's going to be rougher for the Wilpons than you might think.

If the Mets don't spend in 2012... attendance will dwindle, viewership will drop and ad sales will take a nose dive. So... the Mets need to give the Met fans a message to help them through. I'm not sure what that will end up being but I expect the slogan surrounding the team to be updated in the near future.

STAY TUNED: Tomorrow I'm going to write a piece on some rumblings around the organization and what it could mean for 2012 and 2013.

Still Yet Another Approach

Since Carlos Beltran froze up against that fabled Wainwright curveball, Mike Francessa has been calling for the Mets to "Break Up The Core." Now... I'll note that he did it in an egotistical, I'm a Yankee fan and therefore the light shine out of my arse, way but he's been saying it for a while. Perhaps instead of trying to find a way to win NOW... we should be looking for a way to sell EVERYONE.

Step 1: Allow Jose Reyes to go. The Mets net two draft picks and move on from their all star short stop. This means that Ruben Tejada is moved across the diamond to short and that Jordany Valdespin is promoted to starting at 2nd.

Step 2: Trade David Wright. I went over the options in this previous post. The Mets can trade Wright for a bevy of prospects without worrying TOO much over WHERE they play because we're ready to move in a new YOUNGER direction.

Step 3: Ship off Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and anyone else that might be worth even a middling prospect. Shed the payroll and stock the farm with every available person. You are going to have to potentially eat some contract but isn't it going to be worth it?

Step 4: Sign mediocre guys looking for a rebound. Sign them to one-year deals and no more.

Conclusion: The Mets would be worthless in 2012, would begin to build in 2013 and might make a run in 2014. If they stumbled at all... Mike Francessa would again call for the team to be broken up.

2012

Lineup:
1. Jordany Valdespin, 2B (L)
2. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)
3. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
7. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R) [HE CAN'T BE TRADED]

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Josh Satin, IF (R)
Jason Pridie, OF (L)

Rotation:
1. Jon Niese, LHSP
2. Chris Young, RHSP
3. Dillon Gee, RHSP
4. Javier Vazquez, RHSP
5. Chris Schwinden, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Tim Brydak, LHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP

2013

Lineup:
1. Matt Den Dekker, CF (L)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
6. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
7. Stephen Drew, SS (L)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R)

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Jordany Valdespin, IF (R)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)

Rotation:
1. Matt Harvey, RHSP
2. Jon Niese, LHSP
3. Cole Hamels, LHSP
4. Jenrry Mejia, RHSP
5. Colin McHugh, RHSP

Bullpen:
Jeurys Familia, RHRP
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Robert Carson, LHRP

The Top 25: Jon Niese

When going through the "Top 25" it might seem odd to start with Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Here's the fact: Davis and Niese WILL DEFINITELY be on the 2012 Mets. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana... they are more in the maybe camp than you might think (check tomorrow's post for more on this). Niese has established himself in two seasons as a middle of the rotation lefty with front-end potential. Plus, I truly believe that 2012 will be a breakout year for Jon.

What's To Like:

PROGRESS - While his ERA went up a bit in 2012, I like to look a little deeper. His walks went down, his strikeouts went up and his WHIP went down. It isn't leaps and bounds, but we need to expect a pitcher like Niese to not be growing by staggering amounts.

What's Not To Like:

FADING - Niese hasn't been around long enough to show a "trend" but in 2010 he faded towards the season's end and in 2011 he got hurt. One more... and it IS a trend.

NORMAL - Look at his stuff and Niese isn't exactly Nolan Ryan. He throws a 90 MPH fastball and a couple pretty slick breaking pitches. He'd be classified as a "Gamer" if he were a prospect. The silver lining (and reason I have not given up on Mark Cohoon) is that he's a lefty. Which elevates his "Normal" stuff into something "Abbie Normal".

Random And Awesome:

THE NOSE - Were this an opera, Niese might have a situation like Shostakovich's protagonist. The story by Nikolai Gogol centers around a man whose nose is removed whilst shaving. The nose goes on to rise in rank and fame, exceeding that of its former owner. Last night whilst watching Axford pitch, I wondered if part of HIS success was due to his... extravagant facial hair. This made me wonder if a batter might be distracted by a pitchers facial quirk. If that is true, then batters must have issues when faced with the gravitational force of Niese's shnoz.

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B
2. Jon Niese, SP
   

The Top 25: Ike Davis

We all like Ike, It's hard not to like a guy who plays hard and gets results. My dreams of a post-season in 2011 died long before the season was decided. When Ike Davis got hurt, and we KNEW it was bad. I knew that the Mets no longer had enough in the team for a post-season ANYTHING (Beltran or no).

What's To Like?:

POWER - Do you know what Ike Davis was slugging through all of April? (.600) THAT IS INSANE! Now... even in a smaller Citi Field this guy is going to hit a few homers. More importantly he's going to hit a LOT of doubles (Not triples... I've seen him run). Homers and doubles lead to RBIs and that is EXACTLY what I want from a #4 hitter and a first baseman.

DEFENSE - Robbed of a Gold Glove in 2010 (Check the UZR), Davis is among the premier talents field his position. Famous for his tumbling catches into the dugout, Davis' glove would have likely earned the Mets a few extra wins by itself in 2011.

What's Not To Like?:

SPEED - He has none.

INJURY - I don't fault Davis for getting hurt but I fault the Mets for the indecisive nature of dealing with it. The Mets NEED to be more sure about how they deal with players who get hurt. When you don't act decisively... players stay hurt LONGER.

Random and Awesome:

PITCHING - Davis was a pitcher in his past and has said that he would be capable and willing to come in during an extra-inning game. I'm told he can bring some heat (perhaps not as much as Desi Relaford).

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B

The Great Jose Debate Begins

Now that the season is over, the batting title is won and the team looks towards 2012, you are going to hear the name Jose Reyes A LOT. Jose was the BEST player on the Mets in 2011. Sure... Carlos Beltran had a GREAT start to the year and may have landed the Mets with a future Ace, but Jose was the brightest star.

I read a very good article in the NY Post on Jose and how the Mets are in a Lose/Lose scenario with Reyes in terms of bidding. We've heard it all before:

• He's injury prone
• He's the spark plug of the offense
• He's already lost a step
• He's one of the most POPULAR players with the fans
• The Wilpons are cheap
• The Wilpons don't want to appear cheap
• Alderson doesn't like long contracts
• He's home grown.
• We obviously can't keep him
• We obviously can't let him go

A 2012 WITH Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets sign Reyes for 6 years and $105 Mil. Reyes does start 95% of the games and has a good year. The pitching, led by Johan Santana and Jon Niese, holds strong and the Mets win the division with healthy batting out-put from Reyes, Wright, Davis and Jason Bay. Matt Harvey is called up in September and surges to a great opening display, and will be the #3 pitcher in the playoff rotation.

Glass Half Empty: The Mets are forced to offer Reyes 6 years and a vesting option for a 7th. Reyes has an okay year but is hobbled before the All-Star break and starts only 65% of the games. David Wright continues to be hot and cold while Jason Bay is benched in favor Fernando Martinez. The team finishes 5th in the division as the Nationals promote Bryce Harper and surge ahead.

A 2012 WITHOUT Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets watch Jose Reyes leave and use the money they would have spent on Reyes signing Yu Darvish. Meanwhile Ruben Tejada is given the job at SS and Reese Havens wins the starting 2B job in spring training. The story of the year is how the Mets are on the rise as Darvish sparkles and Havens earns an All-Star selection in his first year. Harvey joins the team in late September and the Met 2013 future looks bright.

Glass Half Empty: Not only DON'T the Mets sign Reyes but they fail to land a single legit star. Attendance dwindles and David Wright announces to the media that he would like to be traded. To make matters worse, Johan Santana doesn't pitch a single inning and the team is completely out of the playoff race by Mid-June. Harvey and Familia both get promoted but struggle under the pressure of being looked on as saviors.

Right... so... probably something in the middle of those scenarios either way it shakes out. Here is the basic gist. The Mets sign Reyes, they WILL pay too much. The Mets don't sign Reyes, they get two picks and become the laughing stock of the big-market teams (losing countless fans). I love Reyes as a fan but I love the Mets too and want them to win.

Frankly I don't envy Alderson's position...

The Young, The Fat and The Lefty

Like the Good, the Bad and the Ugly the pitchers of note in this upcoming offseason. I read a nice piece this morning on the merits of signing C.J. Wilson but I can't be sure I agree with it. Lets just evaluate the options before we jump head-long into that fray.

The Young:

Yu Darvish
Born: August 16, 1986
Height: 196cm
Weight: 98kg
Throws: Right
Bats: Right

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2005	14	5	5	97	7	48	52	3.53
2006	25	12	5	128	12	64	115	2.89
2007	26	15	5	123	9	49	210	1.82
2008	25	16	4	136	11	44	208	1.88
2009	23	15	5	118	9	45	167	1.73
2010	26	12	8	158	5	47	222	1.78
2011	23	16	5	128	4	30	223	1.47

Yu has been good in Japan from the first year he pitched but he's also gotten better. Starting 2012 as a 25 year old, he's likely the second best overall talent available in free agency. However he COULD be the most expensive.

We all remember Matsuzaka and the insane price Boston paid for negotiating rights to him. The Wilpons could be looking at a posting fee in the same $50 Million range (though I think the climate of spending has changed) and that is a VERY un-Wilpon thing to do.

The Fat:

Carsten Charles Sabathia
Born: July 21, 1980
Height: 6' 7''
Weight: 290
Bats: Left

Throws: Left

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2005	31	15	10	185	19	62	161	4.03
2006	28	12	11	182	17	44	172	3.22
2007	34	19	7	238	20	37	209	3.21
2008	35	17	10	223	19	59	251	2.70
2009	34	19	8	197	18	67	197	3.37
2010	34	21	7	209	20	74	197	3.18
2011	31	19	8	213	15	55	216	2.93

Sabathia is likely to opt out of his enormous contract with the Yankees to sign an even more enormous contract with... well... probably the Yankees. He's already making around (or over) $23 Million per year and his new contract is likely to be higher or (at the very least) longer.

But...

Wouldn't it be nice to steal talent from those cross-town rivals? Sabathia is the only TRULY proven Ace in the free agent market (Carpenter WAS and Ace... now he's just Old). If the Wilpons HAD to shell out big money, wouldn't it make sense to do it for proven talent?

The Lefty:

Christopher John Wilson
Born: November 18, 1980
Height: 6' 1''
Weight: 210
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
College: Loyola Marymount

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2010	33	15	8	161	10	93	170	3.35
2011	31	16	6	178	15	67	190	3.01

Wilson has only been a starter for a few seasons but he's been a roaring success. Add that he's in the AL... in a hitter's park... and he's JUST north of 30 and he seems like a pretty good option.

Of the legitimate free agents, he's probably the guy most clubs will be targeting. Sure... Sabathia is more proven and Darvish is younger with a higher ceiling... but Wilson is attainable. Well... if he wasn't that "attainable" guy for EVERYONE.

Here's My Point:
The Mets NEED to improve pitching and cannot rely on every prospect turning into the next Nolan Ryan or Doc Gooden. Instead we need to use free agency to protect us in case we actually wind up with Paul Wilsons and Bill Pulsiphers. If I'm running the team I... still can't bid on Sabathia he'll REALLY just cost too much. HOWEVER before I go hog-wild for Wilson I'm trying to win posting rights on Darvish. Lefty or not... Darvish is the best pitching value available in the next offseason.

Given the choice, who would you try for first?