The Second Base Race

While the main debate remains whether the Mets will re-sign Jose Reyes and/or trade David Wright, I want to talk about a position with options. The Mets have plenty of options for who will end up playing second base, let's look at some pros and cons.

Daniel Murphy:
Murphy can hit, he doesn't have a TON of power but he can hit. There is hardly a soul alive that doesn't think Murphy has a legit MLB bat. There are PLENTY of people who don't think he has an MLB position. The fact is he's played okay at first base, reasonably well at third, passably at second... and not so great in the outfield. Before the season I was one of the people who picked Murphy to beat out Castillo, Emaus and Turner for the starting job based on his bat. I was not at all surprised when he wound up there after a few weeks.

Pros - Murphy's bat is what makes us fans clamor for him getting into the starting lineup. He hits for average with some solid power and very good contact.

Cons - Murphy is not a natural fielder. He makes most of the plays but will not do so well and WILL lead to errors no matter where you play him.

Odds - 10:1 (Murphy's biggest issue isn't his glove, it's that he's not viewed as a starter. Some bloggers will talk about the need for defense up the middle, but ESPECIALLY if Reyes and Wright are going away, the Mets NEED to pump as much offense into the lineup as possible.)

Ruben Tejada:
It's no secret that I'm not a huge Tejada fan. Ruben's bat does nothing to excite me and he's always struck me as a solid backup IF. He does show flashes of contact at the plate, but doesn't provide power or speed in such a way that I groan when I think of him as a starting everyday player. Ruben gets his support based on his outstanding glove work which gets rave reviews at SS and 2B. A big thing to consider is that if Reyes leaves town he has NO chance of starting at second as he's almost guaranteed to start at SS.

Pros - The biggest pro is his glove but I guess you could also love his age as it might allow him growth. Any way I cut it, I can't see that meaning power or speed... which translates into minimal production.

Cons - Tejada may occasionally hit for contact which keeps his BA above .260, but his power is non-existent and his speed is minimal.

Odds - 4:1 (Tejada has a good shot to win the starting 2B job IF Reyes is back with the team. If Reyes is not I would say he has NO shot... as he'll be the starting SS.)

Justin Turner:
Big Red was a big, pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011. He doesn't have a ton of speed or power... like Tejada but he's got double power and seemed to get a ton of clutch hits. In the field he's not exactly a dynamo with the glove and leaves something to be desired, but he CAN handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st. The fact remains that Turner strikes almost everyone as a backup IF. He DOES do more with the bat than Tejada and he DOES have more fielding chops than Murphy but does any of that make him a SOLID starter?

Pros - Jeterlike intangibles? How else can you quantify that he simply seemed to collect BIG hits.

Cons - Completely average. He doesn't do anything that is THAT impressive.

Odds - 6:1 (If Reyes is gone, he has a VERY good chance of at least starting the year on second. His biggest competition would be Jordany Valdespin and my bet would be that Terry would prefer to avoid the immaturity issues that Jordany brings to the table.)

Josh Satin:
Most bloggers love Josh. He's not supposed to be anything special but the guy keeps hitting. I don't think he's a great option to start at 2nd, he's like Justin Turner with less MLB experience. For that reason he's really an after-thought in the race for the position. At the same time he will be a part of the bench and from what I've seen him do in the minors, I expect he'll be useful in whatever his role ends up. BECAUSE of that I think he could work his way into Terry's good graces for a time-share at second by the half-way point of 2012.

Pros - Josh Satin has a GREAT eye. I don't know if it will mean a ton of walks in the majors as pitchers will not be trying to pitch around him, but we can expect he'll not swing at bad pitches.

Cons - Defense is not his strongest suit and though I don't think he'd hurt us, I can already hear the people calling in and saying defense is the most important thing up the middle.

Odds - 15:1 (The odds are not good that he gets ANY starting position, but he SHOULD make the roster.

Jordany Valdespin:
I like Valdespin a lot, but I'm not a manager and I don't have to deal with discipline. Of all the candidates his glove is among the best, his power is among the best and he has the most speed. Should Reyes leave... Jordany WILL be with the Mets as they need the legs in the lineup. He's not the smartest base runner, but that will come with time. The knock against Jordany is his work ethic. Terry loves gritty guys who will kill themselves for their team. Jordany has been disciplined by minor league teams multiple times and that is a bad sign.

Pros - Raw talent is all in the kid's favor. He's got a glove nearly as good as Tejada's, power similar to Murphy and more speed than anyone else on the depth chart for second.

Cons - He's a bit of a problem in terms of discipline.

Odds - 13:1 (He's a bit of a long-shot to make the team unless Reyes leaves town. Then he's a longshot to NOT be the starting 2B.)

Reese Havens:
Reese is the wild card. He's still the 2B of the future and he's got the skills to blow most of the other players away. The issue with Reese is the same issue he's had for years. He cannot stay healthy. I love that he did not go to the AFL and instead is focusing on conditioning and weight training to get him healthy for 2012-13. It makes him a longer shot to win the job this spring, but if Wright and Reyes are gone it's going to be hard to keep him out of Queens. We could have a redux of the 2010 Ike Davis situation very quickly.

Pros - GREAT bat. The guy commands the plate, has a good and powerful line drive swing and plays reasonably good defense.

Cons - HEALTH! If he cannot stay on the field he's useless.

Odds - 20:1 (It's a long shot for him to win the job but a longer shot for him not to earn it if he's healthy.)

Don't Find The Best 25, Find The RIGHT 25

Apparently a ninja attacked me with a throwing star and I chose to defend myself by swallowing it. So I'm gritting through immense throat discomfort as I'm writing about the first thing I thought of that I could tie into the Mets.

"Miracle" was on this morning. First, it's a great sports movie (Good Sports Movie = You Care About the Team ... GREAT Sports Movie = After It's Over You Want To Go Out And Play That Sport). I could only stay through the beginning but something Herb Brook's (Kurt Russell) said stuck with me.

"I'm not looking for the best players, Craig. I'm looking for the right ones."

THAT made me think of the Mets...

Question: Is Lucas Duda a Top 20 RF?

Answer: No.

Question: Is he a premier choice to hit third for a team?

Answer: No.

Question: Might he be the best fit for the Mets right now?

Answer: Yes.

My Point:

Maybe instead of trying to build a team of great players who should succeed based on their raw skill (Like the Yankees), the Mets should build a team based on dynamics. Where one player's skills makes up for his compatriots deficiency. It's just a thought but... maybe Josh Satin, Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans are the players we should be focusing on this offseason. Maybe THEY are simply the RIGHT players to make the Mets winners again.

Q and A with Mack and... IF Josh Satin

Hey folks. We're talking today to second baseman... err, no, outfielder... err, well... first baseman... we'll let him explain this... It's the Mets Josh Satin.  Hey Josh... hell of a ride this year, huh?

Satin:  Thanks, Mack. It was definitely a fun year that ended with my childhood dreams finally coming true. Looking back it is pretty unbelievable to think I was playing in Binghamton in late July and then found myself starting in Washington DC only five weeks later.

Mack:  Well, let's go back a year ago when you and I discussed this and let's make sure everyone realizes that it was YOUR choice to go back to Binghamton and be a starter, plus work at first base.  That is how I remember it, right?

Satin:   It wasn't exactly my choice to go back to Binghamton, but the Mets decided it was in my best interest to go back there and enable me to play every day and play a multiple positions to benefit my future. I was able to play almost equal games at second, third, and first which I think has given me a great advantage in my career. I also benefitted from last year fall instructional league because I was given plenty of one on one time with infield coordinator Kevin Morgan among other instructors. This enabled me to be ready to play all of these positions without having to learn new spots during this past season

Mack:  Josh, you turned in another stellar season in 2011 and it seemed like you were still blocked for advancement. Take us through that day you found out you were on the way to the Mets.

Satin:   When it's your protection year and you are having a successful season it’s hard to ignore the thoughts that you have a chance to get called up especially when you play for the Mets and there is so much media coverage and a lot of them are saying that I might get called up on September 1st. So that day was a crazy day for me. A lot of the guys on the team were telling me I was getting called up but you never know until it actually happens. The day was normal from the standpoint that we had a game and I went about my business the same way I always do. After the game I was sitting at my locker and our manager Tim Tuefel came up to me and said to meet him in his office. Obviously a million thoughts went through my mind and when i got there we started to talk about the game. I think we lost a close one that day so we were talking about what went wrong. Then at the end he said by the way you are going to the big leagues, congrats. I can’t even describe the feelings I felt. And Tuef has seen me from the first year I got drafted so he knows how hard I've had to work and how difficult it's been for me to get to this point so it was awesome sharing that moment with him

Mack:  And that first Met game was an away game, wasn't it?

Satin:   Actually my first game on the team was at home but the first game I played in was in Washington DC

Mack:  That's what it was... I was close.  Okay... first... in CitiField... in uniform.... "hard to stand up"?

Satin:   i was surprisingly relaxed that first day, maybe it was because I wasn't in the lineup and was able to take it all in or maybe it was because everyone was so welcoming but I was able to "stand up"

Mack:  Okay..  now.... let's get to that first at bat....

Satin:   Well, it was my third game in the big leagues and in both the first two games I had gone on deck but didn't get an at bat. both times the guy hitting before me made an out and I was unable to hit but I think that I was so nervous while on deck that when I finally got in the box to hit in the third game I wasn't that nervous. I was facing Livan Hernandez and after great scouting reports from teammates I got a breaking ball in a 2/2 count at 63 mph. I’m not gonna say I was looking for it, but a lot of the guys were telling me he likes to throw it with two strikes so i was ready for it and fortunate enough to line it into left field for a single. Amazing feeling

Mack:   I can only imagine.  You worked hard and long for it Josh and you deserved it. So few go as far as you already have and the world is still ahead of you. Looking ahead, I don't have to tell you everything starts with what Jose Reyes does so we'll just table the speculation until then. Do you have any plans for the off-season to improve the game? Are you on a Nitro program or is that just for the "minor leaguers"? :)

Satin:   I’m actually going to Venezuela on Monday for 5 weeks to get a few more at bats and to work hard defensively

Mack:  Great. Back with Tuff and Dylan.  Josh, from all of us that were there since the beginning... we're very proud of you and thanks for taking us through the most exciting day in your career...

Satin:  Thank you and thanks for your continual support.

Cutnpaste: Josh Satin, Aderlin Rodriguez, Francisco Rodriguez, Mike Cameron, Stefan Welsh

9-15-11: - http://centralny.ynn.com/content/sports/557217/satin-named-mets-top-minor-leaguer   - Life just keeps getting better for Joshua Satin, who picked up his first major league hit in his first at-bat with the Mets Labor Day weekend and who has also picked up a pretty major minor-league honor. Satin has been named the New York Mets minor-leaguer of the year after hitting .323 with 12 homers and 76 RBI's while splitting time with Binghamton and AAA Buffalo this season. Satin was named an Eastern League all-star this summer, the third straight year he has earned a minor league all-star honor. The 26-year-old in his fourth season with the organization became the first B-Met ever to hit for the cycle and strung together a 15-game hit streak with the Bisons

9-15-11: - http://scoutingthesally.com/new-york-mets-third-base-prospect-aderlin-rodriguez-ranking-2011  - The scouting report for (Aderlin) Rodriguez after his 2011 season remains similar from a power standpoint. He’s still young, has plenty of power potential, but the holes in his offensive game were really exposed in full season baseball. His future at 3B is also now even more in doubt than at this time last year even though he appears to be in better physical shape. I am not a big fan of players comps, but at this point in his career, it is hard not to compare him to former San Francisco Giants prospect Angel Villalona, although he was admittedly younger as a player in the “Sally”. They share similar body types, similar prospect profiles and even similar statistics in the Sally League. Rodriguez has the potential to be the best power bat in the Mets system, but 2011 has made it more difficult to visualize.

9-15-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/7026/uncategorized/k-rod-shows-true-colors  - On Tuesday, reliever Francisco Rodriguez told a national baseball columnist that he wasn’t happy with the lack of save opportunities he’s had since the Milwaukee Brewers traded for him in July. When asked about his comments a day later, Rodriguez didn’t back off. “I wasn’t lying,” he said before the Brewers’ 6-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. “There’s been plenty of save opportunities, and I’ve pitched once in the ninth inning and it wasn’t a save. “I’m not happy. That’s the bottom line for me. They told me one thing; they haven’t done it. And I stand by what I said. “I’m not lying. I’m not creating something out of nowhere. I’m just saying the facts, and that’s pretty much it.”

9-15-11: - The Marlins cut outfielder Mike Cameron late Monday night for conduct detrimental to the team. Two sources on Wednesday gave the reason: Cameron got into a verbal altercation with a flight attendant on the team's charter flight from Pittsburgh to Atlanta on Sunday. The altercation did not turn physical, but the charter company filed a complaint. The Marlins' front office believed it could not keep Cameron after the incident. He wasn't in the team's longterm plans, anyway, and his release gives the Marlins a chance to give Bryan Peterson (.280) more at-bats over the final two weeks of the season. Cameron was hitting .238. - Read more: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2011/09/umncaa-investigation-update-plus-dolphins-heat-marlins.html#ixzz1Y3A33jtK  

9-15-11: - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/international-affairs/2011/2612324.html   - Australia's roster includes fewer affiliated minor leaguers. The group includes ex-big leaguers Justin Huber and Chris Oxspring; first baseman Stefan Welch (Mets), coming off a .271/.361/.438 season with 16 home runs in the high Class A Florida State League; World Baseball Classic veteran James Beresford (Twins) at shortstop; outfielder Tim Kennelly (Phillies) and his brother Matt (Braves), a catcher; and righthander Hayden Beard (Padres).

Cutnpaste: Omir Santos, Josh Satin, R.A. Dickey, Moneyball, Mechanics

9-5-11: - http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/mlb/baseball?r=1  - Tigers recalled C Omir Santos from Triple-A Toledo. Santos will function as the Tigers' emergency backup catcher down the stretch. The 30-year-old from Puerto Rico has managed one hit in eight big league at-bats this year

9-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/09/prospect-pulse-buffalo-2012-help-on-the-way.html  - Josh Satin - Satin continues to hit at every level he plays and has a .307 BA for his career, his lifetime OBP is .397. This season, split between AA and AAA, his slash line is .322/.411/.493. He is a September call-up for the Mets, and has been added to the 40 man roster, so we should get to see his debut any day now at Citi. Next year he should be in the ST mix as a back-up 1B-2B-3B and PH, but with Evans blocking his path, he will probably spend 2012 as insurance for the big club, as he works on his defense at AAA, while playing 1B, 2B, and 3B.

9-5-11: - http://www.latimes.com/sports/sns-rt-bbo-metsmtze793x3w0gt-20110904,0,794512.story  - RHP R.A. Dickey had gone more than a month without a victory before he finally picked up a win Monday, going seven shutout innings against the Marlins. The wait wasn't so long this time as he followed that up by pitching on three days rest for the first time this season and he got the victory over the Nationals with six innings, allowing three runs.

9-5-11: - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14921  - There's one scene that sticks out in my mind, though, if only because it made me realize something about the Moneyball phenomenon as a whole. You'll remember it from the book as the chapter where Billy Beane simultaneously wheedles Ricardo Rincon out of the Indians and leaves Brian Sabean wandering around the Embarcadero wearing a barrel. That moment is the heart of Michael Lewis's book. In the film, it seems almost out of place, as if some poor assistant rushing a latte to Mr. Sorkin had tripped and fallen and gotten his script crossed up with 10 pages from another movie. What to that point had felt a little like, I dunno, The Bad News Bears Learn Microsoft Excel became something else entirely. Pitt works the phones, and Jonah Hill beaches himself in the corner of the screen, and the whole enjoyable hustle unfolds like something out of another movie—Glengarry Glen Ross, maybe. And that's when it occurred to me: Moneyball is, very quietly, a story about a con.

9-5-11: - beyondtheboxscore.  - When scouts begin their evaluation on a pitcher, it’s usually during his warm-ups (once he’s one the mound). They don’t hold their gun or stopwatch, but instead simply watch the mechanics and delivery of the hurler. That’s because for some scouts, mechanics are the initial attribute that scouts evaluate. First and foremost, they look to see if he can repeat his delivery. If he can, that’s obviously a plus. Even though all pitchers are different and some have their own unique style, scouts typically want to see a clean and smooth delivery. Things usually flow from there, as you can’t do much of anything should you be unable to consistently repeat your mechanics. Scouts prefer clean and smooth deliveries for a variety of reasons, one of which is to prevent injury. You want to make sure he isn’t changing his arm speed when throwing his off-speed stuff. That generally occurs in the arms of younger pitchers, but tinkering can fix that. On a similar note, changing his arm slot when throwing off-speed pitches isn't acceptable either. Tinkering can fix that too, but you don’t want to see the pitcher lose bite on his stuff when changing a delivery flaw. However, consistent mechanics are more important by a mile.

Mets Q and A: - Wally Murphy on The Sand Gnats

Mack: - Welcome Wally. No one has seen more from this team this year than you have. First question is really simply. Name the one player, and why, that is definitely going to be a star in the pros for the New York Mets?


Wally: - That is a good question. There are several players on the team this year that could play for the Mets in the future. The player I think will advance to the top is Josh Edgin, who pitched great in relief for the Gnats the first half-he was (1-0), ERA under 1, with 16 saves. His fast ball was 90 plus and had a great curve ball. I think he could pitch relief or come in the game to get a left handed batter out.


Mack: - I agree. I think Josh might make Queens by the beginning of 2013. Let's talk about Aderlin Rodriquez. Sadly, you've watch a lot of Mets prospects kick the ball around the infield in the last couple of years. We all know A-Rod can hit the ball out of the park, but is he as bad a fielder as the stats say?


Wally: - Aderlin Rodriquez has made lots of errors at third this season. He has a great throwing arm to first and has made a bunch of super plays at third. He is only 19 so they may keep working with him at third. Maybe he will play first base in the future.


Mack: - Regarding the rotation, is there one pitcher that stood out this season from the rest?


Wally: - I was impressed with Angel Cuan pitching well this season leading the team with 10 wins. Not overpowering, his fast ball is 85-86 range, but has good breaking pitches, moves the ball in and out and up and down in the strike zone. I would call him a "crafty" pitcher. Hope he does well in St. Lucie next year.


Mack: - You've watched this team for years now... a little word association. Cory Vaughn or Matt den Dekker?


Wally: - Both play very good defense in the outfield. Slight edge in hitting goes to Den Dekker.


Mack: - Better bat... Aderlin Rodriguez or Josh Satin


Wally: - Josh Satin has hit for good average (.300) at all of his stops. Aderlin Rodriquez has more power (17) home runs, but is hitting around 220. The upside for Rodriquez is that he is only 19 years old, and has time to improve his average and be a more consistent hitter to go with his pop.


Mack: - Wally, your thought on "DC". He didn't have the year everyone expected....


Wally: - The injury slowed down Darrell Ceciliani and he has been hitting better the second half (.260's). He is a tremendous center fielder and it seems like he runs down every ball hit to left-center, center, and right center. Only 4 errors for the year. Good speed leading the team in stolen bases with 25. I look for him to hit for a higher average next year.


Mack: - Wally, any other thoughts on any of the other players this season?


Wally: - Albert Cordero has improved his hitting and made adjustments to lead the Gnats in hitting (around .280) the second half. Gnats pitching has been strong, Angel Cuan (10-3), Adam Kolarek (7-0), Chase Huchingson (7-2), Taylor Whitenton (5-4), closer Hamilton Bennett (2-0) with 14 saves. The entire pitching staff has pitched well leading the SAL with the lowest team ERA.

Stock: Josh Stinson, Josh Satin, Cam Maron, Juan Gamboa, Dustin Lawley

9-1-11: - Stock Up – RP – Josh Stinson – the Mets promoted RP Josh Stinson from Binghamton to the new York Mets today.Stinosn had a bad season as a Buffalo starter, took a step back and has produced stats of 4-3, 3.99, in 27 outings for Binghamton. We all know how bad the Mets bullpen has faired this year. What the fuck?

9-1-11: - Stock Up: - IF Josh Satin – Satin was promoted to the Mets for the month of September. I don’t expect Josh to get many reps because TC is already on the record about playing Nick Evans at 1B and Ruben Tejada at second. That’s okay. He deserves the cup of coffee.

9-1-11: - Stock Up – C Cam Maron – Maron was promoted on Thursday to Savannah for the playoff series. Savannah las lost a bunch of its bats this year to St. Lucie and Maron will do a lot better behind the plate thatn the other options the Sand Gnats have.

9-1-11: - Stock Up – SS Juan Gamboa – Gamboa was promoted on Thursday to Savannah for the playoff series. Gamboa has had very little press so far as a Met, but he’s holidng his own and turning heads at the lower levels.

9-11-11: - Stock Up – OF Dustin Lawley – Lawley was promoted on Thursday to Savannah for the playoff series. Lawley has already proved he can produce at the lower levels and his bat is much welcomed for the Sand Gnats playoffs.