Looking At Things From THEIR Perspective

I've done a lot of posting about what I'd do, or at least LIKE to do if I were running the Mets. I mean I've listed every solution from signing Reyes to going after Albert Pujols and back again. I think it might be more important to look at things from the perspective about the guys paying the bills.

Let us face some facts:

• Attendance Is Down
• The Team Isn't Winning
• They Either Participated In Or Were Taken By A Ponzi Scheme
• They Will Need To Pay Irving Picard Between $83 and $383 Million

Let us also remember that a year spent rebuilding without stars like Wright and/or Reyes means LOWER attendance, LESS wins and LESS revenue with which to pay Irving Picard. So... forgetting what is in the best interest of the team... what is in the best interest of the OWNERS?

Let us look at assets:

• David Wright, the face of the franchise, he's a homegrown talent with a large fan following. He's had a couple of rougher seasons now, and might net you more talent in a trade.
• Johan Santana, He's beyond the point where he's a draw for fans because he hasn't pitched in a long time and he's not the pitcher he was.
• Ike Davis, He's the future face of the offense which is fine, but he won't draw big box office numbers by himself.
• Scrappy Go-Getters, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and R.A. Dickey might all be fine players but they aren't getting fans into the seats.
• Generation 2K, You have a crop of TOP starting pitching talent in the farm but it could be over a year away and could fizzle like Generation K did.

If Alderson did nothing, and let Reyes walk there isn't enough there to keep the fans interested. The Wilpons WANT fans to be interested. They would love to bring in an Albert Pujols who could single-handedly bring in a slew of fans with his reputation alone. However, Pujols does NOT make sense for the Mets and their pitcher's park. So... what should the Wilpons do to keep fans in the seats for 2012?

The Fan Plan:

• Re-Sign Jose Reyes - (It's a good-will gesture to the fans that you are not going to play it cheap in a big city like NY. It says, "Yes, we can afford to keep our home grown talent.")
• Lock Up Wright - (Does he live up to the marquee billing? Maybe not, but he's the face of the team and you need to maintain the face of your team until you can establish a new one. Think the Yankees with Jeter into Cano.)
• Let Alderson Find His Gems - (I'd love the Mets to anti-up and get a Yu Darvish or C.J. Wilson but that is a little much. Instead let Alderson take low-risk chances on guys like: Chris Young, Scott Kazmir etc...)
• Get A Legit Closer - (For a short-term deal. I'm starting to feel like Francisco Cordero is the best fit because he can come in with a 1-2 year deal, do his job... then retire.)

If the Mets did those things they could stay relatively competitive in 2012 and still start promoting the crop of young talent from 2012 to 2014. This way you aren't sacrificing the future but also not giving the fans reason to panic and/or abandon ship. It is in the Wilpon's best FINANCIAL interest for Alderson to spend SOME money.

Met's Undergoing A Facelift

Every so often a brand or company needs to change things up because what they've become "Known" for isn't a positive. At this point it is better to DROP brand equity and RE-ESTABLISH a new and more POSITIVE image. Think of the big box pizza places:

Pizza Hut - Your favorites. Your Pizza Hut.

Papa John's - Better ingredients, better Pizza... Papa John's

Over a year ago Domino'ss decided to change things up. Domino's was and IS known for CHEAP pizza. You can eat your weight in bread, sauce and cheese for around $20. However nobody ever thought of Domino's as GOOD pizza. Last year they decided to change things up. They started to run commercials where they acknowledged their short-comings and promised to change things. What has followed is one of the most succesful ad campaigns in corporate history. Domino's has never been regarded more favorably by consumers and their sales numbers are way up from where they had been.

Why am I talking about pizza? It's a good question. So let's look at some big-market baseball teams:

New York Yankees - A Team of Legends

Philadelphia Phillies - The Greatest Rotation in History

What are the Mets know as? Lovable Losers? Plucky Underdogs? Choke Artists? Financial Fraud Criminals? The OTHER Team in New York? I'm betting that the Wilpons are looking to change the team and I don't think changes will be small. They started when the Wilpons signed a GM like Sandy Alderson. The Mets were not going to invest in bad contracts with over-achieving players. They were going to change things. Changing the very way we expect to see a New York team run.

Step 1: Clear House

The Mets have already expunged Omar Minaya and his cronies from the franchise. HOWEVER... it wasn't so much the front-office that needed to be cleared as the overall soul of that office's team.

I now believe (THIS IS THE GLASS HALF FULL GUY) that the Mets will be cutting ties with David Wright and quite possibly ALSO Jose Reyes. I think they'll try to trade Johan Santana and I think the Mets are gearing for a resurgent 2013 and a big run in 2014.

That doesn't make the Id of my inner sport's fan very happy, but it does appease my inner Super Igo. If I think logically, I think the Mets can build a winner in two years by cleaning house and starting from basically scratch. If they go other routes... spending money and trading prospects... I can no longer be sure that the Mets will ever break through the ceiling of the other teams in their division.

Step 2: Establish A NEW Brand

The Mets of the Omar Minaya era were headlined by Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Johan Santana, David Wright and Jose Reyes (Jason Bay?). This was not the Steve Phillips Mets where stars went elsewhere. This was the team who went out and GOT the marquee players.

There is a new generation of Mets on the horizon and I TRULY believe they will make up the future of the franchise. Therefore the Mets will be known for nurturing a crop of pitchers up from the minors and creating a pitching team to rival those jerks who wear red and white.

Step 3: Win The Fans

Convincing me that I can win in two years if I let my favorite players go is one thing. Convincing fans to not abandon ship when the franchise stops paying for top talent this next season is another. The Mets are on the verge of alienating a HUGE percentage of fans. It's going to be rougher for the Wilpons than you might think.

If the Mets don't spend in 2012... attendance will dwindle, viewership will drop and ad sales will take a nose dive. So... the Mets need to give the Met fans a message to help them through. I'm not sure what that will end up being but I expect the slogan surrounding the team to be updated in the near future.

STAY TUNED: Tomorrow I'm going to write a piece on some rumblings around the organization and what it could mean for 2012 and 2013.

The Great Jose Debate Begins

Now that the season is over, the batting title is won and the team looks towards 2012, you are going to hear the name Jose Reyes A LOT. Jose was the BEST player on the Mets in 2011. Sure... Carlos Beltran had a GREAT start to the year and may have landed the Mets with a future Ace, but Jose was the brightest star.

I read a very good article in the NY Post on Jose and how the Mets are in a Lose/Lose scenario with Reyes in terms of bidding. We've heard it all before:

• He's injury prone
• He's the spark plug of the offense
• He's already lost a step
• He's one of the most POPULAR players with the fans
• The Wilpons are cheap
• The Wilpons don't want to appear cheap
• Alderson doesn't like long contracts
• He's home grown.
• We obviously can't keep him
• We obviously can't let him go

A 2012 WITH Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets sign Reyes for 6 years and $105 Mil. Reyes does start 95% of the games and has a good year. The pitching, led by Johan Santana and Jon Niese, holds strong and the Mets win the division with healthy batting out-put from Reyes, Wright, Davis and Jason Bay. Matt Harvey is called up in September and surges to a great opening display, and will be the #3 pitcher in the playoff rotation.

Glass Half Empty: The Mets are forced to offer Reyes 6 years and a vesting option for a 7th. Reyes has an okay year but is hobbled before the All-Star break and starts only 65% of the games. David Wright continues to be hot and cold while Jason Bay is benched in favor Fernando Martinez. The team finishes 5th in the division as the Nationals promote Bryce Harper and surge ahead.

A 2012 WITHOUT Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets watch Jose Reyes leave and use the money they would have spent on Reyes signing Yu Darvish. Meanwhile Ruben Tejada is given the job at SS and Reese Havens wins the starting 2B job in spring training. The story of the year is how the Mets are on the rise as Darvish sparkles and Havens earns an All-Star selection in his first year. Harvey joins the team in late September and the Met 2013 future looks bright.

Glass Half Empty: Not only DON'T the Mets sign Reyes but they fail to land a single legit star. Attendance dwindles and David Wright announces to the media that he would like to be traded. To make matters worse, Johan Santana doesn't pitch a single inning and the team is completely out of the playoff race by Mid-June. Harvey and Familia both get promoted but struggle under the pressure of being looked on as saviors.

Right... so... probably something in the middle of those scenarios either way it shakes out. Here is the basic gist. The Mets sign Reyes, they WILL pay too much. The Mets don't sign Reyes, they get two picks and become the laughing stock of the big-market teams (losing countless fans). I love Reyes as a fan but I love the Mets too and want them to win.

Frankly I don't envy Alderson's position...

Paying More To Make More

My post yesterday discussed the three biggest pitchers on the market this offseason and the biggest holds people seem to have are about the budget. The Wilpons don't have the money and the budget will not be over $110 Million. Okay... fine... then the Mets attendance will continue to diminish and the process of building up the fan base will take even longer.

If the Mets spent NOTHING: They let Reyes go and used minor leaguers for every hole they had left, they would lose fans in DROVES. The $20-ish Million saved by not signing Reyes will bes LOST in yearly revenue between ticket sales and lowered merchandise sales.

If the Mets ONLY resign Reyes: They are merely treading water. While teams like the Yankees and Phillies are going out and gaining talent and improving the Mets become stagnant and lose fans or potential fans of the future.

If the Mets signed Reyes AND another SUPERSTAR player: They earn themselves buzz and press and become a magnet for new fans. They also energize the existing fan base. I'm not saying that they immediately earn back every dime they invest and there is plenty of risk but it's simply to risky not to send an IMPROVED product onto the field in 2012.