Wright To Colorado, RIGHT For Mets?

So... you might have noticed some additional news items relating to Colorado. This all dates back to rumors that the Rockies were "Very Interested" in David Wright. Being interested and negotiating are two different things but I'm feeling more and more like the teams might be getting closer to negotiating a trade than we might think.

First Things First:
I'm going to state this as simply as I can. If Colorado is not ready to give Drew Pomeranz and Nolan Arenado in the same deal for Wright, the Mets NEED to walk away. NEED NEED NEED.

For The Wright Fans:
I'm a David Wright fan. He is my favorite player in baseball and it will hurt deeply if the Mets were to trade him away. Just remember that David Wright could get you THREE or MORE players who could all have Wright-Sized impacts on the team. The flip-side being... they could each never have ANY positive impact on the team. It's a risk, but in terms probability it's also more likely that with 3-4 guys you'll have more impact help than with 1. Add to this the HUGE financial splash

Also, the Mets would go from having one of the MOST depleted farms in baseball to something rivaling the recent Tampa Bay. For a team that, when good, will make a good deal of money the Wilpons will be set to rake in good profits from 2013 on for a solid run of a decade or longer.

What We'd Be Getting:
Any offer from Colorado NEEDS to start with Drew Pomeranz... at least, if they want David Wright it does. The young lefty and potential Ace will be the hardest jewel to pry from Colorado, but I think the Mets can and WOULD. After Drew you can look at Nolan Arenado (3rd Base Prospect) who has a good eye and lots of power. He'll start 2012 in AA but is likely on track to debut in the majors as soon as 2013.

Then... it gets hazy. You COULD try and get Wilin Rosario. I try to, but if he can't be included it doesn't break the deal. I'd prefer at lease one more NON-Pitching prospect in the deal no matter what.

The Reyes Question:
If Wright goes, what do the Mets do with Reyes?

A) The Mets are CLEARLY rebuilding and they don't need to spend money on Reyes when the team is going to finish dismally in 2012.

B) The Met 2012 might look bleak but they should be ready in 2013 and there are NO top SS's in the organizational depth chart. Reyes has plenty of value for 2013 and beyond.

So... I don't know what the Mets would do... could go either way.

What Does This Wrightless Future Look Like?

2012 Team:

C: Josh Thole (Perhaps Wilin Rosario via trade)
1B: Ike Davis (WOW! A position without drama)
2B: Jordany Valdespin (Havens is around the corner)
SS: Ruben Tejada (When Havens is ready the battle for SS begins)
3B: Zach Lutz (Turner and Satin are in the mix)
LF: Jason Bay (I think he will be downgraded/benched/dropped before 2013)
CF: Angel Pagan (Trade Deadline departure and debut of Matt Den Dekker)
RF: Lucas Duda (Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis wait in the wings)

SP1: R.A. Dickey (He's not a #1 pitcher but he's OURs... for now)
SP2: Jon Niese (He's #2 to protect his confidence)
SP3: Dillon Gee (Expect Harvey, Familia or Mejia to take this spot by mid-June)
SP4: Drew Pomeranz (Assuming he's in the deal he's the best on the staff)
SP5: Chris Schwinden (Expect one of the other prospects or Gee by late June)

CL: Jonathan Broxton (Wow! We signed a free agent?)
SU: Bobby Parnell (We WON'T stop trying to get him over the hump)
SU: Pedro Beato (Feels like he has better stuff than Acosta)
MR: Manny Acosta (Will be the MOST USED reliever in baseball)
MR: Tim Byrdak (He's going to be our top lefty until the deadline)
MR: Daniel Herrera (We NEED to have two lefties on the bullpen)
LR: D.J. Carrasco (We'll trade him if and when we can)

2013 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Kirk Niewenhuis
CF: Matt Den Dekker
RF: Fernando Martinez (Lucas Duda could just be THAT good and still be here)

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Colin McHugh

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Bobby Parnell
SU: Jonathan Broxton
MR: Manny Acosta
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Mark Cohoon

2014 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Cory Vaughn
CF: Brandon Nimmo
RF: Cesar Puello

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Zack Wheeler

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Josh Edgin
SU: Jesse Leathersich
MR: Colin McHugh
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Darrin Gorski

Some Names To Learn:

Full Name: Thomas Andrew Pomeranz

Born: 11/22/1988

Birthplace: Memphis, TN

College: Mississippi

Height: 6' 5"

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: L

Scouting:

Pomeranz is a big, physical, strong, durable starter with a power three pitch mix of a fastball, curveball, and changeup. His fastball sits comfortably at 91-94 MPH and touches 95 MPH, and shows good swing and miss ability. His fastball is explosive through the zone and he is aggressive with it going right after hitters, especially on the hands of right-handers. Hitters often have a hard time tracking his fastball because it gets in on them quicker due to some good deception in his delivery, late life, and movement. He shows solid average command of his fastball and works it well to both sides of the plate.

Pomeranz’s plus-plus 12-6 knuckle curveball may be his best pitch as it has good, sharp downward bite and was considered one of the best secondary offerings in all of the 2010 Draft. It is another swing and miss type pitch in his arsenal, and he holds it with the same grip that left-hander Cliff Lee does. He rarely threw his changeup in college since he was mostly a fastball-curveball guy so it is a below average pitch for him at the moment, but he shows a good feel for it and it has the potential to at least be an average pitch if not more.

Pomeranz has a loose, low effort delivery and gets a good downward plane on his pitches. He gets a lot of swing and misses with his pitches, and uses his fastball to overpower hitters and mixes in his curveball well to keep them off balance. He is a workhorse, and his velocity and stuff holds up well late in games. He is a fierce competitor on the mound who is mature, controls his emotions well, and is very focused. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and is unwavered even in the tightest spots and does not let the game speed up on him when things are not going well. Because of his ability to keep cool and collected along with some great performances in big games in the past he has established a reputation as being a big game pitcher.

My Two Cents: A lefty with this kind of body, that kind of fastball and a KNUCKLE CURVE... is not something that comes along every day. Let us remember also that Pomeranz has also gotten his feet wet in the majors. Now... my bet is that Colorado will do EVERYTHING in their power to keep Drew off the table in a trade, but if I'm trading away my teams BEST player, I feel that I have the right to DEMAND the other team's BEST prospect.

Full Name: Nolan J. Arenado

Born: 04/16/1991

Birthplace: Newport Beach, CA

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Physique & Athleticism: Listed at 6’2″, 205 lbs., he looked a couple of inches shorter in uniform which might be explained by his thick lower half and high socks. That look can often leave a player looking shorter than he actually is. With a thick lower half, Arenado is all lower body. His upper half is not developed at this point, but his broad shoulders and muscular forearms leave plenty of room for projection. A below-average runner, he’s built for power, not speed. Arenado’s movements were smooth at the plate, but his footwork left plenty to be desired in the field. In fact, it was so awkward the first impression left was that of a prospect destined for first base or left field. However, he did his best to sway my initial observation as he made up for his lack of footwork with a number of difficult plays and accurate throws across the diamond.

Hitting: Make no mistake, Arenado’s bat is going to have to carry him to Colorado. His in-game power is below only a handful of players I have seen at the level. He consistently drove the baseball hard into the gaps throughout the series leading to multiple extra base hits and a couple of fly balls which reached the warning track. As he adds pull side power, his home run totals should really take off. The natural lift generated by Arenado’s swing is far beyond his years as the power tool is normally the last to develop. Arenado also has the bat speed to drive 90-91 MPH up in the zone. Unfortunately, the Sand Gnats staff is a soft-throwing group so seeing how any hitting prospect handles higher velocities is virtually impossible.

As for Arenado’s hitting mechanics, his pre-swing load could be quieter as he starts his hands just behind his ears and has to move them quite a bit to get into the hitting position. His legs start in a medium-wide stance and he features something close to a double-tap prior to his swing. Throughout the series, he consistently squared up on fastballs, but sometimes looked as if the extra movement in his swing threw off his timing some versus offspeed pitches. Never cheated, his approach was to hammer the first fastball over the plate and he was successful more often than not. Like Wilmer Flores, Arenado left me more impressed with his ability to make hard contact than his pitch-taking prowess. If you can detect a hint of sarcasm, it is because walk rates for teenagers at this level are relatively worthless for a player like Arenado who is going to have to mash his way to Colorado.

Defense: In game one of the series, Arenado took short, choppy steps to to get to balls and made an error on a routine grounder a step to his left. My initial reaction was to write him off as a third baseman, but he proceeded to play flawless defense showing the ability to react to hard hit balls, charge slow rollers, with an average, accurate throwing arm. Arenado has quite a bit of work to do to project as an average third baseman, but he has time, and makeup on his side.

Speed: Not much to discuss here in terms of stolen base ability, but he’s a smart, hard-working player who will do the little things well such as baserunning.

My Two Cents: I think if the question comes down to trading Wright, then the Mets NEED to acquire a prospect 3B in the deal. Arenado has a good amount of power and a GREAT eye at the plate. His major flaw vs. Wright is that he's not going to steal bases. He's in the AFL now which I take to put him slightly ahead of the AA curve.

Full Name: Wilin Rosario

Born: 02/23/1989

Birthplace: Bonao, Dominican Republic

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Jeff Reese (34): It may be foolhardy in the end, but I did not severely punish Wilin Rosario for tearing his ACL last August. I did move him down slightly in my rankings, but ultimately evaluated him on his talent alone. By all accounts, he is progressing well and could be back in time to participate in spring training. Others will be cautious, waiting to see Rosario make a full recovery first; I completely understand that point of view and see why they would choose to do so. Rosario's bat has the chance to be special if he can add a bit more patience to approach; he has plus power and the hand-eye coordination to hit for average. Rosario is a quality defensive catcher as well thanks to his plus-plus arm strength and good receiving skills. It's a pity that he got injured when he did as he was finally starting to gain widespread recognition as a premier prospect after the defensive display he put on at the Futures Game.

Al Skorupa (51): I don’t think it’s foolhardy at all. I really didn’t consider Rosario’s injury much in my ranking. BA had positive reports on his recovery a couple weeks back. [1] Personally, I have no real reservations that he won’t return to plus defense behind the plate. The thing that holds Rosario back for me is, as you mention, his patience. He’s walking a bit of a thin line in that category. If he regresses at all there he may be just a good defensive catcher who can hit some instead of a plus hitter and defender. He does strike out quite a bit. On the other hand, he’s only 21 years old. That’s another reason the ACL doesn’t bother me.

Michael Herrick (107): I'm very much the opposite of Al and Jeff here. While the preliminary reports on Rosario's knee sound good, until we see him catching full games 4-5 times a week, it's really hard to gauge if the ACL tear will have a long term effect on his defense. His defense is a major part of the attraction here, so I'll err on the side of caution. Al and Jeff both mention something else that worries me about Rosario, how much his patience (or lack thereof) could weigh down his offensive potential. There are just too many question marks for me to rank him in my top 100 at this point. A healthy showing in 2011 would move him up my list quickly.

My Two Cents: Rosario has power and that, in a catcher, is a nice bonus. Add that his glove etc... are ready for the majors and it's even nicer. I believe he could come to the Mets and immediately step ahead of Josh Thole on the depth chart.

Full Name: Alex Bruce White

Born: 08/29/1988

Birthplace: Greenville, NC

College: North Carolina

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

JD Sussman (73): During the majority his time at North Carolina, White was considered a consensus top pick for the 2009 draft. However, during his final college his stock plummeted due to concerns that his future was in the bullpen and a disappearing slider, likely costing him a few million dollars. While I was not one of them ranking him 91st last year, White has squelched his doubters thus far in his professional career. His repertoire has three above average offerings, two fastballs, a splitter, to go with the slider, which is still a work in progress. He doesn't miss bats at an elite rate (just 16.5% K/PA as a SP in 2010) but he has kept his walks manageable while inducing a lot of groundballs.

Al Skorupa (87): I'm just not a fan of White's sinker/splitter mix. Even if the slider continues to improve and becomes an average pitch, I question if he will consistently be able to throw it for strikes. White is solid, but strictly a middle of the rotation type for me. Between the two pitch power repertoire, shaky mechanics and inconsistency I can't help but think White fits better in the pen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a capable sinkerball starting pitcher, though.

Michael Herrick (72): I tend to agree with Al's assessment of White. I see a pretty sure fire MLB pitcher, but whether it's as an innings eating MOR starter or as a strong closer is the question. The dwindling K rate after his promotion to AA doesn't ease my concerns with him either. His profile reminds of former Indian Jake Westbrook. That's not a bad career to have, but probably not quite what many expect.

Jeff Reese (52): I don't consider myself crazy high on Alex White or anything, but I was easily the highest of the group. JD's evaluation is on point. While he doesn't miss a lot of bats, he does rack up the ground balls, making it easy to see him succeeding in the majors. He gives me a Derek Lowe type of vibe: slightly above-average, inning eating, ground ball inducing starting pitcher.

My Two Cents: Most of what I find on White refers to him as a secondary pitching prospect (leading me to believe he's a safe bet to be included in a deal). The big thing on White is that he was at one point "THE TOP PROSPECT" now he fits closer to a middle of the rotation projection.

Full Name: Chad Bettis

Born: 04/26/1989

Birthplace: Lubbock, TX

College: Texas Tech

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 193

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

A dominant closer at Texas Tech, righthander Chad Bettis is exactly the right kind of pitcher to survive at Coors. He mixes a heavy and loose fastball with an effective mid-80's slider that prevents hitters from making square contact. His brief time in the minors to date has been no challenge at all, as Bettis has easily delivered a shimmering 1.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 67 career innings of work. (He's struck out 56 and walked only 13.) He still has to get over the hurdle of AA, but at this rate, he'll be banging on the bullpen door in Colorado by 2012.

Some Of The Others:

1. Tim Wheeler
2. Juan Nicasio
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Kyle Parker
5. Christian Friedrich
6. Charlie Blackmon
7. Tyler Anderson

Met's Undergoing A Facelift

Every so often a brand or company needs to change things up because what they've become "Known" for isn't a positive. At this point it is better to DROP brand equity and RE-ESTABLISH a new and more POSITIVE image. Think of the big box pizza places:

Pizza Hut - Your favorites. Your Pizza Hut.

Papa John's - Better ingredients, better Pizza... Papa John's

Over a year ago Domino'ss decided to change things up. Domino's was and IS known for CHEAP pizza. You can eat your weight in bread, sauce and cheese for around $20. However nobody ever thought of Domino's as GOOD pizza. Last year they decided to change things up. They started to run commercials where they acknowledged their short-comings and promised to change things. What has followed is one of the most succesful ad campaigns in corporate history. Domino's has never been regarded more favorably by consumers and their sales numbers are way up from where they had been.

Why am I talking about pizza? It's a good question. So let's look at some big-market baseball teams:

New York Yankees - A Team of Legends

Philadelphia Phillies - The Greatest Rotation in History

What are the Mets know as? Lovable Losers? Plucky Underdogs? Choke Artists? Financial Fraud Criminals? The OTHER Team in New York? I'm betting that the Wilpons are looking to change the team and I don't think changes will be small. They started when the Wilpons signed a GM like Sandy Alderson. The Mets were not going to invest in bad contracts with over-achieving players. They were going to change things. Changing the very way we expect to see a New York team run.

Step 1: Clear House

The Mets have already expunged Omar Minaya and his cronies from the franchise. HOWEVER... it wasn't so much the front-office that needed to be cleared as the overall soul of that office's team.

I now believe (THIS IS THE GLASS HALF FULL GUY) that the Mets will be cutting ties with David Wright and quite possibly ALSO Jose Reyes. I think they'll try to trade Johan Santana and I think the Mets are gearing for a resurgent 2013 and a big run in 2014.

That doesn't make the Id of my inner sport's fan very happy, but it does appease my inner Super Igo. If I think logically, I think the Mets can build a winner in two years by cleaning house and starting from basically scratch. If they go other routes... spending money and trading prospects... I can no longer be sure that the Mets will ever break through the ceiling of the other teams in their division.

Step 2: Establish A NEW Brand

The Mets of the Omar Minaya era were headlined by Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Johan Santana, David Wright and Jose Reyes (Jason Bay?). This was not the Steve Phillips Mets where stars went elsewhere. This was the team who went out and GOT the marquee players.

There is a new generation of Mets on the horizon and I TRULY believe they will make up the future of the franchise. Therefore the Mets will be known for nurturing a crop of pitchers up from the minors and creating a pitching team to rival those jerks who wear red and white.

Step 3: Win The Fans

Convincing me that I can win in two years if I let my favorite players go is one thing. Convincing fans to not abandon ship when the franchise stops paying for top talent this next season is another. The Mets are on the verge of alienating a HUGE percentage of fans. It's going to be rougher for the Wilpons than you might think.

If the Mets don't spend in 2012... attendance will dwindle, viewership will drop and ad sales will take a nose dive. So... the Mets need to give the Met fans a message to help them through. I'm not sure what that will end up being but I expect the slogan surrounding the team to be updated in the near future.

STAY TUNED: Tomorrow I'm going to write a piece on some rumblings around the organization and what it could mean for 2012 and 2013.

Still Yet Another Approach

Since Carlos Beltran froze up against that fabled Wainwright curveball, Mike Francessa has been calling for the Mets to "Break Up The Core." Now... I'll note that he did it in an egotistical, I'm a Yankee fan and therefore the light shine out of my arse, way but he's been saying it for a while. Perhaps instead of trying to find a way to win NOW... we should be looking for a way to sell EVERYONE.

Step 1: Allow Jose Reyes to go. The Mets net two draft picks and move on from their all star short stop. This means that Ruben Tejada is moved across the diamond to short and that Jordany Valdespin is promoted to starting at 2nd.

Step 2: Trade David Wright. I went over the options in this previous post. The Mets can trade Wright for a bevy of prospects without worrying TOO much over WHERE they play because we're ready to move in a new YOUNGER direction.

Step 3: Ship off Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and anyone else that might be worth even a middling prospect. Shed the payroll and stock the farm with every available person. You are going to have to potentially eat some contract but isn't it going to be worth it?

Step 4: Sign mediocre guys looking for a rebound. Sign them to one-year deals and no more.

Conclusion: The Mets would be worthless in 2012, would begin to build in 2013 and might make a run in 2014. If they stumbled at all... Mike Francessa would again call for the team to be broken up.

2012

Lineup:
1. Jordany Valdespin, 2B (L)
2. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)
3. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
7. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R) [HE CAN'T BE TRADED]

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Josh Satin, IF (R)
Jason Pridie, OF (L)

Rotation:
1. Jon Niese, LHSP
2. Chris Young, RHSP
3. Dillon Gee, RHSP
4. Javier Vazquez, RHSP
5. Chris Schwinden, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Tim Brydak, LHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP

2013

Lineup:
1. Matt Den Dekker, CF (L)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
6. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
7. Stephen Drew, SS (L)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R)

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Jordany Valdespin, IF (R)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)

Rotation:
1. Matt Harvey, RHSP
2. Jon Niese, LHSP
3. Cole Hamels, LHSP
4. Jenrry Mejia, RHSP
5. Colin McHugh, RHSP

Bullpen:
Jeurys Familia, RHRP
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Robert Carson, LHRP