Mets Analysis – 2012 Full Season Relievers

Josh Edgin – It’s hard to think that someone could have a better year than Josh had in 2011. Savannah stats were: 24-G, 0.87, 0.77, 2.26-BABIP, 1.85-FIP. He followed this in St. Lucie with: 24-G, 1.57, 1.19, .307, 2.95. I expect him to start off in Binghamton, but this soon to be 25-year old could move quickly up the chain. Looks like a real find.

Brad Holt – First of all, this could be a moot point if the Mets don’t protect Holt in the Rule V… err, okay… FIVE Draft. I’m assuming here that they will. You’re not going to see great 2011 stats here. His relief ERA was 4.09, while he posted 5.04 as a starter. The good news was his K/BB ration as a reliever… 35-K/33.0-IP. My hope is thye protect him and let him try this again at the AA-level. There’s no rush for a reliever.

Nick Carr – Speaking of no rush for a reliever, all the Mets have to do is figure out a way to keep Carr healthy and they have a live one here. Carr has already been in the system for six years, but has only pitched in 120 games. A failed starter, he had outstanding numbers this year at three levels (30-appearances, 3-0, 2.27, 39.2-IP, 41-K, 20-BB). Carr still sits in the high 90s and will play 2012 as a 25-year old. Look for him to be in Binghamton.

Jeff Kaplan – Kaplan spent most of the season in St. Lucie (45-G, 3.45, 44-K, 24-BB, ,57-1-IP), but did appear in Binghamton as well (3-G). He had an incredible April in which he went 0.71, 1-ER, 12.2-IP, in 11 games. Things blew up in May (5.28) and June (9.39), but he finished up the season strong. All Kaplan has to do is be a ittle more consistent and cut down on the walks. Another Binghamton reliever in April.

Jack Leathersich – Leathersich signed late this year and only got into nine games for the Cyclones, but made one hell of an impression: 12.2-IP, 26-K, 0.71-ERA. Jack’s a college boy, so he should be ready for a full schedule team. I’m expecting to see him in Savannah this season.

Cutnpaste: Brad Holt, Chris Young, Tim Teufel, Harry Minor, Jason Isringhausen

9-17-11: - Brad Holt (Mets supplemental first-round pick in 2008): The right-hander from UNC-Wilmington rocketed through the minors for the first year of his pro career. But after reaching Binghamton in June 2009, his career has come to a dead stop. After back-to-back rough seasons in Double-A, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets take a chance and leave him unprotected. Read more: link  

Chris Young went to a little private college in New Jersey called Princeton. Maybe you’ve heard of it? He was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates (how unfortunate) in the 2000 amateur draft, but refused to sign his rookie contract until he got assurances from the club that he would be able to complete his studies. So he didn’t end up becoming a full-time pro ballplayers until after he graduated with a degree in politics in 2002. (They don’t call it “political science” at Princeton like they do everywhere else. They can get away with that because, well, they’re Princeton.) Today he’s a pretty respectable no. 4 or no. 5 starting pitcher. - http://www.totalprosports.com/2011/09/16/9-smartest-players-in-major-league-baseball

A Greenwich native, (Tim) Teufel spent four years working his way through the minor leagues in the early eighties and had so much fun he decided to do it all over again, this time as a manager. Teufel just completed his first year at the helm of the Buffalo Bisons, the Mets Triple-A affiliate after years working his way up the ranks, beginning in short-season A-ball with the Brooklyn Cyclones of the NY-Penn League with stops in St. Lucie, Savannah and in Double-A Binghamton for the 2010 season. Read more: http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Teufel-watches-his-players-move-up-to-majors-2175813.php#ixzz1YJOpPeJT 

It is all nearing an end for Harry Minor, a lifetime of baseball that began at Wilson High in the 1940s and coursed through a couple of decades in the minor leagues before a seamless odyssey with the New York Mets that has spanned almost a half century. He admits there is a sense of wistfulness hanging over him as the curtain is set to close on his ball diamond endeavors that have brought him near to so many storied figures of the game. "Yeah, it's almost over," he said, and there is a sadness in a voice that normally oozes with vibrancy. "What will I miss? Obviously, the ball games. I never get tired of watching baseball. - http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_18921592  

Mets manager Terry Collins said Jason Isringhausen (back) could be ready to pitch by the end of this week. Izzy has a slipped disk in his back and experienced leg numbness after receiving an epidural last week to help the back issue. He's likely to be used in a setup role when he returns, with Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta continuing to handle the ninth inning. - http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/mlb/baseball?r=1  

Cutnpaste: Brad Holt, Jason Bay, DePodesta on Moneyball, Wright on Losing, Pedro Feliciano

9-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/09/prospect-pulse-buffalo-2012-help-on-the-way.html  - - RP: Brad Holt - The enigmatic 6’4″ right-hander with the “perfect pitchers body” and the power fastball, has been a real head-scratcher so far. After breaking out of the box like a runaway train for Brooklyn, as a starter, making his professional debut in 2008, Holt ran into a brick wall the following season. For 9 games in 2009 he did fine for St Lucie, but then when called up to Bingo, all-hell-broke-loose. He suddenly couldn’t get anybody out. The remainder of ’09 he pitched to a record of 3-6 with a 6.21 ERA. In 2010, after starting out in AA going 1-5 with an alarming 10.20 ERA, he was demoted to St Lucie where he didn’t do much better, going 2-9, 7.48 ERA. 2011 hasn’t been eye-popping, but he is definitely making progress. His overall numbers this year are average, 8-7 with a 4.67 ERA, but most of the runs he gave up were in the first half when he was being utilized as a starter. Since being converted to a relief pitcher full-time, he has been quietly doing a superb job in one and two inning stints. In his last ten games out of the pen Holt is: 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA, and opponents are hitting .179 off him. The biggest improvement Holt has made is in his increased command, which has resulted in fewer walks, and that was crucial for him. If he can keep moving forward, and make the necessary adjustments to the higher caliber of play at AAA, he could emerge as a “relief ace” for Buffalo, a real lock down, 8th inning guy, which is exactly what the Mets see him as in the bigs. Will he be a help to the Mets at sometime in 2012 as a bullpen option? Why the heck not? He’s got the talent, hopefully his mechanics will fall into line.

(Jason) Bay's recent revival could be the worst thing that could happen to the Mets, because it might actually give the front office enough reason to talk itself into keeping Bay around for the life of the contract. Why is this a bad thing? Because as good as his past 140 plate appearances have been -- and let's be honest, they're still not that good -- we have another 700 PAs as a Met that suggest he is toast. Not to mention the fact much of the recent damage he is doing is against pitchers who were called up when rosters expanded on Sept. 1, and are of Triple-A caliber. Having lived through the Roberto Alomar experience, Mets fans are quite familiar with the idea that good players can suddenly lose it in their early 30s, which is what appears to have happened with Bay. And even if he somehow can manage an .800 OPS in 2012, the Mets are still better off without him. - http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story?id=6968872&_slug_=new-york-mets-release-jason-bay&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fstory%3fid%3d6968872%26_slug_%3dnew-york-mets-release-jason-bay  

“I figured this might get asked at some point [laughing]. I imagine I’ll see it at some point. To be honest, it’s a little surreal and a little awkward. As you noted, Jonah’s not actually playing me, he’s playing a fictionalized character. It’s loosely based on the idea of me, or the idea of a dozen different younger executives with particular backgrounds. Hopefully it’ll be fun and an enjoyable movie. The last time I spoke with Jonah, right before they started filming, the last thing I said to Jonah was to have a lot of fun. We had an awful lot of fun when we were in Oakland. Hopefully that comes through in the movie and nobody takes it too seriously.” - http://www.ontheblack.com/2011/09/15/paul-depodesta-thoughts-on-moneyball

"It's obviously disappointing," David Wright said. "It's another year we're not going to the playoffs. You would've thought with the resources we have and the players we've had that we would've had the opportunity to go to the playoffs more than once (in 2006) and that hasn't happened. But there's only one thing to do and that's play better. We have to try to finish strong and next year figure out a way to get it done. - http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2011/09/14/2011-09-14_new_york_mets_officially_eliminated_from_playoff_contention_then_fall_to_washing.html#ixzz1Y1fiWEUd  

Pedro Feliciano may not throw a single pitch for the New York Yankees, yet still be paid $8 million over his two-year stay with the franchise. In 2010, Pedro Feliciano became just the fifth pitcher in major league history to make 90 or more appearances in a season. The left-handed reliever, who signed a two-year contract with the Yankees over the winter, missed the entire 2011 season trying to recover from a shoulder injury. On Sept. 8, he had left rotator cuff surgery which will threaten his 2012 season, if not his career. - http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/09/new-york-yankees-reliever-pedro-feliciano-surgery-career/1  

State of the System: New York Mets

Quick Look

The 2009 season was an utter disaster for the Mets, as a hobbling roster forced them to christen Citi Field with a profusion of journeymen and end the year with a better record than only 5 teams in the game. If MLB stars like Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, etc. are healthy next year, the Mets will have a much better chance of competing. Their farm system won't be of much assistance, however. After a few respectable prospects, New York's system is devoid of talent.

Top Prospects

Fernando Martinez, of

Age: 21 Level: MLB

Martinez' budding power and potential to hit for a solid average have long made him a touted prospect. Though he just turned 21, Martinez would have already established himself in the majors had it not been for continued injury problems (knee, hand, hamstring, etc.). The 6-1 native of the Dominican Republic signed for $1.3 million in 2005 and played a season in Double-A at age 18. His BB-K track record is mediocre, but he has the quick stroke and power potential to still be an above-average offensive producer. Martinez has slowed down and moved off center field. His throwing needs work, but he could be a pretty good defender on a corner, although he needs to produce big-time to be of use there. After logging 100 plate appearances in the majors this season, Martinez will compete for a job in Spring Training. He is advanced for his age, but has yet to show the durability necessary for a grueling full season.

Ike Davis, 1B

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Davis, the 18th overall pick in 2008, had an inauspicious debut, going homerless and posting a .652 OPS in the New York-Penn League. The former Arizona State star put to rest doubts about his power in 2009, though, blasting 20 homers while reaching Double-A. Davis, a 6-5 lefty, has at least plus power in the tank. He has the bat speed and lift in his swing to potentially hit 30 homers, and he draws a healthy amount of walks. Davis, who played right field and pitched at ASU, is also a plus defender and has some athleticism. Many question how his approach will fare at the highest level, though, as Davis strikes out in bunches and can get pull-happy. Samesiders give him fits. There have been some rumblings that the Mets might give Davis the big league first base job in 2010, but he'll more likely return to the minors to work on his hittability. If he can cure his K and LHP woes, he'll be an above-average regular.

Jenrry Mejia, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Mejia signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 with little fanfare. Reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old and flashing dominating stuff has helped him go from a virtual unknown to one of the better pitching prospects in the game. Baseball America ranked Mejia as New York's #1 prospect. His fastball has incredible movement in the low- to mid-90s, and Mejia can dial it up to 98 mph on occasion. His next-best offering is a mid-80s changeup, more notable for its splitter-like drop than a large separation in velocity. Mejia also has a hard curveball, but it's wildly inconsistent. The compact 6-footer does not have a prototypical pitcher's frame, but he is muscular and makes it work. He induces bushels of groundballs. Mejia's biggest pitfalls are a lack of consistency with his offspeed pitches and poor command. His walk rate this year was 9.5%, and his command within the zone is even more erratic. Some suggest he's destined for the bullpen, but Mejia has the raw ingredients to pitch at the front of the rotation. He will split the upcoming campaign between the top two rungs of the minors, with an eye on improving his pitchability. He has ample time for refinement, and will reach the majors in 2011, if not earlier.

Jon Niese, lhp

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Niese was establishing himself in New York's rotation when he severely injured his hamstring in August. He'll be ready in 2010, and should spend his first full year in the majors. Niese's fastball creeps into the low-90s and his big-breaking curveball is his trademark pitch. He also has a solid changeup. Niese's command still needs fine-tuning, and his delivery isn't ideal. He projects as a quality back-of-the-rotation southpaw long-term.

Reese Havens, 2B

Age: 23 Level: High A-Double-A

Havens, a shortstop at South Carolina, shifted to second this year. The 6-1, 195-pounder lacked the range to play short, and he projects as more of a slugging, offensive-oriented keystone sacker than a typical pesky, scrappy type. The lefty-swinger has plus pop, especially for a middle infielder, and should be good for doubles and home runs. He has advanced pitch recognition and exhibits control of the strike zone. His pro BB rate is 12.5%, although he also strikes out a fair amount (and has batted just .247 in his two pro seasons). Havens may not have the quick footwork to play second, but his hands and arm are assets. He has shown injury-prone tendencies in his brief pro career, and needs to shake the injury bug. He also has underachieved at times. Havens is flawed, but his offensive potential and feel for the game give him a solid shot to be an everyday regular.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of

Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A

Nieuwenhuis, an Azusa Pacific (NAIA) product, was a recherché 3rd-round pick in 2008. He has gotten off to a nice professional start, and ranked as the #13 prospect in the Florida State League. The 6-3, 210-pounder has some pop from the left side. He socked 61 extra-base hits this season to go with his .282/.364/.479 line, and he also runs well. Nieuwenhuis currently plays center, but his strong arm makes him a better fit for right in the long run. He plays with an all-out mentality. For all his solid tools, though, Nieuwenhuis swings and misses too often (21.8 pro K%), and needs to cut down his swing to hit at higher levels. His tools aren't overwhelming enough to simply glide to the MLB without making progress with his contact skills. Nieuwenhuis shined in a Double-A cameo at the end of 2009, and it will be fascinating to watch him log a full season at that level this season. He is a sleeper who just popped onto the radar, but I'm cautiously optimistic he can develop into an starting outfielder in the big leagues.

Wilmer Flores, inf

Age: 18 Level: Low A-High A

Flores backers point to his age. The native of Venezuela, who signed for $750,000, held his own (kind of) as a 17-year-old in full-season ball. The 6-3, 175-pounder consistently puts the barrel to the ball and projects for power. He has a strong arm and his hands are fine. On the other hand, however, Flores is a well below-average runner and will not stay at shortstop. He is exceptionally impatient (4.2 BB%) and is unlikely to wind up with high OBPs. He hit just 3 homers this year, though he is young and should get stronger. Flores is 3 or more years from the majors, if he makes it. His contact ability and youth are positives, but I find it hard to get excited about a teenager who is bound to switch positions and rarely gets on via the free pass.

Ruben Tejada, ss/2B

Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Tejada is a classic example of New York's hyper-aggressive promotion philosophy for young prospects: The Panamanian middle infielder played in Double-A as a 19-year-old this year after struggling to a .229/.293/.296 clip in High A in 2008. Tejada finally caught his breath, though, showing excellent maturity and a potential MLB future. The 5-11, 165-pounder has strong contact skills (.289 AVG and 10.7 K% this season), though he needs to show more patience (although a 7.0% full-season walk rate isn't atrocious). Tejada's power is to the gaps at best, and he won't be a true offensive threat at any rate. He does have arm strength and plus potential in the field. He runs well and is a solid basestealer. Tejada, well ahead of the curve but still looking to add polish, will move to Triple-A in 2010.

Josh Thole, c

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Thole's contact ability is brilliant: The 2005 draftee hit over .320 this year and has accumulated less strikeouts than walks at each of his stops in full-season ball. The drawback is that Thole employs a choke-up, pretend-like-there-are-two-strikes, protect-the-plate, dump-a-single-in approach to achieve his results. He seldom drives the ball (multiple homers in only 1 of 5 pro seasons) and his ultimate value is all tied up in his batting average. The 6-1, 205-pounder is a fringy defensive catcher, though he's made steady improvement. He performed well in a late-season call-up this year and should get more MLB playing time in 2010, but it's hard to see him being more than a backup. There's nothing wrong with a lefty bat with great contact skills off the bench, though, and Thole should be that at the very least.

Brad Holt, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Holt is primarily a one-pitch pitcher. The 6-4 righty works off a low-90s fastball, and has touched 96 mph. He commands the pitch and it has outstanding life. Holt's secondary stuff is a different matter. The UNC Wilmington product has an inconsistent breaking ball which he struggles to control. His changeup is underdeveloped and ineffective, and his release point varies on all his pitches. Holt breezed through the lower levels of the minors before hitting a wall in Double-A (6.21 ERA and diminished K rate). His projectable, durable frame and dynamite fastball should guarantee him a big league role in some capacity, but I'm very skeptical that Holt will ever improve his secondary pitches to the point where he is a difference-maker.

Others: LHPs Juan Urbina and Steve Matz; RHPs Kyle Allen, Tobi Stoner, and Josh Stinson; OF Cesar Puello

Impact Talent: C

Farm System Depth: D+

2010 Breakout Prospect

Zach Dotson, lhp

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

The Mets notoriously skimped on the draft this year, but Dotson was one draftee for whom they went over slot to secure. The Georgia prep product signed out of the 13th round for $500,000. Dotson has a nice 3-pitch mix, beginning with a fastball that sits 87-88 and tops out at 91 mph. His curveball and changeup also flash solid potential. I'm not a big fan of Dotson's delivery, but he's still a good pick to start his career off well and perhaps jump into the Mets' Top 10 next year. He will likely pitch in the South Atlantic League in 2010.