The 2009 season was an utter disaster for the Mets, as a hobbling roster forced them to christen Citi Field with a profusion of journeymen and end the year with a better record than only 5 teams in the game. If MLB stars like Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, etc. are healthy next year, the Mets will have a much better chance of competing. Their farm system won't be of much assistance, however. After a few respectable prospects, New York's system is devoid of talent.
Top Prospects
Age: 21 Level: MLB
Martinez' budding power and potential to hit for a solid average have long made him a touted prospect. Though he just turned 21, Martinez would have already established himself in the majors had it not been for continued injury problems (knee, hand, hamstring, etc.). The 6-1 native of the Dominican Republic signed for $1.3 million in 2005 and played a season in Double-A at age 18. His BB-K track record is mediocre, but he has the quick stroke and power potential to still be an above-average offensive producer. Martinez has slowed down and moved off center field. His throwing needs work, but he could be a pretty good defender on a corner, although he needs to produce big-time to be of use there. After logging 100 plate appearances in the majors this season, Martinez will compete for a job in Spring Training. He is advanced for his age, but has yet to show the durability necessary for a grueling full season.
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Davis, the 18th overall pick in 2008, had an inauspicious debut, going homerless and posting a .652 OPS in the New York-Penn League. The former Arizona State star put to rest doubts about his power in 2009, though, blasting 20 homers while reaching Double-A. Davis, a 6-5 lefty, has at least plus power in the tank. He has the bat speed and lift in his swing to potentially hit 30 homers, and he draws a healthy amount of walks. Davis, who played right field and pitched at ASU, is also a plus defender and has some athleticism. Many question how his approach will fare at the highest level, though, as Davis strikes out in bunches and can get pull-happy. Samesiders give him fits. There have been some rumblings that the Mets might give Davis the big league first base job in 2010, but he'll more likely return to the minors to work on his hittability. If he can cure his K and LHP woes, he'll be an above-average regular.
Jenrry Mejia, rhp
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Mejia signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 with little fanfare. Reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old and flashing dominating stuff has helped him go from a virtual unknown to one of the better pitching prospects in the game. Baseball America ranked Mejia as New York's #1 prospect. His fastball has incredible movement in the low- to mid-90s, and Mejia can dial it up to 98 mph on occasion. His next-best offering is a mid-80s changeup, more notable for its splitter-like drop than a large separation in velocity. Mejia also has a hard curveball, but it's wildly inconsistent. The compact 6-footer does not have a prototypical pitcher's frame, but he is muscular and makes it work. He induces bushels of groundballs. Mejia's biggest pitfalls are a lack of consistency with his offspeed pitches and poor command. His walk rate this year was 9.5%, and his command within the zone is even more erratic. Some suggest he's destined for the bullpen, but Mejia has the raw ingredients to pitch at the front of the rotation. He will split the upcoming campaign between the top two rungs of the minors, with an eye on improving his pitchability. He has ample time for refinement, and will reach the majors in 2011, if not earlier.
Jon Niese, lhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Niese was establishing himself in New York's rotation when he severely injured his hamstring in August. He'll be ready in 2010, and should spend his first full year in the majors. Niese's fastball creeps into the low-90s and his big-breaking curveball is his trademark pitch. He also has a solid changeup. Niese's command still needs fine-tuning, and his delivery isn't ideal. He projects as a quality back-of-the-rotation southpaw long-term.
Reese Havens, 2B
Age: 23 Level: High A-Double-A
Havens, a shortstop at South Carolina, shifted to second this year. The 6-1, 195-pounder lacked the range to play short, and he projects as more of a slugging, offensive-oriented keystone sacker than a typical pesky, scrappy type. The lefty-swinger has plus pop, especially for a middle infielder, and should be good for doubles and home runs. He has advanced pitch recognition and exhibits control of the strike zone. His pro BB rate is 12.5%, although he also strikes out a fair amount (and has batted just .247 in his two pro seasons). Havens may not have the quick footwork to play second, but his hands and arm are assets. He has shown injury-prone tendencies in his brief pro career, and needs to shake the injury bug. He also has underachieved at times. Havens is flawed, but his offensive potential and feel for the game give him a solid shot to be an everyday regular.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
Nieuwenhuis, an Azusa Pacific (NAIA) product, was a recherché 3rd-round pick in 2008. He has gotten off to a nice professional start, and ranked as the #13 prospect in the Florida State League. The 6-3, 210-pounder has some pop from the left side. He socked 61 extra-base hits this season to go with his .282/.364/.479 line, and he also runs well. Nieuwenhuis currently plays center, but his strong arm makes him a better fit for right in the long run. He plays with an all-out mentality. For all his solid tools, though, Nieuwenhuis swings and misses too often (21.8 pro K%), and needs to cut down his swing to hit at higher levels. His tools aren't overwhelming enough to simply glide to the MLB without making progress with his contact skills. Nieuwenhuis shined in a Double-A cameo at the end of 2009, and it will be fascinating to watch him log a full season at that level this season. He is a sleeper who just popped onto the radar, but I'm cautiously optimistic he can develop into an starting outfielder in the big leagues.
Wilmer Flores, inf
Age: 18 Level: Low A-High A
Flores backers point to his age. The native of Venezuela, who signed for $750,000, held his own (kind of) as a 17-year-old in full-season ball. The 6-3, 175-pounder consistently puts the barrel to the ball and projects for power. He has a strong arm and his hands are fine. On the other hand, however, Flores is a well below-average runner and will not stay at shortstop. He is exceptionally impatient (4.2 BB%) and is unlikely to wind up with high OBPs. He hit just 3 homers this year, though he is young and should get stronger. Flores is 3 or more years from the majors, if he makes it. His contact ability and youth are positives, but I find it hard to get excited about a teenager who is bound to switch positions and rarely gets on via the free pass.
Ruben Tejada, ss/2B
Age: 20 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Tejada is a classic example of New York's hyper-aggressive promotion philosophy for young prospects: The Panamanian middle infielder played in Double-A as a 19-year-old this year after struggling to a .229/.293/.296 clip in High A in 2008. Tejada finally caught his breath, though, showing excellent maturity and a potential MLB future. The 5-11, 165-pounder has strong contact skills (.289 AVG and 10.7 K% this season), though he needs to show more patience (although a 7.0% full-season walk rate isn't atrocious). Tejada's power is to the gaps at best, and he won't be a true offensive threat at any rate. He does have arm strength and plus potential in the field. He runs well and is a solid basestealer. Tejada, well ahead of the curve but still looking to add polish, will move to Triple-A in 2010.
Josh Thole, c
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Thole's contact ability is brilliant: The 2005 draftee hit over .320 this year and has accumulated less strikeouts than walks at each of his stops in full-season ball. The drawback is that Thole employs a choke-up, pretend-like-there-are-two-strikes, protect-the-plate, dump-a-single-in approach to achieve his results. He seldom drives the ball (multiple homers in only 1 of 5 pro seasons) and his ultimate value is all tied up in his batting average. The 6-1, 205-pounder is a fringy defensive catcher, though he's made steady improvement. He performed well in a late-season call-up this year and should get more MLB playing time in 2010, but it's hard to see him being more than a backup. There's nothing wrong with a lefty bat with great contact skills off the bench, though, and Thole should be that at the very least.
Brad Holt, rhp
Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
Holt is primarily a one-pitch pitcher. The 6-4 righty works off a low-90s fastball, and has touched 96 mph. He commands the pitch and it has outstanding life. Holt's secondary stuff is a different matter. The UNC Wilmington product has an inconsistent breaking ball which he struggles to control. His changeup is underdeveloped and ineffective, and his release point varies on all his pitches. Holt breezed through the lower levels of the minors before hitting a wall in Double-A (6.21 ERA and diminished K rate). His projectable, durable frame and dynamite fastball should guarantee him a big league role in some capacity, but I'm very skeptical that Holt will ever improve his secondary pitches to the point where he is a difference-maker.
Others: LHPs Juan Urbina and Steve Matz; RHPs Kyle Allen, Tobi Stoner, and Josh Stinson; OF Cesar Puello
Impact Talent: C
Farm System Depth: D+
2010 Breakout Prospect
Zach Dotson, lhp
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
The Mets notoriously skimped on the draft this year, but Dotson was one draftee for whom they went over slot to secure. The Georgia prep product signed out of the 13th round for $500,000. Dotson has a nice 3-pitch mix, beginning with a fastball that sits 87-88 and tops out at 91 mph. His curveball and changeup also flash solid potential. I'm not a big fan of Dotson's delivery, but he's still a good pick to start his career off well and perhaps jump into the Mets' Top 10 next year. He will likely pitch in the South Atlantic League in 2010.
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