Monday, December 28, 2009

State of the System: Pittsburgh Pirates

Quick Look
You don't need me to tell you that the Pirates are a dismal franchise. The Bucs, after all, set the North American professional sports record for consecutive losing seasons this year with 17. There are, however, some signs of rebounding within the system. GM Neal Huntington and his crew seem to value rebuilding with prospects and they spent big bucks to acquire many of the players on this list. The NL Central is a wide-open division, but it still might be a couple more years until Pittsburgh gets over the hump.

Top Prospects
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB
Alvarez went 2nd overall in the 2008 draft after a stellar career at Vanderbilt. He got his pro career started this year after signing late and getting caught up in a grievance. Alvarez has plus-plus power that ranks among the best in the minors. He socked 27 HRs in 465 at-bats and compiled a .247 IsoP this season. He is streaky, but jacks absolute moonshots when he's on. He also takes walks and works to improve his contact skills and play a solid third base. The 6-3, 235-pounder has been knocked for not staying on top of his conditioning, though, and his move to 1st base is probably a matter of "when", not "if". He can probably stick for a few more years, as his hands and arm are solid. Alvarez fans way too much (23.8 K%), and has a particularly difficult time against hooks and samesiders (1.028 OPS against RHPs, .714 against LHPs). He'll be one of the best players in the game if he plays an adequate 3rd base and hits for respectable contact, but either way I think Alvarez will produce for 30-40 homers. He'll be up in Pittsburgh by mid-2010.

Tony Sanchez, c
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
A standout at Boston College, Sanchez led the Eagles to a regional appearance and got drafted 4th overall this year. Though that pick was somewhat of a cost-saving measure, Pittsburgh is legitimately excited about the Miami native's future. Sanchez offers plus defense behind the plate. He moves well, blocks balls, and has a solid arm. Offensively, he's less of a sure thing. The 6-0, 220-pounder has some power, but he sometimes struggles breaking balls and needs more at-bats. He showed improvement during an encouraging pro debut (.309/.409/.539 across 3 levels). Sanchez has outstanding makeup and works hard. If his bat plays, he'll be a valuable backstop.

Jose Tabata, of
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A-MLB
The 5-11, 215-pound Tabata came over from the Yankees in the 2008 Xavier Nady trade. He has displayed an innate feel for hitting his entire career, with a short swing geared for line drives. His stocky frame belies his above-average speed, and his strong arm makes him a good defender. Tabata's power has never developed, however, making it imperative that he stays in center. The native of Venezuela has never hit double-digit home runs or posted an .800 OPS. His highest single-season IsoP mark is .122. Tabata has a thick lower half and will probably move to a corner if he slows down any. Some have concerns with his makeup. Having already played over a month in Triple-A, Tabata will probably reach the majors in 2010. Many would take Tabata over Sanchez, but the advantage the former has with his pure hitting will be mitigated by Sanchez' positional value, superior makeup, and perhaps power production.

Brad Lincoln, rhp
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB
A touted draft prospect out of Houston who went 4th overall in 2006, Lincoln held up the Pirates' tradition and succumbed to an arm injury. He recovered fine from Tommy John surgery and is now on the brink of the majors as he nears age 25. Lincoln is a short, stocky competitor with a pair of plus pitches with which he aggressively goes after batters. His fastball sits at 90-93 mph and touches 95, while his curveball has hard, late bite. He pounds the zone (5.0 BB% in 2009) but needs to sharpen his command within the zone, as he is prone to homers. His changeup will also require some finishing touches. A potential #3 starter or better, Lincoln should finally reach Pittsburgh in 2010.

Chase d'Arnaud, ss/2B
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
A plus defensive 3rd baseman at Pepperdine, d'Arnaud is now a well-rounded middle infielder. The 6-1, 175-pounder had a consistent season this year, ending up at .293/.398/.454 with 33 doubles and 31 stolen bases. d'Arnaud is a disciplined, controlled hitter (11.8 BB%) who uses the whole field and has good at-bats. He runs a tick above average. d'Arnaud has soft hands and a good arm up the middle. With below-average power and no knockout tools, though, he lacks premium upside. Some deem his range substandard and think he'll shift to 2nd base in the long term. Similar to Dodgers prospect Ivan De Jesus, I see d'Arnaud ultimately as a steady #2 hitter who won't reach stardom but will help a team win.

Tim Alderson, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Double-A-MLB
Alderson was a 2007 1st-rounder of the Giants whom the Pirates acquired for Freddy Sanchez in July. His stock slipped in 2009 as his velocity did the same, but I'm still high on Alderson, a 6-6 Arizonan. Alderson sat in the high-80s this year but he has touched 93 mph and has the lanky, projectable frame to add more strength and velocity. He has a herky-jerky delivery (which has effort and deception) and a wipeout 11-5 curveball that gets swings and misses. Alderson doesn't use his changeup often, but it has developed into a decent pitch. His most attractive skill is his advanced command. Alderson endured a year in which he regressed in almost all phases, but he's young for his league and I'm betting he will turn it around and become at least a mid-rotation starter.

Zach Von Rosenberg, rhp
Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
Von Rosenberg was a Louisiana prep star whom the Pirates swayed from LSU with an above-slot $1.2 million signing bonus this year. I am bullish on him as well, having taken him in my shadow draft. Von Rosenberg works in the 88-91 mph range with his fastball, and he has good control of the pitch. His secondary pitches, a curveball and changeup, are arguably even better. His feel for pitching is advanced. The 6-5, 205-pounder also has an ideal pitcher's frame. Von Rosenberg's present velocity isn't overpowering, but there are no glaring weaknesses in his game. A future #3 starter, he will likely get his first taste of pro ball in the South Atlantic League.

Starling Marte, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
Marte signed in 2007 out of the Dominican Republic. He burst onto the prospect radar in his stateside debut this year, hitting .312/.377/.439 with 24 steals in 54 games in Low A. Marte, though raw, has ample all-around tools. His plus-plus speed and above-average arm give him potential on the basepaths and in the outfield. Marte has line-drive ability, but needs to get stronger and improve his plate discipline. He hit just 3 homers and compiled an unsightly 12-55 BB-K ratio this season. Marte will head to High A in 2010 to try to polish his exciting, but inconsistent, toolset.

Victor Black, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A
Black was a supplemental-rounder out of Dallas Baptist this year, signing for $717,000. His arm strength and recent progress with his command and delivery could carry him a long way. Black's fastball sits in the low-90s and touches 96 mph. His 82-84 mph slider has sharp tilt but needs more consistency. Black's changeup is in its nascent stages. He could scrap it if he moves to the bullpen, though many would like to see his durable frame in the rotation. Black's pro debut displayed his electric stuff as well his mechanics issues and wildness. He needs more work, but Black's upside make him one to watch.

Brooks Pounders, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A
Pounders' big 6-4, 225 frame looks intimidating on the mound, but he lacks top-end velocity and instead relies on advanced secondary stuff. The California native has a high-80s fastball that peaks at 91 mph. His curveball, slider, and changeup all flash the potential to be plus offerings. Pounders uncharacteristically walked a lot of batters in his pro debut, but for a high school product he is lauded for his pitch placement. His lack of projectability and big-time velo mean Pounders will never be a fireballer or an ace, but his 4-pitch mix and pitchability could make him a #4 starter in the major leagues.

Colton Cain, lhp
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
One of Pittsburgh's several over-slot expenditures in the 2009 draft, Cain was an 8th-rounder who received a $1.125 million signing bonus. Strong and muscular at 6-3, 225, Cain throws a fastball with heavy sink. He ratchets the pitch up to 94 mph, though its velocity fluctuates. He's competitive on the mound. Cain's seondary pitches lag behind, but he has decent feel for a breaking ball and changeup. Some scouts are put off by his arm action and below-average command. Cain could play at Short-Season or Low A this year, and is several years away from the majors.

Others: RHP Brett Lorin; LHP Rudy Owens; OF Gorkys Hernandez and Robbie Grossman; IF Jarek Cunningham
Impact Talent: C
Farm System Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect
Exicardo Cayonez, of
Age: 18 Level: Rookie-Low A
Cayonez was a high-profile Venezuelan amateur who signed for $400,000 in 2008. The lefty has a feel for hitting, regularly stroking line drives and exhibiting patience at the plate. Cayonez hit an encouraging .302/.396/.424 with a 23-30 BB-K ratio over 242 plate appearances in the VSL this year. The 6-0, 180-pounder does not have huge power, though. With his strong showing in his pro debut, Cayonez will likely advance stateside in 2010.

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