Johnny Bench is arguably the best catcher to play the game of baseball. During a 16-year career, Bench set a standard that will probably never be eclipsed. He was National League Rookie of the Year in 1968, the league’s Most Valuable Player in 1970 and 1972, and a World Series MVP in 1976. Bench also won 10 Gold Gloves as an anchor of a Cincinnati Reds team that won back-to-back World Series titles in 1975-76. The leader of The Big Red Machine, he was named to baseball’s All-Century Team in 1999. http://www2.hickoryrecord.com/sports/2011/oct/26/63-johnny-bench-still-not-bench-ar-1538937
I for one always assumed that, on average, players with higher on-base percentages (OBP) would see significantly more pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). It seemed intuitive that higher OBP was the result of walking more and that resulted from greater patience at the plate. My assumption was that variation in OBP should be explained to a large degree by P/PA. A few weeks ago I learned that isn't the case. Generally speaking, only a small percentage of the variation in OBP can be explained by P/PA. To confirm for myself, I looked at all qualified batters between 2002-2009. Sure enough, the correlation between the two metrics was .426 with an r2 of .18. Now, that's roughly 20%, but much lower than I assumed. So much for assumptions. To dig in deeper I ran some correlations between P/PA for a number of other metrics, just to get a better sense of what outcomes are driven by or related to working pitchers. Here are the results: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/10/26/2513194/are-patient-hitters-better-hitters#storyjump
Mike Napoli was drafted by the Anaheim Angels in the 17th round in 2000, from high school in Cooper City, Florida (population 27,939 in the 2000 census, median family income $78,172, part of the South Florida Metro). He was assigned to Butte in the Pioneer League after signing, but was limited to just 10 games by a back injury, hitting .231/.400/.308 in those contests. He got off to a late start again in 2001 and played 50 games in A-ball, 43 for Low-A Cedar Rapids (.232/.341/.406) and seven for High-A Rancho Cucamonga (.200/.429/.350). He wasn't really on the radar as a prospect at this point, except among the most fanatic Angels fans. http://www.minorleagueball.com
When projecting Profar in his prime, I can’t help but see him as a better version of White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez. With Ramirez producing back-to-back 4+ WAR seasons, the sky is really the limit for Jurickson Profar considering his on base skills should be significantly improved over Ramirez. Additionally, Ramirez’ power numbers look more impressive on paper than in reality as his huge plate appearance totals add counting numbers. Profar should produce higher wOBA totals prior to his prime years with room for more. This leaves Profar a 5-6 WAR player for me leaving him a top-4 shortstop in all of baseball. For me, the conservative approach would be to label Jurickson Profar an above average regular with multiple all-star seasons. A more aggressive assessment would leave the Rangers shortstop a franchise player worthy of building an organization around. If not for Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar would rank as the best prospect I scouted this season. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jurickson-profar-the-next-rangers-star
Epstein has earned enough accolades that I needn’t recount his qualifications here; hell, we already wrote a book about them. Suffice it to say that Theo is a top-tier talent both in his ability to evaluate and acquire talent and in his skill at instituting a self-sustaining program of player development; he’s also among the best at dealing with the media, and he’ll be sure to move quickly to get the late-adopting Cubs an equivalent to Carmen, the information management system whose development he oversaw in Boston. What’s more, if Werth was valued by Washington for his potential as a tool for recruiting player talent, then Epstein has the same significance to Chicago. His recruiting powers are paying even more immediate dividends, as Padres GM Jed Hoyer and AGM Jared McLeod will be getting the gang back together under Epstein in Chicago, with Hoyer serving as GM. The round-the-clock business of running a baseball operations department has become too demanding for any one man, so one of the most important measures of a modern GM is the quality of the co-workers with whom he chooses to work. As Epstein plays Mark Shapiro to Hoyer’s Chris Antonetti, the two will continue to add to an assortment of experienced and innovative assistants, giving the Cubs a braintrust that one day might make Epstein himself dispensable. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15366
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