Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Giants Minor League Review: Pitching

A couple weeks back, we started out 2010 Minor League Review by taking a look at some of the top hitters in the system from 2010. Now, since the Giants have quieted down over the last week, and with not much new to talk about on regarding possible free agent or trade targets, I figured I'd use today's post to finish off our 2010 Minor League pitching review.

Contrary to years past, the Giants actually have more promising young hitters in their system right now than they do pitchers. Their top prospect heading into 2011 will be first basemen Brandon Belt, who should be one of BA's top-20 as well. However, after Belt, there is a huge fall-off in terms of Major League ready prospects, both on the pitching front and the positional front. There are some young hitters who have upside like Thomas Neal, Francisco Peguero and Brandon Crawford, and you can read the report on them here, but as far as young arms, they no longer have that Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum or Madison Bumgarner waiting in the wings like they've had in years past. Their top pick from 2009's draft, Zach Wheeler, did OK in his first full year as a pro in 2010, but was far from spectacular, and made nowhere near the splash Bumgarner and Lincecum did when they first arrived. In 21 games (13 starts), Wheeler sported a 3-3 record with a 3.99 era. He threw 58.4 innings and allowed 47 hits while walking 38, good for a WHIP of 1.45. Granted, Wheeler wasn't 100% healthy, but in comparison to Bumgarner's first professional year at Augusta (15-3, 1.46 era, 164 K's in 141 IP in '08), Wheeler isn't even close. I was a little skeptical of the pick when they made it, I wanted either Alex White or Tyler Matzek, who have both started out very well with their respective clubs (as well as RHP Mike Leake, who's already a staple in the Red's rotation). That said, I still have high hopes for Wheeler, and I'm very confident that he'll have a big 2011 to put himself right back on radar. No matter what, I don't really see him making an appearance in SF until at least 2012.

Other than Wheeler, the Giants don't have any real national-known pitching talent know that Bumgarner has arrived in SF. I'd say the second best pitching prospect behind Wheeler at this point would be 23 year-old lefty Eric Surkamp (6th rounder from '08) who had a decent. Surkamp followed up a nice 2009 season with a solid start to 2010 in San Jose (4-2, 3.11 ERA, 108 k's in 101 IP) before going down with injury. Another young kid who made a nice impression in 2010 was 20 year-old rightie Jorge Bucardo. The kid dominated Low-A Augusta (9-4, 2.21 era, 95:33 K/BB ratio) before moving up to San Jose where he didn't fair quite as well, but still showed good signs. Othen than those guys, David Mixon shined in 2010 but it's tough to consider him a top-prospect cause of his age. Hacker, however, is the one guy right now who would probably be next in line for the Giants if one of their 5 starters were to go down, and that's the reason Sabean is searching for possible 6th starter candidates.

Big League Notes: The Vegas MLB Spread is already starting to compile, and for once, finally, the Giants have gotten some national attention. If you were to bet today, Vegas has the Giants as the 4th most likely club to win the World Series behind Boston, New York and Philadelphia. Not that this makes a difference in their actual chances whatsoever, just pointing out how an actual West Coast team is considered a legit possible 'Series contender. I guess that's what dominating the previous postseason will do for you.

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