Tuesday, June 15, 2010

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

It has been a woefully long time since I last posted, but I have caught my breath and am back to provide sweet baseball content all summer.


With all due respect to Andy Williams, the best time of the year occurs not in December, but June. School is out, the sun is shining, the MLB Draft was last week, and (most importantly) the NCAA playoffs are in full swing. Over the weekend, eight teams clinched a berth to the College World Series, which kicks off Saturday.

Bracket 1
TCU
Florida State
UCLA
Florida

Bracket 2
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Arizona State
Clemson


There has been little consensus this season in college baseball. Virginia and Texas were seen as two possible favorites, but both of those heavyweights were toppled in the Super Regional round. Most were also surprised to see Coastal Carolina, Louisville, and Cal State Fullerton go down. Each of the teams remaining has its weaknesses, and we could be in for a wild tournament. This is also the last year for Rosenblatt Stadium, the host of the CWS since 1950.

It is tough to know what to expect in the College World Series. Nearly anything can happen in the postseason, especially in the volatile hands of metal bats and the environment of the college game. Nonetheless, I will offer some fearless predictions:

Final
Arizona State over Florida in 3 games

The Sun Devils (52-8) have had an incredible season, but they are not perfect. Starting pitchers Seth Blair, Merrill Kelly, and Jake Borup typically keep their team in the game, but none posted a FIP below 4.40 this season. I could certainly see a situation in which opposing clubs batter the ASU starters in Omaha. The Devils also have only one player with more than 10 home runs this season. With that said, ASU is ridiculously deep and talented and I loved what I saw from them in March. The Sun Devils hit .338/.436/.539 with 314 walks as a team. From Riccio Torrez to Johnny Ruettiger to Kole Calhoun to Zach Wilson to Drew Maggi to Zack MacPhee (all of whom wield a .400+ wOBA), their offense has droves of patient hitters with dangerous sticks. The Sun Devils are relentless and rarely have problems putting runs up. They also have four shut-down relievers (Jordan Swagerty, Mitchell Lambson, Jake Barrett, and Brady Rodgers) and their defensive unit is very athletic and versatile.
If ASU's starting pitchers falter, they could be knocked out quickly. With their talented roster and experience from last season's Omaha trip, however, I'll give the Devils the slight edge in this field. Florida (47-15) has a spectacular team and lost just one (!) weekend series all season. Preston Tucker, Matt den Dekker, Austin Maddox, et al. are dynamite position players, while studs such as Alex Panteliodis, Hudson Randall, and Kevin Chapman give UF a formidable arms corps. For now, I'll wait until 2011 to label them as my championship pick.

Darkhorse
TCU

The Horned Frogs (51-12) have played incredible baseball all season long. Series wins at Cal State Fullerton and Texas highlight their resume. TCU is also one of the more complete teams in the field of eight, with talented hitters, pitchers, defenders, and bullpen options. Although they are making their first trek to the CWS, the Horned Frogs have absolutely no underdog status. Don't be shocked if Freshman of the Year candidate Matt Purke has a coming-out party in Omaha (see below), the crowd rallies behind the Omaha newcomers, and TCU's wealth of talented players (including Kyle Winkler, Bryan Holaday, Matt Curry, Jason Coats, and Taylor Featherston) carries the Frogs deep into the tourney.

Breakout Stars
Omaha is a perfect time for young players to have a coming-out party on the national stage. Hardcore college baseball fans may already know them as household names, but there will inevitably be some players (think UVa.'s Keith Werman last year and Fresno State's Danny Muno in 2008) who star at the CWS and raise their fame. After all, there will be many more mainstream fans watching on ESPN in June than there are devouring box scores in February. Here are a few freshman who could potentially burst onto the national scene with good showings at The Blatt.

Matt Purke, TCU
Not too often does a 1st-round pick turn down pro ball and make his way to college. Almost never, in fact. Purke did just that, though, and he hasn't disappointed in his initial campaign in Fort Worth. The electric 6'4 lefty posted a 2.19 FIP while punching out 133 and walking 28 in 103 IP, positioning himself to be a top-5 pick for next year. I could easily see Purke shutting down FSU in Game 1. Though he is one of the most dominant hurlers in the nation, he looks goofy on the mound, rocking goggles and a crooked, flat-brimmed hat. That could make Purke a fan favorite.

Deven Marrero, ASU
An unsigned 2009 17th-rounder out of American Heritage High in Florida, Marrero showed up in Tempe with high expectations. The exciting young shortstop has exceeded them, having won a starting job for the Sun Devils. Marrero is hitting .392/.439/.628 on the year.

Nolan Fontana, Florida
Fontana is about as polished as they come. The frosh shortstop has committed just three errors all season, and he's maintained a 49-28 BB-K ratio as the Gators' leadoff batter. His steady play should get noticed in Omaha.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., South Carolina
Okay, Bradley isn't a freshman. Still, the Gamecocks did not reach the CWS last year, and most fans do not know the sophomore star. Bradley is hitting .371/.477/.587 with a 38-31 BB-K ratio and 11 home runs. The 5'10 outfielder could make his name known with a big tournament.

Jeff Gelalich and Beau Amaral, UCLA
UCLA has a pair of dynamic starting freshman outfielders in Gelalich and Amaral. Both have speed and promising lefty swings. They are my picks to click, and will play important roles for the Bruins in Omaha.

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